Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

DVOA Ratings

In Focus: NFC South

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. How screwed are the Falcons by Michael Vick's injury? How amazing is the Bucs defense, and what is their secret weakness?

DVOA Ratings

In Focus: AFC West

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Which side of the great Denver o-line is best? Which AFC West offense specializes in plays up the middle, and which AFC West offense avoids the middle?


Scramble for the Ball: 2003 Survivor Draft

What kind of insane football fans hold their own fantasy draft two months before the season, each picking six different teams? Our own Ian and Al, that's who.

Stat Analysis

Quarterbacks and Favorite Receivers

Some teams showed completely different pass offenses with two different quarterbacks in 2002. If one of those quarterbacks is now out of the picture, what does that mean for those teams and their offensive efficiency... not to mention your fantasy draft? (No, Vick is not included, since the only WR that had a different value with Doug Johnson was Shawn Jefferson, no longer in Atlanta.)

DVOA Ratings

In Focus: NFC East

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Is Jeremy Shockey really an average TE? Are NFC East QBs headed for trouble this year? What makes Philly's rush D so good?

Stat Analysis

Pythagoras Grades the Coaches

Which coaches win the close ones? We rank the last 20 years of coaches based on the ability to win more games than expected based on point differential. The top coaches have something unexpected in common... and the coach at the bottom is even more surprising.

3 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2007, 2:45am by Len

Stat Analysis

Do 2003 Schedule Changes Affect Fantasy Football Value?

Which players face easier or harder fantasy schedules this year? Do schedule changes year to year affect fantasy value more than real value, or vice versa?


Scramble for the Ball: Series Premiere

Welcome to the first edition of a weekly column here at Football Outsiders, Scramble for the Ball. Each week Ian and Al will take a look at what's going on in the NFL from a fan perspective, including fantasy football advice, office pool picks, and players we love and hate.


Welcome to!

Football Outsiders is unlike any football site you've ever seen on the web. So what makes us different?

Stat Analysis

Pythagoras on the Gridiron

In baseball, the Pythgorean Theorem says runs scored and allowed can predict a team's record. Does it work for football too? You bet, and it says some interesting things about teams that don't match their predictions. Pay attention, Chiefs fans.