Audibles at the Line: Wild-Card Round

compiled by Andrew Potter

Each Sunday, the FO staff sends around emails about the games that each of us are watching. We share information about the games that the rest of the group might not be watching, ask questions, and keep everyone else informed about which games they might want to turn into (if they can).

On Monday, we compile a digest of those emails and produce this feature. By its nature, it can be disjointed and dissimilar to the other articles on the site.

While these emails are generally written with Audibles in mind, they do not represent a standard review of all the games each week. That means we aren't going to cover every game, or every important play. We watch the games that we, as fans, are interested in watching, so your favorite team's game might not be covered to your fullest desires or even at all. (If you are a Steelers or Patriots fan, you are probably in luck; if you are a Bills fan, not so much.) We have no intention of adding new authors to cover every game on a given Sunday, nor will we watch a different game from the ones that we're personally interested in watching, just to ensure that Audibles covers every game.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 at Houston Texans 0

Scott Kacsmar: Of course Knile Davis returns the opening kickoff for a touchdown against the 32nd-ranked special teams, but that was not the strength of the Chiefs or the weakness of Houston this year. I was actually going to mention Knile Davis being the only return threat left with De'Anthony Thomas on injured reserve, but I figured 400 words about special teams were enough in our preview. Davis' longest kick return was 54 yards this year, but like I said, Nick Novak gives teams opportunities for returns with his bad kickoffs. The punting mismatch was the real focus, and the Chiefs would have had another good return to midfield if not for a penalty.

Sterling Xie: Ironically, kickoff coverage was supposed to be the best part of Houston's otherwise horrid special teams. Texans were 1 point above average during the regular season.

Aaron Schatz: The Texans' running game is going nowhere and is going to go nowhere against this Chiefs' defense. There's going to be a lot of third-and-longs. The Texans get in one early and... Brian Hoyer throws a pick. But, no, why shouldn't Alex Smith throw one of his own on the immediate next play?

That being said, I would much rather have Alex Smith slightly throwing behind his receiver for a deflected pick than Brian Hoyer's "I have no idea what I'm looking at here" pick that went straight into the arms of Eric Berry, nowhere near the intended receiver.

Vince Verhei: I was very excited for the game to start because it meant the terrible regular season was finally over. Then in the first quarter we got:

• Completely blown kickoff coverage where no Texan got within diving distance of Knile Davis.

  Solid kick coverage here IMO. pic.twitter.com/vuKXLFnzYI

  — Isaac (@WorldofIsaac) January 9, 2016

• Alex Smith in a clean pocket completely overthrowing Albert Wilson on what should have been a long touchdown pass.
• Brian Hoyer throwing an interception right to Eric Berry with no receiver in sight.
• Smith throwing late and behind his man, leading to another interception.
• Hoyer fumbling when blindside tackle Chris Clark was bullrushed into his back. I mean, it wasn't technically an unforced fumble, but no defender touched Hoyer on the play.

It's like the regular season is still going!

Andrew Potter: Seriously considered suggesting J.J. Watt as a tight end for the playoff fantasy competition, for exactly that kind of madness. Jonathan Grimes direct snap, Watt on offense -- all we're missing now is a Cecil Shorts pass attempt.

And this isn't a special something the Texans have pulled out for the playoffs, a la New England against Baltimore. This is Houston's regular offense.

Tom Gower: I don't know quite what to say about that Texans goal-to-go sequence, with J.J. Watt taking a direct snap that had basically no chance of working and Brian Hoyer trying to force a throw through two defenders short of the goal line on second down, but none of it is good. I don't have an issue with their direct snap plays, since the run game was working and it had just worked, but that didn't feel like a play to run down 10-0 when you were having some actual success.

Cian Fahey: I don't rate Bill O'Brien as a head coach, and this need to appease J.J. Watt's vanity is a reason why. That play call at the goal line was disgustingly bad. It wasn't even a misdirection play, O'Brien put Watt in a situation where he needed to show off the burst of a running back to get to the line of scrimmage. Amateur.

Scott Kacsmar: Boos for Hoyer and I really don't know how O'Brien can justify keeping him in the game. He looks lost, not all of the turnovers were even a result of pressure, and several of his completions were just great catches by DeAndre Hopkins. If it wasn't for the kickoff coverage to start the game, I would say this is as close as it gets to a player single-handedly blowing a game for his team.

Aaron Schatz: Through the first half, the Chiefs just look better than the Texans in pretty much every way. The holes for the running backs are bigger, even though Alfred Blue did have that one really long run for Houston. The receivers seem more open, though Alex Smith can't always hit them. The pass rush is better. The special teams are better. Honestly, Alex Smith's limitations are the reason this team only has six points on offense, but his limitations are nothing compared to Hoyer's limitations.

Still, if I'm a defensive player for the Broncos or Patriots, I'm really not very worried after watching that first half.

Scott Kacsmar: Smith even broke some of this third-and-long ALEX tendencies, but missed both throws by a small margin. Still, this reminds me a little of his only playoff win against the Saints in 2011. Got spotted so many turnovers and the offense is still barely limping around. You expect to score more than six points if you get four takeaways in a half. 13-0 looks daunting, but Houston has really shot itself in the foot today, and that's just kind of how Kansas City has been playing during this streak. Take advantage of the other team's mistakes.

Vince Verhei: And seven of those 13 points came on special teams! Take away turnovers and special teams and it has been a very even game.

It's hard to find much to say here that isn't really obvious. Chiefs should be killing Houston, but they're 1-of-6 on third down, and that's not just Smith -- they have failures in short-yardage runs too. But the Houston offense has been such a disaster. Their best chance to win is just pick the quarterback with the strongest arm and lob 20 deep balls in the second half, because they're not putting together multiple long scoring drives.

Tom Gower: Kansas City Chiefs finally make it to the red zone (their field goals were both 49-yarders), and Chris Conley finishes the drive in the end zone despite Kareem Jackson contesting it. At 20-0 in the third quarter, this really does feel over.

Aaron Schatz: Houston's offense is so bad that even Jon Gruden is basically limited to just saying "Houston has only one good offensive player and they really should try to get him the ball."

