Any Given Sunday: Patriots over Bengals

by Andrew Healy

Coming into Sunday's game, the Patriots' offense had a serious deep passing problem. On passes more than 15 yards downfield, Tom Brady had completed just four of 26 throws for 105 yards, one interception and one defensive pass interference. And even those stats looked rosy compared to how bad things have been recently. Since the first half of the season opener, Brady's stat line was: 2/21, 40 yards, 1 INT, 1 DPI. Brady's DYAR on deep passes over the first four weeks was -109. By way of comparison, Geno Smith's DYAR on deep passes -- including his disaster on Sunday -- was -14, on almost the same number of attempts. Chad Henne and EJ Manuel had DYAR on deep passes of +78 and +54, respectively, before they were benched. Overall, Brady was the worst quarterback in football on deep passes through four weeks.

Brady and the Patriots seemed to face the worst possible matchup in Week 5. Cincinnati came into Sunday night's game the top-ranked pass defense by a mile. The gap in DVOA between the Bengals and the second-place team was bigger than the gap between No. 2 and No. 14. Moreover, the Patriots were poorly positioned to exploit the area where the Bengals' pass defense was at least a little more vulnerable. Entering Sunday, the Bengals ranked seventh (by DYAR) in defending the deep pass, but were first against short passes.

No wonder, then, that the Bengals were favored. They were the best short-passing defense in football against a team that could only throw short. At kickoff, the Patriots were underdogs by a field goal, the first time they had been getting at least three points at home in almost nine years.

The team that could only throw short ended up flipping the script in large part by throwing over the top of inside zones designed to stop the short pass. The Patriots ended up with the second-best deep-passing performance in football in Week 5, behind only those hard-charging Cleveland Browns. They had more completions on deep passes against the Bengals than they did in the first four weeks combined.

The Patriots' greater success throwing downfield came mostly from passes down the seam to tight ends. After Brandon LaFell broke the Patriots' three-game streak without a deep completion to a wide receiver on the first offensive play, the Patriots' four other long completions came from two down the left seam to Tim Wright and two down the right seam to Rob Gronkowski. Wright's second-quarter touchdown doesn't even qualify here since it went 15 yards in the air. Despite only playing 19 snaps, Wright made a huge difference, and much more on him follows below.

Of course, the improvement in Brady's performance owes most of all to improved pass protection. That improved protection largely because for three quarters, the line experimentation was limited to a lone late first-half series where Marcus Cannon replaced Sebastian Vollmer at right tackle. On an otherwise ideal night, the experiment did not go well. Going forward, the line of Nate Solder-Dan Connolly-Bryan Stork-Ryan Wendell-Sebastian Vollmer that kept Brady clean against the league's best pass defense seems set.

By the DVOA

This week's "Dewey vs. Truman" has got to be the weirdest one in the history of this recurring segment. Truman was a plucky underdog for most of his whole life. Other than Truman being famous for wearing Uggs, he doesn't have much in common with the New England Patriots.

And Thomas Dewey with his nefarious little mustache seems a poor match for the long-suffering Bengals. But Dewey was a solid pre-election favorite just as the Bengals were on Sunday night. Here is the DVOA and VOA breakdown for Sunday night.

The Patriots offense comes out as the highest graded unit of the night, with or without opponent adjustments. After entering the game with the best pass defense DVOA by a parsec, the Bengals had a 60.4% pass defense DVOA on Sunday night. Their run defense was closer to average at 2.6%. Since run defense usually comes out negative, that number would rank 26th out of all teams through four weeks. The Patriots' run offense was even a little better than the basic stats would suggest at first glance due to seven runs/kneeldowns for Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo. The 36 carries for Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen went for 203 yards (5.6 YPC).

Because of the size of their lead before the game, the Bengals continue to hold the top spot in pass DVOA (-18.7%), and they actually inched out of the cellar on run defense (8.4%). They are now just ahead of Indianapolis. (These numbers will be updated on the team defense DVOA page later today.)

