Our annual look at defensive personnel asks where the Patriots' base defense was, if Matt Milano and the Bills will ever stop playing nickel, and if the Packers can spare a dime.
Our annual look at offensive personnel asks if the league has reached a three-receiver equilibrium, and looks at the few teams that still use fullbacks, including the Minnesota Vikings and C.J. Ham.
In this "Issue Zero" of the rebooted Walkthrough, Mike Tanier explores the dysfunctional Aaron Rodgers/Green Bay Packers relationship as only he can, handicaps the Comeback Player of the Year field, and (after nearly falling for an Internet hoax) speculates on what type of high school coach Adam Gase would be.
An all-new stream of the FO Radio Hour hosted by Aaron Schatz with featured guests Mike Tanier, Scott Spratt and Vince Verhei. The FO writers were all together in one spot for the first time EVER. They discuss their travel stories from the week in Louisville and talked about news from the NFC West. They also get into the Josh Allen Third-Year Jump Drinking Game (TM).
Our Metrics Explained
What is DVOA?
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
Measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
What is DYAR?
Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement
Compares the performance of each player, in terms of DVOA, to a replacement-level baseline rather than the league average for that position.
What is DAVE?
DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early
Used early in the year with the goal of getting the best idea of how good a team will be over the entire season without jumping to conclusions based on one or two good or bad early games.
More From the Outsiders
After years of the top of the receiving plus-minus rankings being dominated by high-volume short-yardage players, Stefon Diggs throws us back to 2014.
For over a decade, the passing plus-minus and CPOE rankings were an opportunity to wax poetic about Drew Brees. With Brees retired, can anyone claim his mantle?
An all-new stream of the FO Radio Hour hosted by Aaron Schatz with featured guests Mike Tanier and Vince Verhei. The group discusses the release of the Football Outsiders Almanac 2021. Aaron, Mike and Vince talk about their favorite team chapters and compare the Football Outsiders projections to Vegas.
Quarterback controversies! Labor disputes! Cranky coaches! Lefty passers! Tiny hands! Our final Legends of DVOA installment looks at the two-decade career of Dave Krieg, a streaky passer who always seemed to have one foot in the playoffs and the other on the bench.
For the second straight season, a rookie tops our annual YAC+ rankings—though it's not the one you may have expected.
Scott Spratt takes his Fantasy Podcast to Twitch to discuss seven interesting storylines that came from the KUBIAK Projections. Joining Scott this week to talk fantasy football was Danny Kelly of The Ringer.
We're happy to announce that the Football Outsiders Almanac 2021, Digital Edition is now available! This is the 17th annual version of the book that the Boston Globe called the "Bible for superfans and fantasy football leaguers."
Charlie Garner played a minor role in some major controversies, from an all-time Super Bowl blunder to one of the most regrettable post-game quotes in NFL history. He was also among the best running backs of his era on a per-carry basis. Mike Tanier looks back on the rise of Jon Gruden, the fall of Rich Kotite, and the career of an outstanding but enigmatic individual.
An all-new stream of the FO Radio Hour hosted by Aaron Schatz with featured guests Mike Tanier and Bryan Knowles. The group discusses the worst teams of all time from Bryan's Anti-Dynasty series of articles. They also dive into the current Cleveland Browns who are not bad compared to where they were just a few short years ago.