Football Outsiders

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DVOA Ratings

Super Bowl LIII DVOA/Quick Reads
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Super Bowl LIII DVOA/Quick Reads

The Patriots have one of their best Super Bowl performances by DVOA, and one of the top defensive Super Bowls we've tracked. As you can imagine, all that defense also means the Quick Reads totals are pretty negative, unless you happened to win Super Bowl MVP.

68 comments, Last at 09 Feb 2019, 8:30pm by Will Allen

Audibles

Super Bowl LIII Audibles
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Super Bowl LIII Audibles

The NFL's highest-scoring season ever ends with a whimper, not a bang. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick win their sixth rings, Julian Edelman wins the MVP, and Wade Phillips wins respect, but the Rams offense fails to show up.

233 comments, Last at 13 Feb 2019, 1:08pm by bravehoptoad

Game Previews

Super Bowl LIII Preview
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Super Bowl LIII Preview

Two teams with very strong offensive lines, a lot of play-action passes, and trouble stopping the run. Youth will take on experience, both at the quarterback position and the head coach position. The closest Super Bowl matchup we've ever measured using weighted DVOA. Where does each team have an advantage when the Los Angeles Rams take on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII?

74 comments, Last at 03 Feb 2019, 3:49pm by Alternator

Week in Quotes

The Week In Quotes: February 1, 2019
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The Week In Quotes: February 1, 2019

It's Media Week at the Super Bowl, including quotes about Tom Brady's decline (or lack thereof); potential retirements in New England's future; the fate of former Georgia running backs; and the problems besetting the Pittsburgh Steelers. Plus, questions on cats, math, and suites from a very special interviewer.

1 comment, Last at 02 Feb 2019, 1:10pm by Theo

Film Room

Film Room: NE Offense vs. LAR Defense
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Film Room: NE Offense vs. LAR Defense

Just when it seems as if every team in the league is spreading the field and putting the quarterback in shotgun, the Patriots are winning with an old-school attack. Derrik Klassen shows how fullbacks, tight ends, pre-snap motion, and play-action passing have been so effective for New England -- and why the Rams seem ill-prepared for such a scheme.

7 comments, Last at 01 Feb 2019, 3:17pm by RickD

Quick Reads

QR Bonus: Keys to Beating New England
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QR Bonus: Keys to Beating New England

Our analysis of the Patriots' worst games in 2018 makes one thing clear for the Rams: beat New England early, or you're not likely to beat them at all.

5 comments, Last at 31 Jan 2019, 3:49am by RobotBoy

Scramble

Scramble for the Ball: 2018 Keep Choppin' Wood Team
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Scramble for the Ball: 2018 Keep Choppin' Wood Team

Bryan and Andrew go through the worst of the worst to compile their Keep Choppin' Wood team for the 2018 season! Overpaid free-agent signings, draft busts, and unqualified starters beware; the KCW team sees all.

5 comments, Last at 02 Feb 2019, 4:00am by MC2

Stat Analysis

Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points
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Evaluating Goal-to-Go Strategy with Expected Points

Guest columnist Spencer Harrison looks at which plays are most and least successful at the goal line. Yes, the fade route is as bad as you think.

5 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2019, 6:37pm by PTORaven

Word Of Muth

Word of Muth: Super Rams
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Word of Muth: Super Rams

The L.A. Rams are headed to the Super Bowl, thanks in part to an offensive line that had a great night protecting Jared Goff. But it wasn't perfect. What did the Saints do that gave the Rams trouble, and will similar tactics work for New England in Atlanta?

7 comments, Last at 30 Jan 2019, 3:38pm by Guest789

Week in Quotes

The Week In Quotes: January 25, 2019
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

The Week In Quotes: January 25, 2019

This week: the Saints and Rams disagree on a certain referee's judgement call; the Patriots celebrate another Super Bowl berth; controversy surrounds the Eagles and their quarterback; Derek Carr wants to fight ESPN reporters; the Cowboys and their meddling owner; and player-on-mascot violence.

12 comments, Last at 30 Jan 2019, 1:59pm by serutan