DVOA Playoff Odds Report

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIII
1 13.8% 6 5.6% 11 2.6%
2 13.4% 7 5.2% 12 2.5%
3 7.9% 8 5.1% 13 2.3%
4 7.2% 9 3.1% 14 2.0%
5 5.7% 10 2.6% 15 2.0%
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from Football Outsiders Almanac 2018

Recent Articles

Ramblings

2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated
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2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated

The players going too high in fantasy drafts this year generally have one thing in common: risk. Remember, everyone, that old players tend to decline; injured players don't always return to health; suspensions can be a red flag; and success in small sample sizes can be misleading.

7 comments, Last at 14 Aug 2018, 10:30am by nat

Ramblings

Paul, Vince, and Me
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Paul, Vince, and Me

In this selection from his memoir, veteran sportswriter Edward Hershey tells of his time spent with coaching legends Paul Brown and Vince Lombardi in the summer of 1968, as Brown was saying hello to Cincinnati and Lombardi was saying goodbye to Green Bay.

5 comments, Last at 13 Aug 2018, 10:54am by barf

Stat Analysis

FO Mailbag: Does Defense Dip Down in December?
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FO Mailbag: Does Defense Dip Down in December?

A question from a reader has us diving into week-by-week DVOA splits, looking at how both run and pass defense change over the course of the year. Is wear and tear to blame for defensive declines, or does Old Man Winter have something to say?

13 comments, Last at 10 Aug 2018, 3:17pm by Sixknots

Podcasts

Aaron Schatz on Power Rank Podcast
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Aaron Schatz on Power Rank Podcast

It's another podcast appearance promoting Football Outsiders Almanac 2018! Here I am with Ed Feng on the Football Analytics Show from his website powerrank.com. We discuss the basics of DVOA, how to deal with small sample size with Jimmy Garoppolo and Deshaun Watson, and why our Indianapolis projection is higher than our Jacksonville projection for 2018.

Scramble

Scramble: 2018 West Over/Unders
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Scramble: 2018 West Over/Unders

Bryan and Andrew are back, whether you like it or not! The 2018 Scramble season starts off with a trip out West, where the boys try to understand the Chargers curse, the Seahawks' offseason philosophy, and Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo.

17 comments, Last at 13 Aug 2018, 2:13pm by Will Allen

Recent Articles

Extra Points

SITE NEWS: Design Refresh

We’re excited to unveil our new website design with the goal of improving your user experience. Here's what you can expect...

94 comments, Last at 11 Aug 2018, 3:27pm by fyo

Stat Analysis

2017 Slot vs. Wide: Defense
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2017 Slot vs. Wide: Defense

The Jaguars went from last to first in DVOA on wide targets after adding A.J. Bouye. How will other teams fare in 2018 after the movements of Richard Sherman, Patrick Robinson, and Tyrann Mathieu?

FO on ESPN: Feature Columns

ESPN: Ranking Under-25 Talent of All 32 NFL Teams
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ESPN: Ranking Under-25 Talent of All 32 NFL Teams

It's time for our annual ESPN Insider look at the under-25 talent on all 32 NFL teams, ranked from the most talent (Rams at No. 1) to the least (Patriots at No. 32). The under-25 talent is a focus on the building blocks teams are putting in place that should help define the next four to eight seasons, if not longer -- if the teams are fortunate.

Stat Analysis

Predicting the 2019 Hall of Fame Class
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Predicting the 2019 Hall of Fame Class

Our 2019 Pro Football Hall of Fame predictions find three first-ballot locks. Is Tony Gonzalez the greatest tight end of all time? Also: Ed Reed's brilliance, a crazy trade for a running back, and what do we do about London Fletcher and Asante Samuel?

40 comments, Last at 09 Aug 2018, 1:29pm by Steve B

FO on ESPN: Feature Columns

ESPN: FO's Top 25 Prospects 2018
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ESPN: FO's Top 25 Prospects 2018

Time for the annual FO Top 25 Prospects list, as also seen in Football Outsiders Almanac 2018. This is our list of lower-drafted and undrafted prospects who are still developing in their second, third, and fourth seasons. The 2018 list is heavy on wide receivers, but the top spot belongs to an edge rusher: Carl Lawson of the Bengals.