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» Futures: UCLA QB Brett Hundley

Beyond the immediate considerations of Hundley's potential, the quarterback's tape raises larger questions about the position.

26 Apr 2012

Walkthrough: Draft Blender

by Mike Tanier

Draft day is Take Your Child to Work Day. Someone get Janoris Jenkins an SUV!

Oh, let’s not single Jenkins out. Trent Richardson already has two children. I do not think Brandon Weeden has kids; if he does, they may be old enough to babysit mine!

This happened last year, as well, I think. It is one of the occupational hazards of moving the draft to an April Thursday: it may butt against Take Your Child to Work Day. Unlike Mike Shanahan, I cannot take my sons to work, though the press area would be much more interesting if there were a bunch of tykes running about. With all of that video gaming knowledge, maybe the kids could make the Internet work better.

I will be on a train to New York when this posts, and my sons will be with my wife, because it makes sense to pull them out of a classroom for a day so they can spend a day in the classroom. This week is draft-crunch week, so Walkthrough is a little crunchy, which does not mean there is nothing to talk about.

Some final draft notes

My top-five quarterbacks: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, somebody, somebody.

I would only draft Brandon Weeden if I wanted someone my own age to go out for beers with.

Tannehill needs two years of camps and preseason action to learn to do things like find a secondary receiver (or any receiver not named Jeff Fuller), and to not pat the ball every single time he throws more than five yards downfield. He will be very good if he isn’t tossed into the lineup by some team with no weapons and told to "become a franchise quarterback." But alas, take a look at the teams most interested in him. The Eagles rumor fizzled out. Philly would have been a great landing place for Tannehill.

The only other quarterback I would draft is Russell Wilson of Wisconsin, but not as a starter. Teams like the Packers or Steelers should look at him as a designated backup, a "spark off the bench" guy. Come to think of it, he would be the perfect Ben Roethlisberger back up. He would start one or two games per year, run around acting intense and leading field goal drives, win some 19-10 games, then return to the bench before anyone discovered his limitations.

My top defensive tackles: Fletcher Cox, Brandon Thompson, Michael Brockers, Dontari Poe, Devon Still, Jerel Worthy.

Poe sets off my Junior Siavii alarm. You have a Siavii alarm too, right? Some call it Siavii-dar. Huge man lifts a million tons at the Combine, shoots up the draft board, gets picked too soon, isn’t very good. Poe’s tape is so incredibly uninteresting that it is hard to get pumped up about him after watching Brockers go bronkers and Worthy jump the snap count so effectively that it looks like he left on Friday.

That said, Phil Taylor didn’t do much for me last year, and look at him.

Running backs: Doug Martin is not that far below Trent Richardson. Martin is a tremendous finisher. Chris Polk has everything but speed. We talked about William Andrews last week: Polk is an Andrews type. He is not in Andrews’ class, and offenses have changed, but he is an ace back who can run 20 counter treys per game and catch the ball. There aren’t many teams looking for that now. Maybe the Niners, or the Packers. For the Packers, Polk could be the player they thought Brandon Jackson was going to be.

Friday night will be a fun night for running backs. There is going to be a run on Polk-types in that second round.

My top-five tight ends: Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, Orson Charles, draft another position instead, draft another position instead. The Senior Bowl ruined me for tight ends. The best one in Mobile was probably DeAngelo Peterson, who looked like Jermichael Finley during post-practice interviews but played like one of those guys teams draft in hope of finding "the next Jermichael Finley" during sessions.

Charles is the best "real" tight end, for those of you who are traditionalists from 1973. The Ravens, Giants, and other teams use "real" tight ends, so there is still a call for the services of a guy who lines up next to the right tackle and, you know, blocks occasionally. Allen and Fleener block well enough for current NFL offenses. Allen has a lot of experience going in motion on Wildcat type plays. The Jets and Bills should take a long look. He may be around in the middle of the second round.

This rant does not fit anywhere else, but Charles is famous for shattering the NCAA Championship trophy during a visit to Florida a few years ago. Another NCAA trophy was smashed last week, by some parents taking a tour at University of Alabama. That is going to happen when your trophy is CRYSTAL WITH A ROUNDED BOTTOM. It’s fragile, but it makes up for it by being impossible to easily support. It is usually helped up by what look like three toothpicks of different sizes.

