Any Given Sunday: Raiders Over Broncos

by Andrew Healy

If you're an optimist, the Raiders' 15-12 upset of the Broncos set new standards for defensive dominance. Excluding quarterback kneels, the two defenses gave up a combined 65 yards on 40 rushing attempts. Never before in NFL history had both teams averaged under 1.65 yards per attempt on the ground. (Hat tip to Scott Kacsmar for that nugget.) Denver, ranked No. 1 in defensive DVOA, allowed minus-12 net yards to the Raiders in the first half, the lowest total by our reckoning since at least 1986. On the other side, Khalil Mack took a huge step towards joining the previously single-occupant J.J. Watt class, with five second-half sacks and seven more quarterback hits.

If you're a realist, you could see a likely playoff loss looming in the Broncos' second-half offensive struggles, when they were shut out by the defense that entered Sunday ranked just 22nd in DVOA. But even the most dyed-in-the-wool pessimist would recognize that Mack had as much to do with Denver's offensive woes as Brock Osweiler did. Even a double-team wasn't going to stop Mack on his fourth sack, seen below. So give Mack credit for the trucking here. Never has an NFL player had a more appropriate name for any one play.

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In addition, I have two other Mack attacks where Osweiler likely should not get any blame. On his first sack, Osweiler took a step into Mack's arms, but he was getting pressure up the middle that pushed him that way. On Mack's third sack, another bull rush ended with Mack in Osweiler's lap.

But it's on the other two sacks where I think Osweiler is part of the problem, although it's debatable on both plays. On the late third-quarter sack that set up the safety, you can see the space in front of Osweiler, space into which a faster-reacting, more pocket-aware quarterback would likely have stepped up.

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Mack's fifth sack, which came on Denver's final drive, looks very similar to many other quarterback sacks, and the temptation is to pin it all on Mack beating right tackle Michael Schofield. But again, there's space in front of Osweiler that he could have used instead of scrambling left, particularly if he reacted to the closing Mack a split-second earlier. Instead, he allows Mack to continue right on his path, getting into a race Osweiler has no chance to win.

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And if these plays are only suggestive of a potential problem. The Broncos' last offensive play shows how far Osweiler has to go with regards to pocket awareness. On this play, Mack showed some mercy and oddly dropped into a short zone even though it was fourth-and-12. So the Raiders rushed just two and they didn't really get close to Osweiler -- until, that is, Osweiler left his clean pocket and ran right into defensive end Denico Autry. In those last couple of seconds in the GIF, it almost looks like Osweiler tackles Autry, with the lineman getting driven to the ground first.

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Osweiler's struggles with pocket awareness and sacks extend beyond Sunday's second half, too. With mostly the same surrounding players, Peyton Manning was sacked 15 times in 340 dropbacks, a rate of 4.4 percent that's roughly half Osweiler's (17 sacks in 190 dropbacks, 8.9 percent). Just as interceptions were Manning's primary weakness in 2015, sacks are one of the two main reasons Osweiler's DVOA (-4.8%) is below zero.

The other main reason is Osweiler's inability to throw downfield. As much as Manning has been maligned for his noodle-arm woes, it's actually Osweiler who has struggled the most on passes traveling 15 yards or further in the air. Amongst quarterbacks with at least 15 attempts, Osweiler has the worst DVOA in the league on deep passes.

(Note that the overall league averages are so high because passes are more efficient than runs, and because sacks are excluded here.)

Osweiler is close to the ultimate dinker-and-dunker. Among quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts, only Matt Ryan has thrown a lower share of his passes deep than Osweiler. While some of that is play-calling choices, those choices also reflect Osweiler's shortcomings. Even with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders at receiver, the Broncos rarely succeed on the rare occasions they do throw downfield.

It's the combination of Osweiler's tendencies to take sacks and to throw short that is so concerning. A few successful quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger have taken lots of sacks, but they were also getting the upside of big plays downfield. At the same time, other guys like Tom Brady and Matt Ryan throw short more often than average, but they also take few sacks. For this season at least, Osweiler is little more than an interception-avoider who has trouble getting through progressions, a poor man's Alex Smith.

His inability to throw deep also influences the running game, as defensive backs can play closer to the line of scrimmage. In part because of the running game's struggles, the offense has been no more efficient under Osweiler (-15.0% DVOA) than it was under Manning (-13.5%). And that leaves the Broncos with a quarterback dilemma with two unpromising options. For 2015, it might be even less likely that Osweiler develops the necessary rapid-fire decision-making skills than that Manning rediscovers just enough of his physical skills to get through a few playoff weeks.

Great Defenses Going it Alone

Six weeks ago, we covered Denver's historically great defense after its upset of the Packers. At that point, they ranked as the No. 4 defense through Week 8. After a couple of mediocre games -- against Indianapolis, primarily -- the Broncos have once again returned to dominance over the last couple weeks and they are again No. 4 through Week 14.

The Broncos' defense is far from the first great one to be saddled with an inefficient offense. Seven of the top ten defenses above had an offense that ranked No. 20 or worse. Two of the previous six won the Super Bowl: the 2002 Bucs and the 2008 Steelers. But the other two defenses that, like this year's Broncos, were saddled with offenses outside the top 25 (the 1991 Eagles and 2012 Bears) didn't even make the playoffs. Even with a defense this suffocating, the Broncos need to squeeze a little more out of the offense to have a chance in January.

By the VOA

Depending on your perspective, it was either the second-best defensive day of the season by DVOA -- the two defenses had a combined DVOA of -80.9% -- or the third-worst offensive day, with the two offenses putting up -76.1% together.

In the first half alone, the Broncos' defensive DVOA was -148.8%. By way of comparison, the best defensive performance in our data for a single game is -124.2%, by the Cleveland Browns in the first-ever week for DVOA in 1989. Even with the second-half shutout, the Raiders' -59.3% DVOA in the second half came in third for this week behind the second-half shutouts for the Patriots and Panthers.

The Keep Lookin' At Wins Stat of the Week

Khalil Mack had us at hello. SackSEER is far from perfect, but its big-time love for Mack -- who was its all-time favorite prospect over classmate Jadeveon Clowney -- certainly seems right on the money. In just his second season, Mack now leads the NFL with 14.0 sacks. If Mack can get one more sack over the last three weeks, per pro-football-reference.com, he will become the tenth player since sacks became an official stat to record at least 15 sacks in his first or second year.

Four of the five retired players on that list are Hall-of-Famers. J.J. Watt seems likely to make it at least five. And like Watt, Mack does much more than rack up sacks in an era when teams pass it more often. After Sunday, Mack moved into a tie for fourth place with 28 defeats (a stat which combines tackles for a loss, a play to prevent a conversion on third or fourth down, or any play leading to a turnover).

With nine sacks and 13 defeats in his last three games, this holiday season has doubled as the Khalil Mack coming-out party. Offensive game plans against the Raiders will never be the same.