Have Tua Tagovailoa and Miami Dolphins Been Figured Out?

NFL Week 14 - For weeks, NFL Twitter has been dominated by a certain debate pitting two third-year quarterbacks against each other, spearheaded by FS1's Emmanuel Acho (and recently stoked by our own Mike Tanier). Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins and Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers have been inextricably linked in an argument of who's the better player. When the Dolphins-Chargers game was flexed into Sunday Night Football, football nerds, takesmiths, and terminally online sickos all rejoiced. This matchup was framed as a once-and-for-all way to settle this mind-numbing back-and-forth.

The only thing answered by the Chargers' 23-17 win over Miami is this: in a landscape of hot takes, nuance is boring, but it usually wins out in the long run.

Part of the reason this whole debate started was the Chargers' big underachievement this year, specifically on offense. Los Angeles has fallen from 12th to 26th in total DVOA year-over-year, with the offense posting its worst performance by DVOA in a decade. Much of that comes from the Joe Lombardi offensive scheme, on full display Sunday night. So much of Lombardi's passing offense is dependent on quick, out-breaking horizontal routes. While that's fine on the surface, it's done to a fault in Los Angeles. A prime example: the Chargers' first offensive drive. L.A. gets the ball on first-and-goal from the 5-yard-line. After a first-down run, the Chargers run three straight pass plays. None of them target the end zone. Two were thrown behind the line of scrimmage. Herbert ranks 25th among quarterbacks in ALEX, not for a lack of talent, but rather by design.

That being said, while playing within that system, Herbert played great on Sunday night. On many occasions, the Chargers quarterback was put under pressure by a Miami pass rush taking advantage of a banged-up offensive line. According to Pro Football Reference, the Dolphins used 26 blitzes on Sunday, the most Herbert has seen this year. In a season where he has consistently drawn pressure rates north of 20%, Miami's 15 forced pressures finished tied for the third most Herbert has faced in a game this season. Yet time and time again, Herbert escaped the pocket, rolled out to one side, and expertly placed balls along the sideline. It's a lot of effort for chunk gains, but Herbert looked great doing it

It certainly helped to have players like Mike Williams healthy. Williams, who missed four of the last five games with injury, has been one of many Chargers receivers to miss time this year. Just DeAndre Carter has appeared in all 13 games this season, joining Austin Ekeler, tight end Tre' McKitty, and fullback Zander Horvath as the only skill position players to share that achievement. Williams and Keenan Allen are the dynamic duo of this Chargers receiving corps, two $20-million-per-year receivers that complement each other in skill set. On paper, Allen is the precision route-runner perfect for these shorter crossing routes, while Williams is the big-bodied vertical passing threat. Injuries have all but ruined that on-paper plan. Allen has been hampered by a hamstring injury, his recent routes showing every bit of his 30 years. Williams has battled ankle injuries in recent weeks, but his mere presence is a boost for Herbert.

Take the Chargers' first touchdown of the game. Herbert runs play-action and bootlegs out to the open side of the field. Miami is running a two-high defense with zone underneath. Williams cuts through the zone, but Kader Kohou is covering the area just in front of where Williams' route is taking him. Herbert is forced to loft the ball into the back of the end zone. Of the Chargers receivers, no one matches Williams at 6-foot-4. While tight ends Gerald Everett and McKitty may come close in height, neither has the dexterity to reel this ball in and secure the touchdown with the toe-tap.

It also helps to have a player like Ekeler in the Lombardi offense. Few players are as singularly important to their offense this season as Ekeler is to the Chargers. While he doesn't come close to the bellcow status of a Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, or Saquon Barkley, Ekeler is the epitome of dual-threat. Ekeler's 112 targets and 93 receptions are both in the top 10 among all players, and most among running backs. His 153 rushing attempts barely cracks the top 20, but he accounts for 61.9% of all Chargers rushes by running backs or fullbacks (Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel are tied for second with 36 apiece). According to Stathead, Ekeler is seven receptions shy of becoming the fourth player in NFL history to finish with 100 rushing attempts and 100 receptions in a single season. He is also on pace to be the first such player without 1,000 yards in either category. Despite the lack of efficiency (he is on pace for career lows in rushing and receiving DVOA), Ekeler is the ever-reliable option in this offense. With 23 touches on Sunday night—15 carries and eight receptions—only Herbert touched the ball more for the Chargers.