Only the NCAA would think that the best thing for a bunch of sweaty, tired teenagers to gambol around the field with after a championship is an incredibly delicate item that mimics the size and shape of the item they throw and kick for fun and (future) profit. It’s symbolic. The crystal represents purity, the fact that it shatters every few years represent reality, and the rounded base represents something that cannot stand on its own, like the 19th century notion of amateurism.

My top five wide receivers: Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Alshon Jeffery, and I don’t know. Mohamed Sanu's tape puzzles me because it is a hundred tunnel screens. Rueben Randle ... please don’t make me watch the LSU offense; I swear I will be good. Stephen Hill plays in the flexbone, so I will punt. Maybe the Jets should draft him.

There are lots and lots of halfway decent receivers. Joe Adams of Arkansas is going to be available in the middle rounds, and he has great quickness and moves. He could be a fine slot guy. Juron Criner is more of an on-the-line receiver: big, smart, can snatch the ball, fast enough. He’s going to be on the board on Saturday. I have no idea about Brian Quick. In Mobile, he looked like his head was spinning, but he is big, fast, gets high marks for effort, and people who have seen good tape of him (I am not swimming in Appalachian State footage here) like him. He will be on the board Saturday. Jeff Fuller ... good heavens, if he could hang onto the ball a little better.

Pass rushers: The guy I like this year is Chandler Jones of Syracuse. The sack totals are not great, but he can beat a blocker with hand fighting while staying in his lane, and he is very athletic.

Sack totals are becoming a boondoggle at the NCAA level. Spread offenses with twenty tunnel screens per game do not leave pass rushers with many opportunities. Spread-option offenses turn quarterbacks into runners, and while it is not hard to find tackle-for-loss data for defenders, top lineman probably have lots of quarterback tackles for one-yard gains. Alan Branch had four sacks against Virginia Tech, but the poor kid blocking him looked like someone who just walked onto campus the previous Tuesday. There is a lot of talent at defensive end and linebacker, but there is every year, and I am starting to wonder what teams are putting a high premium on.

Kickers and punters: Anyone who drafts a specialist this year is completely nutty.

Some Shout Outs

The site NFL Draft Breakdown does something absolutely tremendous: They post dozens and dozens of cutups of prospects. Good cutups. Not highlight reels to a rap beat. Whole games, cut into five-to-12 minute clips, usually with a helpful box around the key player.

Between Draft Breakdown and some other dedicated souls around the web, you might be able to find three or four cutups of the top 50-75 prospects. Since many of the top prospects might play for a school like Alabama, you can use one player’s cutup to watch another player: Courtney Upshaw can be scouted from Mark Barron’s tape. Mix in some taped big games and bowl games from the DVR, some other video available from not-too-illegal sources, and consultations with the good experts around the web, and you can get tons of footage and info on a player without having to go to Mobile or Indy.

So this is game-changing material, and it is all free. I met Mike Daneshgar of Draft Breakdown down in Mobile, and it was clear that scouting is a labor of love for these guys: they hustle and do their homework.

After your favorite team drafts, head to their site and search for your new player. In the first and second round, you are likely to find at least two cutups. The late round guys might have something, too. Watch it all, and you will be ten times more informed than the morning sportstalk guy who is complaining about the pick.

Oh, and let’s not forget Ourlads. I don’t get there much for scouting, but their depth charts are indispensible this time of year. See, you lose track of all the transactions made by a team like the Chiefs. You can find a "comings and goings" list, but if you don’t have detailed knowledge of the Chiefs roster, that can be confusing and misleading. And not many sites are updating their depth charts in mid April.

Ah, but Ourlads does! And they mark new acquisitions with a red font. So you can see Stanford Routt penciled in as a starting cornerback, Peyton Hillis at running back, and Eric Winston at right tackle. Then use that knowledge for an at-a-glance decision that the Chiefs need a cornerback and running back, but not a right tackle, in the draft. Thanks guys!

Credit where credit is due. Depth charts don’t come from nowhere, nor do cutups or high quality scouting reports. These sites make my life easier. Give them a look.

Announcements

I will be on the New York Times Fifth Down Blog all night for the first round of the draft. If you did not catch Judy Battista and I talking draft on that video conference hangout thing, check it out! We are scheduled to do another one next Monday. Check Extra Points for times.

I plan to be here with the gang on Cover it Live on Friday night for a live chat. Last year I could not make it, because ... well, the lockout ended, then it started again, then I went to an NFLPA event which was all screwed up because no one knew the lockout status, then I took a train home and got really drunk because I was looking ahead to an indeterminate period of football-less ultra-marginal employment. But hey, that won’t happen this year, and I want to stop by the chat room and see you guys!

