Audibles at the Line

Unfiltered in-game observations by Football Outsiders staff

Audibles at the Line: Week 4

compiled by Andrew Potter

Each Sunday, the FO staff sends around emails about the games that each of us are watching. We share information about the games that the rest of the group might not be watching, ask questions, and keep everyone else informed about which games they might want to tune into (if they can).

On Monday, we compile a digest of those emails and produce this feature. By its nature, it can be disjointed and dissimilar to the other articles on the site.

While these emails are generally written with Audibles in mind, they do not represent a standard review of all the games each week. That means we aren't going to cover every game, or every important play. We watch the games that we, as fans, are interested in watching, so your favorite team's game might not be covered to your fullest desires or even at all. (If you are a Steelers or Patriots fan, you are probably in luck; if you are a Bills fan, not so much.) We have no intention of adding new authors solely to cover every game on a given Sunday, nor will we watch a different game from the ones that we're personally interested in watching just to ensure that Audibles covers every game.

Houston Texans 37 at Indianapolis Colts 34 (OT)

Bryan Knowles: The Colts marched right down the field on their first drive, with Luck finishing 5-for-5 for 68 yards on their way to the end zone. Nothing deep, as we continue the Luck Arm Strength Watch 2018, but short and efficient against a Texans defense which has yet to prove they can stop anyone through the air this season. The Texans will have a slightly easier time, however, if T.Y. Hilton stays out -- he went down after a 40-yard catch-and-run, immediately dropping the ball and clutching his shoulder. Even when the Colts DO get a big play -- the catch was the longest play of the Colts' season -- they can't have nice things.

So, that's Hilton out, along with Jack Doyle and Anthony Costanzo. If the Texans can't come back in this one, I question how many games they could possibly win this year.

The Colts, backed up in their end zone after an excellent punt from the Texans, just had a pretty embarrassing gaffe. The snap failed to reach Andrew Luck, and the Texans pounced on the ball in the end zone before the Colts could even touch it. You won't see an easier defensive touchdown in your life. Wow. Hey, take the points any way you can, I suppose.

Scott Kacsmar: I cannot believe an NFL center could have such a feeble snap with his quarterback standing in the end zone like the Colts just had. Did Ryan Kelly think Luck was under center? He should be able to feel that. For the ball to be that short of the quarterback is just absurd, and the Texans recovered the fumble for one of the easiest gift touchdowns you'll ever see. That could be huge on a day where I don't see the Colts scoring a lot with the injuries on offense.

Bryan Knowles: Will Fuller has caught a touchdown in every game he's played with Deshaun Watson, and he adds another one today. The five-play, 52-yard drive might be Houston's most impressive to date this season, which might be damning with faint praise, but hey. It's the closest we've gotten to the Texans offense that wowed us the first half of 2017, so it's worth pointing out.

A live look at Andrew Luck's arm:

Houston is finally beginning to look like the team we thought they would be at the beginning of the season, and it's not a moment too soon. J.J. Watt has two sacks in the first half alone, causing fumbles on both of them. I'm not sure a tackle alive can stop prime J.J. Watt alone, but we can definitely say that Denzelle Good won't be the one to do it. It's a 21-10 lead for Houston at the half -- far from over, but a much-needed boost of confidence for Texans fans so far today.

Who knows if it's going to be a one-week mirage or if it's a turning point, but the Texans look like an entirely different team today -- the team we thought they'd be to begin the season. Their drive to start the second half went 15 plays for 79 yards, capped off by a 5-yard Watson scamper into the red zone. It's his third score of the day; he's already over 200 yards passing and only has five incompletions on the day, making plays with his arm and his legs. It's the Watson we were promised last season. It's 28-10 Houston, and I think Texans fans can breathe a little easier. 1-3 isn't the end of the world; 0-4 pretty much would have been. Unless they absolutely fall apart here in the second half, they're looking good today.