A Crazy Outlier after Big Losses

Since 1979, teams have covered the point spread by more than 17 points almost exactly 10 percent of the time. Going back to 2003, the New England Patriots have now done it half the time (5 out of 10) after losing the previous game by more than 14 points. We want to be cautious with this kind of split given the small sample size, but this is pretty remarkable given how rarely teams exceed expectations by so much. After big losses, since 2003, other teams have covered the spread by more than 17 points almost exactly 10 percent of the time. Only Miami, at 21 percent, has even cracked the 20 percent barrier.

To put how unusual this is into context, take an average team that beats the spread by 17-plus points exactly 10 percent of the time. What is the chance that team would beat the spread by 17-plus points five (or more) times out of ten? 0.2 percent! So this is a case where a small sample size really does tell us something. Over the last decade, the Patriots have been completely on their own island in their propensity for following big losses with surprisingly strong wins. And it looks like more than randomness. Note that I am counting 2008, too. If we only include the Brady era, following big losses the Patriots have beaten the point spread by more than 17 points four out of seven times.

Moreover, the games against the Chiefs and Bengals are reminiscent of the last time the Patriots lost a game by more than 14 points. In 2010, a mediocre Browns team hammered the Patriots 34-14 in Week 9. That game was most notable for Peyton Hillis gashing the Patriots' defense for 184 yards on 29 carries, including a game-clinching drive that featured six Hillis runs. But the more alarming thing for the Patriots was how bad the offense looked. They gained a little under 300 yards on the day and looked bad doing it. Against the Chiefs last week, it was a similar story. The Patriots gained a little under 300 yards and looked maybe even worse doing it.

The following game, both in 2010 and on Sunday, involved breakout performances from a Patriots tight end. After that Browns loss in 2010, the Patriots were 4.5-point underdogs and beat the Steelers 39-26 in Rob Gronkowski's coming-out party. After catching three touchdowns on passes of 5 yards or less through eight games, Gronkowski caught three touchdowns against the Steelers, including two longer ones. The play of the night was the 25-yard touchdown to Gronkowski on a corner route to seal the win.

Just as that game showed a newly potent Patriots offense based on a tight end stretching defenses, the Patriots may have started to unveil a new weapon at tight end on Sunday night.

Film Room: A New Threat at Tight End

Tim Wright had the same number of catches (five) and targets (five) against the Bengals as Gronkowski did in that 2010 game. He also had 13 more yards (85) to go with his one touchdown. Wright, the undrafted tight end whom the Patriots acquired in the Logan Mankins trade, still isn't seeing the field that much -- he appeared in just 22 percent of the offensive snaps on Sunday after being at 18 percent coming into the game -- but that is likely to change.

Wright has been remarkably efficient in his limited opportunities this year. He has been targeted ten times, catching nine passes for an average of 12 yards per target. No other Patriot is above 10 yards per target. Rob Gronkowski is at 6.8. On Sunday, the Patriots were good overall and even better with Wright on the field. On his 16 snaps before the fourth quarter while the game was still competitive, the Patriots averaged 10.8 yards per play.

Those 16 plays included three throws down the left seam, each of which resulted in a big gain to a wide-open Wright. The first play saw the Bengals playing press man on the outside and zone on the inside. Wright lined up in a standing position just off left tackle Nate Solder. Brady had the protection to look right before finding Wright for 17 yards in the air and another 13 after the catch. On the second play, Wright lined up in a three-point stance, and fired out down the left seam. This one was Brady's best throw of the three, as he got it to Wright's outside shoulder before Leon Hall could close down from his outside zone, and he was coming fast with Michael Hoomanawanui the only receiver on the outside.

The third throw came early in the third quarter and showcased everything that looked better about the Patriots passing game compared to earlier weeks. It also showcased a surprising break from previous form for the league's best pass defense, as this pass was even easier than the other two.

With his number and his position, the comparisons of Wright to Aaron Hernandez are inevitable. But Wright is likely to play a somewhat different role. Three inches taller and 25 pounds lighter, he probably won't be lining up at running back. With his bigger catch radius, though, Wright may offer even more potential as a seam-stretcher. The throws don't need to be as open as they were on Sunday for Brady to hit a target like Wright. And with those seams suitably stretched, the Patriots may find breathing room for the short passes that have put them at the top of offensive DVOA for a decade.