The crew will be here doing Cover it Live on Thursday, of course, so please join them; you can follow me by keeping both windows open.

Saturday is the town classic car show. I plan to eat funnel cake with my children. You should do something fun, too. All of the picks will be on the Internet when you get home. Years ago, I did "instant analysis" for the third round, when it was still part of the first day of the draft. And you know what? It was silly. Give me two or three days to review the scouting reports, watch some tape at Breakdown, correlate the picks with the Ourlads scouting report, and digest everything, and I will give you an informative interpretation of what a team did, and why. Give me five minutes, and you will get a canned response and a guess.

Anyone willing to pay me for canned responses and guesses can email me, of course. But not this year. Classic cars and funnel cake.

Carolina Panthers Top Five Running Backs

Let’s blast out an expansion team while we are all distracted by draft weekend.

1. DeAngelo Williams

Williams led the league in DYAR in 2008 and is regularly a DVOA darling. He still averages over five yards per carry after almost 1,000 carries. He is an overshadowed player: a committee back (usually) for a small market team that has had some rough seasons, whose biggest stars are a young quarterback and a veteran wide receiver. Someone should start an appreciation society.

2. Jonathan Stewart

It doesn’t seem right that the two best Panthers running backs, after 17 years of history, share the backfield during a just-ending down phase for the franchise. But Williams and Stewart are the two all-time leading rushers, and it is hard to advocate for any of the others on this list to be in second place.

3. Stephen Davis

Great in 2003. His other best seasons were with the Redskins.

4. DeShaun Foster

DVOA hated Foster, who always ended the season with about 850 yards. Foster was intermittently exciting, and would slash and break tackles for a game or two, but then he would suffer some nagging injury or have a 16-carry, 23-yard game that made you wonder why he was out there. Foster lives on as Knowshon Moreno.

5. Brad Hoover

One of the Panthers For Life, a group of role players John Fox kept fielding year after year, with ever-diminishing results. Hoover was a very good, versatile, all-purpose fullback from 2000 until 2005. Then he lost his rushing value, and most of his receiving value, and he became the kind of fullback who is best used in a 20-snap role, though he probably played closer to 40 snaps in many games. Fox kept Nick Goings around for years too, and Goings had a similar skill set, because you cannot have too many all-purpose fullbacks who are not much good at any one thing when DeShaun Foster is your featured back.

Enjoy the draft, folks!

Posted by: Mike Tanier on 26 Apr 2012

55 comments, Last at 01 May 2012, 12:03pm by Kwame

Comments

1
by ebongreen :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 10:48am

What - no Tim Biakabutuka? He needs to be on this list for his name alone! He can't beat out Brad Hoover? ;-)

9
by Shattenjager :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:28pm

I agree, especially if you use his full first name: Tshimanga.

2
by dk240t :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 10:53am

"It’s symbolic. The crystal represents purity, the fact that it shatters every few years represent reality, and the rounded base represents something that cannot stand on its own, like the 19th century notion of amateurism."

That is one of the most brilliant things I've read in this column.

20
by Theo :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 1:33pm

I read this comment before I read the column and for a moment really thought it was about those purity rings that South Park made an episode about.

3
by BroncosGuyAgain :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 10:56am

And a quiet remembrance of Fred Lane.

4
by Dean :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 11:08am

So time to get put on the spot, Mike.

We know that the Eagles every year do something that looks painfully obvious in hindsight but that nobody predicts. We know it won't be a linebacker. We know there's a very good chance it's a lineman. We know there's a very good chance it won't be pick 15 when it's all said and done.

So what do your Eagles do in the first round?

25
by Kevin from Philly :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 2:24pm

I predict pain. Mine.

44
by Dean :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 6:04pm

THe pain is now. There are not one but TWO Game 7's tonight, PLUS the NFL draft. So, of course, the local ESPN Radio affiliate is blathering about baseball.

35
by chemical burn :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 3:36pm

It's just going to be a DE that doesn't pan out or a CB/S hybrid that can't/shouldn't get on the field. They're amassing quite a collection of them.

36
by Dean :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 4:07pm

It's never that obvious. I'm guessing they go SLIGHTLY outside their usual pattern by trading down and then taking a TE. Granted, that has all the inside information of a dartboard, but I could look brilliant in a few hours. Well, maybe not brilliant.

43
by chemical burn :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 5:09pm

That's funny - TE was actually my first non-jokey choice to that answer! But that seems crazy even by the standards of "what crazy thing will they do!" Celek and Harbor are both pretty darn good.