Dave Bernreuther: A game that looked like a sure thing for the Moo Cows is very much in doubt, and I'll admit that I haven't really been watching before now. What I have noticed, though:

  • T.Y. Hilton isn't out of the game, but his hamstring is very obviously bothering him.
  • I am nominally still a Colts fan, but I don't think it's bias to call the Nuk Hopkins touchdown in the first half a blatant push-off.
  • Deshaun Watson doesn't look especially good.
  • Kudos to the refs for still throwing the flag on [unknown Houston returner] on a punt in which he let it bounce and raced up to block a Colt [also unknown; the TV is the smallest in the bar], who did nothing more than brace for impact but knocked him into next week. An impact like that is one where you'd actually understand a bad call, but they got it right. And we got a highlight reel hit.

OK that was cool. Arm strength and time off and two years of Pagano-induced conditioning made me forget that Andrew Luck is still pretty freaking amazing. And down eight, just like that, it's 2013 again and the Colts mount a potential game-tying drive after being down three scores. And a really well-designed dagger route to Nyheim Hines gets them in the end zone ahead of a quick release and short-range dart -- but importantly, a dart nonetheless -- to Chester Rogers for the two-pointer that ties it up. 28-28 in Indianapolis, and that is why we're all so much better off now that Andrew Luck is back.

I'm not going to lie, though. For all we've come to expect of Reich as a Pederson disciple, I'm not sold on his tactics. Kicking deep rather than short there, with 45 seconds left and the Texans lacking timeouts, strikes me as very obviously wrong. And just like that, Watson has time for one pass beyond midfield, and we see a last-ditch, Josh Scobee-like, 59-yard field goal attempt. Which seems pretty inexcusable. On the level of the last plays of Peyton's Colts career ... but Ka'imi Fairbairn pushes it wide right. And we will see overtime. For the second game this time slot.

Bryan Knowles: The prevent defense has once again only prevented a victory. The Texans, who at one point had a 28-10 lead, surrendered it all with some of the softest defense you will ever see in the fourth quarter. Both teams have now exchanged field goals in overtime, so we have just 1:50 left for someone to do something. We are looking straight at our third tie of the season, as the ten-minute overtime continues to be the worst of both worlds.

Dave Bernreuther: I don't fault Frank Reich for that fourth-down call at all. Punting is playing for the tie. As underdogs and down two games already, a tie is useless. A win is useful. Good for him, even though it didn't work out.

Aaron Schatz: I'm very interested to see the Game Winning Chance numbers on this but I would tend to disagree. It's early in the season, there's nothing wrong with playing for a tie and a 1-2-1 record. It's one thing if we're talking about going for it on fourth-and-4 on the opposing 40 or something. But this was his own 43. Also, there are only 27 seconds left. Even if the team converts the fourth-and-4, it's possible they run out of time before they can get the ball into field goal range, which means they're getting a tie anyway.

Bryan Knowles: I'm going to disagree here, Dave. With 24 seconds left, the ball on your side of midfield, facing a fourth-and-4, the Colts opt to go for it. They're stopped short, Watson and the Texans hit one pass, and Houston escapes with a game-winning field goal.

With 24 seconds left, a first down doesn't even get you into field goal range. I'll have to check the win percentages on this one, but it feels an awful lot like a lot of risk for very little gain.

Dave Bernreuther: I'm getting yelled at by drunk morons calling that the worst call in the history of football, so I'm only growing more resolute in my support of it.

That said, I'm eager to see the math on it. Because success didn't guarantee a victory. Nor did failure guarantee a loss (the defense on that slant was quite poor, and the icing the kicker proved to be a bad choice as well), but my initial thought is/was that 1-3-1 coming out of the Thursday game is not in any way useful in a division with two 3-1 teams, so you play to win the game.

That said, a friend pitched another scenario with some merit: the AFC is bad. A 9-7 record may get you in. Hell, 8-8 may get you in. And if you consider the Jags a reasonable 12-4 team, you aren't winning the division anyway. And a tie and a record of 9-6-1 might actually have a bunch of value over 9-7. So this becomes very interesting.

