Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Scramble

Scramble for the Ball: 16th Annual Prop Bets Extravaganza!
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Scramble for the Ball: 16th Annual Prop Bets Extravaganza!

A tradition like a number of others! Bryan and Andrew return to figure out if the Rams will ride Todd Gurley, if the Patriots are over the Gatorade dunking tradition, and whether or not we'll see a SpongeBob SquarePants shoutout at halftime.

17 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2019, 12:41pm by Theo

Film Room

Film Room: Goff vs. Patriots
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Film Room: Goff vs. Patriots

The New England Patriots used disguised blitzes and coverage schemes to pressure Philip Rivers and Patrick Mahomes and blanket all their receivers in their first two playoff wins. That could be bad news for the L.A. Rams and their quarterback, who struggled with blitz reads against the Saints.

19 comments, Last at 28 Jan 2019, 4:02pm by mehllageman56

Quick Reads

QR Bonus: Keys to Beating Los Angeles
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QR Bonus: Keys to Beating Los Angeles

The L.A. Rams are a great team, but they're not perfect. What weaknesses were exposed in their worst games this year, and how will New England be able to attack those flaws in the Super Bowl?

10 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2019, 3:44pm by Vincent Verhei

Clutch Encounters

Clutch Encounters: Conference Championships
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Clutch Encounters: Conference Championships

After a dull postseason, Championship Sunday produced two overtime games and two road upsets. The Chiefs join a growing list of offensive juggernauts paired with poor defenses that fell short of a ring. Also: was that the worst non-call ever in New Orleans, and what should the NFL do about expanding replay and overtime?

44 comments, Last at 23 Jan 2019, 8:17pm by dbt

Quick Reads

Conference Championships Quick Reads/DVOA Ratings
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Conference Championships Quick Reads/DVOA Ratings

The Patriots' path to the Super Bowl was paved by a trio of running backs -- none of whom was particularly good when you account for the terrible quality of Kansas City's defense. Plus, updated weighted DVOA points to the closest Super Bowl matchup we've ever seen.

36 comments, Last at 24 Jan 2019, 12:35pm by E

Audibles

Audibles at the Line: Conference Championships
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Audibles at the Line: Conference Championships

For the first time in history, both conference championship games go to overtime. The New England Patriots are in the Super Bowl, as they once again play an explosive Rams offense, led by an offensive genius head coach, in an NFC South dome. And, uh, how about that officiating?

223 comments, Last at 25 Jan 2019, 8:36am by Will Allen

Game Previews

NFC Championship Preview 2019
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NFC Championship Preview 2019

Hold that shootout narrative for a moment! Over the last three months, the New Orleans Saints are the one remaining NFL team that could really play good defense. That should lead them to a win over Los Angeles and a trip to Super Bowl LIII. But what if Drew Brees struggles like he has since the start of December? And what will the presence of Aqib Talib really mean for slowing down the unguardable Michael Thomas?

9 comments, Last at 20 Jan 2019, 6:54pm by LionInAZ

Game Previews

AFC Championship Preview 2019
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AFC Championship Preview 2019

Belichick. Reid. Brady. Mahomes. Gronkowski. Kelce. Edelman. Tyreek. Two bad defenses. The AFC Championship Game should be explosive. Will the Patriots reach the Super Bowl for the 11th time? Or will Kansas City bring the Lamar Hunt Trophy home?

34 comments, Last at 20 Jan 2019, 8:29pm by LionInAZ

Word Of Muth

Word of Muth: What Horseshoe?
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Word of Muth: What Horseshoe?

The Colts may wear a lucky charm on their helmets, but their offensive line suffered ill fortune against the Chiefs, being undone by teammate's mistakes and badly timed (and badly called) penalties. Still, Ben Muth finds plenty to like about their chances in 2019.

3 comments, Last at 18 Jan 2019, 1:43pm by turbohappy

Week in Quotes

The Week in Quotes: January 18, 2019
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The Week in Quotes: January 18, 2019

This week, there's a little about the Rams, Patriots, Eagles, Ravens, Chargers, and Packers, and then a whole lot about the Saints. Laissez les bon temps rouler.

1 comment, Last at 20 Jan 2019, 6:29pm by LionInAZ