Audibles at the Line

Unfiltered in-game observations by Football Outsiders staff

Audibles at the Line: Week 14

compiled by Andrew Potter

Each Sunday, the FO staff sends around emails about the games that each of us are watching. We share information about the games that the rest of the group might not be watching, ask questions, and keep everyone else informed about which games they might want to tune into (if they can).

On Monday, we compile a digest of those emails and produce this feature. By its nature, it can be disjointed and dissimilar to the other articles on the site.

While these emails are generally written with Audibles in mind, they do not represent a standard review of all the games each week. That means we aren't going to cover every game, or every important play. We watch the games that we, as fans, are interested in watching, so your favorite team's game might not be covered to your fullest desires or even at all. (If you are a Steelers or Patriots fan, you are probably in luck; if you are a Bills fan, not so much.) We have no intention of adding new authors solely to cover every game on a given Sunday, nor will we watch a different game from the ones that we're personally interested in watching just to ensure that Audibles covers every game.

Atlanta Falcons 20 at Green Bay Packers 34

Scott Kacsmar: Ever see a team lose both challenges in the game's first 90 seconds? Joe Philbin just did that in his interim debut in Green Bay on a pair of Julio Jones catches. The first one looked very iffy to me. I know they changed the catch rule for 2018, but not sure it has been a smashing success so far. He looked like he lost the ball very quickly out of bounds. Both catches held up and Jones finished the drive with a slow-developing drag route for a touchdown.

Dave Bernreuther: The McCarthy-less Packers have some fight in them! Aaron Rodgers gets hit in the back as he slid on a run, and next thing you know, we've got a melee and even a flying punch. Fun.

Some things never change, though. They're still losing challenges, and Rodgers just took another third-down sack. Still, they're playing with fire, and a 48-yarder from Mason Crosby sends them to the half up 20-7.

New England Patriots 33 at Miami Dolphins 34

Dave Bernreuther: A friend and I have had a hunch all week that the Patriots are tired of hearing about this Miami schneid, and after watching how useless Kiko Alonso was last week, I had a hunch that the Pats would find a way to use that area of the field and put together another one of their statement wins. My company full of DFS touts didn't necessarily agree with me, so I'm just going to write this here to start off in case I'm right.

One drive in, I look smart, inasmuch as saying "I think the Patriots offense will score points" can be considered smart. True to recent form, they've used the ground game, with seven carries on that drive for Sony Michel ... and then the fantasy-leeching score by James Develin. Of course.

The Dolphins needed only two plays to cross midfield coming back the other way, though, before Frank Gore broke a long run inside the 5, so it's still entirely possible that nothing about this trip will be easy.

Following a turnover, Julian Edelman runs the same route he scored on in the Seahawks Super Bowl a few years back, but in what seemed like slow motion, which I suspect is about 10 percent ACL/age and 90 percent the turf quality (which has also apparently claimed a cameraman). 13-7 Pats after a perfectly placed throw by Tom Brady, as Edelman was not nearly as open as he was before.

Scratch that, the Pats surrender ANOTHER long run, this one to ex-Patriot Brandon Bolden, and this one into the end zone. Who knew that I'd find myself enjoying a Miami game here in Miami?

Zach Binney: Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Brandon Bolden revenge game in Miami. Bolden has two of Miami's three touchdowns here midway through the second quarter. His stat line so far: two carries, 60 yards, two touchdowns.

Dave Bernreuther: Tom Brady looked amazing on that drive. Dan Fouts correctly hushed over the laser throw to Cordarrelle Patterson for the score, but the throw on third down before that was brilliant as well. Brady is nearly perfect today so far and I am feeling smart about that one. (Heh.)

Ryan Tannehill, though, looks good coming back the other way, as he had time to do a dance in the pocket before a nicely placed deep ball to Kenny Stills. The only reaction at my table as he stepped into it was "uh oh." It is never a good thing when an entire room says "uh oh" at the same time.

Bryan Knowles: Uncharacteristic brain fart by Tom Brady to end the first half. After New England's second punt block of the day, they set up in the red zone with 30 seconds left and no timeouts. Easy field goal at least, right? Especially with Gronk taking the ball to the two? Instead, Brady gets sacked by Robert Quinn with 9 seconds left, and the Patriots are unable to spike the ball, so the half just ends. 27-21 Patriots at the half in what has been an exciting game to watch.

It's a must-win game for Miami if they want to stay relevant in this one, and they've come out firing on all cylinders; it's been an impressive overall performance. Ryan Tannehill had to head to the locker room just before the half, though; if Brock Osweiler is under center after the half, I'm not so sure the Dolphins will be able to hang in in this one.

Aaron Schatz: Note that Tannehill did return after halftime, limping a little but he was able to hit Brice Butler for a post-route touchdown against Stephon Gilmore (!!!) after a couple of big tackle-breaking runs by Frank Gore.

Dave Bernreuther: Holy shit.

Vince Verhei: [indecipherable screaming]

Bryan Knowles: Mother of god. Lateral woo-woo.

Tom Gower:

Dave Bernreuther: But seriously ... Wow. How on earth...

Gronk tripped as the last line of defense. And it is pandemonium here at Sandbar in Miami.

Zach Binney: Where were you for the Miracle in Miami?

I was at the Dolphins bar in Atlanta. On the floor in stunned silence. I didn't say a word. A 3-legged dog named Lady licked my face to make sure I was still alive. Then I hugged my dad.

Aaron Schatz: One final thought on the incredible ending. If Brady remembers the situation at the end of the first half and throws the ball away, and Stephen Gostkowski comes in to get the short field goal, Miami still would have required a two-point conversion after the big hook-and-ladder touchdown just to send the game to overtime.

New Orleans Saints 28 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

Dave Bernreuther: I'll just stick with tradition here and mention my weekly uniform gripe: the Buccaneers look stupid in all-orange. Or whatever you even call that color...

Bryan Knowles: Next year is the NFL's 100th season, and they should celebrate by making everyone bust out their throwbacks for significant portions of the season. I'll take 10 games of the creamsicles and four of the pewter reboot over whatever the hell the Buccaneers are wearing this week, please.

Derrik Klassen: It has been a slow day for the Saints offense. The backs have a combined -4 yards on six carries, and one of the TFLs nearly resulted in a safety. Drew Brees and the passing offense have been fine, but they aren't doing a good job of getting the ball to anyone but Michael Thomas, and Brees does not seem all that willing to even try throwing elsewhere. Would like to see them force a few more touches to Alvin Kamara and make the Bucs defense to deal with him.

Watching Tampa Bay's passing offense has been disorienting. Jameis Winston started with a deep connection to Mike Evans, followed by a laser to Adam Humphries over the middle shortly thereafter, but it has been all over the place since then. Overthrown deep shots, weird drops, and a slew of defensive penalties have led to a terribly volatile passing offense that is somehow staying on the field despite not actually producing a whole lot. I want to say it will all settle down, but with Winston at quarterback, who knows?

Vince Verhei: Last week, the Saints scored 10 points in a loss to Dallas, and we chalked it up to the weirdness of a Thursday road game, combined with the Dallas defense playing out of its mind. So what's the story with New Orleans scoring three points in the first half against Tampa Bay today? They can't run at all (nine carries for a total of 3 yards), they can't get any big plays (no completion longer than 20 yards), and Drew Brees has thrown what I assume is his ugliest interception of the year (I mean, there's only four of them) on a busted screen pass. Tampa Bay's pass defense has improved since firing Mike Smith, but their run defense has declined. But nothing is really working for the Saints today.

As earlier noted, Jameis Winston can look really goofy sometimes -- witness his second-to-last pass of the half, when almost scrambled, then jumped backward and hit Adam Humphries for a first down. You don't often see fadeaway jumpers in the NFL, but there it was. Their passing game is barely any better than New Orleans' today, but they're getting enough production on the ground to get them into the red zone, where Cameron Brate has a pair of goal-line scores.

As you'd expect, Saints get back in the game early in the second half. Taysom Hill blocks a punt -- he lines up wide to the punter's left, stunts to the inside, and comes in untouched. Saints need only five plays to score from there, with Zach Line catching a 1-yard touchdown, then Alvin Kamara scoring on a two-point conversion, and Tampa Bay's lead is cut to 14-11.

Bucs special teams today: 0-for-2 on field goals, one blocked punt allowed, and a bad punt that set the Saints up near midfield. New Orleans gets a first-and-goal at the 4, and it takes them four plays to score from there, but on fourth down Brees gets the reach-across-the-goal-line sneak for the touchdown. Saints now up 18-14, but still 11 minutes and change to go.

Floodgates are open. Saints force a three-and-out and take over near midfield again, and then Mark Ingram drags defenders into the end zone for a 17-yard touchdown. Saints have scored 22 points in the last 13 minutes of game time and now lead 25-14.

Carolina Panthers 20 at Cleveland Browns 26

Bryan Knowles: This is a must-win game for the Panthers, who have been in a tailspin over the past month. Their offense seems to have gotten the message, as they marched right down and scored easily on their opening drive. The Carolina offense continues to be the Christian McCaffrey show, as he touched the ball seven times on the 11-play scoring drive; the Browns seem to have trouble matching up with him. The defense, however, remains suspect, as it takes the Browns just three plays to respond. A 66-yard pass from Baker Mayfield to Breshad Perriman sets up a Jarvis Landry rushing touchdown to tie the game. Looks like this one is going to be a bit of an offensive showcase.

Mayfield has yet to throw an incomplete pass through three drives, as he continues to slice and dice Carolina's defense. He just hooked up on his second big shot of the day, finding a triple-covered Jarvis Landry 50 yards downfield in the end zone. The pass was thrown perfectly and Landry comes down with his second touchdown of the day. Mayfield trusts his arm, woah boy -- that really isn't the kind of throw you want your quarterback to be making, because it needed to be perfect. It was one of those "no no no no no YES!" plays that you see from Favresque players.

Dave Bernreuther: To echo Bryan, Baker Mayfield looks fantastic. I didn't see it live, but the highlight montage that ended in the second Landry score also included a gorgeous deep ball to Breshad Perriman down the left sideline, and he's really just making excellent throws, which is fun to watch on the screen next to the Darnold-Allen crapfest. Which just saw a badly dropped interception where Allen hit a defender right in the gut. (But it was thrown really hard, guys!)

Bryan Knowles Jet sweeps seem like a better way to use Jarvis Landry than wide receiver screens. Landry scored on a jet sweep earlier today, and just had a 51-yard run to set Cleveland up in the red zone again -- it would have been a score if he hadn't been caught from behind by Luke Kuechly (!). Nick Chubb gets the call for the touchdown on the next play, as Cleveland takes a 23-20 lead. If Carolina loses this one, we can stick a fork in 'em.

Uh, I missed the extra point after the Browns touchdown, so something really, really weird happened there. The Browns kicked the extra point to take a 24-20 lead, but Carolina jumped offsides. The referees announced that ... the Browns accepted the penalty, taking the point off the board. They line up 5 yards closer ... and miss the extra point. So, according to the refs, they accepted the penalty only so they could re-try a kick they had already made.

There HAS to be something else there, and I look forward to post-game explanations, because ... wha?

Andrew Potter: That might be the most Browns thing that ever happened in the entire history of the multiverse.

Dave Bernreuther: Cam Newton just airmailed one over Devin Funchess, and the Damarious Randall pick just about seals the Panthers' fate. What a collapse. They were playing so well a month ago.

Indianapolis Colts 24 at Houston Texans 21

Dave Bernreuther: Four drives, four punts through just the first half of the first quarter in the defensive struggle we all expected when placing our daily wagers (Narrator: he did not expect this). The loss of Jack Doyle was almost certainly felt on a midfield third-and-2 for the Colts, as a scrambling Andrew Luck calmly threw to an open Erik Swoope, who didn't quite have the control of his body necessary to stay in bounds. It took a challenge flag to get the call right, and the Colts -- somewhat surprisingly -- chose to punt.

Scott Kacsmar: Deshaun Watson slid early on a third-and-12 scramble, which the Colts challenged and got overturned. That's a situation where you need to dive headfirst, but Michael David Smith linked to a story from August that the NFL is supposedly treating headfirst dives and slides the same as a player giving himself up this year. I can't say I've ever seen that mentioned or applied in any game I've watched this year. Also, how would it work when a quarterback dives from the 1 into the end zone? You couldn't say the play should be ruled dead at the 1 when he starts his dive, so I find it unlikely this is a rule that's actually being put into use this year. If Watson went headfirst there, I bet there wouldn't have even been a challenge. The Texans converted anyway on fourth down after a sweet one-handed catch by their tight end Jordan Thomas.

Dave Bernreuther: Not the greatest sequence for the referees in Houston. Following the challenged catch and overturn, we saw a free 15 yards for Houston on a pretty minor helmet contact that could be argued was as much a coincidence of the receiver's head moving sideways as it was targeting, and then on third-and-12, Watson took off running, gave himself up at the 19, and had a knee down at the 18, and the officials gave him a first down beyond the marker at the 17. Reich wisely challenged, but that should not have been necessary at all.

And then we have a turnover overturned on another personal foul call, this on Malik Hooker. Hard to argue that one, as it was all helmet to all helmet, unless the argument is "well what was he supposed to do on a low throw?" Which would probably have a point, but the rules are the rules.

Bryan Knowles: For the first time in six quarters, the Colts have managed to find the end zone. Andrew Luck found T.Y. Hilton for a 60-yard bomb downfield, setting up an easy Marlon Mack touchdown to the tie the game at seven. Hilton averages 96 yards a game against the Texans, so it didn't matter that he was questionable with a shoulder injury -- he was always going to play, and play well in this one. It's an incredible level of player-over-team dominance.

Dave Bernreuther: My gambling interests may have preferred that T.Y. got the touchdown as well, but at least it's nice to see the Colts find the painted area of the field.

Tom Gower: Colts up 17-7 at the half. After the moribund start with four three-and-outs (featuring a couple of dropped passes by tight ends), the Colts offense and specifically Andrew Luck moved the ball almost at will in the second quarter. The only blemishes were an interception that went off receiver Zach Pascal's hands and running out of time at the end of the first half and having to kick a field goal. Unless, of course, you count that they can't run the ball, and Luck has been under a fair amount of pressure when he hasn't been able to get the ball out quickly. But he's hard to sack and has an idea of how to get the ball out and options to get the ball out, so no sacks. Houston can't run the ball or protect either, and unlike Luck, Watson takes sacks (three in the first half). He found a little bit going with his tight end on their one scoring drive, but hasn't been real precise with his throws and I feel like the Texans offense may be missing out on that deep-strike ability they got from Will Fuller and Indy got on the big play to Hilton.

Bryan Knowles: Houston's running game has been shut down all day -- or, at least, their running game not involving Deshaun Watson -- but Lamar Miller just found the end zone to cut the Colts lead to 17-14. They almost scored the play previously, and in fact threw a challenge flag on Griffin's catch, pushed out at the pylon. Houston's first drive out of the locker room has been their best of the day so far; 75 yards in 16 plays with Watson looking confident and competent. Apparently, both teams thought this game started about an hour after it actually began, but since the boring start, this game has become really interesting.

Dave Bernreuther: It's any part of the ball just touching the line for it to break the plane, right? Same as forward progress ... so what in the hell did the refs see that made them mark Ryan Griffin shy of the touchdown? Further, how did the end zone shot from behind Malik Hooker not overturn it? What is it with this game and challenges?

Houston again wisely goes for it, and a direct snap to Lamar Miller makes this one a game again.

The Texans finally got to Andrew Luck. On first down, the Colts bring everyone in tight and run play-action. Or attempt to. Nobody on Houston was fooled, and nobody on Indianapolis blocked, and Luck very nearly got eaten.

No matter, though. Next play, he made an Oh Wow throw, stepping up at a full run before taking something off it to drop one in to Hilton to convert second-and-18, and then a great double-move by Zach Pascal gets him open for a score to put the Colts back up ten. Excellent response from this offense since they earlier threatened to go scoreless through six full quarters.

Tom Gower: I haven't been as bothered by any of the officiating decisions today as everybody else seems to be; from the down-the-line shot CBS showed us before they went to commercial, I didn't see enough to overturn the call on the field of no touchdown on that Griffin catch, and no other angle convinced me I was wrong. But to think that's the best Texans drive ... they took 16 plays to go 75 yards and had to convert three third downs and one fourth down. Their first touchdown drive I remember as being much more fluid, and I think that's illustrative of the kind of work and repeated execution they need now that they're lacking the pure explosive element. Granted, there were some good plays, most notably Watson's pass to DeAndre Hopkins to convert third-and-10 to get in the red zone, but it's easier when you get chunk plays and make it look easy like Luck did to restore the 10-point lead the next possession.

Bryan Knowles: Their other big drive was aided by multiple Indianapolis personal fouls, which is why I called this most recent one their best; they moved the ball down the field themselves. I'll grant you that the first scoring drive had more big plays from Houston's offense, however, so YMMV.

