Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Adjusted Interceptions 2016

The quarterback class of 2004 had wildly different results when it came to would-be interceptions that were dropped by defenders. Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning were very lucky. Philip Rivers? Not so much.

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

1987 DVOA Ratings and Commentary

Let's go back in time 30 years, when a four-week player strike threw the entire league into turmoil. We've got advanced stats for both the regular players and the strikebreakers, plus a San Francisco 49ers team that led the league in both offense and defense but imploded in one of the greatest upsets in NFL postseason history.

108 comments, Last Comment at 11 May 2017, 7:44pm by Richie

Mar 13, 2017 02:10pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Film Room: Receiving Backs in Super Bowl LI

The Patriots and Falcons each have a couple of high-quality receiving backs, but which defense is more likely to continue to struggle covering running backs in the passing game? Also: the greatness of the wheel route.

7 comments, Last Comment at 07 Feb 2017, 1:41pm by Guest789

Feb 02, 2017 03:09pm by Scott Kacsmar || read all Film Room articles

Word of Muth: Super Bowl Preview

The Falcons and Patriots got to the Super Bowl thanks in part to the excellent play of their offensive lines -- but that doesn't mean they don't have flaws to exploit.

11 comments, Last Comment at 04 Feb 2017, 6:07pm by Andrew Potter

Jan 31, 2017 03:20pm by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

QR Bonus: Keys To Beating New England

It was difficult to find New England's weaknesses this year, but Atlanta's best bet is likely to test the depth of the Patriots secondary.

19 comments, Last Comment at 03 Feb 2017, 3:59pm by nat

Jan 31, 2017 01:46pm GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Audibles: 2017 NFL Draft Day 2

Your Audibles crew discusses the second and third rounds of the 2017 NFL Draft.

45 comments, Last Comment at 03 May 2017, 11:01pm by eagle97a

Apr 29, 2017 04:07am GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

FEI 2016 Final Ratings

In many ways, the National Championship game looked like many of Alabama's wins. In other ways it was like no game they had ever played before.

12 comments, Last Comment at 15 Jan 2017, 5:31pm by mehllageman56

Jan 11, 2017 02:23pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Wearing the Tide Down

The dam never fully broke, but eventually Deshaun Watson and the Clemson offense wore down an incredible Crimson Tide defense because Alabama's offense couldn't stay on the field.

2 comments, Last Comment at 11 Jan 2017, 2:05pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin

Jan 10, 2017 09:31pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA National Championship Preview

It's the rematch we all hoped for when Alabama narrowly beat Clemson in last year's National Championship. Can the Tide fend off Deshaun Watson and the Tigers once more?

14 comments, Last Comment at 19 Jan 2017, 4:13am by Amily

Jan 08, 2017 06:57pm by Ian Boyd || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

Any Given Sunday: Jaguars Over Titans

Ditch Gus Bradley, then hand the division crown to the Texans while messing with your draft position. That was Jacksonville's plan on Sunday as the Titans stumbled even before Marcus Mariota got hurt.

2 comments, Last Comment at 29 Dec 2016, 4:39am by bubqr

Dec 27, 2016 02:17pm GMT by Rivers McCown || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Month In Quotes: April 2017

As you may have heard, the NFL draft took place last month. And nobody made more noise draft weekend than the Cleveland Browns -- and their spirited new players.

24 comments, Last Comment at 09 May 2017, 8:02pm by mehllageman56

May 05, 2017 01:14pm by Rob Eves || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: Disbelief

Your Scramble writers are still trying to come to grips with what exactly happened Sunday night. Also: the most exciting Super Bowls in history, results of our various playoff contests, and a whole mess of commercials in the final Scramble for the 2016 season.

51 comments, Last Comment at 13 Feb 2017, 2:30pm by Bryan Knowles

Feb 08, 2017 12:03pm by Bryan Knowles and Andrew Potter || read all Scramble articles

Most Recent Articles

23 May 2017, 03:51pm by Vincent Verhei

Adjusted Interceptions 2016

The quarterback class of 2004 had wildly different results when it came to would-be interceptions that were dropped by defenders. Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning were very lucky. Philip Rivers? Not so much.

