DVOA Playoff Odds Report

Make Playoffs Win Super Bowl Earn No. 1 Pick
199.99% 134.1% 154.5%
299.97% 222.3% 219.2%
399.1% 311.8% 313.5%
493.6% 48.1% 43.8%
592.3% 56.2% 53.7%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!
through Week 10

Recent Articles

Film Room

Film Room: Kansas City Offense
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Film Room: Kansas City Offense

The Chiefs are the NFL's highest-scoring team, but they're not perfect. Derrik Klassen shows how the Arizona Cardinals used press coverage and unorthodox blitz packages to frustrate Patrick Mahomes and company -- and explains why it still wasn't enough in the end.

1 comment, Last at 15 Nov 2018, 3:02pm by alan frankel

Podcasts

Off The Charts Podcast: November 14
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Off The Charts Podcast: November 14

A special early Off The Charts podcast looks asks how much of a win the Le'Veon Bell situation has been for "running backs don't matter" Twitter. Then previews of this week's great prime-time games: Packers at Seahawks, Vikings at Bears, and Chiefs at Rams. (Click for audio link.)

FEI Ratings

FEI Week 11 Ratings and Elite Win Margin
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

FEI Week 11 Ratings and Elite Win Margin

McKenzie Milton and the Central Florida Knights are undefeated -- but did the College Football Playoff committee hand them a loss before the season even started? Brian Fremeau examines strength of schedule and what it says about Group of 5 schools in the rankings.

Scramble

Scramble for the Ball: Three and Out
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Scramble for the Ball: Three and Out

Could the NFL really lose all its players and bounce back in just three years? Bryan and Andrew debate the hottest of hot takes from one of the great sports statisticians.

13 comments, Last at 15 Nov 2018, 2:15pm by theslothook

FO on ESPN: Feature Columns

ESPN: Playoff Bets to Make Right Now
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

ESPN: Playoff Bets to Make Right Now

A new column for ESPN+ Chalk with a review of teams where that Football Outsiders odds show value compared to consensus Las Vegas odds. Teams highlighted include Washington, Kansas City, and Chicago.

Recent Articles

DVOA Ratings

Week 10 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Big wins mean big movement in our DVOA ratings, with Pittsburgh jumping up from 11th to fifth and big moves for Green Bay, Tennessee, and Buffalo as well. We also explore the history of the DVOA Bowl as No. 1 prepares to meet No. 2, and jump into the workings of DVOA to try to figure out why New Orleans doesn't rank higher in our metric.

54 comments, Last at 15 Nov 2018, 3:22pm by Richie

Clutch Encounters

Clutch Encounters: Week 10
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Clutch Encounters: Week 10

Is time just a flat circle in the NFC East? Jason Garrett ends another short losing streak and the Eagles fail to close again. Also: Rams sweep Seattle, the Giants distance themselves from the No. 1 pick, and the final nail in Jacksonville's coffin is not a Blake Bortles turnover.

4 comments, Last at 13 Nov 2018, 8:33pm by Scott Kacsmar

Any Given Sunday

Any Given Sunday: Titans over Patriots
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Any Given Sunday: Titans over Patriots

Tom Brady and the New England offense are taking on some water. Is this the end of the line, or one of those many ends of the line you've heard about before that wasn't actually the end of the line? And what got into Tennessee's passing offense after the bye?

1 comment, Last at 13 Nov 2018, 4:36pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin

Quick Reads

Week 10 Quick Reads
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Week 10 Quick Reads

Ben Roethlisberger's thrashing of Carolina was the best game of the week -- but not, surprisingly, the best game of the year. We explain and look at the best and worst quarterback games since 1989. Plus the best passers, runners, and receivers of Week 10.

96 comments, Last at 14 Nov 2018, 10:29pm by dryheat

One Foot Inbounds

OFI: A Static Top 10 in Week 11
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

OFI: A Static Top 10 in Week 11

Everyone in the top ten won this week, with only LSU and Oklahoma winning close games. This season could use a shake-up or two at the top, as the preseason favorites have more or less stayed that way.

Extra Points

Injury Aftermath: Week 10
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Injury Aftermath: Week 10

Two more ACL injuries mean two more players are lost for the season. We have the latest injury news from Week 10's games.

5 comments, Last at 15 Nov 2018, 6:13am by Megamanic

Extra Points

Top Potential NFL Head Coach Candidates
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Top Potential NFL Head Coach Candidates

A good conversation starter here, as Trevor Sikkema puts together a list of possible head coaching candidates for next year. Obviously, the hot young offensive mind everyone in the NFL wants is Lincoln Riley of Oklahoma, but there's also Vikings OC John DeFilippo and Titans OC Matt LaFleur. There are some defensive minds on here, and some older retreads who may get new consideration. Norv Turner again? I suppose it's possible. Who's your favorite head coach candidate?

6 comments, Last at 14 Nov 2018, 10:42am by rageon