Tom Gower: I should note that DeAndre Carter was supposed to be the guy who provided the explosive element, but he went out early in the game and now Houston has been playing Joe Webb at receiver with Keke Coutee inactive.

Dave Bernreuther: I don't know who this Grover defensive lineman is for the Colts, but he just took his second hands to the face penalty to extend a drive. Watson missed Miller behind the line of scrimmage BADLY on third down, though, leading to a punt. They pinned the Colts deep, but the Texans defensive linemen can commit penalties too -- in this case a hold -- to give the Colts some breathing room. One more touch pass to Hilton later, the Colts are at midfield and Hilton is over 150 yards against Houston again.

The Colts have been sending a lot more blitzes than usual, and the corner ones are working. This is not a team known for its pass rush, but they have been overwhelming the Texans' line.

Watson has dropped back 51 times already today (Hm, so said the graphic -- that can't be right though. By the box score he has 33 attempts, five sacks, and five runs.) for only 163 net yards, and Nuk Hopkins only has three catches. This is not exactly the pass defense against real teams that Colts fans are used to seeing.

Tom Gower: The Colts' strategy in the fourth quarter was to run the ball to burn clock, as the deliberate and non-explosive Houston offense struggled to execute another drive. They stalled out near midfield twice after running on first and second downs. The second time, Houston actually did something with it, as Watson finally beat the blitz and found Ryan Griffin for a big play. Backs against the wall, Frank Reich put the hands in the ball of his best player, passing early and often, and a third-and-1 encroachment penalty on Jadeveon Clowney gave them the final first down they needed to end the game.

Baltimore Ravens 24 at Kansas City Chiefs 27 (OT)

Aaron Schatz: The Ravens are bringing a lot of blitzes, pass rush from all angles, but Patrick Mahomes is doing a good job of getting away from it. He's forced outside of the pocket a lot but he's throwing it away or finding Travis Kelce.

The Ravens, meanwhile ... their first drive showed what happens when this run-heavy offense doesn't work. Chiefs pass rush had Lamar Jackson totally dead to rights on a third-and-8. Second drive showed what happens when it does work. Huge holes up the middle on read-option pistol plays. A mix of Jackson keeping and handing off. Nice blocks by James Hurst and Nick Boyle. Eight plays, all runs, 75-yard touchdown drive. Now 7-7.

One of the most impressive things about Pat Mahomes is his ability to zip accurate sidearm throws under pressure. He did it twice on the final Kansas City drive of the first half. You have to credit Baltimore for how much pressure they can bring but for the most part it's not knocking Mahomes off his game. On the other side, Jackson has had a couple of good throws but it's still mostly a ground offense. Jackson had Michael Crabtree open on one third-and-8 but Crabtree slipped on the grass. 17-10 KC at halftime.

Vince Verhei: Can only confirm what Aaron said about how run-reliant Baltimore is right now. Their two scoring drives covered 124 combined yards in 18 plays, with only two completions -- both on third-down conversions. It's effective enough, especially against a terrible run defense like Kansas City's. But when they got the ball back with less than three minutes to go, they ran three times, threw an incomplete on third down (Michael Crabtree fell down on the route), and punted. That left the Chiefs with 1:36 left, which was all they needed for a field goal and a 17-10 halftime lead. It could be worse -- they missed a field goal earlier. It's still just a one-score game, but Baltimore's margin for error here is razor-thin -- they can't afford to fall down by multiple scores in the second half.

Patrick Mahomes is amazing. He makes throws that look like video game glitches -- his feet, body, and head will all be pointed straight downfield, but instead the ball will head to the sidelines, knifing through defenders for a completion. Just ridiculous. Unfortunately for Kansas City, Spencer Ware (77 yards from scrimmage in the first half) went down late in the second quarter and immediately grabbed for his collarbone. Not a good sign.

Aaron Schatz: The pressure finally got to Mahomes on the first drive of the second-half. Third-and-3, he threw it up for grabs under pressure and it ended up going right to Chuck Clark from the Ravens.

The Chiefs are one of the worst defenses in the league against tight ends. Ravens just went for it on fourth-and-2 from the 10 and hit a touchdown pass to a wide-open Maxx Williams, who was right at the sticks but easily made up the yards to score. 17-17.

Vince Verhei: Stats for that drive: 14 plays, 73 yards, three completions, including a third-down conversion and the fourth-down conversion.

Aaron Schatz: In the first half Mahomes was able to step up in the pocket against pass pressure and make plays. And the second half there's even more pressure and he doesn't even have time to do that. I think the Ravens just beat three different Chiefs linemen on a third-and-5 and Mahomes has nowhere to go. Ravens then got a huge punt return that sets them up on the Kansas City 14, tied 17-17.

Vince Verhei: Ravens seem to have really figured out Kansas City's protection schemes. Last three Kansas City drives have gained a total of 34 yards, with two punts and an interception. A Cyrus Jones 55-yard punt return sets them up in the red zone, and then on third down they run double crossers, and Jackson hits John Brown for the go-ahead touchdown. Ravens now lead 24-17 with 4:04 to go.

Third-and-3, inside of two-minute warning, MVP favorite at quarterback ... and you throw behind the line of scrimmage? Spencer Ware loses a yard, and KC calls timeout to discuss fourth-and-4.

(It is very good news that Ware is back, of course.)

Aaron Schatz: It was actually a Baltimore timeout. Kansas City came out of the timeout with a false start so now it's fourth-and-9.

Bryan Knowles: Patrick Mahomes is not human. Not HUMAN. Being chased out of the pocket, throwing back against the grain of the field, hitting a 30-yard pass to Tyreek Hill? Astounding.

Vince Verhei: Y'all gotta see Mahomes' scrambling, throwback pass to Tyreek Hill for a big play and a fourth-and-9 conversion as soon as possible. One of the best plays all year.

Tom Gower: Video:

Vince Verhei: Fourth-and-3 from the 5, unblocked rusher comes right into Mahomes' face, but he calmly hits Damien Williams out of the backfield with a soft lob for the tying score. 53 seconds to go, and the Ravens still have two timeouts and can win with a field goal. But that drive was just ridiculous.

Aaron Schatz: That's was Za'Darius Smith for the Ravens on the 30-yard play, and Eric Fisher who blew the block on the touchdown. Fisher has had a bad game. A big reason Mahomes has been under the gun so much.

Bryan Knowles: The only criticism I have of that Chiefs drive was calling the timeout with time left on the play clock. There could have been 30 seconds rather than 50 seconds on the clock for a potential Baltimore game-winning drive.

Did I say the Chiefs' time-out was terrible? I mean it was genius -- they just got a strip-sack of Lamar Jackson, and now THEY could kick the game-winning field goal with 30 seconds left on the clock. I've been out-12-dimensional chessed by Andy Reid!

Vince Verhei: But with three seconds left, the snap is bad, the kick is pushed wide right, and we're going to overtime. What a game.

Chiefs get a field goal on their first drive. Baltimore's driving, but we're already at the two-minute warning, and it occurs to me that a tie will help both teams.

Tom Gower: Baltimore wins almost every tiebreaker, so they don't benefit much from a tie and should just play for the win. Which they'll now have to do with RG3 after Lamar Jackson was taken down on a sack to make it third-and-22.

Vince Verhei: A hold and a sack makes it third-and-22, and worse, Jackson is hurt and has to leave. Robert Griffin comes in to finish things off. His first pass is nearly intercepted. His fourth-down pass is accurate, but it's broken up by a Chiefs defender (missed the number) to end the game. It was borderline DPI, but there's no way they're going to call something that ticky-tack on fourth-and-ballgame. Chiefs clinch a playoff spot. Ravens remain in a very crowded wild-card race, especially with Miami, Indianapolis, and Tennessee all winning this week.

Also, while we're sharing highlights today, here's that Mahomes no-look pass I was talking about earlier. Everything about this says pass down the middle, but that's not where it goes.

Rob Weintraub: I think we all can agree that "Showtime" is a stupid nickname for Mahomes. I propose "Sundance," because like Robert Redford's gunslinger, he's deadly accurate on the move.

Vince Verhei: Best I've heard is "Post Mahomes." And I don't think I've ever even heard a Post Malone song.

Scott Kacsmar: I'm still good with "Ketchup" as Mahomes' nickname. He allegedly loves ketchup, and you can make it a play on words with "catch up" since he's forcing every team to have to play from behind against him. But today was a tough one. Didn't have the late lead until overtime, then the defense had to finish it off. Good different type of win for the Chiefs this year. Baltimore is a tough opponent despite the record.

New York Giants 40 at Washington Redskins 16

Bryan Knowles: Like the Texans/Colts game, this one has opened with punt after punt after punt. Just 62 combined yards at the end of the first quarter, with six of the seven drives ending with someone punting the ball away. The other drive was a terrible, terrible pick-six by Mark Sanchez, who was apparently the best quarterback Washington could find. For a team still in the running for playoff position, that's embarrassing.

Uh, allow me to amend my first-quarter update here. The Giants have gotten slightly better in the second half, turning a 7-0 lead into a 34-0 lead going into halftime. Saquon Barkley is just devouring Washington; he has 159 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. Washington seems neither willing nor able to stop him.

As for Washington. Mark Sanchez's first-half line: 5-for-13, 30 yards, two interceptions. Their longest drive of the game was the first one, which gained 14 yards, 12 of which came on one Adrian Peterson run. They have just 51 yards of total offense. If Sanchez was picked because he "understands the system," then the system sucks.

Vince Verhei: Let's learn to count with Mark Sanchez!

0: passing first downs.
1: pick-six.
2: total interceptions.
3: sacks.

And that's enough for today.

Wait! Now we're up to four sacks! and five sacks! as Washington opens the second half with a three-and-out.

Mark Sanchez has been benched for Josh Johnson, the top draft pick in the Alliance of American Football, or whatever it's called.

Bryan Knowles: And now we're down to Josh Johnson in Washington. Everyone involved with this "finding a backup quarterback" situation should be fired, immediately.

Dave Bernreuther: I just looked up and thought I saw Mark Sanchez running a read-option keeper, which of course brought to mind the Kap jokes, but it was actually Josh Johnson. He of the five-touchdown, 10-interception career ratio with six years off. That also apparently "knew the system." If the system is "try not to score any points," then Washington's quarterback plan is BRILLIANT.

At least Gruden didn't kick a field goal from the 20 to avoid the shutout just now...

Vince Verhei: I'm sorry Dave, you must be mistaken. I was specifically told that Washington could not sign Colin Kaepernick because they could not install an option offense midseason. I'm sure what looked like an option was really just clever sleight-of-hand.

Bryan Knowles: Josh Johnson's most recent NFL pass was 421 days before Colin Kaepernick played in the Super Bowl. At one point in the past five years, Johnson was Kaepernick's backup's backup. This is an embarrassment.

New York Jets 27 at Buffalo Bills 23

Dave Bernreuther: The quarterback play in this one is about what you'd expect. So, perhaps wisely, the Bills have been using Josh Allen as a runner, which you'd think defenses would expect by now, and as a RECEIVER, which they wouldn't.

The pass to him in the end zone on a bit of a deeper Philly Special ball was a bit short, allowing the defender to catch up, but hell, Zay Jones is still probably the most accurate quarterback on the field. Allen has as usual been missing guys -- including another clean-pocket scramble that has morons gushing about his running while ignoring the fact that the tight end (Logan Thomas, not Charles Clay) was running uncovered down the seam and would've scored -- and with the Jets knocking on the door at the other end, Darnold threw way over Robby Anderson's head and forced the Jets to choose a field goal.

That's actually Darnold's only miss so far, but it was a baaaad one. Allen, meanwhile, has less than 5 yards per throw and more than 12 per rush. And people are EXCITED about this. Sigh.

A penalty wipes out a bad Josh Allen throw, and then a penalty wipes out a good Josh Allen throw (he completed a pass to a teammate behind the line of scrimmage; for Allen, this is noteworthy). And then, well, I'll let someone post a Tweet of his horrible decision and pick ... and so now he has an interception to go with his lost fumble.

And in non-Josh Allen news, the Bills seem to be trying to commit a penalty on every play here in the second quarter. Multiple false starts at home is not a good look, guys.

Bryan Knowles: Ask and you shall receive, Dave.

Dave Bernreuther: A Sam Darnold run on third-and-goal is stopped about an inch from the goal line. There's a delay while the injury cart comes out. It's 23-20 Bills with 1:22 left and the Jets are 3-9 and committing penalties every other play.

I shouldn't be so surprised that Todd Bowles sent the offense back onto the field. But I am. And the Jets ... can't lose on a field goal.

The Jets are now kneeling this one out already because -- color me shocked -- Josh Allen threw a terrible ball that was easily intercepted. Todd Bowles goes aggressive and is rewarded. Good for him.

Vince Verhei: And yet, they were only in the game because Allen ran for 100 yards and a score again. He's like Michael Vick, but even worse at passing and even better at running.

Dave Bernreuther: Which is why people will continue to be foolishly optimistic and keep trying to defend him ... ugh.

I have a hard time agreeing that he's better at running. They're just not defending it well just yet. Miami sort of tried to spy him, but they used Kiko Alonso's corpse. The Jets just left wide open swaths of field in front of him today. And hell, even his longest run was worse than the easy touchdown pass it should have been.

Opposing defenses are going to learn that they can just play the run, spy him some, and dare him to be accurate in order to beat them. And that'll be that, I think, since...

Denver Broncos 14 at San Francisco 49ers 20

Bryan Knowles: George Kittle has broken Vernon Davis' franchise record for receiving yards by a tight end, which is pretty good considering that he's catching passes from the junior varsity squad. He already has four receptions for 94 yards at the end of the first quarter, and should be one of a couple of49ers on the NFC Pro Bowl offense (considering that Kyle Juszczyk is the only NFC fullback with any usage whatsoever). It's a 6-0 lead over playoff-contending Denver, early. Hey, gotta celebrate what you can in a lost season.

I'm continuing to beat the Kittle-for-Pro Bowl drum after he just caught a pass at the 30 and lumbered 70 yards into the end zone. That was more Shanahan than Kittle, though; he caught the ball with nothing but daylight between him and the end zone, as the Denver linebackers were creeping up to defend against the run. 13-0, San Francisco -- a loss for Denver would be pretty bad in the tight AFC wild-card race.

Scott Kacsmar: Well I think Kittle will obviously get a Pro Bowl nod. His only real competition is Zach Ertz, assuming they're still back to doing conference voting. The question is would there be any chance he could get All-Pro consideration, or is that Travis Kelce's to lose? Kittle is a YAC machine and looks very athletic despite falling to the fifth round. First truly great draft pick for the John Lynch era. Also, this is a bad week for the Broncos to lose Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles) after trading away Demaryius Thomas. Hard to fathom that offense without both, and we're seeing the early results aren't good.

Bryan Knowles: They're doing conference teams, but not conference ~voting~ -- you can vote for four AFC tight ends if you really want to, but only two will make the team.

Yes, this is dumb, why do you ask?

The all-time single-game record for tight end receiving yards is 214, by Shannon Sharpe for the Broncos back in 2002. George Kittle has 210 yards in the first half.

The all-time single-game record for receiving yards by a 49er is 289, by Jerry Rice in 1995 against the Vikings. Kittle has 210 yards in the first half; he currently ranks ninth in 49ers history behind Rice, Rice, Rice, Rice, John Taylor, Terrell Owens, Dave Parks, and Bernie Casey.

20-0 at the half, as the 49ers are apparently unbeatable*

*offer only good when playing at home against teams from the AFC West.

Dave Bernreuther: CBS showed a graphic about Kittle being 4 yards shy of Shannon Sharpe's record of 214 receiving yards by a tight end, and I found myself hoping they'd take a penalty from first-and-goal at the 3 so that he could break it in the first half. Alas, he did not, and Nick Mullens lobbed one to Dante Pettis instead for a short score. 20-0 against that defense headed into the break is a pretty impressive result. Most of that was Kittle's YAC, but Mullens ... really doesn't look any worse than a lot of the other quarterbacks in the league right now. Just like last year, the 49ers are rounding into form late in the season. They really don't look like a 2-10 team. Gotta give a nod to Kyle Shanahan there.

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 at Oakland Raiders 24

Bryan Knowles: The game hasn't kicked off yet, but we have some early news -- apparently, Oakland general manager Reggie McKenzie will not be returning in 2019. That should probably be fine, though; Jon Gruden has said that players are "dying" to join his team, so they should have a really big offseason with Gruden behind the controls.

Scott Kacsmar: The Steelers have struggled on defense to start this one, leaving Jared Cook too open when he has clearly been the most consistent receiving threat for the Raiders all year. Hmm, sounds like Keenan Allen last week for the Chargers. If they don't get pressure, it's going to be a long day. At least Ben Roethlisberger looks sharp on the road. He has hit nine of his first 11 with a third-down, drive-killing drop by JuJu Smith-Schuster to start things. Stevan Ridley finished off a drive with a short touchdown to tie the game at 7.