» More...

16 comments, Last at 9:32am by jtr

22 May 2017, 01:34pm by Guest

Hope For Jared Goff?

After a disastrous rookie campaign, is there hope the Rams quarterback can turn his career around? Guest columnist Damon Gulczynski pores through the FO database in search of other passers who struggled out of the gate before finding success down the line.

» More...

26 comments, Last at 23 May 2017, 4:56pm by JoeyHarringtonsPiano

18 May 2017, 12:43pm by Bryan Knowles

Four Downs: NFC West

The Seahawks have dominated this division for years despite a subpar offensive line, a weakness that seems to have spread to their rivals in California. Then there's the Cardinals, who will soon face life without Carson Palmer.

» More...

19 comments, Last at 19 May 2017, 11:01am by dryheat

17 May 2017, 12:30pm by Andrew Potter

Four Downs: NFC South

The Saints need a pass-rusher, and the Panthers and Bucs need defensive backs. Meanwhile, in Atlanta, the league's best offense needs ... more offense?

» More...

17 comments, Last at 21 May 2017, 7:15pm by Theo

16 May 2017, 12:13pm by Cian Fahey

Four Downs: NFC North

The Bears need defensive backs, the Lions need pass-rushers, the Vikings need receivers, and the Packers need to decide if they're going to keep playing a wide receiver at running back.

» More...

42 comments, Last at 20 May 2017, 1:00pm by ChrisLong

15 May 2017, 12:45pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Updated 2017 Team Projections

Here are some updated 2017 team projections on ESPN Insider. These are fairly similar to those we ran in April, because the NFL draft doesn't have as much effect as you might think on the ability to predict next season. Obviously, the draft can have a huge effect -- it just isn't a predictable one. The one thing we have found is that drafting defensive talent high is more positive for the immediate future than drafting offensive talent, which is why the Colts and Ravens are a little better in this forecast while the Chargers and Bengals drop a little.

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0 comments

15 May 2017, 12:02pm by Vincent Verhei

Four Downs: NFC East

There's a common theme among much of this division, with Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington all needing more help to stop opposing passing attacks. Then there's the Giants, who need to figure out who's going to run the ball this year.

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9 comments, Last at 23 May 2017, 10:44pm by lindamarlianty

12 May 2017, 01:46pm by Scott Kacsmar

Four Downs: AFC West

The Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs all need help in the middle of their defense. As for the Broncos, they need help right smack dab in the middle of their offense.

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12 comments, Last at 16 May 2017, 9:20am by Aaron Brooks Good Twin

11 May 2017, 12:31pm by Tom Gower

Four Downs: AFC South

Even after the draft, NFL rosters are left with significant holes. In most divisions, though, the draft tells us what each team's game plan is. The AFC South is not like most divisions.

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27 comments, Last at 14 May 2017, 7:06pm by Theo

09 May 2017, 02:21pm by Rivers McCown

Four Downs: AFC North

While the division champs in Pittsburgh need help in the secondary, contenders in Baltimore and Cincinnati need more talent on offense. The Browns? They need the patience to deal with some growing pains.

» More...

27 comments, Last at 19 May 2017, 11:34am by dryheat

08 May 2017, 12:00pm by Scott Kacsmar

Four Downs: AFC East

With the draft in the rearview mirror, what's the biggest hole remaining for each NFL team? All four teams in the AFC East need help on offense -- yes, even the reigning Super Bowl champs.

» More...

34 comments, Last at 15 May 2017, 10:36am by Raiderjoe

05 May 2017, 01:14pm by Rob Eves

The Month In Quotes: April 2017

As you may have heard, the NFL draft took place last month. And nobody made more noise draft weekend than the Cleveland Browns -- and their spirited new players.

» More...

24 comments, Last at 09 May 2017, 8:02pm by mehllageman56

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