The problem is that even with the injuries, the Chargers passing offense shouldn't have to be so reliant on Ekeler. It shouldn't have to rely on short passing at all, for that matter. The Tua-versus-Herbert debate was so contentious to begin with because prior to this season, Herbert had put up two years of great stats and good tape. However, Herbert's average air yards per attempt has dropped by more than a full yard year-over-year. Pro Football Reference notes that Herbert is second in passing yards but 27th in yards per attempt, barely outpaced by the likes of Matt Ryan and Zach Wilson. His DVOA and DYAR are both on pace for career lows, as is his QBR. There are valid criticisms in both Herbert's game and in the fact that he was anointed as "the next big thing" by many despite having a losing career record and never making the postseason. But people go to bat so fervently for Herbert because, even within this tepid offense, Herbert can execute as well as any quarterback in the league. And when Lombardi does loosen the leash and open up the playbook, Herbert does this:

While many anticipated a potential Herbert redemption tour, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley had one of his own against the Dolphins. The defense-minded head coach who was once beloved for his fourth-down decision-making in 2021 had fallen out of favor this season. After an offseason of marquee acquisitions in Khalil Mack, J.C. Jackson, and Sebastian Joseph-Day, Los Angeles' defensive improvement has not lived up to its preseason billing. Yet, just days after reports broke that retired head coach Sean Payton was eyeing his job, Staley opened one of his most impressive defensive game plans of the season.

The Los Angeles Chargers defense put on a master class against the league's best passing offense by DVOA through 13 weeks. Tagovailoa finished the game with a statline that sticks out like a sore thumb from the rest of his games this season: 10-for-28 for 145 yards and a touchdown. In terms of games Tua has started and finished, the Chargers held the Dolphins quarterback to his fewest passing attempts, passing yards, and yards per attempt of the season while also forcing the lowest completion percentage of his career in a full start.

Staley's central game plan was to make the league-leader in passing DVOA earn his yards. For big stretches of the game, the Chargers rode Miami receivers in press-man coverages. Michael Davis had a night against Tyreek Hill, jamming him at the line of scrimmage and staying in coverage nearly every step of the way. According to Sports Info Solutions, Davis allowed just three receptions on a season-high nine targets. And 60 of the 74 yards he allowed came on the Dolphins' lone passing touchdown of the night—a deep ball to Hill where Davis slipped in coverage. Allowing plays like that are the perils of press-man coverage, but beyond that one play, Davis did well holding Hill up in coverage with relentless physicality at the line of scrimmage.

Even when they tried to get Hill open through jet motion, the Chargers ensured they took away the thing Tua and Mike McDaniel want most on a play like this: the middle of the field. Tagovailoa has a league-leading 998 DYAR when throwing to the middle of the field. It's what the new-look Miami offense is built off. For the second week in a row, a defense has taken it away, and it has resulted in a loss. In Week 13, the San Francisco ran a ton of Cover-2 and Cover-6 concepts, with Fred Warner lurking in coverage over the middle. This caused processing issues that slowed down the Dolphins offense. Tagovailoa finished the day with a 54.5% completion rate, two interceptions, three sacks, and a lost fumble in what had been Miami's worst game by passing DVOA before Sunday night.

This week, while the Chargers did mix in some zone coverages, most of their defensive looks came through man. In those man routes, the Chargers leveraged Dolphins receivers away from the middle of the field. Los Angeles was willing to ride Dolphins defenders out away from the middle of the field and toward the sideline because they were confident Tagovailoa could not make the throw to that area. Adding some extra safety help to the center of the field means that Tagovailoa needs to look elsewhere on this route; the middle of the field is a sea of powder blue jerseys. But the ball is thrown anyway, because the middle has been open for the Dolphins all year, and before the snap that coverage showed the middle of the field was open.