You have the least-pressured quarterback (Roethlisberger) against the worst defense at creating pressure this season. All Oakland really needs, though, is a couple of third-down stops today. They came up with a sack to force a field goal attempt from 39 yards, and Chris Boswell missed it badly. He's having a lousy season and that has been the case since Week 1.

JuJu redeemed himself by pulling down a high Roethlisberger pass in the end zone and tapping his feet down for a touchdown before halftime. Boswell hit the post on the extra point, but it deflected through. Pittsburgh should lead 14-10 at halftime.

Bryan Knowles: The 49ers' success might end up benefiting the Raiders here, who have just made the clutch move of surrendering the lead to the Steelers. They went three-and-out after the Boswell missed field goal, and Pittsburgh marched down the field behind Smith-Schuster and Vance McDonald to take the lead, 14-10.

Roethlisberger took a big shot at the end of the first half, and so Josh Dobbs has been put into the game. This is, I assume, not a drill -- the last two times I've sent the "Big Ben is hurt!" email, he has been back within two plays. It looks like this one might be for real, though.

Scott Kacsmar: It's a rib injury for Roethlisberger. The sack on an earlier drive seemed to be the culprit, but he played after that obviously. Joshua Dobbs played that whole drive, though, and it wasn't a good start. This will be a big one to monitor with the New England game coming up next.

Bryan Knowles: The race for that No. 1 draft pick just got a little bit tighter. Oakland has taken the lead over the Steelers, taking advantage of Pittsburgh's inability to get anything going with Josh Dobbs. They've had three punts and a fumble since Dobbs has come into the game; it's worth noting that Big Ben is throwing on the sidelines but has not come back into the game. That would keep the 49ers in the No. 1 draft slot even if they won, but THAT game is more in question now, as San Francisco has done zip in the second half, and Denver has made it a six-point game.

Correction: Roethlisberger HAS come back into the game. And he immediately leads the Steelers on a 75-yard touchdown drive. Big Ben may be slightly better than Josh Dobbs, #Analysis

Vince Verhei: I've only been watching this out of the corner of my eye, but every time I look at it, Derek Carr is making a brilliant pass, squeezing balls into tight windows. I don't know why they only have 17 points, but I just checked his numbers and he's over 9 yards per pass, so it's not just my imagination. And then he drops one neatly into the basket for Seth Roberts for a 47-yard gain. Raiders are now down 21-17, but have a first-and-goal at the 7 with 1:16 to go. And on fourth-and-goal, with two tight ends to the left, Derek Carrier gets open on an out-and-in for the touchdown. The extra point puts Oakland up 24-21 with 21 seconds to go.

Bryan Knowles: We've had back-to-back-to-back 70-plus-yard drives here to make this exciting at the end. A bomb to Seth Roberts gave the Raiders a first-and-goal inside the 10, but it took them all four shots to finally get into the end zone.

And NOW Big Ben finds James Washington, who laterals back to JuJu for a 54-yard gain with five seconds to go!

Boswell out for the tying field goal ... .and it's BLOCKED!

The Raiders win! Holy cow, what a finish.

Vince Verhei: SO MANY INSANE ENDINGS TODAY.

Steelers run a hook-and-lateral, and for the second time today, IT WORKS! Smith-Schuster takes the pitch and zips downfield, pushed out of bounds with five seconds to go. With no timeouts, they go for the field goal right away -- but Boswell slips on the Oakland turf and falls on his ass, and the kick is blocked to end things.

Rob Weintraub: Between the hook-and-lateral in this game and the excellent end to the Fish-Pats game it was like Tony D'Amato got a long-awaited job in the NFL. "Call Comanche!"

Detroit Lions 17 at Arizona Cardinals 3

Dave Bernreuther: I wanted to watch a Josh Rosen closely in this one, but this game has just been brutal to watch. And to play in, apparently, as Detroit seemed to lose half their defense in a series of plays at the end of the first. This one has been really ugly in just about every way so far, including the playing surface (how does it get that bad in that dome/special high-tech growing pallet?) and the Cardinals uniforms (cardinals are red, you jabronis). It's 3-0 and not yet halftime, and nothing about the way Matthew Stafford or the Lions are playing makes me confident in their two-minute drill.

After the punt, the Cardinals take over on their 25 with about the same number of seconds left ... and run a give-up draw.

Then they call timeout with 0:24 left. Um, OK.

Next play is a draw to David Johnson. He gets the first down, and the Cardinals let the clock run out and run to the locker room. Mission accomplished?

If you have three timeouts and 30 seconds left, you should TRY TO SCORE. But if you decide not to ... why run those plays at all? Take a knee and avoid the injury risk. What the hell was the point of that sequence?

Philadelphia Eagles 23 at Dallas Cowboys 29 (OT)

Vince Verhei: Carson Wentz is having a terrible day (42 net yards on 10 dropbacks, with a sack and a fumble, plus a failed run on a third-and-1 option play), and yet the Cowboys are lucky to be up 6-0 at halftime. Dallas has had three drives of 50 yards or more, ending in one interception, one field goal, and one missed field goal. They got bailed out on the last play of the half when Brett Maher made up for his earlier miss with a 62-yard field goal. Eagles can't get anything going at all, but the Cowboys can't get anything going in Eagles territory. Best player of the half may have been Rasul Douglas -- he had the interception in the end zone for Philadelphia, and also eluded Tyron Smith to tackle Michael Gallup on a third-and-forever wide receiver screen. That led to the missed field goal, which might have been good if it had been closer.

Aaron Schatz: OK, it's a little nuts that this game is just 6-0 Dallas at halftime, and at the same time it's a little nuts that this game even made it to 6-0.

The latter because it required a 62-yard field goal by Brett Maher going into halftime after Tyron Smith got called for offensive holding while the Cowboys were trying to get into a more realistic field goal range.

But honestly the Cowboys should be winning by more than this. They've completely outplayed the Eagles today. At halftime the Cowboys are outgaining the Eagles 233-70. The problem is how the Dallas drives at ended. A 10-play, 69-yard drive ended when Dak Prescott threw a pick to Rasul Douglas, who he completely missed because he was concentrating on Amari Cooper who was being covered by someone else. Then a 10-play, 52-yard drive (77 yards before penalties) ended with a missed 45-yard field goal by Maher. In my Upset Watch column for ESPN, I pointed out that the Cowboys are 31st in offensive DVOA in the red zone this year. Well, in the first half the Cowboys were in the red zone twice. One time stalled out, leading to the first field goal. The second time moved backwards with penalties, leading to the missed field goal.

The Eagles have had only four drives. The first one was seven plays, 36 yards, a good job of moving the football. But the next two went three-and-out and the fourth ended on a Wentz fumble when Tyrone Crawford pushed past Jason Peters and slapped the ball out of Wentz's hand.

Tom Gower: Our latest instalment of the Cowboys vs. scoring territory, a continuing struggle, and another instalment of Texas NFL teams and their difficulty creating explosive plays. Amari Cooper does have a 27-yard catch and Zeke a 20-yard run, but this is another team that has to repeatedly execute to score and isn't elite at repeated execution. Fortunately, like the other Texas NFL team, they have a really good defensive line and some other talented defenders, so can be in position to succeed notwithstanding what they lack on offense. Or maybe I'm just seeing the same thing because I'm used to seeing it.

Aaron Schatz: And despite getting outplayed all day, the Eagles now have it within three points because Dak Prescott totally airmailed a pass to Michael Gallup and Corey Graham returned it 28 yards from the Cowboys 30. Hard to blame the Cowboys defense for letting the Eagles score when they only got to defend 2 freakin' yards. But the Eagles miss the extra point so we're at 9-6. The Eagles are still going to have to figure out a way to get their offense going to actually win this game. Their oft-lauded offensive line is getting dominated by the Dallas front.

Vince Verhei: So it turns out Dak Prescott can make terrible plays at both ends of the field. He overthrows Michael Gallup, and it's an easy interception for Corey Graham, who returns it to the Dallas 2. Next play, Alshon Jeffery scores on a wide receiver screen, but then Jake Elliott misses the extra point, so Dallas still leads 9-6.

This game is drunk.

So it turns out Dak Prescott can also make terrible plays in the middle of the field -- he gets hit and stripped by Michael Bennett, and the Eagles recover. On the last play of the third quarter, the Eagles go for it on fourth-and-3, just inside of Dallas territory. Darren Sproles slips out of the backfield, and turns a Wentz dumpoff into a 22-yard gain. That's Philadelphia's first completion of the game that has gained more than 12 yards, and almost all of them came after the catch.

Aaron Schatz: OK, another fumble by Dak Prescott, this has not been a very good game for him. The Eagles move the ball down from the Philly 45 to third-and-goal from the Dallas 8. I don't understand the play call here. I understand throwing to Zach Ertz, but it's a short crossing route 5 yards short of the goal line. It would be very hard for him to get in from there unless the Cowboys had left him wide open. He doesn't even catch the ball, though, so the Eagles kick a field goal and we're now at 9-9.

Vince Verhei: Of all the times for this rule to be called ... Ezekiel Elliott takes a dumpoff, breaks a tackle, and picks up a first down -- but then gets a personal foul for lowering his head to initiate contact. Worse, he shows why that rule was put in place, as he's woozy and has to leave. The Eagles commit pass interference to bail the Cowboys out somewhat, but now Zack Martin is down.

Aaron Schatz: Apparently, according to ESPN Stats & Info, this is the first time all year -- and thus, the first time all-time -- this penalty was called against an offensive player.

Bryan Knowles: Hey, Dak just did something good for a change. Amari Cooper outruns Sidney Jones, and a perfectly thrown ball gives Dallas the lead back.

Aaron Schatz: De'Vante Bausby has been bouncing around practice squads for three years and wasn't on the Eagles active roster until three weeks ago. He should not be covering Amari Cooper one-on-one, even with safety help. Cooper just beat him and then went all the way to the house to make this game 23-16 just one play after the Eagles had tied it at 16.

Vince Verhei: A bad drive and a bad punt set the Eagles up in Dallas territory, and they make it pay off with a four-play touchdown drive to tie the score. Dallas Goedert with a 26-yard gain and then the 3-yard score on the drive.

Next play from scrimmage, Cooper runs down the right sideline, and it's a 75-yard touchdown and Dallas is ahead again. Philly's ravaged secondary is finally breaking down. Cooper now up to 182 yards and two scores.

Aaron Schatz: Oh, boy, did they just call an iffy OPI on Dallas Goedert on what would have been a game-tying touchdown. He pushed off Jeff Heath oh so slightly, a couple of seconds before Carson Wentz got the pass to him. It was a really light push-off.

Rob Weintraub: Philly gets a long pass to Goedert, who breaks a tackle and goes the distance, only to see it wiped out by an extremely dodgy OPI. Wentz is then sacked, but an extremely dodgy roughing the passer wipes THAT out. Jeez.

Aaron Schatz: Here's a link to the two penalties. I actually understand the roughing the passer more than the OPI, because I think this is the "Brady rule" for going below the knee.

Rob Weintraub: It was definitely the Carson Palmer Rule ... oh, right.

Aaron Schatz: So, the Eagles score and tie the game, 23-23. Wentz launches a beautiful pass to Alshon Jeffrey along the left sideline, which gets the ball to the 2, and then after Wentz loses yardage on a run, Sproles goes in on a 6-yard touchdown pass. I think Pederson makes the right decision not to go for two to try to win the game. Same situation as Carolina a couple ofweeks ago, right? The problem is that a two-point conversion doesn't win you the game because Dallas has 1:35 left to try to come back with a field goal. If you miss the two, you have to recover an onside kick. If you make the two, you are taking the lead but also encouraging Dallas to play aggressively on offense, whereas they might play conservatively with the tie to try to get to overtime.

Tom Gower: 23-all in overtime. OK, so Dallas gets a couple Amari Cooper deep passes for touchdowns, both explosive plays and allowing them to avoid their bete noire of scoring territory.

Aaron Schatz: Think it was on Jason Garrett's mind that he got criticized for not going for it on fourth-and-1 in overtime earlier this year? The funny thing is ... we'll have to wait to see the EdjSports numbers, but I bet it was the right decision to kick the field goal, not to go for it, BECAUSE of the fact that a tie in this game probably wins the NFC East for Dallas. A tie is almost as good as a win for them because they would be 1-0-1 against the Eagles on the season for the tiebreaker (and would still have a one-game lead with three to play and the Eagles still having to go to Los Angeles).

Well, that's all an intellectual exercise because the Cowboys convert fourth-and-1, and then on third-and-8, the ball bounces off defender Rasul Douglas' hand and back into the arms of Amari Cooper who scores the game-winning touchdown. I feel awful for Douglas. He made the play and deflected the pass! The Cowboys essentially just won the NFC East.

Cincinnati Bengals 21 at Los Angeles Chargers 26

Rob Weintraub: Incredibly, the Bengals should be beating the Chargers in front of about 22,000 fans in L.A. Philip Rivers carved them up early to go up 14-3, but Cincy stopped them for three consecutive three-and-outs. Meanwhile, Jeff Driskel appeared to score on a headfirst dive on the goal line, but the new rule saying he "gave himself up" at that point spotted it at the half-yard line. Alex Redmond then false-started, and the Bengals kicked.

They then scored to make it 14-12 with fewer than 30 seconds left. Of course, they also allowed L.A. to score before halftime, thanks in large part to Jordan Willis, who jumped offsides to negate a sack and give L.A. 5 yards to kick a 59-yard field goal as time expired. I don't have it in front of me, but I believe the Bengals have given up points in the last 2:37 of the half in every single game this season, and under two minutes in all but one.

Marv Lewis opens the second half by going for fourth-and-1 at his own 36. Right call, wrong result -- stuffed, of course. L.A. goes on fourth-and-1 themselves, converts, and get three more. 20-12 Chargers.

The Bengals drive inside L.A.'s 35, face fourth-and-7, rightly decide to go for it -- and false start. Rookie center Billy Price, the first-round draft pick whose errant snap cost Andy Dalton his season, rocks back before the shotgun snap.

You just can't make it up.

Bengals with a superb 75-yard drive capped by a Joe Mixon touchdown run to get to 23-21, but the two-point attempt is a quick read that gets taken away, and by the time Driskel comes back to secondary guys he's sacked. Cincy has two timeouts, but on the other side of the two-minute warning, so may onside here.

Either way, they are definitely covering the 16-point spread.

Bad two-point conversion, bad onside kick. Two things Cincy does not do well. L.A. ball, 1:50 left, Austin Ekeler is hurt so watch that, he would presumably have gotten some carries here.

Ouch, Clayton Fejedelem and Ekeler slammed helmet to helmet on the kick, just a football play but surely he's into the protocol.

Los Angeles Rams 6 at Chicago Bears 15

Aaron Schatz: Both quarterbacks have had accuracy issues in this game, and not necessarily because of pressure either. With 4:55 left in the second quarter, both quarterbacks are just 7-for-15. Jared Goff seems to be underthrowing guys and Mitchell Trubisky has dangerously airmailed a couple of passes, one of which became an easy interception for Marcus Peters.

Carl Yedor: The Rams are about to go three-and-out, continuing a struggle of an offensive night, and they pull out a fake punt from former high school quarterback Johnny Hekker. After converting the fake after a challenge to overturn the spot, L.A. cruises down the field before stalling out in field goal range, leading to a 50-yard kick from Greg Zuerlein. We're knotted up at 6-6 as Chicago is driving at the two-minute warning.

Tom Gower: 6-6 game at the half. Both teams have three points on a short field after a turnover and three points on a drive by the offense (and special teams, for the Rams). Both quarterbacks have been somewhere between not-so-good and awful, throwing two interceptions each after Eddie Jackson picked off Goff's Hail Mary. Pressure seems to have gotten to Goff; not that bad, I don't think, but enough to make him uncomfortable and off balance. It doesn't help that the Rams haven't been able to run the ball at all (Todd Gurley has five carries for 11 yards). Trubisky, well, he's not making change my opinion that there's no real consistency in his game. It's cold, but I don't think it's that windy, and plenty of teams have put up points in expected cold before, so I'm not buying that excuse for that sloppy first half.

Aaron Schatz: The Bears not only got a safety, they marched the ball up the field 81 yards after the free kick and then got one of the coolest plays I've seen in a while. They brought in all these fat guys and then threw a pass to a completely different fat guy! They had defensive linemen at running back and at tight end, but instead of a handoff they play-action and Trubisky throws to an eligible right tackle, Bradley Sowell, sneaking out. It was beautiful. 15-6 Bears.

Carl Yedor: BIG GUY TOUCHDOWN. Chicago lines up like they're going to hand the ball to Akiem Hicks, putting everyone in the box on third-and-goal. But no! They run play-action and throw to Bradley Sowell, a tackle lined up as an eligible receiver! Consider me all aboard the Matt Nagy express.

