DVOA Playoff Odds Report

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIII
150.1% 249.9%
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through Week 20

Recent Articles

Clutch Encounters

Clutch Encounters: Conference Championships
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Clutch Encounters: Conference Championships

After a dull postseason, Championship Sunday produced two overtime games and two road upsets. The Chiefs join a growing list of offensive juggernauts paired with poor defenses that fell short of a ring. Also: was that the worst non-call ever in New Orleans, and what should the NFL do about expanding replay and overtime?

6 comments, Last at 22 Jan 2019, 9:10am by Damon

Quick Reads

Conference Championships Quick Reads/DVOA Ratings
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Conference Championships Quick Reads/DVOA Ratings

The Patriots' path to the Super Bowl was paved by a trio of running backs -- none of whom was particularly good when you account for the terrible quality of Kansas City's defense. Plus, updated weighted DVOA points to the closest Super Bowl matchup we've ever seen.

12 comments, Last at 22 Jan 2019, 8:52am by big10freak

Audibles

Audibles at the Line: Conference Championships
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Audibles at the Line: Conference Championships

For the first time in history, both conference championship games go to overtime. The New England Patriots are in the Super Bowl, as they once again play an explosive Rams offense, led by an offensive genius head coach, in an NFC South dome. And, uh, how about that officiating?

189 comments, Last at 22 Jan 2019, 9:23am by Will Allen

Open Discussion

Championship Sunday Open Discussion
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Championship Sunday Open Discussion

The Los Angeles Rams visit New Orleans to play the Saints for the NFC Championship and the George Halas Trophy at 3:05 p.m. EST. Then the New England Patriots head to Kansas City to face the Chiefs for the AFC Championship and the Lamar Hunt Trophy at 6:40 p.m. Winners meet in the Super Bowl two weeks later. Let's do this.

209 comments, Last at 22 Jan 2019, 6:38am by umuddafadda

Game Previews

NFC Championship Preview 2019
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NFC Championship Preview 2019

Hold that shootout narrative for a moment! Over the last three months, the New Orleans Saints are the one remaining NFL team that could really play good defense. That should lead them to a win over Los Angeles and a trip to Super Bowl LIII. But what if Drew Brees struggles like he has since the start of December? And what will the presence of Aqib Talib really mean for slowing down the unguardable Michael Thomas?

9 comments, Last at 20 Jan 2019, 6:54pm by LionInAZ

Recent Articles

Game Previews

AFC Championship Preview 2019
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AFC Championship Preview 2019

Belichick. Reid. Brady. Mahomes. Gronkowski. Kelce. Edelman. Tyreek. Two bad defenses. The AFC Championship Game should be explosive. Will the Patriots reach the Super Bowl for the 11th time? Or will Kansas City bring the Lamar Hunt Trophy home?

34 comments, Last at 20 Jan 2019, 8:29pm by LionInAZ

Word Of Muth

Word of Muth: What Horseshoe?
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Word of Muth: What Horseshoe?

The Colts may wear a lucky charm on their helmets, but their offensive line suffered ill fortune against the Chiefs, being undone by teammate's mistakes and badly timed (and badly called) penalties. Still, Ben Muth finds plenty to like about their chances in 2019.

3 comments, Last at 18 Jan 2019, 1:43pm by turbohappy

Week in Quotes

The Week in Quotes: January 18, 2019
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The Week in Quotes: January 18, 2019

This week, there's a little about the Rams, Patriots, Eagles, Ravens, Chargers, and Packers, and then a whole lot about the Saints. Laissez les bon temps rouler.

1 comment, Last at 20 Jan 2019, 6:29pm by LionInAZ

Podcasts

Off The Charts Podcast: January 17
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Off The Charts Podcast: January 17

The new Off The Charts football podcast goes in depth on the conference championship games. We start with a big conversation on whether distinct home-field advantages for different teams in different years are "real" or not. Plus: we discuss how Eli Apple changed the way the Saints brought pressure, how the Rams win on the ground with scheme, and how each team this week will set up its cornerback coverage. (Click for audio link.)

Film Room

Film Room: New England's Offense
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Film Room: New England's Offense

New England doesn't have the fantasy superstars or explosive playmakers that Kansas City has -- but they do have the kind of versatile pieces and deceptive schemes that will give the Chiefs headaches on Sunday.

21 comments, Last at 20 Jan 2019, 3:33pm by Vincent Verhei