Scott Kacsmar: Welp, we're at the point where Jon Gruden, a coaching candidate in the eyes of some, is talking about "did he win?" as his first step in evaluating a quarterback. Then he asked what the 49ers have to be thinking right now since Alex Smith almost took them to a Super Bowl. Never mind the fact that Colin Kaepernick actually did take them to a Super Bowl and another NFC Championship Game one year later. I would still take Kaepernick over Smith going forward.

Andrew Healy: Since the merger, only three quarterbacks have put together ratings lower than Hoyer's 15.9 on at least 30 attempts in the playoffs:

• Kerry Collins in the Super Bowl against the Ravens (7.1);
• Stan Humphries in a 31-0 loss to the Dolphins in 1993 (11.6);
• and Richard Todd in the Mud Bowl/1982 AFC championship game (8.8).

Like the 1982 Dolphins or 2000 Ravens, the opposition explains a big part of the offensive meltdown for the Texans. (The 1993 Dolphins, oddly enough, were only 21st in defensive DVOA in a 28-team league.)

Love when the Mud Bowl comes up. Still drives middle-aged Jets fans crazy.

Scott Kacsmar: Even in a regular-season context that was a major dud of a game from Houston. Only real concern for Kansas City was the Jeremy Maclin injury that looked serious. Travis Kelce will have to come up huge again. Albert Wilson is not a bad receiver, but rookie Chris Conley might have to be the guy who steps up the most for this offense. Also believe Spencer Ware is the best running back on this roster.

Vince Verhei: Somebody suggested on Twitter that Watt's injury didn't make an impact, so I did the math. Chiefs averaged 4.7 yards a play before Watt got hurt, 5.7 after.

Pittsburgh Steelers 18 at Cincinnati Bengals 16

Andrew Healy: After one very tentative carry, I feel pretty good about mega-locking Fitzgerald Toussaint under 57.5 rushing yards:

The niece and nephews like Fitzgerald Toussaint under 57.5 rushing yards today

— Andrew Healy (@AndHealy) January 9, 2016

After a second much better carry, maybe we need a bigger sample.

First, what a great double-spin play by Tyler Eifert to get a first down on third-and-11 on the Bengals' second drive. Would have been a great statement for Marvin Lewis to go for it on fourth-and-3 from the Steelers' 38-yard line. Beating a dead horse, of course.

And the Steelers have 50 rushing yards after one, in a victory for the proponents of running back fungibility. Both Jordan Todman and Fitzgerald Toussaint look more than good enough. Great energy so far on both sides.

Scott Kacsmar: I don't think Vince gave the 2015 regular season enough appreciation if these five quarters of the playoffs are any indication of what's coming. Then again, questionable AFC playoff field playing like this is not so surprising.

Toussaint has looked pretty good when he's not getting crushed in the backfield. Jordan Todman also looks pretty explosive. Maybe the Steelers can just run their normal offense -- get some play-action shots in there -- instead of this "get Hines Ward to 1,000 catches"-looking screen game.

Vince Verhei: Well that was a fast first quarter. Steelers look terrified of Cincinnati's pass rush. They have four completions that gained 5 yards or less, and a 27-yarder to Toussaint that had about 22 yards after the catch. Not even trying middle- or long-range passes.

And then Ben Roethlisberger gets sacked early in the third, so they had good reason to be afraid.

Andrew Healy: And one of the Bengals' best players goes down on that sack, with Reggie Nelson getting the sack by hurting his leg when he stepped on Vincent Rey. Big play forcing a Steelers punt, so a potentially big injury on a big play for the Bengals. Echoes of 2005.

If Nelson is out, that is huge. The Bengals were far and away the best defense against the deep pass, which may be why the Steelers haven't been trying to do it. If Nelson can't go, and it didn't look good, that all changes.

Vince Verhei: Yeah, but it's not just that the Steelers aren't trying 20-yard patterns. They're not even in the 8- or 12-yard range. It's just screen, slant, flat, screen, slant, flat…

Aaron Schatz: I wish I could see better what the Bengals were doing with the safeties. Maybe that explains all these short passes.

Vince Verhei: Unless they are playing six safeties, there is no excuse for this play calling.

Sterling Xie: It seems fitting that the two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in this game have come from people who weren't even on the field of play. Mike Munchak got one for grabbing Reggie Nelson's hair when Nelson made a borderline late hit out of bounds, and now Domata Peko apparently ran onto the field (in one of those massive capes no less) and shoved a Steelers player.

On the next play, a Markus Wheaton fumble gives us our first drive that doesn't end in a punt. What a game from two top-five DVOA offenses.

Aaron Schatz: And then A.J. McCarron underthrows a rainbow deep for a pick. I know part of that was probably a wet ball slipping a little in his hand, but still, that throw was brutal.

And hey! Actual downfield pass to Antonio Brown on the next drive! 23 yards on second-and-25!

Andrew Healy: And Shawn Williams was a beat late on that throw. Very possible Nelson stops that one.

By the way, that McCarron interception was the Bengals' only deep pass so far. It was a terrible throw and it's raining, but that's still both a Bengals strength and a Steelers weakness. Always possible it won't work, but the Bengals' best chance is hitting a couple of those. I think they still have to try it.

With the Bengals being great against deep throws and the Steelers pretty bad, this rain is much better for the Steelers.

And they try what I think was their second throw going over 15 yards in the air on the next drive. A.J. Green was wide open and McCarron missed a pretty easy throw. Just Green's second target in the first half.

Aaron Schatz: Speaking of Shawn Williams, oh man, the 15-yard penalty on him for hitting a defenseless receiver. Twitter blew up, and rightly so. I feel bad for the officials because the game is going so fast that they end up penalizing hits that were actually clean. But that one... Markus Wheaton actually had time to brace for the hit and put his head down, which is why it looked like Williams hit him in the head when he was leading with his shoulder the whole time. What an awful flag. Luckily, it didn't make a huge difference in the game, just the difference between a 45-yard field goal and a 30-yard field goal. That's a difference, especially in the rain, but it would have been worse if that 15-yard flag had led to a touchdown.

Heck, it almost meant absolutely nothing because Ben Roethlisberger threw an awful interception that Vincent Rey flat-out dropped. I guess he was throwing it to Antonio Brown behind Rey in the end zone, but he totally missed Rey sitting in the middle of the field.

