by Scott Kacsmar
So far with ALEX, we have only looked at quarterbacks, but there are plans to study defenses and receivers in due time. Specifically for receivers, ALEX should add good context for the results we see with failed receptions, receiving plus-minus, and YAC+, as they are all related stats.
For a little reference into what numbers we are seeing this year, I looked at the 50 players with at least 20 third-down targets through Week 12. Here are the top 10 and bottom 10 in average ALEX, along with the player's conversion rate. Obviously those rates vary a lot as we have not yet filtered out the uncatchable targets from this 2015 data.
| Top 10 Receivers in ALEX, 2015 | Bottom 10 Receivers in ALEX, 2015 | |||||||||||
| Player | Team | Targets | ALEX | Rk | Conv% | Player | Team | Targets | ALEX | Rk | Conv% | |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 22 | 10.1 | 1 | 59.1% | Jason Witten | DAL | 21 | -0.9 | 41 | 42.9% | |
| Allen Robinson | JAC | 23 | 8.5 | 2 | 21.7% | Randall Cobb | GB | 23 | -1.0 | 42 | 30.4% | |
| Kamar Aiken | BAL | 21 | 8.2 | 3 | 28.6% | Jared Cook | STL | 20 | -1.3 | 43 | 20.0% | |
| Mike Evans | TB | 32 | 7.5 | 4 | 37.5% | Keenan Allen | SD | 23 | -1.3 | 44 | 56.5% | |
| Ted Ginn Jr. | CAR | 20 | 7.3 | 5 | 40.0% | Jarvis Landry | MIA | 32 | -1.4 | 45 | 28.1% | |
| Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 30 | 7.1 | 6 | 56.7% | Jeremy Maclin | KC | 22 | -1.8 | 46 | 31.8% | |
| Travis Benjamin | CLE | 23 | 7.0 | 7 | 39.1% | Travis Kelce | KC | 21 | -1.9 | 47 | 47.6% | |
| Eric Decker | NYJ | 23 | 6.5 | 8 | 56.5% | Jordan Reed | WAS | 24 | -2.1 | 48 | 54.2% | |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 40 | 6.4 | 9 | 52.5% | Danny Amendola | NE | 20 | -4.3 | 49 | 55.0% | |
| Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 21 | 6.3 | 10 | 47.6% | Danny Woodhead | SD | 23 | -7.3 | 50 | 30.4% | |
| Minimum 20 third-down targets. | ||||||||||||
1 Re: ALEX: Week 12
"You have nothing to lose when down 20-0 in the fourth quarter, so why not attack on fourth-and-16 in opponent territory? Some teams have actually punted in this situation, though we have not seen that since 2012."
I'm not sure what "this situation" means here, but Chicago punted on 4th-and-1 on their own 46 down 20-0 with 2:35 to go in the 3rd quarter against Seattle.
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1 comment, Last at 30 Nov 2015, 6:27pm