DVOA Playoff Odds Report

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIII
1 13.8% 6 5.6% 11 2.6%
2 13.4% 7 5.2% 12 2.5%
3 7.9% 8 5.1% 13 2.3%
4 7.2% 9 3.1% 14 2.0%
5 5.7% 10 2.6% 15 2.0%
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from Football Outsiders Almanac 2018

Recent Articles

Stat Analysis

2017 DVOA by Routes: Quarterbacks
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2017 DVOA by Routes: Quarterbacks

Why isn't there more route variation for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay? Was Eli Manning still washed up on the most common routes in 2017? And we offer solutions for Jameis Winston's vertical woes and the right kind of fade for Derek Carr.

Extra Points

FOA 2018 Media: SB Nation

FOA 2018 Media: SB Nation

Once again this year, we've worked with SB Nation to answer questions about Football Outsiders Almanac 2018 and the upcoming NFL season. We'll post answers for each team as they are published. (Click to read more.)

Ramblings

2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Underrated
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2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Underrated

Our look at players going too low in fantasy drafts includes many holdovers from last year, including four-time all-underrated quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. What it it about these players that makes them so hard to predict? And how should you handle players who have been (or might be) suspended?

7 comments, Last at 21 Aug 2018, 1:00pm by bingo762

FO on ESPN: Feature Columns

ESPN: The Best and Worst QBs at Everything
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ESPN: The Best and Worst QBs at Everything

OK, not quite everything, but we've got six lists here that go over how quarterbacks did in different metrics in 2017. Included: the best and worst quarterbacks by EPA added compared to the rest of their team -- with Alex Smith surprisingly high -- the most and least accurate quarterbacks based on pass distances, and the most and least aggressive quarterbacks on third downs.

Week in Quotes

The Week In Quotes: August 19, 2018
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The Week In Quotes: August 19, 2018

This week: tight booties, dirty names, angry coaches, gnarly hairstyles, and Jacksonville's harshest quarterback critic evaluates the passers of the NFL.

7 comments, Last at 20 Aug 2018, 8:00pm by commissionerleaf

Recent Articles

FO on ESPN: Feature Columns

ESPN: Ranking the NFL's Most Likely Worst-to-First Teams
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ESPN: Ranking the NFL's Most Likely Worst-to-First Teams

The Philadelphia Eagles went from last place in the NFC East in 2016 to division champs (and, of course, Super Bowl winners) in 2017. Which last-place teams have the brightest outlook heading into 2018? The candidates aren't as strong as usual, but we like the odds for Deshaun Watson and the Texans.

7 comments, Last at 21 Aug 2018, 12:11am by herewegobrowniesherewego

Stat Analysis

2017 DVOA by Routes: Receivers
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2017 DVOA by Routes: Receivers

Our intro to DVOA by routes focuses on receivers. Which wideout was the best at the game's two most common routes? Also: an argument in favor of the fade, how the Dolphins should replace Jarvis Landry's screens, and T.Y. Hilton's wacky 2017.

4 comments, Last at 19 Aug 2018, 4:09am by Theo

Scramble

Scramble: 2018 East Over/Unders
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Scramble: 2018 East Over/Unders

Andrew and Bryan turn their attention out east. Will either of the defending conference champions miss a beat? Is Dak Prescott doomed? And will someone in the AFC East please stand up?

54 comments, Last at 20 Aug 2018, 3:58pm by Bright Blue Shorts

FEI Ratings

F/+ Projections vs. the Conventional Wisdom
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F/+ Projections vs. the Conventional Wisdom

Which teams' F/+ projections differ the most from the general fan and media preseason consensus? Here we take a look at three college football teams which are forecasted lower than the conventional wisdom would suggest, and two teams that might outperform expectations.

Ramblings

2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated
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2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated

The players going too high in fantasy drafts this year generally have one thing in common: risk. Remember, everyone, that old players tend to decline; injured players don't always return to health; suspensions can be a red flag; and success in small sample sizes can be misleading.

15 comments, Last at 20 Aug 2018, 6:46pm by Eddo