Staley also threw in post-snap shifts in coverage to further force Tagovailoa adjust his reads after the snap. Some looks ended up radically shifting the defense for the Chargers. This play started with five L.A. jerseys rolled up to the line of scrimmage before linebacker Drue Tranquill bailed at the snap of the ball, becoming the lone deep man in coverage.

It helps that Kyle Van Noy put Terron Armstead in a blender for his first sack of the year, but the curveballs in post-snap coverage were a problem for the Dolphins all night.

The Chargers defense ran Cover-2, 6 or 2 Man against twelve Dolphins dropbacks in passing down situations (2nd & 7+/3rd & 3+). Often featuring late movement at the snap.

Tua Tagovailoa on those dropbacks:

2/10, 21 yards, 2 sacks, 1 first down.

(data via @TruMediaSports) pic.twitter.com/YtkD1QLy0e

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 12, 2022

By the DVOA

This is the worst game by total offensive DVOA that Miami has had all season, only slightly out-doing their Week 13 performance against the San Francisco 49ers (-22.2%). One of the places Miami was consistently stymied all night was on third down. The Dolphins are currently second in the league by DVOA on third-/fourth-down passing, yet they finished 3-for-11 converting third downs on Sunday night.

This is the best Chargers performance by defensive DVOA since Week 1, ranking third best among their games under Staley.

Has the Clock Struck Midnight on Phin-derella?

The Miami Dolphins did not magically turn into a pumpkin after two straight bad passing games. While the MVP hype for Tagovailoa may have quieted down a bit, the Dolphins are still a top-10 team by total DVOA, making the playoffs in over 75% of our simulations. That being said, every new-look offense gets to this point: they get counter-punched. The question is, is there a counter to the counter-punch?

There were open runs for the Dolphins on Sunday night, with Miami averaging nearly 5 yards per carry on 19 attempts. Tua ended up tying his season-high for scrambles, a feature that used to be a much bigger part of his game prior to this year. This should be McDaniel's bread and butter, seeing as he was the 49ers' run game coordinator for three years before taking over as offensive coordinator in 2021. Miami has yet to rely heavily on a rushing attack, but it was open most of the time against the Chargers.

The real problem, though, comes from the passing attack. Rushing can't be the answer. It can certainly help at times, but it can't be a catch-all panacea on a team built to attack through the air. Miami's adjustment against San Francisco came in the form of quick passes to the flats. That can serve situationally, getting the ball out into space, when a defense approaches Miami the way the 49ers did: lots of two-high, zone-heavy looks with emphasis covering the middle of the field.

Some fault lies with Tagovailoa. According to RBSDM, Tagovailoa led all quarterbacks (min. 100 plays) in completion percentage over expected through Week 12 at 5.6%. Over the last two weeks, Tagovailoa had a CPOE of -13.7%. That's just shy of a 20-point swing in expected accuracy. The Chargers were outright willing to give him the outside of the field in the confidence he wasn't going to make the throws necessary to beat them. Whether it is a question of arm strength, accuracy, or a combination of the two for that sideline hole shot, they bet against Tagovailoa being able to adjust his game, and they won big.

This isn't any sort of Tua "fraud watch," mind you. The quarterback has made genuine strides over the course of the season, looking leaps and bounds better than he did in his first two years in the league. It's just that the five-game stretch of playing a banged-up Steelers defense followed by the Lions, Bears, Browns, and Texans is over. The level of competition is ramping up, and it only gets harder from here. Miami has to play through the rest of their division one more time before the regular season ends, and each of those teams ranks in the top six of defensive DVOA.

Two of those games are on the road in Buffalo and New England in the dead of winter. Miami reportedly had space heaters on the sideline for their game against the Chargers. It was in the mid-50s in Los Angeles over the weekend. Buffalo is expecting around four inches of snow this Sunday. These are going to be adverse conditions for the Dolphins, an additional adjustment to make on top of having to rework their offense. This is crunch time for a Dolphins offense that has impressed early in the season. Whether or not they can make the necessary offensive adjustments is what separates Miami from true contention. Buffalo, Kansas City, and Cincinnati all have those wrinkles or second gears for defenses. Finding the counter-punch to the counter-punch will determine whether the Dolphins even have an argument to rank with those contenders.