Aaron Schatz: Seriously, there was not a single wide receiver, tight end, or running back on the field for that play. Six offensive linemen, four defensive linemen, and a quarterback. That was wild.

Tom Gower: Technical question: how are we describing that personnel package?

Bryan Knowles: "Awesome."

Aaron Schatz: Trubisky just airmailed another interception, over the head of his receiver and into the arms of John Johnson. What is going on that Trubisky keeps throwing too high?

And Kyle Fuller answers by jumping the route on Goff's first throw. Back-to-back interceptions, one by each team.

Somebody please tell Collinsworth that Gurley's inability to run isn't killing the Rams' ability to play-action. It's the Bears' defensive line pressure that's killing the Rams' ability to play-action.

Tom Gower: Final, Bears win 15-6. A thorough domination of the previously nigh-impenetrable Rams offensive line, completely shutting down Todd Gurley and forcing Goff to be uncomfortable all night. He looked bad, and I give a lot of the credit to the guys in his face and not finding the open receivers to beat the coverage. Trubisky didn't really end up doing anything, but he didn't lose the game by himself and that ended up being all that mattered.

Scott Kacsmar: I thought that was largely a poorly played game by both offenses, especially the quarterbacks. The defenses contributed, but just a lot of bad throws too. Sean McVay also didn't use his timeouts well. Very sloppy all around. Never really felt in doubt after the fat guy touchdown made it 15-6. Fortunately for the Rams, they'll avoid playing in Chicago in the playoffs, but may have to go back to New Orleans after giving up control of the No. 1 seed again to the Saints.

Also, keep making the point about regression and the Bears defense, but this is crazy stuff. They now have 25 interceptions in 13 games after having 24 interceptions in the previous three seasons combined. Goff never had a game with more than two picks before tossing four tonight. One was a Hail Mary before halftime, but hey, the Bears will add that to the tally too. So I'd still be skeptical of a Dallas or Chicago winning on the road in January, but these last two weeks show there's some hope that it won't just be a two-team race in January and an inevitable rematch between the Saints and Rams for the Super Bowl.

Dave Bernreuther: Well, that was impressive.

When I picked the Vikings to win the NFC before the season, I did so for two reasons: the first was that I totally forgot about the Saints; the second, and much more important, was that for as well coached and talented as this team is, Jared Goff is still not actually any good. He has certainly been much better since they shed Fisher, and on the right nights, he can make all the throws that McVay asks him to ... but if you make his job difficult, he's only just good enough to get you beat. He's still the weak link of that team, by far, and I predicted that the Rams would cruise to the 1 seed but still lose before the Super Bowl, and tonight is exactly why I thought that. Goff spent a LOT of time running away from immediate pressure. But he also made some terrible throws when there wasn't any. He looked awful. Hopeless, even when he had time.

But...

There's still a flip side to that argument. And we saw it on the flip side of the field. Because Trubisky was worse. It was his worst game of the year. And it didn't matter a lick, because the defense was insanely good. On their quarterback's worst night, they dominated an 11-1 team. Which means that come January, anything is possible. So even though I can explain WHY I predicted that about the Rams and point to this game as a great example ... this game is also excellent evidence of why my prediction was stupid.

I don't look forward to the AFC playoffs very much, with Houston's and Pittsburgh's performances today being a large reason why ... but the NFC playoffs, especially if the Seahawks keep improving, are starting to look like they could be even better than we expected at the start of the season.

Comments

229 comments, Last at 16 Dec 2018, 1:01am

1 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by DavidL // Dec 10, 2018 - 10:35am

The Eagles have two overtime losses this year and their total time of possession in those two OT periods is 0:00. That about sums up the season.

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163 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by TheWolffer // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:01pm

In the Titans game Eagles actually did get the ball first, got a FG, gave up the TD on the ensuing drive. Regardless, still been a rough year. As an Eagles fan I am just happy they got it done last year because you never know if/when you'll make it back.

I don't think I am too worried long term just yet. The offense has been incredibly frustrating and Wentz has been very inconsistent but sometimes years like this just happen.

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2 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 10:37am

"They line up 5 yards closer ... and miss the extra point. So, according to the refs, they accepted the penalty only so they could re-try a kick they had already made.

There HAS to be something else there, and I look forward to post-game explanations, because ... wha?

Andrew Potter: That might be the most Browns thing that ever happened in the entire history of the multiverse."

The penalty was a dead-ball foul - the kick just happened because some of the players kept going, but the whistle had already blown. If it were a live-ball foul, they obviously would've taken the kick. It wasn't offsides - it was a neutral zone infraction. The Panthers jumped offsides and caused a Browns player to move. No play.

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20 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Dave Bernreuther // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:29am

Ah, excellent. Thank you for explaining that.

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127 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Bryan Knowles // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:40pm

See, that makes sense. But it wasn't what the referees announced at the time. So I'll place the blame on the refs for being unclear rather than anything else.

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157 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dbt // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:43pm

I think the confusion is because the kicking team has to elect whether or not to re-kick with a 5 yard move forward or take the 2 pt attempt from the 1 yard line, so he explained that they elected to move forward and take the kick, but it sounded like they accepted the penalty.

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3 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 10:48am

The officiating in the Eagles/Cowboys game was really, really bad. I mean, cover your eyes bad. It's always a horrible look for the NFL when the former official in the booth is like "huh...?" over a penalty, and in that game there were *two* of them in quick succession.

And that's not even mentioning the screwup on the opening kickoff, where I have no idea why the official blew the whistle there (or how that wasn't a clear recovery, but whatever). Yeah, he couldn't see the ball being out, but he definitely could see the players rushing to jump on something, and there's no downside to waiting to blow the whistle.

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4 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by BritPop // Dec 10, 2018 - 10:48am

So if the Pats don't take that last timeout and instead run the clock down to 20 seconds and jump offsides...it's game over right?

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28 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:37am

Clock stops on offensive penalty in the last 5 minutes of the second half.

Precisely to prevent this tactic.

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5 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 10, 2018 - 10:50am

Much has been made about the decision to put Gronk out on defense in an obvious non-Hail Mary situation.

I was still calling Belichick a moron for kicking the field goal prior to that play. 4th and goal from the six with less than 20 seconds left? I thought the obvious play was to go for it on fourth. Either a) the Patriots get the clinching touchdown, or b) Miami takes over from their own 6 yard line, about 10 seconds left (perhaps significantly fewer if Brady takes the snap and moves around a bit before throwing) and no times out?

I'm still calling Belichick a moron for that one, but I've read nothing else about it. Am I wrong? Why score to go up by 4 when a) a Field Goal isn't a plausible option for Miami, b) puts a kickoff return in play?

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7 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by BritPop // Dec 10, 2018 - 10:54am

agreed (and since i had Pats -7.5, thats what i wanted)...but i think they could have just taken the offsides penalty and not run a 4th down play at all...

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8 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 10, 2018 - 10:58am

I didn't even mention the possibility of a blocked FG/return for TD. Just baffling. Frankly, they'd have been better served if Gostkowski shanked the kick.

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12 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:18am

Pretty sure you mean a false start rather than offsides, but the runoff can be declined by the other team, so that doesn't work.

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21 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by BritPop // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:30am

No, they can't decline the runoff but it turns out it doesn't work inside the last 2 minutes...the Bears did it last night on a punt and got an extra 25 seconds run off

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30 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:39am

Yes, they can decline the runoff. It's flat out in the rulebook. Section 7, Article 1. "The defense always has the option to decline the 10-second runoff and have the yardage penalty enforced, but if the yardage penalty is declined, the 10-second runoff is also declined."

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75 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by BritPop // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:53pm

Yeah but i was talking about just starting the play clock again at 25, not the 10-second runoff...the Bears did it last night but it doesn't apply inside the last 2 minutes of a half.

The game clock was running when the Bears committed a deliberate false start (with the play clock down almost to zero); after the penalty the play clock reset and started, so the Bears ran off 50 seconds of game clock between snaps.

Again, not relevant in the last two minutes.

The deliberate holding play would have worked though...

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96 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:15pm

It's actually the last *5* minutes of the second half for that. And while you could basically do anything you wanted on the 4th down play offensively (holding, offensive pass interference, etc.) the other team could always decline the penalty and take the result. So probably the sleaziest thing you could do is go for it on 4th down, commit OPI intentionally and score a TD. Then the opponent's only real choice is to take the penalty. But of course even in that situation there's no guarantee you'd make it on 4th down, although the intentional penalty would help.

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207 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by tuluse // Dec 11, 2018 - 1:17pm

Refs always have the option of palpably unfair.

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34 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Yu Narukami // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:41am

Thank you, I was looking for this.

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13 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Yu Narukami // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:20am

I'll take everytime to go up 5 with :07 on the clock and opponent on the 31. That crazy play happens 1/1000.

However, what happened if the Pats took the delay? Was there a way to waste other 25 seconds? (even if that would have lead to countless unsportsman conduct debates...). I am asking because I am not that educated in those ruling minutiae.

I am also ok with the Gronk and the Hail Mary personnel. I understand Tannehill was not a credible threat but there was 3-4 occasions of stop that (#31 playing the ball instead of tackling the guy).

Anyhow, game was also lost by whiffing an XP, a feasible FG and the Brady sack at the end of the half.

Negative side: goodbye to #1 seed.
Positive side: HOU and PIT losses. Offense was on fire and 3rd down pressure was fine (even with opponent adjustment). Yet this team has no good chances in the PO if forced to play outside Foxboro.

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19 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:28am

Yes, but getting 55-60 yards of field position, then getting your field goal unit on the line of scrimmage, and getting the kick through the uprights, in less than 15 seconds, with no timeouts, might be 1 in 10,000.

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29 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:37am

"I'll take everytime to go up 5 with :07 on the clock and opponent on the 31. That crazy play happens 1/1000."

No way - kicking the field goal was absolutely, 100% a mistake. Without a doubt. Kneeling on 4th down might have been a better option.

Think about it. Kicking the field goal gives Miami the ball on the 25, with enough time for one play. Kneeling gives them the ball on the *6 yard line*, with enough time for one play. The fact that a field goal wins it in that situation is irrelevant - there's *not enough time* to get from the 6 yard line into field goal range and run another play. Miami had no timeouts. It was just a mistake, full stop.

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41 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Noah Arkadia // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:50am

Surely a DPI on a Hail Mary isn't more unlikely than what actually happened.

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52 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:06pm

A Hail Mary from the *6* (or closer)?? I wouldn't try to defend that! Blitz the hell out of the guy. He seriously wouldn't have enough room for normal Hail Mary pass protection.

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42 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Yu Narukami // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:50am

That is probably something I would have done in a Madden game too.

But I think BB was confindent to control the situation with his disciplined team. Yeah, right.

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48 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Yu Narukami // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:02pm

Double.

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51 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:06pm

22 seconds is time for multiple plays.

Vikings beat the Saints on a two-play drive with 0:25 left. Rodgers converted two Hails Mary on a drive against the Cardinals in the 2015 divisional round.

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55 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:19pm

Not 22 seconds, most likely 20. Vikings/Saints was 25 seconds starting at the 20 *with one timeout*. Packers/Cardinals started at the Green Bay 4, but with *55 seconds* left.

But you're missing the point a bit: Both of those were *touchdowns*. I'm not saying they couldn't've won it with a touchdown in that situation. I'm saying they couldn't've won it with a *field goal*. Because that's the only difference between those two situations - the Patriots gave 25 yards of field position to prevent the Dolphins from winning with a field goal in a situation where it was nearly impossible to imagine them being able to do that.

I've seen wacky-lateral plays for touchdowns before. I would *love* for someone to find a team starting at the 5, 20 seconds or less with no timeouts, and winning the game on a field goal. I certainly don't remember it ever happening.

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57 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:23pm

Pittsburgh got into FG position starting a drive from their 30 with no TOs and 0:15 on the clock.
The Cowboys hit a 62 yard FG to end the half.

If you combine those plays, you have Miami in range for a makeable FG after the Pittsburgh version of the hook and ladder play, if the Pats had kneeled.

None of this is likely. There are no likely wins starting from this game condition.

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66 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Yu Narukami // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:31pm

"None of this is likely. There are no likely wins starting from this game condition."

That's the reasoning behind BB's decisions. In 99,99% scenarios you are confident your guys can manage hail marys and trick plays to end the game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjCXGo6oHyY

At 10:20 you have the biggest mistake: Jones (#31) playing the freaking ball for no reason, instead of putting the guy to the ground.

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84 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by RickD // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:05pm

He didn't go for the ball, he just took a terrible angle. That's something we see throughout the defense on that play: defenders jogging, taking bad angles, etc. They thought the game was over and didn't focus. It's that simple.

If they replayed that last play 100 times, the Dolphins wouldn't score again. The problem here was mental and team effort. It wasn't "Belichick was a moron for using the wrong strategy."

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92 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:12pm

Well, yes, the primary responsibility is always on the players, but the coach has to take the hit for having, somewhat obviously, the wrong players on the field. Having Gronk out the last play is only marginally more sensible than having the kicker or punter on the field, on a play where making a tackle is the only goal.

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122 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Bright Blue Shorts // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:32pm

I didn't like what #31 did on the final play.

I thought he tried to play the ball rather than the man. Maybe he did take the wrong angle on the player.

Thing is, I wondered how much the changes to rules about defenseless receivers influenced that decision?

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110 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:44pm

"Pittsburgh got into FG position starting a drive from their 30 with no TOs and 0:15 on the clock."

The Steelers *had* a timeout. They didn't use it, but it changes the defense: without timeouts you can literally sacrifice the middle of the field to protect the sidelines. And it's 25 yards closer - jeez, linemen can barely even *run* from the 6 yard line to field goal range in 15 seconds.

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74 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by RickD // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:53pm

"Kneeling gives them the ball on the *6 yard line*, with enough time for one play. "

Not really. You're ignoring the time spent on the kick-off. Also, you're ignoring the relative difficulty of getting a FG with 15 seconds left from the 6 as opposed to a getting a TD after a kickoff. The Dolphins burned time on the kickoff return so either way we're talking about two plays. And the FG forced Miami to score a TD.

My guestimate (comparing very small probabilities in both cases) is that the probability of scoring a TD after a kickoff with 15 seconds left is less than 1/10000. And perhaps scoring a FG after a pass completion from the 6 yard line with the same amount of time is equally likely. Regardless we are talking about the relative probabilities of two exceptionally unlikely events. Without any kind of way of calculating said probabilities, since both are so unlikely there's no reasonable way to sample the true probability.

Preferring one option over the other is hardly a "mistake, full stop." That kind of assertion is unjustifiable arrogance. In the Super Bowl era (50+ years of recorded games), no prior game had ever ended the way the game in Miami ended yesterday. So we're talking about 10,000 games with no prior evidence of any flaw in that strategy. Calling the decision a "mistake" is absurd.

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109 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:38pm

"Not really. You're ignoring the time spent on the kick-off."

Let me be clear, I said that kneeling *might* have been a better option. The "mistake, full stop" was with regards to not going for it. And in that case, you'd burn several seconds on the play. So a minor difference relative to the kickoff. You already a boost in your winning chances because if you go for it and succeed, you automatically win.

"That kind of assertion is unjustifiable arrogance. In the Super Bowl era (50+ years of recorded games), no prior game had ever ended the way the game in Miami ended yesterday."

Oh, that's a crazy distinction. Practically *every* game is unique - at least some component of "down, distance, score, time remaining, number of timeouts remaining" etc. differs. Big deal. Kickoff returns have happened before to win games. Crazy lateral plays have happened before to win games. We're not talking about protecting against those. Those plays are *always* going to be present. And situationally there's no reason to believe that the likelihood is any different.

The choice is simple: do you want to be up 2, with your opponent having the ball on the 6 yard line with 15-17 seconds left, or be up 5, with your opponent having the ball on the 31 yard line with 7 seconds left. To me, that's an absolutely obvious choice. I don't see how it's even debatable. The 3 points don't do anything, so the yardage and time are the only thing that matter.

And the reason why I say it's a mistake is simple: the *best* that could happen (other than P(crazy), which is always present) for the other team on the first play (from the 6) is to complete a 20-25 yard pass to the sidelines, to get them to the 30 or so with about 7-8 seconds left. That's just the amount of time it takes for that play to happen. But that puts them in the *exact same* situation as the other case, so by definition, going for it is the better option (because the probability for the 'best case' to happen must be less than 1, and you've also got the chance of scoring on 4th down).

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118 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Joe Pancake // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:22pm

You are fighting the good fight, Pat. I've read through all these comments and agree with your analysis.

Whatever the case, we are dealing with a few percentage points swing (at most), but one of the hallmarks of the Belichick-era is the Patriots shifting these few percentage points in their favor. It seems as if this was a rare misstep by The Hoodie.