49
by Dean :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 9:12pm

Well, that shows what I know.

50
by chemical burn :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 9:31pm

Jesus christ, a DT? Literally the one position where they couldn't upgrade. They now have 5 starting claiber DT's on the roster. If they put Cox on the field with Babin and Jenkins they can have a line of undisciplined pass-rushers who are terrible against the run. What a load of garbage this pick is, Get ready for their run defense to be even worse than 2011, if they try to get Cox on the field as a starter...

5
by raorao (not verified) :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 11:18am

" Mohamed Sanu's tape puzzles me because it is a hundred tunnel screens."

BUT IT WAS A PRO-STYLE OFFENSE.

6
by tuluse :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 11:30am

I think ourlads would get a lot more traffic if it didn't look like a geocites page from 1999.

7
by big_jgke :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 11:49am

Also, I can imagine a site called 'our lads' would get a lot of hits from people looking for something other than depth charts...

11
by drobviousso :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:30pm

/tight end joke

23
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 2:03pm

/slot receiver joke

29
by dryheat :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 2:43pm

/penis inside man joke

42
by bubqr :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 5:03pm

Those last 4 comments made my day.

8
by NCjeff (not verified) :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:00pm

Also overshadowed: Williams is part of the reason the NFL wears pink everything for a month. Four of his aunts died from breast cancer, and his mom survived it while he was in college, so he asked the league about beefing up pink equipment.

10
by Dan :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:29pm

Kickers and punters: Anyone who drafts a specialist this year is completely nutty.

Bryan Anger.

19
by Theo :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 1:32pm

Isn't the number of Kickers and Punters taken in a draft proportional with the number of kickers who retire?
Talent has nothing to do with it. It's a damn kicker!

12
by Shattenjager :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:38pm

I wondered, because I knew that the list of running backs who averaged at least 5 ypc with at least 250 carries is small (http://pfref.com/tiny/myd1F), how many guys have more carries than DeAngelo Williams while still averaging 5 ypc. The answer is two, Jim Brown and Joe Perry: http://pfref.com/tiny/crwIH.

Just thought that was interesting and so I would share it.

24
by Karl Cuba :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 2:03pm

I have thought for a long time that Joe Perry is one of the most underrated runners in NFL history. He should at least get a mention when people run off lists of the all time great backs but he never does.

30
by dryheat :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 2:45pm

Really an underrated guitarist as well, although I'm not a big fan of the music.

32
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 2:54pm

Perry's problem is that although he's perhaps the 3rd best RB of the 1950s, he'd also be the Cleveland Browns' 3rd best RB of the 1950s -- overshadowed by Motley coming and Brown going.

13
by dmstorm22 :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:54pm

I would draft Weeden. Certainly not as high as he will inevitably be drafted, but there is value to someone who could give you five or six decent seasons. Kurt Warner essentially never played NFL football until his Age 28 season. Of course, he's the high mark, but there is value there. His body is not 28 in NFL terms either, with no hits on him (which is different than Warner).

38
by justanothersteve :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 4:35pm

Warner had been an NFL backup for a year and had also starred in both the Arena League and NFL Europe before he started an NFL game. He was more NFL ready in 1999 than Weeden is today. Weeden may be a better prospect than Weinke (who was only 26 when drafted) or John Beck (also 26). But that's not a tough bar to beat.

40
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 4:54pm

If you're a reasonably immobile QB, does your age at NFL entry matter that much? QBs seem durable into their late 30s if their mileage isn't too high, and even a long NFL career isn't much north of 10 years for a position player. I wouldn't think 29 years old would be a severe impediment.

41
by tuluse :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 5:02pm

It matters because such a QB had a huge advantage over the 18 year olds that he was competing with that's going to immediately vanish.

He's already at an age where he should be in his peak in the NFL, and he's not even better than many QBs 7 years younger than him. He's room for growth is much lower.

45
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 6:19pm

And yet, Jason Pierre-Paul.

47
by tuluse :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 6:58pm

I don't follow.

51
by Eddy (not verified) :: Fri, 04/27/2012 - 3:41am

Weeden didn't exactly play the last 8 years on a football team remember. He's been a professional before, and there were no red flags coming out of his baseball experience other than he might have enjoyed football more.

53
by Intropy :: Fri, 04/27/2012 - 4:11am

And a few injuries to his throwing shoulder.