Scott Kacsmar: If a hit looks and sounds like it really hurts, you almost expect a 15-yard flag today, and that's very unfortunate. I hated that call on Williams. I also had no idea what the Steelers were doing with a second-down run, a timeout and that third-down decision by Roethlisberger.

Both offenses could stand to open things up a bit more in the second half. I'm most surprised at the productivity of the Pittsburgh backs, but that's a testament to the work Mike Munchak has done with an improved offensive line. It just seems like the Steelers haven't really adjusted to the fact the run is working. Need to see fewer screens and more play-action passing.

Tom Gower: Halftime. Steelers lead 6-0. The Bengals had two first downs in the first half, both of them on the same possession. I don't know how they're going to move the ball, unless they get a fluke on defense, special teams, or even on offense. Sure, A.J. Green and Marvin Jones can play heroball, but that requires a baseline level of performance from A.J. McCarron against a defense that will try to pressure him and in rain that's likely to continue. And of course the lack of a pass threat means Pittsburgh will play heavy up front and shut down the Cincinnati ground game. Frustrating to watch as a neutral fan hoping for a good game, especially with Pittsburgh's unwillingness for most of the first half to try to attack downfield, plus their Michigan State-like insistence that first down is a running down.

Andrew Healy: Finally 22 yards to A.J. Green in the hole in the zone behind William Gay on the left sideline with 9:00 to go in the third quarter. McCarron may not be good enough in these conditions, but these throws are there and they have to try.

Aaron Schatz: At least Pittsburgh's insistence that first down is a running down seems to be leading to yards on most plays. Cincinnati has that one long run by Jeremy Hill but otherwise Hill's at six carries for minus-1 yard.

Tom Gower: Yes, the problem isn't the odd play like the Green completion, or even the completion earlier in the drive to Mohamed Sanu after scrambling, or even the completion to Marvin Jones, I believe, for a first down. It's the need to string enough of those together to score the nine points necessary to force overtime, as we saw when McCarron held the ball too long (a common failing of inexperienced and/or bad quarterbacks) and coughed it up for a touchdown that was not soon thereafter.

Andrew Healy: At least there's one thing I called right in the preview. The Bengals should run on first down as little as possible. Six carries for -1 yard on first down so far, halfway through the third quarter.

Martavis Bryant is the man of the match so far, with that big run and that very sick touchdown catch.

So sad to watch this seemingly happen to the Bengals again. The Nelson injury, Dre Kirkpatrick, Wallace Gilberry, even the weather. If ever a team deserved some good luck it's this one, but they just can't catch a break

Scott Kacsmar: The alien made that catch harder than it needed to be, but what an amazing display of skill on that touchdown. Given some of the plays he didn't make this year, good for Bryant after the blown-up story of Roethlisberger calling him out this week. And good on Mike Tomlin for going for two to try to make it 17-0. Didn't work, but I liked the thought. Don't assume you're done scoring, and make it as hard as possible on an offense struggling with its backup in the rain.

Aaron Schatz: It looked to me like Roethlisberger had the space to scramble into the end zone on the two-point conversion.

Tom Gower: You like the decision to go for two up 15-0 that much? I'm not sure I do. 16-0 is roughly a 75 percent chance of being a three-score lead anyway, and 15-0 v. 16-0 is a pretty significant difference. The Krasker chart, which obviously is based on old data and antedates the new XP rule, has the break-even with 21 minutes to play at 49 percent, which says it's a toss-up. Adjusting for playing McCarron in these conditions, my intuition isn't quite sure how to adjust the numbers -- any three score lead seems almost insurmountable, so the appeal of 17-0 is obvious, but I guess 50-50 may be about right.

Aaron Schatz: Just to give a further example of how the game is going too fast for the officials, the Ryan Shazier hit on Giovani Bernard near the end of the third quarter. This one, it looked to me like Shazier launched at Bernard and hit him helmet-to-helmet. And yet, this one had no flag.

Andrew Healy: Absolutely. He hit him in the chin with the crown of the helmet there. I almost don't care if that hit is legal under some interpretation. That's exactly the kind of hit that needs to disappear from football in all circumstances. This wasn't an accident. Shazier threw his helmet into Bernard. It's much less important given what can happen to a human being with that kind of hit, but the Steelers even get the ball.

Aaron Schatz: Hey, Cincinnati finally found an offense. Thanks, defensive pass interference!

Tom Gower: Bengals touchdown. Two first downs on the drive, including the short touchdown run. That's the right number of plays they could execute and be successful.

Aaron Schatz: And then Roethlisberger gets hurt. We're down to Landry Jones against McCarron, so this is a ballgame again. It's amazing to think all six NFC teams have used the same quarterbacks all year, because the AFC playoff teams have been destroyed at the position. Only Alex Smith and Tom Brady played all 16 games, and the final three AFC teams eliminated from the playoff race (Jets, Colts, Bills) also had quarterback injuries at some point.

Andrew Healy: These first-down passes to Jeremy Hill work so much better than the first-down runs. Two quick and easy first downs on a screen and then a dumpoff. With one more first down, the Bengals are close to midfield down 15-7 with 9:00 left.

And the downfield throws are working. Eifert was wide open for a 25-yard gain and dropped it. Not a great throw from McCarron, but good enough.

Aaron Schatz: Eifert made up for it with a diving catch to convert when the Steelers big-blitzed with seven defenders.

At this point, I can't think of why the Steelers would not double-team A.J. Green on every single play.

Bengals will kick a field goal to make it 15-10 rather than going for it on fourth-and-3 from the 17.

I don't agree with the Bengals kicking a field goal so that instead of a touchdown, they now need... a touchdown. Yes, it would be to win instead of a tie, and it means they won't need a two-point conversion, but still, what are the odds McCarron can get the ball down near the red zone again?

Although, hey, surprise!

It's 4th-and-3 for the Bengals from the Steelers' 17. I would try a field goal.

— NYT 4th Down Bot (@NYT4thDownBot) January 10, 2016

Tom Gower: As I mentioned on Twitter, it would have been really convenient if the Bengals had gone for two after their first score and been down either 15-6 or 15-8 so they know if they need two scores and kicking the field goal makes perfect sense, or if they should probably go for it on fourth-and-3 because they just need one score.

