DVOA Playoff Odds Report

Make Playoffs Win Super Bowl Earn No. 1 Pick
199.99% 134.1% 154.5%
299.97% 222.3% 219.2%
399.1% 311.8% 313.5%
493.6% 48.1% 43.8%
592.3% 56.2% 53.7%
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through Week 10

Recent Articles

Open Discussion

Week 11 Open Game Discussion
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Week 11 Open Game Discussion

The last time the Packers visited Seattle, a berth in the Super Bowl at stake. The stakes aren't quite as high on Thursday night, but the loser is still going to be in dire straights in a crowded NFC playoff race. Other big games this weekend include Houston-Washington, Minnesota-Chicago on Sunday night, and this year's Game of the Century, the Chiefs facing the Rams in Mexico City Los Angeles. Use this thread to discuss them all.

49 comments, Last at 16 Nov 2018, 6:44pm by Joe Pancake

Week in Quotes

The Week in Quotes: November 16, 2018
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The Week in Quotes: November 16, 2018

This week: vengeance, abandonment, danger, lip syncing, moustaches, sad farewells, petty theft, undying hope, strange decisions to punt, and ketchup.

5 comments, Last at 17 Nov 2018, 12:26pm by tuluse

Word Of Muth

Word of Muth: Farewell, 49ers
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Word of Muth: Farewell, 49ers

San Francisco has fallen out of the playoff race, which means this will be the last time they appear in Word of Muth this year -- which is too bad, because between scheme, talent, and execution, they were one of the better offensive lines in the league this season.

3 comments, Last at 17 Nov 2018, 2:17pm by mrt1212

FO on ESPN: Feature Columns

ESPN: Midseason Top 25 Prospects
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ESPN: Midseason Top 25 Prospects

It's time for our semiannual list of Top 25 Prospects: lower-round and undrafted players who we think can make an impact in the next few seasons. This midseason list is led by Maurice Hurst of the Raiders and also includes the likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Phillp Lindsay along with two Houston Texans in the top five.

Clutch Encounters

Clutch Encounters: GB-SEA
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Clutch Encounters: GB-SEA

The Packers and Seahawks bring drama back to Thursday Night Football. Were those really catches by the Seahawks, and what are these numbers that Mike McCarthy is going by to punt the ball away with one timeout?

26 comments, Last at 17 Nov 2018, 2:19pm by Will Allen

Recent Articles

Stat Analysis

Introducing Total Points
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Introducing Total Points

Alex Vigderman of Sports Info Solutions introduces Total Points, a tool for player evaluation. Like DVOA, it starts with play-by-play data, but then it adds charting information to more accurately measure the contributions of each player on the field. And it will tell you that Matt Ryan has been the NFL's best quarterback for several years now.

4 comments, Last at 17 Nov 2018, 3:27pm by mrt1212

FO on ESPN: Upset Watch

ESPN Upset Watch: Vikings-Bears
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ESPN Upset Watch: Vikings-Bears

Chicago is the better team by DVOA, but Minnesota is coming off the bye week and gets Stefon Diggs back. At ESPN+ Chalk, we look at what the Vikings need to do in order to upset the Bears in an important NFC North meeting. Cover Watch looks at the Monday Chiefs-Rams game.

2 comments, Last at 16 Nov 2018, 10:49am by andrew

7th Day Adventure

Seventh Day Adventure: Week 12
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Seventh Day Adventure: Week 12

Hope you have access to the Longhorn Network; it's the only place to watch Hakeem Butler and the Iowa State Cyclones take on Texas in a key Big 12 matchup that's the most important game of the week. Other key games include Notre Dame-Syracuse, West Virginia-Oklahoma State, and Central Florida-Cincinnati.

Film Room

Film Room: Kansas City Offense
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Film Room: Kansas City Offense

The Chiefs are the NFL's highest-scoring team, but they're not perfect. Derrik Klassen shows how the Arizona Cardinals used press coverage and unorthodox blitz packages to frustrate Patrick Mahomes and company -- and explains why it still wasn't enough in the end.

3 comments, Last at 16 Nov 2018, 12:32am by alan frankel

Podcasts

Off The Charts Podcast: November 14
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Off The Charts Podcast: November 14

A special early Off The Charts podcast looks asks how much of a win the Le'Veon Bell situation has been for "running backs don't matter" Twitter. Then previews of this week's great prime-time games: Packers at Seahawks, Vikings at Bears, and Chiefs at Rams. (Click for audio link.)

FEI Ratings

FEI Week 11 Ratings and Elite Win Margin
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FEI Week 11 Ratings and Elite Win Margin

McKenzie Milton and the Central Florida Knights are undefeated -- but did the College Football Playoff committee hand them a loss before the season even started? Brian Fremeau examines strength of schedule and what it says about Group of 5 schools in the rankings.

Scramble

Scramble for the Ball: Three and Out
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Scramble for the Ball: Three and Out

Could the NFL really lose all its players and bounce back in just three years? Bryan and Andrew debate the hottest of hot takes from one of the great sports statisticians.

17 comments, Last at 16 Nov 2018, 10:55am by jtr