As the college football season approaches its stretch run, plenty of surprising teams are still in contention for unlikely titles. From a wide-open SEC West to a key showdown in the Big 12 scramble, underdogs with slim playoff odds still have plenty to play for in the second half.
Can the Cleveland Browns win big games? Is Baker Mayfield worth a nine-figure contract? Sunday's showdown with the Arizona Cardinals will help answer that question. Plus, Walkthrough solves the riddle of the Los Angeles Chargers' low DVOA, predicts how Bengals-Lions will turn out, and even finds a wager that will make Dolphins-Jaguars interesting.
Scott Spratt hosts the FO Fantasy Show on Twitch this week with he is joined by Aaron Schatz. Scott and Aaron group broke down the Week 6 matchups from a fantasy and DFS prospective.
News and commentary from around the web.
Pete Overzet and Chris Spags of EdjSports break down some of the massive injury news that affects the entire Week 6 NFL DFS and fantasy slate with the help of ESPN+’s fantasy legend Al Zeidenfeld!
The Detroit Lions have a terrible defense and an offense that can't stay on the field. That spells fantasy gold for their opponents this week, the Cincinnati Bengals, including quarterback Joe Burrow, running back Joe Mixon, and wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase.
Our Metrics Explained
What is DVOA?
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
Measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
What is DYAR?
Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement
Compares the performance of each player, in terms of DVOA, to a replacement-level baseline rather than the league average for that position.
What is DAVE?
DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early
Used early in the year with the goal of getting the best idea of how good a team will be over the entire season without jumping to conclusions based on one or two good or bad early games.
Tampa Bay comes out better than average when we compare them to the average defending champion in DVOA. Kansas City comes out below average for a defending Super Bowl loser, but by less than you might expect. Plus, a mini Thursday night Bucs-Eagles preview!
Schatz & Tanier on Football Outsiders Live! is hosted by Aaron Schatz with Mike Tanier. This week Aaron and Mike are joined by Football Outsiders staff writer Tom Gower. The group discussed the biggest matchups of the weekend providing some bets and picks to make for this weekend.
Pete Overzet and Chris Spags of EdjSports catch up on this week’s NFL news, review some interesting stats for key fantasy players, and preview Thursday Night Football’s Bucs-Eagles game for betting and NFL DFS!
The NFL is on pace to call a record number of roughing the passer penalties. Walkthrough explains how strict interpretations of the rules could end up doing more harm than good. Plus, learn how Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense is running on empty, and get caught up with the Jaguars diaspora.
Oklahoma trailed Texas 28-7 at the end of the first quarter before inserting freshman quarterback Caleb Williams, who rallied them to a 55-48 win. Brian Fremeau looks at comebacks and asks whether they have any more predictive value than wire-to-wire victories.
Why did the emails that forced Jon Gruden to resign sound so familiar? Mike Tanier explains where we have heard all of this before. Plus, some useful advice for fixing the Houston Texans and a Defensive Player of the Year prop bet that has Walkthrough reaching for the wallet.