Scott Kacsmar: I don't mind the Bengals kicking the field goal. Have to trust with Landry Jones in the game that you would get the ball back and can drive for the winning touchdown.

Aaron Schatz: Hate the corner blitz by the Steelers on fourth-and-2* where the Bengals hit Marvin Jones to convert. Mostly because of the coverage behind it. They ended up somehow with three guys to cover two receivers on the right side, and Jones wide open in the middle of the field.

(* The broadcast said fourth-and-1, but that was pretty obviously 2.)

And then... I don't understand how the Steelers defenders were caught coming off A.J. Green. He's the best receiver on the Bengals. You need to cover him. Touchdown, and this game that looked over is now 16-15 Cincinnati.

Sterling Xie: Michael Johnson just made an unbelievable play, slapping down Fitzgerald Touissant's ankle from his knees to prevent what would've been a first down. Not sure how far Touissant could've gotten, but it appeared he had a lot of room in front of him.

Andrew Healy: What an awful, awful hit by Vontaze Burfict on Brown. My friend here was feeling terrible for Jeremy Hill, but none of this matters with Brown on the ground.

Tom Gower: A lot in this game to digest, which I'll add later (maybe in the morning), but that was a ridiculously unnecessary and idiotic hit by Vontaze Burfict, and Adam Jones then adds on his own heaping dollop of idiocy by not calming down and turning a makeable field goal into a pretty straightforward one.

Mike Tomlin then immediately kicks the field goal with :18 left. With a quarterback who may not be able to hit the end zone from that distance and no timeouts left, I get why he made the decision. But that doesn't mean I love it.

Andrew Healy: She summed it up well, "I feel bad for Hill, not for those idiots who were behaving unsportsmanly. Are games usually this depressing?"

Aaron Schatz: I have no idea what to write. That game went completely insane at the end. I guess the one thing I don't understand: why is it OK for a Steelers assistant coach, Joey Porter, to be on the field arguing with Bengals players, and why did Adam Jones get a 15-yard penalty for arguing back? The Burfict penalty I totally understand. I don't get the Jones one.

Scott Kacsmar: Had some flashbacks to the 2005 Steelers-Colts playoff game there. And I know the Steelers had all three timeouts after the Landry Jones interception, but I'm seriously pushing this kneeldown strategy from now on. Don't risk a fumble, and that's exactly what Hill did on first down. You don't expect it, but you don't even worry about it if you take a knee.

Also, that two-point conversion attempt by the Bengals was horrific and not a good look for Hue Jackson as the most latest thing on his resume. Always talk about how big those are to take a three-point lead, since we would be in overtime now if the Bengals had converted, but that little dump pass never had a chance.

Aaron Schatz: Well, Jones is pretty angry about it. (WARNING: Audio is VERY unsafe for work.)

Andrew Healy: With a little more time to process that insanity, some final thoughts:

1) The downfield throws worked so well for the Bengals in the second half, you wish they would have tried them more in the first half. Except for that one perfect throw to Eifert, the Steelers didn't require McCarron to make great throws. Receivers were either wide open (Eifert drop, Green touchdown) or could have been thrown open (DPI to set up Bengals' first touchdown).

2) Where's BenJarvus Green-Ellis when you need him?

3) I feel like Jim Nantz and Phil Simms were a bit colored by the perceptions of the franchises. They were all over the Bengals and the fans for booing Roethlisberger. Fair enough. But you've got Mike Munchak pushing players and Porter, so the criticism didn't seem particularly equal-opportunity. Both sides deserved it, although I think the Burfict hit was worst of all. Hill's fumble turned Tez from big-time hero after the pick to a goat. We might remember him in 2025 like Kimo von Oelhoffen as the reason for more Bengals pain.

Vince Verhei: I was at a party watching that fourth quarter, and I didn't want to say anything about it until Sunday morning so I had to process it. So it's Sunday morning... and I still don't know what to say. I've got to imagine, considering the decades of history, that loss was worse for Bengals fans than the Super Bowl was for Seahawks fans, or the NFC championship game was for Packers fans. The win was right there, and their own guys quite literally gave the game away. I do blame the officials for allowing things to get out of hand -- when you've got coaches grabbing players by the hair and guys running off the bench to cheap-shot opponents, you need to start ejecting guys to lay down the law. As it is things went crazy, and while that is the ref's fault, it is the Bengals' fault they lost their minds at the worst possible time.

Tom Gower: After I doubted Cincinnati's offensive productivity, they went and scored three times in a quarter-plus. One of those drives started at the Steelers' 46 and had a 42-yard pass interference penalty. The field goal drive didn't have any particularly big plays -- the longest was Eifert's 18-yard completion on third-and-9, a nice diving catch. The other touchdown drive started at the Steelers' 45, required a fourth-down conversion, and included the 25-yard touchdown to Green where William Gay failed to reroute him the way he needed to in the Cover-2 it looked like the Steelers were playing (something he'd also screwed up earlier in the game, so maybe it was coached and they were daring McCarron, not sure unless he spoke about it postgame).

Rob Weintraub: I imagine that the three or four of you who care about my well-being after last night's Bengals debacle are awaiting my two cents. Most of it went to Twitter in real time, but a recap:

Yes, I am alive, if numb. I joked pre-game that I may have to watch the game in a Sudafed-induced stupor. I stayed sober, yet the second half still played out as though I was narcotized. Still don't quite believe it wasn't a product of opiates.

Last night was simply the encapsulation of 40 years of the Bengals versus the Steelers. Everyone always blathered on about the Ravens, and yes, there were some tough encounters for a few seasons, but this rivalry has been far angrier for far longer. Pittsburgh has been cheap-shot happy at Cincy's expense literally since the '70s. It was said for years and years that the only chance the Bengals had to challenge Pittsburgh's hegemony was to fight them with the same edge-of-the-rulebook violence. I choose that word deliberately, as assault and battery is the name of the game, and certainly that's what has been perpetrated on the likes of Ken Anderson, Pat McInally, Keith Rivers, Carson Palmer, etc., etc., etc. So the Bengals have tried to answer fire with fire for the last decade -- and the apotheosis came last night, when it all blew up in their face.

