Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis


Scramble for the Ball: Schaub in the Dark

It's the debut for new Scramble co-author Vivek, as he and Al discuss Atlanta's odd obsession with Michael Vick's backup, ask how many assistant coaches it is possible for Joe Gibbs to hire, and pass judgment on the auction-drafted fantasy teams of the other Football Outsiders. Plus, the return of Best Bets.

7th Day Adventure

Seventh Day Adventure: Serna Suicide Watch

Seventh Day Adventure is back for Week 2 as Vinny Gauri and Russell Levine analyze this week's college football slate, ponder the fate of Oregon State kicker Alexis Serna and discuss whether a plentiful supply of Munchos makes one well prepared for a nuclear disaster.

Black and Blue

Football Outsiders Interview: Will Carroll

Since Will Carroll began writing about baseball injuries, the word "medhead" has been added to the sports fan lexicon next to the word "stathead." We had a chance to ask Will to apply his knowledge to some of the NFL's high-profile preseason injuries, as well as players recovering from 2003 injuries. Learn why the labrum will not doom Rich Gannon as it did Robb Nen, why David Boston's injury was not too surprising, and why we can stop making Fred Taylor groin jokes.


2004 Season Predictions

Every season in the NFL, teams come from nowhere to make the playoffs and other teams collapse just as suddenly. And yet everyone who writes about football makes predictions before the season even though there is almost zero chance of picking the correct Super Bowl teams. Who are we to resist such peer pressure? Each member of the Football Outsiders staff picks 12 playoff teams, a Super Bowl matchup, and a few other surprises for 2004. Oh, and drunken monkeys love Bill Parcells.

DVOA Ratings

DVOA Re-introduced and Refined

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is the main statistic that Football Outsiders uses to rate both teams and players, but I know it can get confusing. You constantly see percentages and those four letters and have no idea what the heck we are talking about because you just discovered Football Outsiders yesterday. So for all those who have just started reading the site in the last couple of months, I wanted to give another explanation of how it works and why DVOA is better than standard NFL statistics. Plus, we've made various improvements to our numbers starting today, and those changes are described here.

4 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 8:54am by honda scooter 250cc


Everything Old is New Again

In which our fearless programmer explains the new site, how to find content, how to contribute to the discussions, and other detritus.


Confessions of a Football Junkie: Finally, Football

Russell looks back on bad coaching decisions of college football's first weekend and looks forward to the NFL season with some comments on why Sunday Ticket isn't on your cable system. Plus, Howard Schnellenberger is alive! (And still saying stupid things.)

1 comment, Last at 26 Jul 2005, 5:15pm by Rob

7th Day Adventure

Seventh Day Adventure: Labor Day Weekend

For football fans, there is no rest on the Seventh Day. With apologies to Scramble for the Ball, PTI, and anyone else we may have ripped off, we present our newest weekly column, Seventh Day Adventure. Each Thursday, Russell (you know him from Confessions of a Football Junkie) and Vinny (he's new) will break down the week's biggest college football games in that special Football Outsiders style. No, not the math-heavy Football Outsiders style, the acerbic Football Outsiders style. We have two styles, much like J. Edgar Hoover.

Stat Analysis

Empty Backfield

When Ricky Williams retired last month, it was thought to be a massive blow to the Miami Dolphins. It was, but only emotionally. The team on the field might actually be better. In this article from, Aaron explains why the star running back is the most overrated player in football and makes the case for running back by committee.

DVOA Ratings

DVOA Projections Mailbag

In which many of the questions posed by readers about the 2004 DVOA projections are answered in one fell swoop. (What the heck is a "fell swoop" anyway? Can you have two fell swoops?)