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125 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:40pm

It's actually a bit interesting - really, if you think about it, this was a 4th down call. And up until about 2012, Belichick was one of the most aggressive coaches in the league. Back in 2006, FO's first Aggressiveness Index rated Belichick as nearly *twice as likely* to go for it on 4th down as opposing coaches. But... that really hasn't been true since then - last year Belichick was middle-of-the pack, basically about average.

So that's part of the reason why it feels so strikingly different to me - if this was 2009-2010, I think Belichick's going for it there.

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141 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:09pm

Has Belichick become more conservative, or has everyone else become more liberal?

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155 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:35pm

From the data, it looks like it's Belichick - at least in the 2012-2013 data, coaches *on the whole* were being more conservative, period. Which means Belichick became *significantly* more conservative. And if memory serves, the Aggressiveness Index measure is normalized to long-term baselines, which means Belichick going from an AI of ~1.8 to ~1.1 is a change in his tendencies, not the league's.

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205 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by RickD // Dec 11, 2018 - 12:56pm

What about the game on Sunday makes you think there was any possibility of a successful run from that position to the end zone?

The Patriots had no running game. They'd had 1st and goal from the 7 and managed to gain an entire yard in 3 plays. Certainly they could not reasonably expect to run it in from the 6 yard line. So that leaves them with the choice of a passing play, which burns no clock, or a FG, which nearly guarantees 3 points.

Having watched Belichick for 18 years, I think your conclusions about a decrease in aggressiveness are off, based on nothing more than narratives overfitting sparse data.

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212 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 11, 2018 - 1:44pm

Pass play burns a fairly respectable amount of time here. You don't need a ton. And if it works, it's almost certainly immediately game over.

" I think your conclusions about a decrease in aggressiveness are off, based on nothing more than narratives overfitting sparse data."

There are no narratives here. Just data. FO's Aggressiveness Index is really nice in compensating for situations, but even in the raw data you can see it - from 2000-2010, on 4th and 2 inside opponent's 40, Belichick went for it 24/51 times. That's 47%, and it's psychotically high compared to the NFL baseline. From 2011-present, exact same situations, Belichick went for it 6/37 times. That's 16%, which is basically the NFL baseline.

Statistically, those two results are pretty incompatible, even with the data size. You're more than welcome to believe that it's due to situational differences in that small dataset, but given the fact that FO's Aggressiveness Index shows basically the same thing, that's not a great argument.

Interestingly, it's really manifesting in exactly *one* way: rushing attempts. Let me put it to you this way: on 4th and 2 inside the opponent's 40, from 2000-2010, Belichick ran the ball on 12/48 attempts - 25%. From 2010-present, he's run the ball on *zero* out of 40 attempts. Pass attempts were nearly identical: 7/40 and 9/48. There's a clear and obvious change in strategy over those two time periods. You're welcome to not think it's "lack of aggressiveness" or whatever, but that's just semantics to me.

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204 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by RickD // Dec 11, 2018 - 12:49pm

We're not talking percentage points. We're talking a couple orders of magnitude smaller than that.

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119 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by SandyRiver // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:28pm

And the chances of completing that 20-25 yard sideline pass against a team defending the sidelines is probably less than 10%. The chances of gaining 55-60 yards and OOB, so to have a somewhat reasonable chance for a game-winning FG is far, far lower.
20-20 hindsight might've been a direct snap to (former QB) Edelman with max protect and just Gronk and Gordon going out. Then run around as long as possible - unless one of those two get open - and either throw it a yard or so over the head of one or, if outside the box, plain old throwaway. Or maybe even scramble for the TD.

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206 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by RickD // Dec 11, 2018 - 1:06pm

What is the threshold of likelihood here? The argument in favor of a different strategy needs to be based on "The probability of winning following my alternate suggestion is higher than the probability of converting one do-or-die play from the 31 yard line that required a TD." Which is itself at least 99.99%.

Long passes downfield to the sideline happen all the time. The Steelers did one Sunday.

Any argument about the low likelihood of converting a 60+ yard play that ends in the desired outcome has to concede that That's exactly what the Dolphins accomplished!. The entire last play took about 17 seconds, and Drake could have ducked out of bounds should that have been necessary (though, given the disposition of defenders, he could have kept running easily).

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215 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 11, 2018 - 1:53pm

"Any argument about the low likelihood of converting a 60+ yard play that ends in the desired outcome has to concede that That's exactly what the Dolphins accomplished!."

Which is why going for it is a good argument. It's the only one that has an outcome that isn't affected by that low likelihood.

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111 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Noah Arkadia // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:54pm

1 in 10000 is what it feels like, but in reality, the probability of returning a kickoff for a TD is, what, maybe 1 in 500 just by its lonesome at the absolute worst, without even considering the probability of a play going for a TD after that.

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140 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:07pm

Counting the 2nd quarter version of this, it looks to be closer to 1:132 odds. (6 in 792 drives)
http://pfref.com/tiny/Y1h9Q

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201512030det.htm#pbp_17...
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199910310nor.htm#pbp_16...
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200312210jax.htm#pbp_16...
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201011140jax.htm#pbp_16...
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201812090mia.htm#pbp_17...

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200711250crd.htm#pbp_87 (2nd quarter, short field)

Of the five, the Packers and the Saints conversions were longer/with less time, and the Houston one was nearly identical.

The Saints scored on a hook/ladder play. The Texans on a hail mary. The Packers did both. They got an untimed down after a defensive penalty on the hook/ladder and scored on the hail mary. Both Hail Mary conversions used a shorter initial pass play to set up the bomb. Neither team had a TO remaining when they started the short pass play.

No one has converted the 'kneel it' version, but there's only been 15 attempts.
http://pfref.com/tiny/n0f0f

If you move it out a little to "inside own red zone", two teams have gotten to the point of attempting a FG and Chicago actually pulled it off.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201212020chi.htm#pbp_15...
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201411160car.htm#pbp_18...

This one would be 1:42 odds.
http://pfref.com/tiny/pIcw4

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152 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:28pm

Chicago had 2 timeouts remaining. Carolina's a better comparison, but even in that case, 22 seconds is a lot more than 15, considering each play takes about 7 seconds in the Carolina case. And they were 10 yards closer - which is a big deal since even they only ended up trying a *63* yard field goal.

In any case 6 in 792 is entirely consistent with 1 in 42 given counting statistics, which implies that going for it (which has the 'immediate win' scenario built in) is the right call.

Being more extreme, starting drives inside the 10, there have been 13 drives in that situation in your list. Not one of them made it to the opponent's side of the field. The longest one was a 33 yard gain... starting with 18 seconds left, at their own 3, the Steelers managed 33 yards: a single play which ended the game.

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161 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:55pm

I don't regard a scenario with 13 prior examples in 20 years of data as being representative of its odds being better or worse than a 1:132 chance in a scenario that only crops up about twice a week.

This seems to be the first time a team with a lead in a similar game state as the Pats were in ended up losing.
http://pfref.com/tiny/y0795

But it doesn't crop up all that often.

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165 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:11pm

"I don't regard a scenario with 13 prior examples in 20 years of data as being representative of its odds being better or worse than a 1:132 chance in a scenario that only crops up about twice a week."

I didn't say that - I meant the *extended* case, inside your own red zone, where it was 1-for-42. That's completely consistent with a 6-for-792 example. They're both basically exactly the same statistically - there's no evidence that one is more likely to convert than the other. In this exact situation - where the team's inside their own *10 yard line*, it's obviously going to be significantly worse than that. In the 13 cases, no team even managed to gain yardage on 2 plays at all.

That's kindof the point - you need "miracle squared" for the "5 point lead vs 2 point lead" to make a difference with that distance to go and that little time left. It's a completely negligible effect. So once you remove that, it's obvious that going for it on 4th down is the right situation.

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174 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:42pm

I don't think any of the available evidence supports an "obvious" choice.

Recall that in a similar scenario at the end of the 1st half, the play ended in a sack!

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175 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:53pm

Both going for it and failing and them starting the drive at the 25-ish now down 5 have essentially the same success rate. Going for it adds the kickoff return, and removes the possibility of scoring on the 4th down play. I don't see how that's not obvious.

"Recall that in a similar scenario at the end of the 1st half, the play ended in a sack!"

You don't change your decision-making process based on a bad result. Bad results are going to happen.

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185 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 6:01pm

The sack was pointed out not because it directs future play-calling, but to point out that your assumption that going for it on 4th results in no worse than Miami call at their own 4 with less time.

But you knew that.

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214 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 11, 2018 - 1:50pm

I didn't say going for it on 4th results in no worse than that situation. I said that going for it and failing as well as Miami having the ball after the kickoff have roughly the same success rate.

This is a big difference - obviously there are "bad" outcomes for going for it, but there are also "bad" outcomes for the kickoff, bad outcomes for the field goal, etc. They're rare enough that they're not the "likely" outcomes and they don't really affect the percentages.

It's worth pointing out that at the press conference, Belichick said he was thinking about making it a TD, not FG game, but you could make an argument the other way. From Belichick that's as much as a "yeah, I probably should've gone for it" as you'll ever hear.

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189 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by lenny65 // Dec 10, 2018 - 6:41pm

Gronk was all out of Tide Pods, obviously.

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16 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:21am

Maybe Darth is slippin' as he approaches his 7th decade. I didn't see it live, but when I saw the video, my first thought was "Why the hell do they have a guy who doesn't tackle for a living on the field in an obvious lateral-palooza situation?". Then to read of the misteps leading up to that debacle, well, I sure would not have seen that coming.

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88 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by RickD // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:09pm

Gronk can tackle. And he's fast enough to be on the field there. He executed his responsibility poorly, tripping on his feet because he, like everybody else, didn't take the threat seriously. But he can do that job.

And while the Monday morning QBs are all insisting that a Hail Mary wasn't an option, I've seen multiple QBs make throws that long. Tannehill is, in fact, well above average in his ability to throw deep passes. He may not be Rodgers or Wilson, but he can throw a deep ball.

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102 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:24pm

There is zero chance that Gronk is one of the top 11 tacklers on that team.

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169 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by PatsFan // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:28pm

Not to mention that Devin McCourty, who Gronk came in for, is way way faster than Gronk (especially this year).

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209 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by tuluse // Dec 11, 2018 - 1:30pm

Also Gronk tripped because of poor recognition. Maybe someone with experience watching the offense from that position would have reacted better.

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18 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by nlitwinetz // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:24am

I was thinking the same thing. When a FG is not in play, what's the difference between being up by 2 and being up by 5. You need to maximize your chances of stopping Miami from scoring a TD, not get an extra 3 points.

I understand why Gronk was out there, he takes the practice reps for the "last ditch" defensive formation.

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24 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:32am

Having a guy who doesn't tackle for a living, on the field when making a tackle is the primary goal, doesn't make any sense. How many attempted tackles does Gronk have in the last decade? Would you put a defensive tackle out on the field to execute a pass block?

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39 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Noah Arkadia // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:47am

It's like they got their strategies mixed up. If you are up by two, then yeah, you want to defend the Hail Mary. But if you're up by five, you know it's going to be a lateral feast.

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210 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by tuluse // Dec 11, 2018 - 1:31pm

Matt Nagy is intrigued by your idea

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26 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:34am

You can ask the Lions about that.

Both DPI and roughing the passer are in play on Hails Mary. A downfield DPI puts you in FG range for an untimed down.

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35 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:42am

Well, even if you're thinking along the lines of DPI, I'd argue that Gronk is much more likely to commit one than McCourty.

To take off your fastest defensive player, and one of your surest tackers, is beyond my comprehension.

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44 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Noah Arkadia // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:52am

Yeah, but the DPI scenario is the other one, where the Pats go for it on 4th down and are only up by two. In the up-by-five situation, Hail Mary is not an option. So why was Gronk in there?

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46 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:58am

I agree with you.

I believe the argument is that the Dolphins could have thrown a long pass to the Pats 25 or so, gotten a DPI, and gotten an untimed down to attempt another pass to the end zone.

However, Gronk shouldn't be on the field in any case. In this scenario, you want your sure tacklers on the field, let the receiver catch the ball and immediately tackle him.

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54 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Noah Arkadia // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:08pm

That had not occurred to me. Although that's basically two Hail Mary's, the bottom line is all the W scenarios were so unlikely, yet in none does putting Gronk back there seem like a good idea.

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47 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:01pm

Who did they take off?

I count 3 DL, 1 MLB, 5 DBs, and Gronk. One defender was never visible on the TV views. I presume this was a DB, because he's probably on the wide man on the offense left.

So this is dime, with Gronk replacing either a DL or a LB. If you consider Gronk a LB, this is a 3-2-6. That's pretty standard for Hail Mary defense.

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50 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:02pm

Devin McCourty, aka the fastest man timed in an NFL game thus far this year.

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53 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:07pm

Maybe he confused him with Malcolm Butler?

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73 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:50pm

Ok, that's funny....

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93 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by RickD // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:13pm

DMac should have been out there. I'd have pulled somebody else. Alternatively the Pats could have used Gordon or Patterson instead of Gronk.

I'm hard-pressed to think who could have stopped Kenyon Drake at that point anyway. It's not a situation where a 1-on-1 tackle is likely, no matter who the defender is. Drake is very fast.

Ultimately the Dolphins took the play seriously, executed a good plan well, and scored. The Pats thought the game was over, lollygagged, jogged, took bad angles, and failed to "play 60 minutes". So they lost.

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160 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by mehllageman56 // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:55pm

Hopefully McCourty is giving the coaches some grief today. He's been too good for the Pats for that long to not have him on the field in that situation. I think Belichick is starting to lose his edge, but he makes mistakes like this once every two months or so. I only have to go back a week to find several strategic mistakes by Todd Bowles and Mike McCarthy.

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59 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:24pm

Roughing the passer doesn't work - well, unless they complete it *and* get the roughing call. It only gives you 15 yards, and from the 6, that doesn't do anything.

And you wouldn't try to prevent the Hail Mary completion if they need a field goal. You just tackle the guy after he catches it, game over.

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81 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by RickD // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:01pm

If you're calling Belichick a "moron" at this stage you might want to rethink your ability to judge intelligence.

Belichick decided that the value of having three extra points on the board was worth it. Also you (and others) seem to have simply vanished the kickoff. The Dolphins had two plays, not one.

If you saw how the kickoff was executed, it's clear that Belichick took a good step to account for any danger in a kickoff return. The rolling kickoff sacrificed a small amount of field position to (a) burn some clock, and (b) minimize the risk of any TD return.

If you're too afraid of kickoff returns to "risk" putting points on the board, you've trapped your thinking in an unwinnable position.

You may disagree with Belichick's judgment. But it feels like we're long past the point where a coach should be called a "moron" for putting points on the board.

The defense should have easily stopped the hook-and-lateral. At least five players had to make egregious errors for that play to work. But that's exactly what happened.

Given what happened on a play from the 31-yard line, it's baffling to see somebody arguing that the defense would have done a better job, had they had an extra 25 yards to defend. The problem wasn't that they didn't have enough territory to defend.

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86 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by BritPop // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:07pm

A time-consuming roll out pass play on 4th down ends in either a game-icing TD or defensive penalty, or gives the Dolphins one play from the 5 with no timeouts. A penalty on the hail mary wouldn't even get them to midfield.

Also, a "hold everybody" play kills the game too.

What Belichick did was clearly a mistake.

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98 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:16pm

I'm really surprised that "hold everybody" hasn't become a regular thing, forcing a rules change.

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103 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Travis // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:25pm

John Harbaugh having the Ravens "hold everybody" did force a rules change before the 2017 season.

Rule 12-3-3: INTENTIONAL FOULS TO MANIPULATE GAME CLOCK. A team may not commit multiple fouls during the same down in an attempt to manipulate the game clock.
Penalty: For multiple fouls to run off time from the game clock: Loss of 15 yards, and the game clock will be reset to where it was at the snap. After the penalty is enforced, the game clock will start on the next snap.

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104 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:28pm

Well, there ya' go.

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100 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:20pm

25 seconds is a long scramble.

This was a 14-second play and it felt like it took forever. Brady isn't this fast.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/philadelphia-eagles/0ap2000000148683/McNabb-s-...

Remember, if you give ground and then toss it away, a grounding penalty is a spot foul and loss of down. Miami would only need a FG. So you can't high-tail it for your own goal line. As for just tackling all the defenders, I wouldn't want to risk incurring a palpably-unfair act penalty.

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105 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by BritPop // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:30pm

20 seconds, and if that was the play call it would be Josh Gordon or James White on a direct snap with 10 guys holding...

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107 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by BritPop // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:33pm

Ah, they changed the holding rule...which is a good thing i guess...doesn't change the fact that they should have just gone for the TD on 4th down

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112 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:05pm

Well yes...if they had an extra 25 yards to defend, a Patriot was more likely to catch Drake or run him OOB. But that's not really the point.