What's particularly sickening is that the Steelers hardly stopped their usual BS. David DeCastro has been taking shots at Burfict late and dirty all season, aiming to get Tez to blow his loosely-battened-in-the-best-of-times cool, and last night after a play he drove him 10 yards and to the ground. Of course that somehow turned into Burfict's fault, and wasn't penalized. But the inciting incident was the Shazier hit on Gio, an unquestionable penalty augmented by Shazier dancing around while Gio was still insensate on the ground. Jeremy Hill ran out to stop them from doing that, and the storyline from Nantz and Simms was "the Bengals are losing control." That sequence was, if anything, more blatant than the end-game double flags that decided the game, but nothing was called, and the Bengals lost a scoring chance on top of it. With the score and rain and years of frustration building to a spear point by then, small wonder the Bengals and their fans lost their minds.

A couple of historical notes for context -- Joey Porter, the Steelers defensive coach who came out when Antonio Brown went down solely to agitate and should have been penalized but of course wasn't, once organized a posse and jumped Bengals lineman Levi Jones at a Vegas casino. Granted, he was on the Dolphins by then, but it all stemmed from his Steelers days, when he was an inveterate taunter. And Burfict, while clearly a semi-hinged dude, was threatened with murder by a couple of Steelers scrubs after the Le'veon Bell hit that tore Bell's ACL. Call it empty blather on social media if you like, but these guys took it seriously, believe me. No excuse for the lack of composure, but there is more than garden-variety trash-talking going on.

The game was lost as soon as Burfict performed his Usain Bolt down the tunnel after his interception, though. An entire fanbase face-palmed at that moment. If I could have tackled him at the 35, I would have.

The irony of course is that both Vontaze and Jones owe their careers to Marvin Lewis. Far from "embracing bad character guys and reaping the whirlwind," Lewis gave them both hours upon hours of counsel and guidance and love, not to mention jobs. Mostly, it has been hugely positive. And yet in the biggest of moments, this is how they repay him. He won't be fired, but I wouldn't blame Lewis for quitting in disgust.

All the tut-tutting from the media about the "disgraceful fans cheering Roethlisberger's injury," etc. -- these people have not been in the stands much, apparently. I was there for the 2005 game, and trust me when I tell you that the Steelers fans in attendance were cheering lustily when Palmer was writhing on the ground. A friend who went to the game where Andy Dalton broke his thumb told me there was similar cheering that day. ESPN and the like do their best to stoke the animosity to a fever pitch -- and then get high and mighty when it is acted upon. Spare me.

Good news dept.: At least the loss prevents what would have been a noxious week of "Dalton or McCarron?" hyperbole.

Jeremy Hill was benched earlier this season for fumbling, and seemed to have regained his confidence the last few weeks. Naturally, the issue resurfaced at the worst possible time. That is the essence of Bengal-dom. Kneeing it out and trying a field goal would have been a disaster in the making -- all we ever do is get on coaches for the conservative approach, so trying to win the game with a first down was clearly the approach. Just can't fumble, for pete's sake.

Which is why I was sensing the defeat as surely as a buzzard senses carrion, even as the comeback unfolded. That Roethlisberger would return from his third cart-off of the season (nothing suspicious there, he's just tougher than the rest, I guess...) to kill Bengal dreams was utterly predictable -- the suspense was in how it would happen. That it wasn't the garden variety deflected pass off a Bengals defensive back or 40-yard draw by a fifth-string running back against Cover-2 was the only surprise.

Just hard to believe Roethlisberger comes back time and again, yet Cincy's season essentially ended on a harmless-looking dive at Stephon Tuitt's legs by Andy Dalton. "What Might Have Been?" is after all the Bengals theme song. Dalton cut way down on his bad picks this year, but of course that's how his season ends prematurely.

I think it's time to petition the NFL to prevent further bad blood by switching the Bengals to the AFC South for a while, and move the Colts to the North. Indy is north of Cincy, after all. I know I could use a respite from this constant agita.

Enough grousing. Go Broncos.

Seattle Seahawks 10 at Minnesota Vikings 9

Aaron Schatz: Love Minnesota's decision to go for it on the first drive of the game, fourth-and-1 on their own 47. Especially love the "fake fake" where the Vikings made it look like they were just trying to pull the Seahawks offside with Teddy Bridgewater's cadence, then actually ran a quarterback sneak for the conversion.

Andrew Healy: Ditto on all of that. Even more perfect as a clear underdog.

Scott Kacsmar: Good overhead shot from NBC on the sneak. You can see the hole available that makes the sneak so obvious to run. Also not sure why it wouldn't be automatic in that situation for a linebacker to come up and fill that hole to influence the quarterback to not sneak it.

Vince Verhei: Vikings up 3-0 at the end of one and have outgained Seattle 63-23, but it doesn't feel like they're playing that well, they're just getting every third-down conversion you can. Christine Michael's 11-yard run on Seattle's second drive was longer than any play Minnesota has had so far, and the Vikings only got their field goal because of the bad snap and/or fake punt that gave them great field position.

Andrew Potter: Looked pretty clearly like a bad snap to me. Jon Ryan fielded the ball on the ground. He then went to punt it, realised it would probably get blocked, and panicked. I actually thought he had time after sidestepping the would-be blocker to get set and punt the ball like I've seen some college guys do, but I concede it's a completely different speed of game at this level.

Vince Verhei: The fact that Ryan sidestepped the first guy was what made me think there might have been a fake on. After that dodge he had plenty of time to get a kick away, and he's a 10-year vet, it's not like he's never handled a bad snap before.

Andrew Potter: True. Indeed, "fake punt" and "bad snap" aren't mutually exclusive possibilities. Seems like the former would increase the likelihood of the latter.

Vince Verhei: Seattle having trouble getting plays called, and uses their last timeout with 12-plus minutes left in the second quarter. That's no good.

Andrew Healy: Could see going the other way, but I don't mind Mike Zimmer challenging the spot on the Jermaine Kearse catch. He was probably given an extra half-yard and even a smidge more of a missed spot and they might have overturned it. Spots almost never get overturned, but I think either decision there would have been fine.

Maybe it got mentioned pregame, but this is just Russell Wilson's second game in below-freezing temperature. The other one was that 24-20 loss to the Chiefs last year (3.2% DVOA, 5.6 YPA).

Hard to understand having at least two guys running 5-yard patterns on fourth-and-13 and the Vikings sitting in a very predictable zone.

