Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

DVOA Ratings

In Focus: AFC North

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. The NFL says the Cincinnati Bengals ranked #17 in defense; we say they ranked #31. The difference demonstrates how our stats seek to remove situational bias. Plus: Tommy Maddox, fluke or not? We look at past players who have come back after long periods away from the NFL.

Stat Analysis

Falling Short of the Stick

How angry do you get when the coach of your favorite team calls an 8-yard pass on 3rd-and-9? Ever wonder how often your team does that? We've actually found a stat where Arizona is the best team in the NFL...

Scramble

Scramble for the Ball: Auction Action

Ian and Al review their fantasy football auction. Running backs went for a pretty penny, and the bottom dropped out of the wide receiver market. Plus, Week 1 Best Bets.

DVOA Ratings

In Focus: AFC South

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Does Eddie George really get the tough yards when it counts? Why should teams save their best defensive plays to show Payton Manning after halftime?

Ramblings

Football Outsiders 2003 Season Predictions

Our new objective prediction formula, based on DVOA and strength of schedule, says Seattle will win the NFC West and the Giants miss the playoffs. The individual Outsiders each give their own predictions, and they aren't so sure the computer is right. It's man vs. machine (vs. man vs. man vs. man vs. man vs. man vs. man vs. man).

1 comment, Last at 12 Aug 2005, 1:17am by HLF

DVOA Ratings

In Focus: NFC West

All four NFC West teams have the same problem, one they share with a lot of other teams. Why do so many offenses rush more in one direction even though they gain far more yards per carry in the other direction? Do coaches just have no idea about team strengths? Plus, more notes on what our new stats say about the Cards, Rams, Niners, and Seahawks.

DVOA Ratings

In Focus: NFC South

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. How screwed are the Falcons by Michael Vick's injury? How amazing is the Bucs defense, and what is their secret weakness?

DVOA Ratings

In Focus: AFC West

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Which side of the great Denver o-line is best? Which AFC West offense specializes in plays up the middle, and which AFC West offense avoids the middle?

Scramble

Scramble for the Ball: 2003 Survivor Draft

What kind of insane football fans hold their own fantasy draft two months before the season, each picking six different teams? Our own Ian and Al, that's who.

Stat Analysis

Quarterbacks and Favorite Receivers

Some teams showed completely different pass offenses with two different quarterbacks in 2002. If one of those quarterbacks is now out of the picture, what does that mean for those teams and their offensive efficiency... not to mention your fantasy draft? (No, Vick is not included, since the only WR that had a different value with Doug Johnson was Shawn Jefferson, no longer in Atlanta.)