I'll admit that I'm also just plain fascinated by stuff like this. Because for all that we've been able to learn about and apply win probability added and all ... I don't know that we've seen a good example of "tie probability" added. And how to compute the value of a tie. This isn't the 1980s NHL. As far as I know nobody has really spent too much effort studying the up side of ties ... which means that I still love that call just because it starts the discussion.

I also still love it because I prefer aggression to conceding, and I maybe -- maybe -- like the message it sends to a roster lacking talent.

(Numbers-wise I'm liking it a lot less the more I think about it, though. But I'm far from hatred. And I'm VERY excited to see the studies it leads to. And pretty annoyed that Brian Burke isn't publishing to his own site anymore.)

Bryan Knowles: Burke HAS weighed in now over at ESPN, saying it was a -5.1% Win Probability decision. That's counting a tie as half a win, though -- which is true, you know, statistically, but some half-wins may be more valuable than others, especially in the division. That would be an interesting thing to look at at some point.

Aaron Schatz: Reich's response after the game was not about the probabilities at all. They simply decided they wanted to try for the win, not the tie.

Dave Bernreuther: When you're the type of team that'll have to scratch and claw to get to eight wins, I think I still lean toward rolling the dice at -5.1% WP and hoping for the best over near-guaranteeing the tie. But I'll hedge by saying that upon further consideration I disagree if this looked like a team(and season) for which I thought a division title was possible or likely.

It's still a nice change from Pagano, if nothing else. So good for him.

Tom Gower: I like to think I like to be as aggressive as anybody, but I agree with the models that suggest punting, especially with the head-to-head perspective against a team that's behind you in the standings. I know, they're behind in the greater cause of the division and the playoff spot, but it's hard for me to see enough chance of getting the win even with a successful conversion, which is less likely than not.

Aaron Schatz: Here's the official EdjSports write-up on how their Game Winning Chance model saw the decision:

The set of game variables (clock, field position, score) in this decision came together in a perfect storm, greatly magnifying the impact of this fourth down decision. Make no doubt about it, this was an aggressive call. Perhaps surprisingly, the simulation model from which we derive our usual aggressive fourth down stance actually disagreed with Coach Reich. The Edj model was in favor of punting the ball and estimated that the GWC (game winning chance) sacrificed by going for it was 3.5 percent. This conclusion was further supported by substituting a top passing offense and weak passing defense into the simulation. Even under that extreme scenario, the punt is still the top choice.

An important assumption that enters the model’s assessment is the value of a tie. The model values a tie as half a win. It’s important to note that Coach Reich is likely valuing a tie much differently than the model. He made this clear in his postgame press conference by declaring, “I’m not playing to tie.” To try to account for this difference in assumptions, we re-assessed this decision by assuming it occurred in the postseason when tie games are not an option. In this alternative scenario, the Colts would need to convert the fourth-and-4 approximately 81 percent of the time to justify the more aggressive approach. Historically, NFL teams would be expected to succeed closer to 50 percent. Again, we see the punt being favored.

To unpack this surprising finding a bit, the Colts’ field position played a significant role in this decision. At their own 43-yard line, the Colts were at an important threshold of the field. From their own side of midfield, they could expect to receive the maximum benefit from swinging field position with a punt. To hone in on this effect, we ran a sensitivity analysis by varying the yard-line where the Colts faced this fourth-and-4 decision, keeping all other game variables constant. We found that the “crossover” point or the yardline where the two decisions reached parity with one another in terms of GWC was the Indianapolis 48.

Miami Dolphins 7 at New England Patriots 38

Aaron Schatz: Chalk up another interception for the Dolphins, who lead the league this year. This time by Bobby McCain, who had good coverage on Phillip Dorsett on a third-and-9. Not sure what Tom Brady saw there; Dorsett was covered all the way. Dolphins haven't done much on offense so far -- one nice 22-yard pass to Kenny Stills and then a lot of short stuff that went nowhere. Patriots pass rush looking much stronger than in recent weeks, pressuring Tannehill in a few passes so far. It helps to get back the team's top pass-rusher, Trey Flowers. 3-0 Patriots near end of first quarter.