Scott Kacsmar: This team ran all go routes on a fourth-and-7 to beat the 49ers in the 2013 NFC Championship Game. How do you not go deep on fourth-and-13, or at least to the sticks? Worthless play and a waste of a drive. They're in trouble if a 47-yard field goal is deemed to be too hard today.

Vince Verhei: Agreed. If that was the fourth-down call, A) why run a similarly conservative call on third down?, and B) I'd rather just punt into the end zone.

Tom Gower: With two low snaps, I'm not sure they trust the punter, and I'd rather try to convert with a short pass that may give Minnesota the ball at the 20 or 25 and gives me a chance to get a new set of downs.

Vince Verhei: Vikings lead 3-0 at halftime, and the obvious story is the way Minnesota has neutered Seattle's passing offense so far. From what I've seen, they've used a lot of Seattle's own defensive scheme, with a single-high safety in the middle and corners taking away the outside deep balls. The one time they went to a Cover-2, Doug Baldwin got open for what should have been a long touchdown in the corner of the end zone, but Wilson underthrew the pass and the Vikings had time to get over and knock it away. The only good plays Seattle has had in the passing game were a flagrant DPI on Xavier Rhodes covering Tyler Lockett, and Doug Baldwin getting wide open on a play-action bootleg. The weather has certainly been a factor, but not as much as I would have thought -- no fumbles by either team.

Aaron Schatz: It reminds me of the Jets' upset of the Patriots in 2010. The Patriots had beaten the Jets 45-3 in Week 13 -- ironically, the same week the Seahawks beat the Vikings this year -- but the Jets came out in the playoff game and ran a completely different defensive scheme, with seven defensive backs much of the time and everyone dropping into coverage instead of the usual Rex Ryan blitzing.

Vince Verhei: Apparently the Vikings only went 2-for-7 on third downs in the first half. Sure felt like more than that.

Seahawks get yet another fourth-down failure, and this was almost as bad as that dumpoff on fourth-and-13. Fourth-and-3, and you take your best wide receiver and motion him deep into the backfield, then run him out for a swing pass? What on earth?

Aaron Schatz: Not to mention, how many timeouts are the Seahawks going to blow trying to avoid delay of game penalties? Why can't they get their guys up to the line and set in time? I know they apparently had communication problems in the first half but that doesn't explain why everyone is so slow getting ready for the play. It's a mess. They should have just taken the delay of game on their first second-half drive and punted on fourth-and-8 instead of taking the timeout and going for it on fourth-and-3. I liked going for it, but not as much as I like having three timeouts saved for the end of the game if you need them.

Andrew Healy: Love everything the Vikings are doing on defense. Awesome how they're keeping Wilson contained in the pocket from the back. And great job by Cris Collinsworth and NBC pointing that out.

The Vikings are averaging 3.3 yards per offensive play late in the third quarter and lead 6-0. Since 2000, only two teams have averaged so little and won a playoff game (Washington vs. Tampa Bay in 2005 and Baltimore vs. Tennessee in 2000).

Vince Verhei Seahawks down 9-0 at the end of the third quarter. I'm stunned by this. Last way I would have imagined this game going. I figured if Minnesota was in the game at this point, it would have been a shootout. But the defenses have been outstanding, very few missed tackles, and I'm stunned that nobody has fumbled yet.

Aaron Schatz: This defensive performance by the Vikings is outstanding and unexpected. They really were not as good as the conventional wisdom says this year. They were 14th in defensive DVOA, although that's 11th without considering the Week 1 loss to San Francisco. They were 15th in yards allowed per play and 19th in turnovers. The conventional wisdom seems to mostly come from the Vikings ranking fifth in points allowed, but that's partly because they played at a slow pace so they faced fewer drives than most defenses.

Scott Kacsmar: We have a fumble, and of course the athletic Wilson picks it up and turns it into one of the biggest plays of the game with a backyard football completion to Tyler Lockett. We have a game again at 9-7, but would you expect anything else with Seattle?

Aaron Schatz: And then another fumble, by Adrian Peterson. But that only turns into a field goal because... I mean, is the Seattle offensive line even blocking on some of these plays? The Vikings pass rush is completely dominant. I keep thinking back to the run tackle-for-loss on third-and-1 where Sharrif Floyd split two guys who were trying to double-team him and didn't even touch him, I think J.R. Sweezy and Garry Gilliam. And these last couple Seattle drives, they scored 10 points with Russell Wilson running for his life on what seemed like every pass play.

On the other hand, for the Seattle defense... get one sack on Bridgewater and it seems like the series is done. With 4:27 left in the fourth quarter, Bridgewater has thrown a grand total of ONE deep pass all day, an incomplete to Jerick McKinnon in the second quarter. Everything he throws is short.

Rob Weintraub: I thought Collinsworth was overdoing it a bit with the "black sleeve" causing Peterson's fumble. He just was stripped on a great play. Adrian may have had a better grip, but let's not overdramatize.

Meanwhile, is there a more maddening player to root against then Russell Wilson and his eel-like slipperiness? Nothing so demoralizing as thinking you have the quarterback trapped for a loss, and having him elude disaster, time and again. Wilson is unquestionably a Hall-of-Famer in that part of the game.

Vince Verhei: After the Seahawks kicked a field goal to go up 10-9, they got a sack to put Minnesota in third-and-16. They rushed two on the play, and really almost one with a spy, and Minnesota still got one-on-one coverage downfield. Fortunately for Seattle, Jeremy Lane was still able to knock the ball away from Stefon Diggs to force an incompletion and a punt.

Scott Kacsmar: I'm waiting to rewind it, but thought the Vikings were offsides on Seattle's third-and-short incomplete pass that was a dropped interception. Then on the other side, timely blitz took down Bridgewater and thwarted that drive. Now we'll see if Wilson can end this one without giving the ball back. Use those legs here.

Andrew Healy: Collinsworth might have gotten a little too excited about an Eric Kendricks breakup in the first half (very nice play, but maybe not the best play by a linebacker this year). But that play that got the Seahawks the ball back got no love and that might have been even better. Didn't get a replay, though.

Rob Weintraub: Any special teams maven knows the laces affect direction only when faced left or right from the kicker. If you kick the laces it affects length, not accuracy.

