Home | Football Outsiders

Jalen Ramsey Can’t Do It Alone

If the Rams fail to defend their Super Bowl championship, it will likely be because "throw away from Jalen Ramsey" is an easy and effective strategy.

NFL Offseason • Yesterday

Bryan Knowles

Ramblings

USFL Week 6 Preview: Will the Bandits Become Stars?

Week 6 in the USFL is highlighted by a Bandit-Stars matchup, where Todd Haley's men try to prove they're actual contenders and not paper tigers. Plus: USFL vs. XFL.

USFL • Yesterday

Aaron Schatz

DVOA Analysis

Would Patriots Win an All-Time Super Bowl?

If you took the best offense and defense in each franchise's history, who would win the Super Bowl? Top contenders include the Patriots, Eagles, and Rams.

NFL Offseason • May 19, 1:10 pm ET

Mike Tanier

Walkthrough

Way-Too-Early Eagles, Saints Prop Bets

The Eagles and Saints 2022 win-total over-unders are too low. The Giants are too high. Walkthrough has some wagers that feel just right. Plus: Howie Roseman and the Multicap of Madness!

NFL Offseason • May 19, 10:15 am ET

The Outsiders

Podcasts

KUBIAK Fantasy Projections: 2022 Second-Year WR Breakouts

Football Outsiders' Editor-in-Chief Aaron Schatz is joined by his usual co-host, Senior Analyst Mike Tanier, to review second-year WR improvements based on KUBIAK projections, discuss Mike's article on Justin Fields, and evaluate the rest of the NFC North.

NFL Offseason • May 19, 10:05 am ET

Bryan Knowles

Four Downs

Secondary the Weakest Link for Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If the Bucs fail to return to the Super Bowl, the defensive backfield will probably be to blame.

NFL Offseason • May 19, 10:00 am ET

Extra Points

News and commentary from around the web.

FO on

Football Outsiders content published by ESPN

Derrik Klassen

Four Downs

Projecting Packers' Top Wideout

Aaron Rodgers no longer has Davante Adams. Who's going to be his security blanket in 2022?

NFL Offseason • May 18, 9:49 am ET

Rivers McCown

Four Downs

What Will Micah Parsons' Role be in 2022?

Though he's theoretically an off-ball linebacker, the Cowboys star may once again be forced into a pass-rushing role.

NFL Offseason • May 17, 9:34 am ET

Mike Tanier

Walkthrough

The Reckless Abandonment of Justin Fields

The Chicago Bears left Justin Fields by the side of the highway with nothing but a 25-year-old rookie to keep him company. Find out just what sort of game Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus are playing.

NFL Offseason • May 16, 10:00 am ET

Bryan Knowles

Ramblings

USFL Week 5: Generals Command the North

The North strikes back, going 2-2 against the South in the second week of interdivisional action in the USFL. We have a new team in title contention, a new team at the top of our rankings, and a new result for the Maulers.

USFL • May 16, 9:45 am ET

Our Metrics Explained

What is DVOA?

Defense-adjusted Value Over Average

Measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

What is DYAR?

Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement

Compares the performance of each player, in terms of DVOA, to a replacement-level baseline rather than the league average for that position.

What is DAVE?

DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early

Used early in the year with the goal of getting the best idea of how good a team will be over the entire season without jumping to conclusions based on one or two good or bad early games.

Guest

NFL Draft

Why So Many Draft Trades This Year?

Guest columnist Alex Olbrecht on how economic theory explains why the 2022 NFL draft had so many more traded picks than usual.

NFL Draft • May 13, 8:58 am ET

The Outsiders

Podcasts

Underdog Best Ball Mania Draft: SPLASH PLAY

Pete and Spags take a look at the Week 17 schedule from a best ball perspective before hopping in another BBM3 draft on Underdog Fantasy. For the love of God, don't make them take Drew Lock.

NFL Offseason • May 13, 8:11 am ET

Bryan Knowles

Ramblings

USFL Week 5 Preview: Breakers and Generals Battle for No. 2

The USFL's inter-division schedule resumes as the South looks to cement it's advantage over the North. Can the Generals and company win some respect back for the lesser division?

USFL • May 13, 7:49 am ET

L.A. Rams DT Aaron Donald and Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

Vincent Verhei

Ramblings

Schedule's Out: Rams Host Bills in Kickoff Game

The NFL has released its 2022 schedule. The season kicks off with the Super Bowl champs hosting the AFC favorites in rematch of a wild game from 2020.

NFL Offseason • May 12, 5:08 pm ET

Travon Walker and the Jacksonville Jaguars

Vincent Verhei

Stat Analysis

How Travon Walker Fits in Jacksonville's Oversized Defense

Walker, an oversized edge rusher, should feel right at home on the NFL's largest defensive team.

NFL Offseason • May 12, 4:16 pm ET

Mike Tanier

Walkthrough

The Decline and Fall of Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry's broken-tackle rates plummeted in 2021, and that's terrible news for the Tennessee Titans. Plus, news 'n' notes from around the NFL, and Mike Tanier goes to the mattresses.

NFL Offseason • May 12, 10:00 am ET

The Outsiders

Podcasts

NFL Schedule Release: Evaluating DVOA Schedule Projections

Football Outsiders' Editor-in-Chief, Aaron Schatz is joined by Senior Analyst Mike Tanier and welcome NFL Insider and Reporter Matt Lombardo on to talk the NFL Schedule Release and the DVOA strength of schedules.

NFL Offseason • May 12, 9:00 am ET

Indianapolis TE Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle

Vincent Verhei

Stat Analysis

Colts Trying to Win with Jumbo Receivers

Led by their oversized wideouts and gigantic tight ends, the Indianapolis Colts had the NFL's biggest offense in 2021—and they should be even bigger in 2022.

NFL Offseason • May 11, 10:20 am ET