The Patriots' last third down play started with 1:05 on the clock. Michel carried the ball to the 4 yard line. Belichick called time out with 21 seconds on the clock. The Dolphins started the fateful play from their 31 with 7 seconds on the clock. So the field goal and ensuing kick off and return took 14 seconds of game time. If the Patriots ran a play on fourth down, the most likely options would be:

a) touchdown (game over)
b) short run or completion short of goal line (Miami gets ball somewhere around the 2 yard line with, at most, 16 seconds left)
c) incomplete pass (Miami gets ball on 4 yard line with, at most, 18 seconds left)

Yes, there are scenarios with interceptions and fumbles involved, but we'll assume the play call would minimize those chances...and even in the event of a turnover, the resulting scenario would most likely resemble b), but with less time remaining.

Hell, a missed field goal gives Miami 1st and goal from the 11 with no more than 15 seconds on the clock.

So Gost kicks the field goal. Right now, the scenario I fear the most is a return TD, so I would have directed Gost to kick the ball through the end zone. However, I think that pooching the kick to trade another 8 seconds or so for 10 yards is a defensible strategy.

Barring an unlikely pass interference penalty, the Field Goal is not a realistic option in any case.

I'm as big a Belichick fan/defender as anybody not related to him, and clearly I meant to use the word "moron" or "moronic" to refer to the decision, not him. But what I think you're missing in your analysis is the very real chance the Patriots score the touchdown, icing the game. Even if they fail, I think backing up Miami inside their five yard line is a much better play than letting them take over on their 31 (and that was unknown...they could've easily returned the ball another 10 or 15 yards), even with the extra 10 seconds or so. I don't even think it's reasonable to argue otherwise.

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143 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:13pm

The real risk of going for the FG is for a blocked FG return.

Even a TD doesn't clinch. You need the conversion.

Otherwise a TD + 2pt conversion ties.

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147 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:21pm

Agree all around. I mentioned that in the other post.

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153 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by mrt1212 // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:30pm

Also calling someone a moron despite their body of work and specifically because of a fringe game situation...

Like, generally people look foolish for not anticipating things they maybe should have but...if we are writing the tome on BB this doesnt even make a footnote.

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106 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by facw // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:30pm

The Washington Post had an article saying the same thing this morning. It talks about Gronk, and about having Van Noy spy instead of pressuring or covering, but the claim is that the big mistake was not trying for the TD:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/12/09/miami-miracle-happened-...

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124 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by johonny // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:34pm

The odds Miami pulls off said play is very, very low. That said, it was a designed play and Ted Larsen's block down field was a nice spring. Obviously this play will give second thoughts to coaches pulling DBs for skill offensive players on final plays. When Miami's drafting a few slots lower come April this victory will feel less sweet :)

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129 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:43pm

Putting an offensive player on the field when winning the fight for the ball is of utmost importance is very different from doing so when making a tackle is of utmost importance. I think the Patriots coaching staff just brainlocked. It happens, even to the best of them.

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150 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:25pm

No doubt. They likely have a defensive last-play prevent package, but possibly not multiples tailored to what they're trying to prevent.

I have no idea why McCourty wouldn't be part of the prevent, but in this case, you've got to make that customization.

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221 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by PTORaven // Dec 12, 2018 - 1:50pm

Maybe I'm crazy but I'd like to see direct snap to a RB there and have the RB zig-zag and run *backwards* for 90 yards to eat that last 0:16. You'd have to practice the play of course, but if your offense knows what's happening and their defense has never seen anything like it before so you'll get a slight jump on them that way. Even if somehow someone gets close enough to tackle the RB with a few seconds left he just has to chuck the ball laterally inbounds and it's a fumble, so it'll take a few more seconds for someone to recover it. And even if the Dolphins do recover the fumble, it's still game over when the clock hits :00. maybe 16 seconds might be pushing it a little, maybe 12-14 seconds would be better (tough to tell without actually practicing the play), but i would love to see this happen just once before i die.

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224 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Dec 12, 2018 - 9:27pm

The game ends after the ball is dead. If Miami recovers that hypothetical fumble they can return it for a TD.

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229 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by PTORaven // Dec 16, 2018 - 1:01am

oh right.

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225 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by tuluse // Dec 12, 2018 - 10:01pm

This becomes a judgement call for the refs as the play is supposed to end when forward progress is stopped. If you're making no attempt to run forward, it's technically the same as sliding, giving yourself up, and ending the play.

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226 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 13, 2018 - 10:07am

I'd be amazed if you can get blocking that long without a holding call.

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6 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 10:52am

Dave Bernreuther: A friend and I have had a hunch all week that the Patriots are tired of hearing about this Miami schneid, and after watching how useless Kiko Alonso was last week, I had a hunch that the Pats would find a way to use that area of the field and put together another one of their statement wins. My company full of DFS touts didn't necessarily agree with me, so I'm just going to write this here to start off in case I'm right.

http://www.comedycentral.com.au/chappelles-show/videos/when-keeping-it-r...

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25 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Dave Bernreuther // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:33am

Heh. I'm still going to declare myself the victor on a technicality. The conversation was in context of DFS, so only the offensive stats, and not the results, matter.

(That said, the only reason I didn't bet on the Pats was that extra .5 on the line...)

Boy, talk about a new way of losing, though. 5 times in 6 years now definitely starts feeling a little like a curse.

(The video won't play on that link and now I am sad.)

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9 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 10:59am

That's a situation where you need to dive headfirst, but Michael David Smith linked to a story from August that the NFL is supposedly treating headfirst dives and slides the same as a player giving himself up this year. I can't say I've ever seen that mentioned or applied in any game I've watched this year.

It came up in the Saints-Vikings game, when Brees dove headfirst and fumbled, but the ball was spotted down where he landed. Note, this was an incorrect rules application regardless, because by rule he was down when he gave himself up (when he began to go to ground).

I would like to see a referee with the balls to rule a QB diving over the goalline down where he jumped, because I'm tired of QBs being Schrodinger's football player -- football players when it benefits the offense, but fragile china dolls wrapped in swaddling when it would benefit the defense. But then, I'd also like to see Montana.

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101 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Travis // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:21pm

A player sliding feet-first is down when he begins his slide; a player diving headfirst is down (in 2018) as soon as he hits the ground, but gets all the airborne distance from the dive. Basically, the diver no longer gets the advantage of skidding on the ground for extra yardage until he's touched.

A.R. 7.43 RUNNER SLIDES TO GIVE HIMSELF UP - FEET FIRST/SIDEWAYS/HEAD FIRST
Third-and-10 on A15. QB A1 scrambles out of the pocket and runs upfield. As he nears the A25 he sees that he is going to be tackled so he (a) slides feet first with the ball at the A23, (b) slides sideways with the ball at the 23 ½, or (c) dives headfirst and his right knee hits the ground with the ball at the B24 and he slides to the B25. In (a), (b) and (c), he is not contacted by a defender.
Rulings:
(a) Fourth-and-2 on A23.
(b) Fourth-and-1½ on A23½.
(c) Fourth-and-1 on A24.
Note: When a runner intentionally goes to the ground, he is afforded protection from defensive contact to his body, (if the slide was early enough), and always to the head and neck area. The ball is placed where it was when the runner’s first body part other than a hand or foot, hits the ground.

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123 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Joe Pancake // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:32pm

"I would like to see a referee with the balls to rule a QB diving over the goalline down..."

It seems to me diving for a touchdown is very different from giving yourself up, and the referee would be correct to rule as such. However, I do agree with your point about the QB double-standard. The play in (Chiefs?) game when the D-lineman let go of Brady and he ran for a TD is the prime example. You gotta call in the grasp on that. Yeah, it's an irritating call, but it's only fair given the protections afford the QB.

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176 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:56pm

I believe this happened to Jeff Driskel this very week.

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10 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:09am

Bryan Knowles: Josh Johnson's most recent NFL pass was 421 days before Colin Kaepernick played in the Super Bowl. At one point in the past five years, Johnson was Kaepernick's backup's backup. This is an embarrassment.

The 2013 49ers offensive line is better than the one the Redskins had to play this week. I don't mean in 2013 -- I mean today. Yes, I'm aware 3 of them are retired and the 4th is on IR.

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14 Re: Mahomes nicknames

by Megamanic // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:20am

I'm rather partial to "Pogue Mahomes" myself...

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11 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by OldFox // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:16am

You have no idea how weird it feels, as a Browns fan, to watch Baker Mayfield. It’s like, hey, there’s some guy in a Browns uniform who keeps throwing strikes. What the hell is this? Did they move today’s game to another channel and decide to show old Brian Sipe clips on this one?

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220 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by BJR // Dec 12, 2018 - 9:55am

Baker should be a lock for rookie of the year as far as I'm concerned. You only have to look at this year's other rookie QBs to realise how tough life can be for a young passer thrown onto a bad team. Objectively it's a truly impressive performance, even before considering the narrative of him breathing life into a previously woeful organization.

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15 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:20am

I have a hard time agreeing that he's better at running. They're just not defending it well just yet. Miami sort of tried to spy him, but they used Kiko Alonso's corpse. The Jets just left wide open swaths of field in front of him today.

Try not to let the color of his skin inform your assessment of his skills.

http://pfref.com/tiny/FJ8Aa

There's a lot of imperfect QBing on this list, but it's hard to argue any of those aren't legitimate runners.

The strange part is that this is a new development. Allen has 2/3rds as many rushing yards as a pro as he had at Wyoming. Although maybe his tendencies were hiding in plain sight.
http://www.cccaasports.org/sports/fball/2014-15/players/joshuaallen0oal?...
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/josh-allen/TKQp1vTvEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gender...

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33 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Dave Bernreuther // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:40am

Whoa. Hold up.

What about my comment about Alonso indicates racism? He's old, slow, and takes horrible lines. He shouldn't be on an NFL field anymore. If it makes you feel any better, I said the same thing for years about D'Qwell Jackson in Indianapolis.

If the racism implication was with regards to Allen, um... I'm confused. I said that I don't agree that Allen is a better runner than Michael Vick, and unless I'm dyslexic or something, that's a chart that agrees with what I said.

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56 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:19pm

I'm not criticizing Kiko Alonzo. He just got caught up in the line of discussion. Nor am I saying Josh Allen is a better runner than Michael Vick. I'm not saying he's a better runner than Randall Cunningham. I'm not even saying he's a better runner than Bobby Douglass -- although that's probably not a bad comp.

I read your paragraph as implying that Josh Allen can't actually run, and that his success at it this year is purely due to defensive inattention and will evaporate when defenses acknowledge that he's not made of stone. I don't think that's accurate. He may never be a good QB (Terrelle Pryor appears on that comp list, too) and most of these guys were sub-par passers during their peak running phase (maybe Wilson excepted), but I think he's every bit as legitimate a threat as a rusher as a Newton, Wilson, or Luck, or on the shitty side, the Bortles, Thomas, Hill, and Pryors of the world. You don't run for 335 yards in three weeks completely as a fluke. That about 80 yards better than Kaepernick's peak.

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69 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Dave Bernreuther // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:44pm

Oh, he can run. He's quite good at it. I just don't think that he'll persist as an otherworldly runner once defenses adjust a bit.

His success (as a runner) this year is him... the fact that he's not just successful, but has three games of 100 yards, still has a bit of defensive inattention/incompetence built in. I'd absolutely put him in the Bortles/Luck area as a runner. Newton too if they start calling deliberate real non-misdirection runs for him, which I think they will. (I still think Wilson and Mahomes get their own category, given just how routinely they can pull off the "WHAT ARE YOU THINKING, YOU'RE GOING STRAIGHT BACKWARDS YOU FOOL... oh, well alright then" plays. Then again, Allen did that last week too. The difference between those two and him of course are that their passes get a lot closer to their targets, whereas Allen's died ten yards in front of Clay.)

I do wonder if at some point the defenses will realize that pressure up the middle can be counterproductive, given that his first instinct is to take off, and possibly change the way they call their pass rushes.

Then again, his game-ending pick came when they flushed him out to his right via a blitz straight up the middle.

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76 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Cythammer // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:54pm

That play last week by Allen was a bad pass, but it was on the run, with no time to set his feet, throwing across his body far down field. Overall an excellent play when you factor in how much pressure there was from the pass rush. The failure was on Clay, not Allen. It should've been an easy adjustment for Clay, but he simply failed to track back and get in position to make the catch, despite their being no defenders anywhere near him. It was fourth down, but not goal to go, so he could've even come out of endzone entirely if he needed to. Even with the approach he took, he still should've caught it.

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117 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Mike B. In Va // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:20pm

Don't use logic when talking about Josh Allen. Even ridiculous throws are bad.

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186 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Dave Bernreuther // Dec 10, 2018 - 6:03pm

It wasn't a ridiculous throw, it was poor. He ran himself into and then out of trouble, set his feet, and this QB whose biggest (only) strength is supposed to be his arm underthrew a pass by ten yards. He knew where Clay was, and he barely got it to the goal line.

Clay should still have caught it, and I agree, I have no idea why he was in the back of the end zone.

Both can be true.

edit: I actually just saw the Allen quote about running around a ton and being pretty doggone tired. Which is definitely something worth noting that I hadn't thought of...

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197 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by mrt1212 // Dec 11, 2018 - 1:02am

I thought Bortles too where he has these head scratching highlights of him galloping 14 yards on a broken play and my intuition it is its the result of holistic offensive ineptitude combined with complete surprise of QBs like Bortles getting on the move without being accounted for initially at all.

The first part posits that a subset of QBs/offenses will net yards like this because broken plays are conditional of these runs developing and they lack the presence of mind to find a downfiels target or ability to execute in wilsonian or holmesian way and the second allows perhaps a higher net outcome.

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71 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Cythammer // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:46pm

I don't think underrating a white QB's running ability because white QBs are significantly less likely to be good runners would be racist, it would just be an error in judgment.

On the issue of Josh Allen's running, he actually now lead the Bills in rushing. This is rather incredible, for a couple reasons. First of all, because Allen has missed a few games this season. Secondly, because he has 'only' 490 yards on the season. 13 games into the season your top RB should be well past that, but LeSean McCoy has just 479. This also serves to make clear just how bad the offensive weapons are on this Bills team. Allen is bad himself, but he also has no one to help him either in the running or passing game.

This makes me wonder if a QB has ever lead his team in rushing for a whole season, which Allen now seems likely to do. I checked Michael Vick's best running season, but he was just a bit behind Warrick Dunn.

EDIT: Okay, both Bobby Douglass and Randall Cunningham did it, in the 1972 and 1990 seasons, respectively. Both actually had hundreds of yards more than the nearest RB.

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77 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:57pm

The likelihood depends on how you account it.

6 of the 14 most successful running QBs were white guys.
http://pfref.com/tiny/jhgLz

(would you believe Trubisky is on the list of 30+ y/g and 8+ games played?)

So you're as likely to see a white guy on the list as a black guy. You're much less likely to see a white guy runner as a function of white guy QBs than you are to see a black guy runner as a function of black guy QBs, because the list of statuesque black guy QBs is basically "Byron Leftwich". This strikes me as the same school of thought that refers to Adam Thielen as scrappy and high-awareness.

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128 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by jacobk // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:42pm

I believe the NFL approved style guide descriptor of Josh Allen is: "surprisingly athletic." They will also accept "deceptive athleticism" as the noun form.

Josh Allen is, of course, also valuable to the Bills because he is a hard hat and lunch pail kind of guy such that it's like having another coach on the field, one who is a gym rat, first to arrive at the practice facility and last to leave. He just loves football.

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144 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:15pm

He's like a kid out there.

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222 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by PTORaven // Dec 12, 2018 - 7:53pm

At the end of the day, it is what it is.

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223 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by PTORaven // Dec 12, 2018 - 7:53pm

At the end of the day, it is what it is.

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182 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by SandyRiver // Dec 10, 2018 - 5:34pm

Thanks for the link. I looked in vain for Tarkenton, then remembered that about 98% of his scrambling was behind the LOS, looking for an open receiver. I'm not sure anyone has been better than him at extending a play that way.

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116 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Mike B. In Va // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:18pm

Cunningham apparently did it several times, as well as Russell Wilson:

http://www.footballperspective.com/russell-wilson-will-be-the-5th-qb-sin...

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17 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Yu Narukami // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:21am

Can a team avoid to play the conversion?

MIA could still have got XP blocked and returned.
Or if they kneeldown, fumble.

Low propositions, but things happen.

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22 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dmstorm22 // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:31am

I don't believe so.

In this case, they just have to kneel, but yes, that minimal risk of a fumble cannot be avoided.

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32 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Yu Narukami // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:39am

So, why it wasn't played?

They had to call the players out for the last play of Saints-Vikings game.

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38 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dmstorm22 // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:45am

To be honest , didn't stick around so didn't realize it was not played.

Maybe they changed the rule?

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43 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:51am

I don't believe the point after is required to be attempted in that situation...i.e. a team scored a touchdown with no time on the clock and the extra point(s) wouldn't alter the outcome. In effect, the team is kneeling on the ball, without actually performing the ritual.