Aaron Schatz: The end of that game... this year has had so many ridiculous endings. That was a ridiculous ending.

I feel like we need to share the tweets of former Patriots punter Zoltan Mesko for anyone who did not see them.

Just so you guys are aware, putting the laces straight back to the kicker does not affect direction as much as distance. #MINvsSEA

— Zoltan Mesko (@ZoltanMesko) January 10, 2016

It's all about compression and laces toward the kicker is even compression. Laces to either sideline is what affects direction. #MINvsSEA

— Zoltan Mesko (@ZoltanMesko) January 10, 2016

Internally, the problem of the laces is blamed on the snapper. Temp does affect grip and rotation, so some adjustments should've been made.

— Zoltan Mesko (@ZoltanMesko) January 10, 2016

Rob Weintraub: Aha! Vindication via a man named Zoltan! My time on earth has not been wasted!

Man, Zim couldn't decontaminate that Bengals postseason stench in time. Gutted for him -- but more for Cincinnati.

Andrew Healy: The Vikings did everything right schematically and strategically, but just like you would have been nervous if it had been the Bengals attempting that kick, somehow it felt queasy with the Vikings, too. If we had a stat for snakebittenness since the merger, the Vikings are probably No. 1 overall, but in weighted snakebittenness, it's probably the Bengals.

Smaller note: Not sure there's been a dumber player of the game co-winner than Kam Chancellor. He gave up the DPI and the following reception that should have lost it.

Scott Kacsmar: Well, Blair Walsh joins some names like Scott Norwood, Lin Elliott, Mike Vanderjagt, and Billy Cundiff when it comes to being remembered for all the wrong reasons in a playoff game. I thought he would have no problem with a 27-yard field goal. He hit his longer ones fine today, but this was the most important one, and kickers are one of the positions where the mental game might even be bigger than what little they have to do physically.

Tom Gower: The third-down run was designed to go to the right. Adrian Peterson cut it back to the left, so the ball was on the left hash instead of the right hash. I did wonder before the snap if Vikings were going to run an actual play, or just have Teddy Bridgewater dive to the perfect position for Walsh. Like Mike Zimmer/Norv Turner, I thought "nah, they're in easy field goal range enough that it doesn't matter, try to get the first down to avoid the kick altogether." And, well, you pays your money and you takes your chances.

Vince Verhei: I am annoyed at the notion that Blair Walsh cost his team the game. Anyone who says this didn't watch the game, the long kicks he made, and his (and his coverage unit's) excellent performance on kickoffs -- three touchbacks, one returned to the 17. They get shut out if not for Blair Walsh. If he makes that kick, he's the MVP of the game. So he misses one, and that makes him the only reason the team lost?

Overall, I thought that was clearly the best game of the weekend (pending the Green Bay-Washington game). There is a difference between bad offense and good defense. I thought most of what we saw from Houston, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati was the former, but Seattle and Minnesota was definitely the latter.

Tom Gower: Concur completely with Vince's point re: Walsh. I was thinking before the kick if he made it he's the MVP of the game. Kickoffs were great as well, important in the weather and with such a dangerous return man back there. What's the expectation, in those conditions, for the four kicks he attempted? 3.0? 3.5? I know, they're all inside 50, no kicker should ever miss a kick like that. But it happens sometimes, and the long kicks are difficult. Going back to the Tennessee-New England playoff game in 2003 (another one of those really cold games -- kickoff temp 4, wind chill -10), Adam Vinatieri hit a game-winner from 46, but he had earlier in the game missed very, very badly from 46. Walsh hit from 47, a distance Seattle didn't even try from earlier (yes, other direction, etc., etc., etc.). Unfortunate time for that kind of mistake, but some perspective.

The question we'll never know the answer to is, what that game would have looked like in more normal conditions. Would Seattle's offense have looked more like it did in December? Would Minnesota have tried to throw downfield some? Or would both teams have let it play out much like it did, given the offensive line vs. defensive line matchups weren't favorable? We'll probably get some answers about Seattle next week, but not for the Vikings.

Rob Weintraub: I never liked the term "snakebit" to mean ill luck. That demeans the rattler or puff adder who did a good job getting his prey.

I do like "weighted snakebittedness" however.

Vince Verhei: Two more thoughts on individual Seattle defenders: Michael Bennett was awesome today, probably the best player on either team. Might have had more snaps in Minnesota's backfield than Adrian Peterson did. And Kam Chancellor -- and this is really more a comment on media coverage and public perception than Chancellor himself -- but it's funny how much his image changes based on the results of that kick. Walsh missed, so the story is that Chancellor is a big part of the win because he forced Peterson's fumble. If Walsh had made the kick, the story would have been that Chancellor let Minnesota move down the field with blown coverage on the DPI (which I thought could just have easily been OPI, but whatever, you're not allowed to play defense in the NFL anymore) and the long completion. Just funny to me that he goes from goat to hero based on what happened on the kick.

Green Bay Packers 35 at Washington Redskins 18

Aaron Schatz: So, the Packers are starting their fourth left tackle in four games, with J.C. Tretter, and it turns out that it isn't great moving a center out to the tackle position. Preston Smith beats him easily to sack Aaron Rodgers for a safety in the first five minutes of the game.

Wow, Jordan Reed really playing well in the first half. Packers were No. 4 in DVOA against tight ends but Micah Hyde seems unable to cover him. He has gotten open a number of times and also had the great one-handed catch that not only gained yards but prevented what looked to be a likely interception for Casey Hayward, who was right behind him.

Cian Fahey: Dom Capers is normally derided in the playoffs but he should be celebrated so far. He has called a great game. Green Bay is waiting for bootleg play-action and jumping on quick outs from the slot. Staple plays for Washington.

Aaron Schatz: Quinton Dunbar is a really good story for Washington, a UDFA rookie wide receiver from Florida who was moved to cornerback in training camp. I will admit to not watching much Washington this year but he has actually looked pretty good tonight. Of course, a guy playing his first year at corner is going to make some zone mistakes. After the wide-open touchdown by Davante Adams to make it 17-11, Aikman suggested on the telecast that Dunbar made a mistake by coming up to play a receiver in front of him and leaving the space behind him open. On replay, I'm not so sure... it might have been Cover-2, in which case Dunbar is supposed to move up and the safety should be in the end zone -- and a corner route like Adams ran is likely to be open anyway, though at least you would think the safety would have been closer to it.