Vince Verhei: It didn't lead to anything, but I loved Miami's play in the first half when they faked a SHOVeLL, then handed off to a player on a jet sweep going the same direction behind him.

Zach Binney: Early in the second quarter and that's about the third or fourth massive overthrow by Tannehill. Not sure what's up, but he's looked a lot more accurate in the first three weeks. Miami is in trouble if he can't keep the offense chugging vertically.

Dave Bernreuther: Cordarrelle Patterson scored on what reminded me of a college play -- he was so wide open (after the same crosser/wheel combo the Broncos ran to take the Seahawks to overtime in that exciting post-Super Bowl rematch a few [5?? Man I'm old] years back) that it didn't matter that the ball was underthrown, and then he just outran and juked the defenders who were catching up to the play on the way to the end zone. I didn't see anything too illegal pick-y, so I'm a little curious as to just how Xavien Howard got beat so badly.

What really stands out to me so far, especially on the last few drives, is how slow Ryan Tannehill looks. Slow afoot, slow in decision-making, slow delivery, and floating footballs. I've never known him to be prone to any of these things, so it almost makes me wonder if I had something slipped into my coffee, but it has been very strange to watch. He has had the benefit of some decent defense (above mentioned play excepted), a turnover, and some drive-extending penalties, but so far the Miami offense -- and Tannehill especially, and literally -- appear to be stuck in mud.

Aaron Schatz: On the Patterson touchdown, Xavien Howard got beaten by a legal pick in the first yard after the line of scrimmage. He didn't really get beat, I think he was switching to cover the other receiver.

Howard does give up a touchdown near the end of the second quarter, in simple one-on-one coverage on Phillip Dorsett. Dorsett beats him just on technique, with what I think was a whip route. So we go into halftime 24-0. So much for the Dolphins ranking second in DVOA going into this week. They've fallen apart in pretty much every area of the game. The offense doesn't seem very creative, with a lot of second-and-long runs going nowhere to go with penalties and Tannehill's overthrown deep balls. The defense is giving up big holes in the running game. They seem a bit overwhelmed by the situation, with plays like a blown snap recovered by the Patriots and a frustrated unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Laremy Tunsil a couple of plays later.

Bryan Knowles: So, all those "The Patriots are dead!" obituaries? Maybe we'll hear just a little less noise from the blogodrome this week. I've been watching this one, waiting to say something interesting and insightful -- and no, it has just been a methodical crushing of Miami. It has not been that New England has been particularly explosive or dramatic; they've just been brutally efficient, marching up and down the field and preventing Miami from doing anything whatsover on offense. Adam Gase's play calling has not been spectacular, but the Dolphins also just aren't executing. Tannehill can't get anything going deep, with just 68 yards on eight completions at the half. His very first play of the game was a decently deep pass to Kenny Stills for 22 yards, and he has hit nothing longer the rest of the day. The Pats are getting pressure, and everything's just shut down. It's one of those boring dominating games, as opposed to the offensive explosion in Chicago, but the end result is the same.

A little bit of Florida football deflation today, I would say.

Aaron Schatz: Ran into Omar Kelly from the Sun-Sentinel at halftime. He blames Miami's faltering run defense heavily on the loss of William Hayes, who was their strongest run-stopping defensive end.

Cincinnati Bengals 37 at Atlanta Falcons 36

Rob Weintraub: Taking in this octennial visit south by Cincy in person. Usually goes badly for the Bengals in Atlanta. Sure enough, an easy Falcons touchdown on the opening drive. But Dalton answers with a touchdown pass to the dearly missed Tyler Eifert, and it's 7-7. Not so hard to believe is that the Bengals have screwed up two substitution patterns already, leading to burning two timeouts in the first quarter.

Long touchdown pass to ... John Ross!! He lives! Buuuut, not for much longer -- he pulls up lame in the end zone with an apparent groin injury. Typical.