I say that I don't believe it's required, because this situation isn't that rare, and I've never seen the extra point attempted. So either it's not required, or the officials fail to enforce it.

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58 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dmstorm22 // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:23pm

So did some quick googling, looks like this was a rule change made this offseason.

As the previous poster had mentioned, it was definitely still a rule that the XP was needed last year given Minnesota had to take a knee after the Minneapolis Miracle.

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95 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by RickD // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:15pm

Yes, the rule was changed in the off-season. There was a playoff game last year involving the Saints that made it clear that 'forcing an XP try with no time left' is a silly rule.

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23 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:32am

Aaron Schatz: Apparently, according to ESPN Stats & Info, this is the first time all year -- and thus, the first time all-time -- this penalty was called against an offensive player.

There's no good way to track this on the penalty databases, but offensive spearing has been illegal for decades. It's just that most people don't know it existed because it's called less often than recovering a kickoff while lying out of bounds.

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27 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Noah Arkadia // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:36am

The Bears defense played so well that it caused the Rams to make mistakes they normally wouldn't make even when the Bears weren't making plays. I'm going ahead and describing that as "the Bears defense had momentum". That's what momentum is, right? Good play causing more good things to happen?

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31 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:39am

Unless it results in a championship, it'll not get the same level of attention, but the Khalil Mack trade is the mirror image of the infamous Herschall Walker trade. An obvious superstar who makes a huge difference in the opponents' ability to match up across the field, is given away for next to nothing. The only way I can explain it is that, A. The Raiders are owned by an idiot, and B., there were a limited number of teams that had cap flexibility to absorb a big contract, just before the season started.

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49 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by DrunkenOne // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:02pm

This comment makes no sense on multiple levels. How was either player given away for "next to nothing," especially Walker? Walker went for 3 1st and 3 2nds and is considered the worst trade in league history. Meanwhile Mack went for 2 firsts + a few other picks, still not "next to nothing," but obviously should have gone for far more.

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62 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:28pm

Um, perhaps your drunken state resulted in a reading comprehension problem. I didn't write that the two trades were identical. I wrote that they were mirror images. One was a player of limited utility traded for a trove of draft picks and established players. The other was a player of gigantic utility, traded for next to nothing. The reason I said it was next to nothing (admittedly a bit of hyperbole) is due to something you overlooked, which is the Bears are also getting the Raiders 2nd pick in 2020. There's a decent chance the Bears will win 10 games or more in 2020, and a decent chance the Raiders will lose 10 games or more, so the difference between the Bears 1st and the Raiders 2nd may amount to no more than 10 spots or less. We thus have young DPOY who creates gigantic match up problems for offensive coordinators, being traded for what is likely going to be a late 1st round pick in 2019, a minor swap of draft positions in 2020, and a 3rd rounder in 2020. Given the hit rate of late 1st round draft picks, and given how hard it us to get a player who makes the impact that Mack does, I'll stick with my minor hyperbole.

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63 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:28pm

This would have made more sense if you had said it was the reciprocal of the Walker trade.

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67 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:31pm

We will differ as to what is implied by the term "mirror image".

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78 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by BritPop // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:00pm

mirror image
noun [ C ] UK ​ /ˌmɪr.ər ˈɪm.ɪdʒ/ US ​ /ˌmɪr.ɚ ˈɪm.ɪdʒ/

something that looks exactly the same as another thing but with its left and right sides in opposite positions:

His home is two terraced houses knocked together, each the mirror image of the other.

a person or object that is very similar to another:

The current economic situation is a mirror image of the situation just a few years ago.

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83 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:04pm

They both look exactly like terrible trades, but in a precisely opposite manner.

O.K., we obviously need a 600 comment Irrational Semantics Thread!

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91 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:11pm

Fittingly, both Brady and Manning (and Montana!) have been part of similarly-unbalanced trades.

\Brees has not
\\Which is why he's not in the GOAT discussion.

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80 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by BritPop // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:00pm

think you were going for "polar opposite"

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90 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:10pm

That would be a trade involving Chicago.

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211 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by tuluse // Dec 11, 2018 - 1:40pm

You're thinking of Spock with a beard, that's mirror universe

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61 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:27pm

Will, respectfully, are you drunk?

The Walker trade was slanted towards the team that gave him up, not against it. Do you mean Dickerson? Or Moss. But with Moss, it's a repeat -- not a mirror image.

(Yeah, the Colts giving Faulk away was similarly unbalanced, but they Edgerrin James waiting in the wings)

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64 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:30pm

The term "mirror image" implies a reversal of position.

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79 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:00pm

Mirrors only reverse subjective directions. =)

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85 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:06pm

I can't stand you damned objectivists!

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89 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:10pm

You're through the looking glass now, Will!

\left is right!
\\up is... still up.
\\\This isn't working

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198 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Bobman // Dec 11, 2018 - 2:47am

I was kind of hoping that somebody in this thread would challenge somebody else to a duel, pistols at 20 paces. But of course, one would shoot at the mirror image of the other (aim for gun in his right hand but instead, hit the left one) while the other would shoot for the polar opposite (turn around and shoot AWAY from his opponent) and after all was said and done, they'd sit down over a couple beers and laugh about it.

Any old-timers here recall a guy who actually challenged people in FO discussions to fights in bars in like 2003 or 04? He was banned shortly thereafter, but can you imagine (A) expecting somebody to randomly show up at a place you designated several states away from home for a fistfight over football opinions? or worse, (B) actually showing up? Not sure which is dumber.

"Hey, barkeep, is there a fellow named BigMac32 here? Probably a loudmouth jerk. You know him? I'm supposed to fight him here at noon because... (insert Peytom Branning argument here)."

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199 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Bobman // Dec 11, 2018 - 2:54am

The Faulk trade was influenced by the Eric Dickerson situation a decade earlier and, as you note, Edge James (and Ricky Williams) in the coming draft and the Colts with the #4 pick, sure to get one of them. They were determined to NOT overpay for an "aging" RB no matter what Faulk's value and got two decent picks as compensation--one was a good LB for a few years and I can't recall the other. Had there been no top-flight RBs in the coming draft, it might have been quite different.

As a Colts fan I was astonished at the trade but it didn't take long to fall in love with Edge. I just wish they could have held on to his contract for one more season so he could have gotten his ring on the field (instead of a year later as a thank you, which was a pretty classy move). However, had they kept James, they may not have taken Addai, and James may not have shared the backfield well with Rhodes, which was one of their keys to winning it all that season--the two-headed backfield that didn't tire late in games.Together, those guys had an amazing super bowl that James never could have managed alone.

wow, I really digress here....

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114 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Eddo // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:14pm

I thought it was a good trade at the time, and a better one now, but Mack was traded for far from "next to nothing". The Bears did give up two first round picks. If they hadn't gotten back a second rounder in the deal, I'd have probably said it was breakeven at the time of the trade.

Of course, now it looks very lopsided towards the Bears, in part because it looks like in 2019, they'll be giving a pick 25th or later to the Raiders, while getting a pick 37th or earlier.

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121 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:30pm

Yeah, I would never say two first round picks is equal to a proven great, young, pass rusher. 1st round picks are worth more in theory than they are in practice, because drafting, even in the 1st round, is in good measure a random exercise. Once it was announced the Bears were getting a 2nd back, the larcenous nature of the trade was pretty obvious to me. Unlike the occasional MVP, the DPOY hardly ever goes to a guy who just was fortunate to be in the right situation, so to get one as young as Mack was just a tremendous outcome for the Bears.

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126 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Joe Pancake // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:40pm

The Bears also had to sign Mack to a monster deal to keep him past this year (without franchise tag). That has to be taken into consideration.

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133 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Steve in WI // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:54pm

Yeah, as much as the likely position of those draft picks devalues what Chicago had to give up (I read one estimate that if the Bears are as good as reasonably expected in the next 2 years, and the Raiders are as bad, it might essentially amount to a single mid-1st-round pick that the Bears gave up in the end), the fact that they had to immediately make Mack the highest paid defensive player in history mitigates that a bit. He has to be every bit as otherworldly as he's been this year to live up to that contract.

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135 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:56pm

Even the franchise tag wouldn't guarantee Mack would play for them, as the Steelers know. That's why I don't really understand people criticizing the Raiders for that trade. If they knew they couldn't sign Mack again pretty much no matter what, then it's a great trade for them, too.

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148 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:23pm

I'm not conversant in their cap situation, so I can't definitively state that they mismanaged their money, but if you're a team without a ton of talent, and you can't get a young DPOY signed to his 2nd contract, due to financial considerations it's highly likely you've botched something pretty badly.

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166 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Roch Bear // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:13pm

The Raiders may have decided (I think rightly) that their roster, even with Mack, was not a SB contender one. Might as well drop into tank-and-rebuild, particularly if you have a ten year guarantee.

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173 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:40pm

I don't think the Raiders *started out* that way - signing Jordy Nelson is more of a short-term gain thing, for instance. I think they *started out* thinking they could contend this year, but when Mack made it obvious 1) they wouldn't be able to keep him and 2) he really didn't want to play for them if they couldn't, I've got a feeling they basically just decided to sacrifice 2018.

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170 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Pat // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:29pm

I think you're forgetting that Chicago's got their QB on a rookie contract. That's like handing a team $20M/year in spare cap space, and for a long time. Teams like that can afford to overspend for great players.

And Mack's contract is really, really big. I don't really know how anyone can blame the Raiders for saying "that's too much." Chicago can take that risk, no problem, but I think if Oakland did, there'd be a *big* chance that it would completely explode in their faces and hamstring them for years. Mack's a great player, absolutely, but when he's asking for $25M/year or so, I think that's a really tough choice for a team to make, so I don't blame them either way.

I mean, it's not like "give a huge contract for great defender" has worked out all that well in recent years.

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177 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:57pm

Give a huge contract for any player contains significant risk, but ultimately it has to be done, unless you just get phenomenally lucky in successive drafts. Maybe the Raiders couldn't do any better, no matter when they shopped Mack, but if they didn't try to create a trade auction for him prior to August, that was a misstep.

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151 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:27pm

As I said, there's a good chance that the offers weren't bid up because so few teams had a cap situation to manage his new contract especially right before Week 1.

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181 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Roch Bear // Dec 10, 2018 - 5:32pm

That. And the Bear's offer looked better in August than it does now. Vegas was guessing the Bears were a 6 win team if I recall so their number 1 two years running looked good. Now? Yeah looking closer to a 'very high' 2

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184 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 5:52pm

I suspect, but do not know, that the Raiders didn't try to auction him much earlier in the year, when a bidding war might have broken out.

(edit) And I said I didn't like it for the Raiders, when it was reported as being two firsts for Khalil. When it was reported that the Bears were getting a 2nd back, I knew the Bears weren't competing against anybody. Raiders may have been better served by letting Mack sit out, then trading him next March.

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36 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:43am

Somehow Bradley Sowell is only the 3rd heaviest player to record a receiving TD this year (Dion Dawkins, Alejandro Villanueva) and the 2nd heaviest Bears to score an offensive TD this month.

Hicks is the heaviest player to ever score an offensive TD.

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37 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:44am

Aaron Schatz: Seriously, there was not a single wide receiver, tight end, or running back on the field for that play. Six offensive linemen, four defensive linemen, and a quarterback. That was wild.

Tom Gower: Technical question: how are we describing that personnel package?

Is "5X" too obvious?

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162 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dbt // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:57pm

Apparently the play-call was "Santa's Sleigh".

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40 thoughts

by Raiderjoe // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:48am

putting gronkowski on final play of {ates-Dolphins gamne was weird because of potential for injruy,. guy is injured enough doing hisd regular stuff. putting him on defense to maybe have to tackle a guy was weird. onlty should have been on field in obvious Hail Mart situaiton where he can camp out in end zoen (figure Tannehill throwing to right side of end zone) amd bat down pass. short of that type of scneario, Gronkowski should not have been on field.

Did put on Twiutter last ngvith that thought Bears would beat rams bujt was not super confident.
saints and rams almost certainly going to get top NFC playoff seefs. going to be good dvisiional round matchups as think vikles, Seahawks, Cowboys, bears coudl all give good efforts.

Raiders beat Steelers. Knew that would happen. No surprise there,.

Broncs maybe done. losing to 49ers bad thign. that ends takl of broncos running table and going 10-6. still in playfof mix. might get in. probably will not.

j. allen run for a lot of yards again. Seems JHets under t. Bowles very bad at stopping running quartervbacks. would actually bet that of top 20 quarterback single game rushing tgotals vs Jets in hiostory, maybe 10 happened vs Bowles Jets.

Giants roughed up Squirrels. That tema totally shot after Alex Smith injury,. Eags have probs here and there with injuries. seems a lot ot overcome, priobably difference in some of these losses, although i usually say if quarterbacjk is healthy, you can't complain too much. can complain s ome but not too mcuh. So, no excuses Eags. team will have to retool here and there and be back in 2019. Raiders and Eagles two obviosu choices for playoffs ibn 2019 after missing in 2018.

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45 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by MadCat // Dec 10, 2018 - 11:52am

I don't get to see a lot of football due to the time difference but yesterday saw something that made my blood boil.

At the end of the first half a Jets player hit the Bills kicker after the play, really blindsided him, he took some time to get up and seemed hobbled after that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIVW2DdihyY

Hope he gets suspended, but knowing the NFL he may even not get fined.

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60 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by TomC // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:27pm

Aaron Schatz: Trubisky just airmailed another interception, over the head of his receiver and into the arms of John Johnson. What is going on that Trubisky keeps throwing too high?

That's been his most frequent failure mode all year. Even in his best games, he has at least one ridiculous-looking overthrow of an open receiver. Last night stood out because he did it more like three times, and two of them were picked. As a Bears fan, I am hoping this is a simple mechanics issue that he's slowly getting out of his game, but given how accurately he is capable of throwing the ball, it's really frustrating to watch.

Trubisky's struggles made the defensive performance that much more impressive. He kept giving the Rams the ball, and the Bears D kept taking it back or stonewalling them. It was a little like the "crown their asses" game, but against the best offense in the league. I have been watching the Bears since 1977, and as far as single-game performances against elite offenses go, that was one of the best I've ever seen.

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82 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Chip // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:01pm

And it always seems like Josh Bellamy is the intended target. I bet Bellamy has a higher ratio of INT than other WRs. He seems to run such sloppy routes and is a bit of a headcase. No idea why he’s gets any looks on OFF.

How does this DEF stack up vs the Lovie Smith squads? 2001 was memorable bc it was so unexpected (so that fits here) but the 2018 unit has to be on par with the 2005 and 2006 squads. Talent / playmakers at all levels with a fantastic DC.

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171 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Roch Bear // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:30pm

Your suggestion that Trubisky is simply throwing to a 'route' the WR isn't running makes sense ... or at least does to this optimist. That is a highly fixable error, perhaps as you suggest helped by benching Bellamy.

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131 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Steve in WI // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:49pm

Given that Trubisky's supposedly minor injury kept getting worse (originally it was reported that he was only held out of the Lions game because it was a short week and he would have been ready to go that Sunday), I think it's possible that despite what they're saying the shoulder isn't back to 100% yet. That, as well as rust from the time off plus his natural proclivity to occasionally airmail throws like that might be enough that this isn't too worrisome. I hope he looks a lot better against Green Bay, though, and I would definitely like to see him improve that part of his game in the next couple years.

If you'd have told me yesterday afternoon that Trubisky would finish with 110 yards and 3 INTs, my only question would have been: did the Rams deliver a historic beatdown, or was it a garden variety, turn-the-game-off-in-the-3rd-quarter kind of a game?

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136 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by danplatt17 // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:57pm

Ooh - I like this thread... best single-game performances by Bears' defenses. I'm sure Football Outsiders could easily look this up with their numbers. Off the top of my head, here's a few:

1985 49ers (Revenge Game from 1984 playoff game - stamped the Bears as the team to beat that year)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/198510130sfo.htm

1985 Cowboys (Danny White barely survives, when the Cowboys were still good)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/198511170dal.htm

1987 Giants (Bears were not happy with their disappointing 1986 finish, and took it out on Phil Simms)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/198709140chi.htm

2006 Season NFC Championship Game (even with the 88-yard Bush TD, I don't know how the Saints only managed 15 first downs with 375 yards of offense)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200701210chi.htm

Honestly, besides that Saints game, I can't think of too many Lovie games that had the feeling of the one last night. Those defenses were fantastic at bend-but-don't-break, but, generally, they didn't have a pass rush like they do now, or in the mid-80's heyday. The look on Goff's face (which I've seen on several QB's faces this year against the Bears) is of some fear, some confusion, and some pain. The Lovie defenses were better at gang tackling, and were incredibly consistent from week to week.

I'm psyched for the Bears - that was Roquan Smith's best game yet, and probably Leonard Floyd's too. If those two studs have turned a corner, this defense will be very scary in January.