Vince Verhei: Love that Green Bay keeps catching Washington's defense trying to substitute and getting free plays. The touchdown where, when the ball was snapped, Rodgers and several of his linemen were all looking backwards over their shoulders, and then several Washington defenders were trying to call timeout rather than rush the passer, was a thing of beauty. Washington needs to just start playing 15 men on the field if they're going to substitute that late. Sure, it's a penalty, but that's better than giving up a touchdown.

Tom Gower: Halftime. Packers lead 17-11. Despite the 11 points, I mostly like what Green Bay has done defensively. Washington is a bad running offense, so no surprise that outside of the 25-yarder by Chris Thompson they've barely gotten anything going there. Jordan Reed has gotten some yards, which was inevitable. The seam throw down the field for the touchdown to him was a good throw by Kirk Cousins, but on the other hand he coughed the ball up twice on sacks, Jordan Reed saved him on a pick-six, and he has done OK on some shallow crosses. The big story, and the big variable since about the bye week, has been Green Bay's offense and whether it would ever start working again. Early signs were bad, Rodgers was 1-of-8 and got safetied in the first quarter, but the illegal substitution penalties seemed to get him out of his torpor and into an effective tempo, plus Adams actually caught a couple balls.

Or maybe I'm just over-reading things and this is our third straight game massively affected by weather -- rain in Cincinnati, cold in Minnesota, and now wind in The Place Formerly Known As Raljon, as Washington with the wind starts the third quarter by quickly crossing midfield.

Aaron Schatz: Love the call to go with Kirk Cousins' quarterback draw at the goal line, especially how Washington drew away the attention of the Green Bay defense by lining up a diamond formation on one side, with Jordan Reed on the other side -- a red zone threat who also happens to be Washington's best player this evening.

Andrew Healy: That fourth-and-1 Eddie Lacy run on the Washington 45-yard line made me think for a second of John Riggins on fourth-and-1 against the Dolphins in Super Bowl 17. It was a different kind of play with both teams in goal-line personnel then, but the run went off the left side with a power back and he looked like he might have broken it.

The Packers' passing game problems are not solved with that breakout in the second quarter. We're still seeing hopeless deep throws with no breathing room. One to James Jones and one to Randall Cobb in the third quarter. Almost couldn't believe that Davante Adams made that catch in the second quarter. Had to be his best play of the entire season. Four catches on four targets for him. While he looks better, his much larger sample of below-replacement-level play suggests his loss is not a big deal if he can't return today.

But as the third quarter ends, one big improvement for the Packers lately is the pass protection. Perfect pocket for Rodgers to step up into on the in to Cobb that ends the third quarter. Looked like maybe they kept seven in to block there. He doesn't need much separation with that kind of protection. And he's smiling and relaxed like it's a State Farm commercial.

Tom Gower: How much of Rodgers' shakiness early was really the pass protection, and how much was him feeling the pressure because of the Packers' inability to execute with rhythm and timing in the pass game the last 6 to 10 weeks of the season? Because it looked an awful lot like the latter. Then he went to the sidelines, realized the pressure wasn't really getting that close to him, and kind of moved his mental clock a little. Since then, we haven't seen quite the same errant passes, and the offense has scored on four consecutive possessions, looking soon to be five as James Starks takes the latest carry down inside the 5.

Vince Verhei: For those keeping track, Green Bay finished their go-ahead drive with five straight carries for 54 total yards, then went ahead 32-18 on a drive that ended with five straight carries for 46 yards. They're just a locomotive right now.

Andrew Healy: Yeah, kind of unbelievable how the running game is rolling. The receiver group isn't fixed and probably won't be, but with the line playing this well opening holes and making Rodgers comfortable, that's enough. At least against this defense.

Aaron Schatz: This just in: opponent strength matters. The Washington defense is not good.

Scott Kacsmar: Green Bay was good against tight ends, bad against No. 1 wide receivers, which is basically what Jordan Reed is in this offense. He's playing very well today. Should have had a bigger gain after rolling over Randall's body, but officials whistled him down. Washington probably in four-down territory rest of the way, because they can't have faith in the defense to get stops right now.

Aaron Schatz: From what I understand from Packers fans on Twitter, part of the issue is that the Packers usually had Quinten Rollins covering tight ends for much of the year. With Sam Shields out, Rollins has to cover outside receivers and Micah Hyde is on Reed. Although Hyde has been good in the past in that safety/cornerback hybrid role the Packers use. It doesn't seem like he should be much of a downgrade.

Andrew Healy: By the way, last five rushes to the left side for the Packers as of the drive that made it 32-18: gains of 22, 4, 30, 11, and 9 yards. This isn't going to come close to happening against any of the other three NFC opponents, but still have to say that the left side of the line is doing better than we ever could have guessed.

Scott Kacsmar: Washington definitely lacked a reliable defense, but nothing from Green Bay over the last 13 games suggested a 35-point day on the road. Redskins cost themselves five easy points early in the game with DeSean Jackson not stretching for the touchdown and a missed extra point. Biggest difference was really in the pass protection. Cousins was pressured a lot more than Rodgers today.

Andrew Healy: And that fourth-down stop of Cousins pretty much ends the game with about five minutes to go.

I could have said something a bit more clearly earlier: The question going into next week is how much you want to believe this breakout carries over. You could make a positive case here with the protection improvements and those consecutive scoring drives starting in the second quarter. But they still averaged 5.8 yards per pass for the game. I've got them at two completions in eight deep pass attempts for 54 yards. And that's against the No. 24 defense against deep passes. Their problems were hidden today because the No. 22 rushing defense couldn't stop them, but despite the hopeful signs on the line, this formula probably isn't sustainable when they face the No. 2 rushing defense next week.

Scott Kacsmar: It's too late to matter, but another fumble in a run-out-the-clock situation. Never seen as many as I have this year. Up 17, just take three knees.

Andrew Healy: One last thing: Liked the creativity McCarthy showed in getting the ball to Cobb on running plays. First time in his career getting at least five carries. Used a bunch of different sets on those running plays, too, I think.