ALEX
A weekly look at the most aggressive and conservative quarterbacks on third downs.

ALEX: Week 12

by Scott Kacsmar

So far with ALEX, we have only looked at quarterbacks, but there are plans to study defenses and receivers in due time. Specifically for receivers, ALEX should add good context for the results we see with failed receptions, receiving plus-minus, and YAC+, as they are all related stats.

For a little reference into what numbers we are seeing this year, I looked at the 50 players with at least 20 third-down targets through Week 12. Here are the top 10 and bottom 10 in average ALEX, along with the player's conversion rate. Obviously those rates vary a lot as we have not yet filtered out the uncatchable targets from this 2015 data.

Top 10 Receivers in ALEX, 2015
Bottom 10 Receivers in ALEX, 2015
Player Team Targets ALEX Rk Conv% Player Team Targets ALEX Rk Conv%
A.J. Green CIN 22 10.1 1 59.1% Jason Witten DAL 21 -0.9 41 42.9%
Allen Robinson JAC 23 8.5 2 21.7% Randall Cobb GB 23 -1.0 42 30.4%
Kamar Aiken BAL 21 8.2 3 28.6% Jared Cook STL 20 -1.3 43 20.0%
Mike Evans TB 32 7.5 4 37.5% Keenan Allen SD 23 -1.3 44 56.5%
Ted Ginn Jr. CAR 20 7.3 5 40.0% Jarvis Landry MIA 32 -1.4 45 28.1%
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 30 7.1 6 56.7% Jeremy Maclin KC 22 -1.8 46 31.8%
Travis Benjamin CLE 23 7.0 7 39.1% Travis Kelce KC 21 -1.9 47 47.6%
Eric Decker NYJ 23 6.5 8 56.5% Jordan Reed WAS 24 -2.1 48 54.2%
Antonio Brown PIT 40 6.4 9 52.5% Danny Amendola NE 20 -4.3 49 55.0%
Alshon Jeffery CHI 21 6.3 10 47.6% Danny Woodhead SD 23 -7.3 50 30.4%
Minimum 20 third-down targets.

Comments

1 comment, Last at 30 Nov 2015, 6:27pm

1 Re: ALEX: Week 12

"You have nothing to lose when down 20-0 in the fourth quarter, so why not attack on fourth-and-16 in opponent territory? Some teams have actually punted in this situation, though we have not seen that since 2012."

I'm not sure what "this situation" means here, but Chicago punted on 4th-and-1 on their own 46 down 20-0 with 2:35 to go in the 3rd quarter against Seattle.