Going into last year's Super Bowl, the Cincinnati Bengals had more big wins than the Los Angeles Rams, but also more bad losses. Should that data have given either team an edge?
Miami's likely shift in run/pass ratio makes the Dolphins passing game overrated in fantasy, plus other lessons from KUBIAK 2022.
Our look at slot versus wide performance in the passing game continues. Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford's success correlates with that of their receivers. What does that mean for Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes as they break in new receivers in 2022?
Bryan and Cale's trip through the preseason over/unders continues with a trip to the AFC South! Will the Jaguars be better after some Urban renewal? Do the Colts have the best receiving corps of the bunch?
It's early August, which means it's time for the traditional stories of how Allen Lazard of the Packers, DeVante Parker of the Patriots, and Parris Campbell of the Colts are ready to break out.
Our preview shows continue with the NFC East on Thursday. Rivers McCown join Mike Tanier and Aaron Schatz to talk Commanders and Cowboys.
Our Metrics Explained
What is DVOA?
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
Measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
What is DYAR?
Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement
Compares the performance of each player, in terms of DVOA, to a replacement-level baseline rather than the league average for that position.
What is DAVE?
DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early
Used early in the year with the goal of getting the best idea of how good a team will be over the entire season without jumping to conclusions based on one or two good or bad early games.
Pete Carroll likes to call runs. Andy Reid likes to throw passes. But do NFL coaches change their strategy to avoid calling similar plays twice in a row?
Bryan and Cale kick off our look at the over/unders for 2022! Are the Falcons this year's good bad team? Can time itself stop Tom Brady? And do we fear for tears for Matt Rhule?
Our annual look at receiving performance in and of the slot kicks off with the receivers. By the time we're done with these statistical articles, we'll have used every available picture of Cooper Kupp.
With draft information now in hand, we can complete our QBASE forecasts. The class of rookie quarterbacks looks even worse now that it did in April, but Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett has a real chance to succeed.
The FO preview shows continue on Tuesday, with this edition covering the Rams and Seahawks chapters along with guest Matt Harmon from Yahoo Sports!
Is the Kyler Murray/Arizona Cardinals relationship truly toxic or secretly self-actualized? Also: Lamar Jackson's negotiation blunders and Trevon Diggs' unattainable goals.
Time for our annual list of under-the-radar, lower-drafted prospects, also featured in Football Outsiders Almanac 2022.
Our annual look at defensive personnel checks on Dan Quinn abandoning the base, the effects of Matt Milano on the Buffalo defense, and whether Pete Carroll is secretly still a defensive genius.