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183 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by SandyRiver // Dec 10, 2018 - 5:41pm

Seeing 1985 twice and nothing from that season's PS made me wonder if only regular season games were considered, until the last game shown. The Bears shut out two good teams, then obliterated a slightly-above-average Pats crew that had finagled their way thru three PS games to get there. For me, that's the greatest defensive beatdown in SB history.

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188 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 6:28pm

Now this has me wondering; what is the greatest defensive road playoff performance since 1978? It's one thing to destroy a good offense in your own stadium, but what teams have put it on a good offense on the road in the playoffs? Ravens in Foxboro? Giants at Niners in January 1991?

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190 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Eddo // Dec 10, 2018 - 6:46pm

A quick P-F-R search, sorted by total yards allowed: http://pfref.com/tiny/3aqcB.

The 2005 Panthers shut out the Giants in the Meadowlands, 23-0, and allowed only 132 total yards. That's the lowest allowed by a road team in the playoffs since 1978.

Three more Vikings games in the top ten for you, Will. Only two are losses!

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191 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 7:04pm

Bastard! The Blair Walsh gag job was a bad one, although no real Vikings fan gets too overwrought about a mere wild card loss; it's gotta be a bit deeper to really sting!

Those two Vikings losses were by teams without good offenses. I didn't remember that 2005 Giants team as being good on offense, but they were #9 by DVOA, so not bad. That 2010 Patriots offense was #1 by DVOA, so that Ravens defense did something really good.

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193 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 7:35pm

I'd forgotten about what a weird game that divisional contest between the Packers and Niners, in January 1997, was. Packers get out 21-0 on two long punt returns and an int return, Steve Young gets hurt, and the Packers win by 21 without doing hardly anything on offense, in Lambeau. And Seifert gets fired as a result!

It doesn't appear on this list, just a bit outside the parameters, but the Parcells and Belichik crew that held the Montana and Rice bunch (#5 by DVOA) to 13 points and 240 yards, in the NFCCG in January 1991, in San Francisco, did something pretty impressive.

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194 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Eddo // Dec 10, 2018 - 8:59pm

The NYG-SF game is there, #38 on the list, and very impressive indeed.

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195 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by BJR // Dec 10, 2018 - 9:14pm

I instinctively thought of Steelers @ Colts in 2005, given the all-time nature of that Colts offense, playing in their dome. But looking at the box score, the Colts' raw offensive numbers for the game are pretty solid, so maybe I'm mis-remembering how good of a defensive effort it was. Sacking Manning 5 times is still a pretty monumental effort. Wonder what DVOA has to say about it?

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200 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Bobman // Dec 11, 2018 - 3:16am

Yeah, Manning was harassed all game, but there were other quirks I recall that may not show up in box score. The Colts started one drive early in the game on their own 4. Even that Colts team against the #6 seed Steelers should find that a tall order, but they proceeded to pull off one of the best drives of the season and score a TD. Except on the short TD run LT Tarik "5 yards" Glenn was flagged offsides and that set them back to the 9 or so, and they settled for a FG.

They really were not the same after that--the final score was way below their season average or even their score vs Pitt from a month before. On that early drive it seemed they could literally do anything they wanted to the Steelers and were content gobbling up the field in mechanical chunks (not relying on high risk/reward bombs, trick plays, etc) The game ended up being decided by three points--and they left four on the field on that one early drive alone.

Tarik Glenn was an excellent LT in an era of otherworldly LTs (J Ogden, O Pace, and W Jones), so you take the bad with the good, but he was "good" for about 15 false starts a year. Kept Manning clean, though, and Edge running.

Another item that did not show up in the box score: Nick Harper, the CB who recovered Bettis's late fumble and was "destined" to return it 99 yards but was tackled by a backpedaling Roethlisberger was stabbed in the leg the night before by his wife. Hard to say what effect it had on the outcome, but I am pretty sure a CB without a fresh leg wound is expected to outrun a backpedaling mountain of QB 10 times out of 10. And then rather than trying for ten more yards and a tying FG, Manning really pressed on the deep passes, which went incomplete, forcing a longer FG for a kicker who was money in the regular season, but had a history (albeit a tiny one--Miami in 2001) of shanking playoff kicks in OT.

Finally, the coach's son committing suicide two weeks before and the whole team going to the funeral probably had some negative consequences mentally and emotionally for the team.

Okay one more: Troy Polamalu had a legit INT overturned, which helped Indy and hurt Pitt, so there's that.

Maybe the best outcome was Indy cutting Vanderjagt and signing Vinatieri afterwards.

Oh, and BTW, did you know Jerome Bettis was from Detroit? You may have missed it in the super bowl week media coverage....

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201 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Bobman // Dec 11, 2018 - 3:21am

DanPlatt17,
I had a college roommate by that name who liked the Cubs. Are there two Dan Platts rooting for Chicago teams? Probably.
WINA class of 87?
If so, all I have to say to you is, Super Bowl XLI.
If not, my apologies.
-Bob

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203 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by danplatt17 // Dec 11, 2018 - 12:12pm

That ain't me, Bob. There's another Chicago Platt out there. I think another person who commented below mentioned that last night's game was the most excited he'd been about the Bears since the opening kickoff of Super Bowl 41. I would probably agree.

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213 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by tuluse // Dec 11, 2018 - 1:47pm

The 2005 regular season game against the Panthers when Steve Smith was unstoppable all season except for that game (including Urlacher catching him from behind).

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218 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dmstorm22 // Dec 11, 2018 - 2:29pm

To be fair, he paid them back and then some in the playoffs.

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65 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by D // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:30pm

Trubisky just airmailed another interception, over the head of his receiver and into the arms of John Johnson. What is going on that Trubisky keeps throwing too high?

Trubisky has been doing that all season. I remember after the Miami game (where his overall numbers were actually very good) I joked in the Audibles comments section that if the Bears' receivers were all 10 feet tall Trubisky would be the best QB in the NFL.

For whatever reason, he just seems to constantly aim at an invisible target 3 feet over his receivers' heads.

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68 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by SandyRiver // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:33pm

Obviously that end-of-half sack was the worst possible thing for the Pats, but "unable to spike" forgets that the sack occurred on 3rd down.
I also thought that going for it on 4th rather than kicking the Figgie was a better choice, but getting 95 yards in 16 seconds is probably not much worse odds than getting 69 yards in 8 seconds. And though this Pats fan hated the result, it was still the best rugby play I've seen in an NFL game. Those laterals were perfect, hitting the guys right in stride. Miami must have spent some significant time on this play, and as usual saved the tricks for the Pats in FL.

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70 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Noah Arkadia // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:44pm

Apparently Gase was mad at Parker for pitching it to Drake, as he was supposed to run it in himself, so the execution was a bit improvised. But yeah, the laterals were rugby-worthy.

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178 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:58pm

Deadspin reports that the play was specifically designed to allow for more or fewer pitches

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72 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 12:47pm

Eli Manning and late season games in Miami are the betes noires for the otherwise sublime lives of Patriots fans! We unfortunate souls who dwell in the various Football Fandom Circles of Hell must take pleasure where we can!! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA!

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94 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:14pm

I have visions of a reality where Eli ended up in Miami, going 80-140 for his career, but 13-3 against the Patriots, with a bunch of irrational 40-6 victories.

There's another reality where Eli is traded every week to the team playing New England.

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99 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:18pm

Thus becoming widely thought of as the GOAT!

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192 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by jonsilver // Dec 10, 2018 - 7:10pm

+3

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87 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:09pm

I would argue this was a worse thing.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/seattle-seahawks/0ap2000000262383/Titans-defen...

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115 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by SandyRiver // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:17pm

Okay, a strip-sack returned for a TD would've been worse, so call it 2nd worst.

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130 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Joe Pancake // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:48pm

Good pull, but the only reason that happened is because the Seahawks kicker (Steven Hauschka) got hurt, so they had their holder/punter (Jon Ryan) line up as the kicker, and some nth-string safety (Chris Maragos) hold, even though he had never before held in an NFL game -- or even really practiced it.

That's a very specific set of circumstances that didn't apply in the New England game.

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196 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 10:35pm

Wilson just about threw a pick-6 in the same situation just now.

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97 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:16pm

“This one has been really ugly in just about every way so far...”
-Dave Bernreuther re: Lions vs Cardinals

That’s probably understating it. I’ve never seen a more unimpressive and discouraging two touchdown victory in my entire life. In fact, I was more impressed by how Lions played when they lost to the Rams by two touchdowns the week before. This Cardinals team is horrifically bad. How in the world did they beat the Packers last week?

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108 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 1:34pm

Poor coaching?

The 1972 Pats went 3-11, and one of their wins was against the NFC champ Redskins.

The 1991 Colts one win was against a Jets team that made the playoffs.

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113 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:13pm

In their most recent 2-14 season, the Patriots two victories were vs. the Bills and Oilers....who naturally faced off in the AFCC game that year.

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132 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Dales // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:54pm

My favorite is the 1-15 1989 Cowboys only win being against the 10-6 Redskins, who needed to go 11-5 to make the playoffs. At least, if I am remembering right, they would have gotten in on tiebreakers.

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120 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by TomC // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:30pm

Some significant fraction of the team was trying to get their coach fired ASAP?

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142 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by big10freak // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:12pm

I don't think there was a significant fraction as McCarthy received not one but two standing ovations when he addressed the team after being fired. There are now a LOT of people around the team including major beat writers who strongly suspect that Rodgers played just well enough to not come across as openly tanking but not well enough to win.

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154 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dryheat // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:34pm

I don't think it's inconsistent to want your coach dismissed while also appreciating his past service.

I would be shocked, however, if Rodgers was intentionally playing sub-optimally to achieve that end.

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156 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by big10freak // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:43pm

Given that I have surmised this very scenario weeks back I am not going to back away now.

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187 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by dank067 // Dec 10, 2018 - 6:23pm

Especially since Rodgers is the 5th-most sacked QB in the league. While playing all season on an injured knee he suffered while being sacked. Oh, and he took 9 sacks in the pivotal Seattle and Minnesota games that pretty much erased all hope for the season. If putting himself in harms way *while already hurt* was part of a master plan to get McCarthy fired, that would be quite the scheme.

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134 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by MaineRaider // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:54pm

Amari Cooper has been on fire lately. In the last 6 games he has 40 catches for 6 touchdowns and 642 yards.Gruden 2.0 has been an astounding success. GO RAIDERS!

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159 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Cythammer // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:53pm

Cooper was terrible last year, before Gruden came. Also, getting a first rounder for him is still a great deal for the Raiders.

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137 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Steve in WI // Dec 10, 2018 - 2:59pm

I am still absolutely giddy over the Bears game last night. I don't think I've been this excited about the Bears since the opening kickoff of Super Bowl XLI. They not only proved that they can be competitive with one of the consensus best teams in the league, but they absolutely dominated them on defense in a game where their own QB was awful. And unlike so many Bears teams I watched in the 2000s, there's reason for optimism that there won't be too many games where the defense has to singlehandedly take over. Last night notwithstanding, I still like a lot of what I see with Trubisky and I expect him to get better next year and the year after that.

As for this year, I'm not predicting that they *will* go far in the playoffs, but after last night I don't think it would be absurd if they won the Super Bowl. And less than a year ago they still hadn't fired John Fox! I know turnarounds happen fast in the NFL, but I didn't think it could happen this fast.

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138 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by mrt1212 // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:04pm

Nagy and McVay have both created an insatiable appetite for younger HCs in me.

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146 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:21pm

Hue Jackson is available.

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217 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by mathesond // Dec 11, 2018 - 2:24pm

So is John DeFilippo.

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145 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by danplatt17 // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:17pm

I'm excited, too. I think they may have done themselves a favor last night with playoff positioning, as well. If the playoff seeds stay as they are now (a big if), you could have the Bears at Rams and the Cowboys/Seahawks at Saints. I'm sure the next time the Bears play the Rams, they won't hold them to 6 points, but I'd still much rather take that path than go against the rested Saints in New Orleans. And, if I were to pick the two NFC teams with the best chances to beat New Orleans in New Orleans, it would probably be the Seahawks (veteran QB + coach) or the Cowboys (because they just did it). Honestly, after the game last night, I don't see Goff or Trubisky beating the Saints in the Superdome. The Bears could beat the Rams in LA, and pray for an upset in New Orleans, then get another home game for the NFC Championship Game. My confidence level of this entire scenario playing out is about 5-10%, but there's a path!

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149 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:24pm

If you think Brees tank is starting to sputter, though, the Saints become a lot more mortal.

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158 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by danplatt17 // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:49pm

He looked pretty bad against Dallas, but I didn't see any of the game against Tampa. Did he look bad against them, too?

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172 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:39pm

He looked okay.

Which against Tampa's defense makes you high school-quality.

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179 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:59pm

I thought Brees looked fine against Dallad, just his receivers didn't, lots of dropped on-target passes.

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167 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Cythammer // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:14pm

"And, if I were to pick the two NFC teams with the best chances to beat New Orleans in New Orleans, it would probably be the Seahawks (veteran QB + coach) or the Cowboys (because they just did it)."

Not sure if you actually meant to imply the Cowboys game was in New Orleans, but it was in Dallas.

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168 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by danplatt17 // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:17pm

I meant that the Cowboys just beat New Orleans. The Saints would be heavy favorites, regardless of location, but the Cowboys should have a little confidence based on recent history.

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180 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Will Allen // Dec 10, 2018 - 5:10pm

It's really interesting when a team that already has excellent talent on one side of the ball gets one more piece that gets them past the tipping point, in terms of other teams being able to match up. That's really what Mack has done for the Bears. Opposing offensive coordinators just can't scheme past whatever blocking problems exist, even with a statistically excellent offense like the Rams. For instance, the Rams center John Sullivan has his positive attributes, but he's always been prone to getting overpowered by powerful nosetackles, if he isn't given assistance. Having Mack out on the edge threatening chaos means less help for Sullivan, and Sullivan was just curbstomped last night.

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139 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by big10freak // Dec 10, 2018 - 3:07pm

As Green Bay now looks to ruin the chance for good draft position that Jones catch reviewed that was upheld as a catch was just weird.

Dean Blandino goes through in the clip on why this catch should have been reversed. Anyone have any ideas as to why that did not happen?

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/video/1393142339847

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164 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by mehllageman56 // Dec 10, 2018 - 4:05pm

Hoping Reggie McKenkie gets hired as the Jets GM. I would be fine with Joey Clinkscales, who was director of scouting in New York when they drafted Ferguson, Mangold, Revis and David Harris. He was also there when they drafted Vernon Gholston though. I think MacCagnan has done a poor job in the draft, and the latest article by Manish Mehta was basically sourced by MacCagnan to hang Todd Bowles out to dry as a scapegoat.

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202 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Theo // Dec 11, 2018 - 7:41am

So the Steelers had 2 timeouts when the Raiders completed a pass to the 6 yard line with about 50 seconds on the clock.
And Tomlin DID NOT call a time out? That has to be football time management 101 - the course Tomlin never took.
He was also defending a 4 point lead with a rookie QB, while your HOF QB is warming up on the bench? Why you ask? "Because of the rhythm and flow of the game" you know, all those magical drives that Dobbs was leading... resulting in punts, but who cares.
Did Tomlin prepare his team for this game well? We had a kick returner slip 2 2 times because the grass was poor and on the deciding kick... the kicker slips too.
But don't blame Tomlin - he has a winning record and makes the playoffs often. Makes him invulnerable versus criticism.

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208 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by LyleNM // Dec 11, 2018 - 1:23pm

So the Steelers had 2 timeouts when the Raiders completed a pass to the 6 yard line with about 50 seconds on the clock.
And Tomlin DID NOT call a time out? That has to be football time management 101 - the course Tomlin never took.

Belichick gets genius credit for doing the same thing in SB XLIX.

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227 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by Theo // Dec 13, 2018 - 12:10pm

Nit the same.
1:57 on the clock. He had two timeouts. The raiders one. Raiders having a time out meant they had rhe whole playbook. They let the clock run all the way to 1:27.
Then Tomlin calles TO after an incomplete pass.
Then with little time remaining Boswell misses the kick. And Tomlin still has a tine out at the end of the game.
There was no reason on earth not to save those 30 seconds.

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228 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by LyleNM // Dec 13, 2018 - 1:00pm

Actually it pretty much is the same. Seahawks had one TO (but not 1:57) so they couldn't just run the ball 3 times - they probably had to pass at least once. That's about the only difference. Once it got to be 1st and goal, either the Patriots would stop them and win the game or the Seahawks would score and the Patriots would need to save time to try to kick a tying FG. Belichick should have been the one calling TOs, not the Seahawks. Just like Tomlin should have been calling TOs.

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216 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by SlevinKelevra // Dec 11, 2018 - 2:21pm

didn't some wacko previously post here who called Tomlin an idiot every week?

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219 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 14

by PatsFan // Dec 11, 2018 - 3:23pm

FireOmarTomlin

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