DVOA Playoff Odds Report

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIII
1 13.8% 6 5.6% 11 2.6%
2 13.4% 7 5.2% 12 2.5%
3 7.9% 8 5.1% 13 2.3%
4 7.2% 9 3.1% 14 2.0%
5 5.7% 10 2.6% 15 2.0%
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from Football Outsiders Almanac 2018

Recent Articles

FO on ESPN: Feature Columns

ESPN: Ranking the NFL's Most Likely Worst-to-First Teams
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ESPN: Ranking the NFL's Most Likely Worst-to-First Teams

The Philadelphia Eagles went from last place in the NFC East in 2016 to division champs (and, of course, Super Bowl winners) in 2017. Which last-place teams have the brightest outlook heading into 2018? The candidates aren't as strong as usual, but we like the odds for Deshaun Watson and the Texans.

2 comments, Last at 18 Aug 2018, 4:18am by Theo

Stat Analysis

2017 DVOA by Routes: Receivers
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2017 DVOA by Routes: Receivers

Our intro to DVOA by routes focuses on receivers. Which wideout was the best at the game's two most common routes? Also: an argument in favor of the fade, how the Dolphins should replace Jarvis Landry's screens, and T.Y. Hilton's wacky 2017.

3 comments, Last at 17 Aug 2018, 12:35pm by Scott Kacsmar

Scramble

Scramble: 2018 East Over/Unders
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Scramble: 2018 East Over/Unders

Andrew and Bryan turn their attention out east. Will either of the defending conference champions miss a beat? Is Dak Prescott doomed? And will someone in the AFC East please stand up?

48 comments, Last at 17 Aug 2018, 7:17pm by nat

FEI Ratings

F/+ Projections vs. the Conventional Wisdom
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F/+ Projections vs. the Conventional Wisdom

Which teams' F/+ projections differ the most from the general fan and media preseason consensus? Here we take a look at three college football teams which are forecasted lower than the conventional wisdom would suggest, and two teams that might outperform expectations.

Ramblings

2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated
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2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated

The players going too high in fantasy drafts this year generally have one thing in common: risk. Remember, everyone, that old players tend to decline; injured players don't always return to health; suspensions can be a red flag; and success in small sample sizes can be misleading.

13 comments, Last at 17 Aug 2018, 2:15pm by The Ninjalectual

Recent Articles

Ramblings

Paul, Vince, and Me
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Paul, Vince, and Me

In this selection from his memoir, veteran sportswriter Edward Hershey tells of his time spent with coaching legends Paul Brown and Vince Lombardi in the summer of 1968, as Brown was saying hello to Cincinnati and Lombardi was saying goodbye to Green Bay.

5 comments, Last at 13 Aug 2018, 10:54am by barf

Stat Analysis

FO Mailbag: Does Defense Dip Down in December?
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FO Mailbag: Does Defense Dip Down in December?

A question from a reader has us diving into week-by-week DVOA splits, looking at how both run and pass defense change over the course of the year. Is wear and tear to blame for defensive declines, or does Old Man Winter have something to say?

14 comments, Last at 14 Aug 2018, 12:54pm by crw78

Scramble

Scramble: 2018 West Over/Unders
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Scramble: 2018 West Over/Unders

Bryan and Andrew are back, whether you like it or not! The 2018 Scramble season starts off with a trip out West, where the boys try to understand the Chargers curse, the Seahawks' offseason philosophy, and Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo.

18 comments, Last at 17 Aug 2018, 9:42pm by The Ninjalectual

Extra Points

SITE NEWS: Design Refresh

We’re excited to unveil our new website design with the goal of improving your user experience. Here's what you can expect...

99 comments, Last at 17 Aug 2018, 1:56am by Jerry

Stat Analysis

2017 Slot vs. Wide: Defense
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2017 Slot vs. Wide: Defense

The Jaguars went from last to first in DVOA on wide targets after adding A.J. Bouye. How will other teams fare in 2018 after the movements of Richard Sherman, Patrick Robinson, and Tyrann Mathieu?