14
by BigWoody (not verified) :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:59pm

TV coverage of the 1st round starts at 8 ET/5 PT. Does anyone know/guess what time the 1st pick is due. Then it's 10 min. between picks. I'm on Pacific time and have a slight work timing issue but want to be in front of the TV for the 4th pick.

16
by sjt (not verified) :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 1:05pm

Depends. The pick has been essentially made, so Goodell could just walk up and announce it right away to move things along. Second pick won't take long either. If you want to be there for pick 4 I'd suggest you find a TV by 5:25.

26
by BigWoody (not verified) :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 2:32pm

So they get right down to business? There's no talking heads balderdash and a dozen inane commercials to start? I can't remember from last year. Old-timer's disease.

34
by sjt (not verified) :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 3:19pm

They be plenty of blabbing in the lead up (its probably on right now). But the actual draft starts at 5. The commish will come out to start things off within a minute or two of 5. I suspect the first 2 picks won't take more than 10 minutes total. Pick 3 might take the full 10.

37
by Dean :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 4:09pm

My guess is that ESPN will have arranged for the first half dozen or so picks to take the full 10 minutes even though the teams know their picks already just so that they can squeeze in an hours worth of hype. The really pathetic part is that i will watch anyway.

15
by sjt (not verified) :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 1:03pm

The crystal represents purity, the fact that it shatters every few years represent reality, and the rounded base represents something that cannot stand on its own, like the 19th century notion of amateurism.

That's a wonderful sentence.

Also, should teams just skip selecting DBs this year?

17
by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 1:09pm

Will watxh part of draft. More itnerested in watching Bibcats break ineptness record NBA. Will watch part of that becususe do not want to fall asleep before 11. Will also watch maybe 2 minutes of NY hickey gamr and some of NJ hockey game. Pit draft on here and thete. Watch mlb netweork for mlb scores anf action. Very good channel.mucj better than nfl network. Gerat night for sports

22
by CraigoMc (not verified) :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 1:54pm

I'm sure you could find some Australian football or professional lacrosse if you look hard enough, Joe.

28
by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 2:40pm

Would watch footy if on and drunk.

Only watch hockey two to three mknutes per season. Those minutes might be tonight.

18
by Ryan D. :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 1:16pm

Not even an honorable mention for Anthony Johnson (non-MMA edition)? He was the original plow-into-the-line for under 4 ypc back that set the mold for all future Panthers backs. He was also their first 1000-yard running back.

21
by Drunkmonkey :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 1:37pm

Every time I read, or hear, DeShaun Foster's name, I want to bang my head into the wall.

DESHAUN FOSTER WAS DRAFTED BEFORE CLINTON FREAKING PORTIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

27
by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 2:39pm

Foster at leats played in SB. Portis loser with Bronics and Redskins. Pffffffft.

31
by ebongreen :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 2:49pm

Bronics? If only there were an NFL team named the Bronys. *tee hee*

33
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 2:55pm

Peyton Manning has functionally played for the Bronys.

39
by CeeBee (not verified) :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 4:38pm

Coincidentially, Peyton Manning's BRO plays for the NYs.

46
by George (not verified) :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 6:33pm

Take it from a lifetime Panthers fan, Tim Biakabituka was much better than Foster. If you're evaluating "running backs" as a separate category from fullbacks then Anthony Johnson deserves to be in over Hoover as well.

48
by justanothersteve :: Thu, 04/26/2012 - 8:38pm

Hoover was a one-game wonder. I know. His one great game was against the Packers on a Monday night game. Big bummer when your team is beaten by the team's #4 RB whose name is better known as the president of Delta house.

54
by nuclearbdgr :: Mon, 04/30/2012 - 7:37pm

and was forever known as 'Frickin' Brad Hoover' by me and several of my fellow Packer fans.

52
by eddy (not verified) :: Fri, 04/27/2012 - 3:45am

It is odd you think the Chiefs draft a back. Mcluster was overmatched but not wholly unbearable on a severely limited offense. Charles was injured, and AP is on track for a recovery by season start. Hillis is one year removed from a dominant year (at times, once again an ineffective team. How many bad team have sterling RB's? See: Marchawn Lynch after leaving the Bills, the relative monotony of Frank Gore, and MJD.) and had 2 stats worthy years in the Bronco running game. So, no I think RB is off the list.

55
by Kwame (not verified) :: Tue, 05/01/2012 - 12:03pm

"Anyone who drafts a specialist this year is nutty" Then 6 specialists get drafted(4 kicker 2 punters), including one in the 3rd round.