21-14 Bengals in this predictably defense-free game. Last team with the ball wins.

Cincy scores just before halftime, but not "just" enough, as Atlanta gets into field-goal range and Matt Bryant of course hits it. 28-24 Bengals at the half. The "Pee Wee vs. Mascot" game at halftime had better defensive play.

Hard to tell from here but it appears Tyler Eifert just broke his leg in gruesome fashion. Unbelievable.

Bryan Knowles: Robert, be glad you're at the game and don't get to see that replay in high-def slow motion. That's one of the worst injuries I've seen in a while, and I really wish I hadn't.

Rob Weintraub: Predicted on Twitter the Bengals wouldn't score after that Eifert injury. So far, alas, I'm right. Didn't help that his replacement let a pass go right off his hands and bounce for an interception.

Falcons get a highly questionable roughing the passer call to negate a sack-fumble as well, then have their usual wide-open receiver for six. Two-pointer no good, 33-28 Falcons early fourth quarter.

Vince Verhei: Calvin Ridley gets an easy touchdown on a seam route to put Atlanta up 33-28 early in the fourth, and then things get interesting. They go for two and don't get it (a bubble screen with offensive pass interference that didn't get into the end zone anyway) and now lead by just five. I know it's a shootout and that seven-point lead looks tempting, but by going for two and not getting it, they leave themselves open to getting beat by two field goals. Seems like they got greedy to me, though that is with benefit of hindsight.

Bryan Knowles: Andy Dalton just walked right into an ugly strip-sack in the red zone, with Takk McKinley seeing no resistance on his way to the quarterback. I think Dalton's knee was down, but we're in a review, and it's gonna be close. This is the kind of game where one defensive play might just be enough to win it.

Dave Bernreuther: Just as Rob mentions the Bengals scoring, Dalton throws one low and inside to a completely and thoroughly covered A.J. Green in the end zone. He's A.J. Green, though, so somehow he reaches around the defender to catch it at waist level for the score...

Only for it to come back on a hands to the face penalty (?) where it looked, at worst, like a perfectly normal block led to a finger slipping and maybe briefly grazing the facemask of the rusher. I don't have the benefit of a DVR here, but wow. That looked like one where they should've kept the flags in their pockets.

Rob Weintraub: A.J. Green with a great touchdown catch, but of course wiped out by penalty. A few plays later, third-and-goal, McKinley goes around Bobby Hart for the strip-sack. But replay shows Dalton was down (I guess -- poor replays and audio in here). So Cincy gets a short field goal to close to 33-31. Eight minutes left and to say I'm not optimistic the Bengals get a stop here is an understatement.

Miraculously, Cincy held the Falcons to just three. Down five with four and change left. Lewis called timeout twice to preserve clock on that drive so all or nothing now. I don't have to tell you my prediction. Blocking has been atrocious this half.

Dave Bernreuther: Wow is about all I have to say about that. And I can't help but note the difference between the Bengals' productive use of A.J. Green vs. Sarkisian's use of a similar talent in Julio Jones.

Rob Weintraub: !!!!!!!

Trust me, Cincy can still lose this ... But they don't!!! Incredible, mainly because Cincy seldom wins in my presence. Key to the game was my not recording the local telecast -- that always works out poorly in my experience. Can't fully process what happened, sorry for the readers. Pure fan experience today. And a game like that reminds us all why we are fans.

Aaron Schatz: Two thoughts from watching the final Cincinnati drive in this game.

  • I realize that the Bengals DID manage to constantly convert fourth downs and came back to win this game, but man, Vic Beasley was just eating Cordy Glenn's lunch for most of this drive. The play that almost knocked the ball out of Dalton's hands, then a play that did knock the ball out of his hands, then the illegal use of hands penalty to move the Bengals back when they were finally getting close to the touchdown.
  • I don't know what that coverage was on the final touchdown throw to A.J. Green. Cover-2 maybe? I don't think "let A.J. Green go to the corner of the end zone by himself" is a good coverage.

Buffalo Bills 0 at Green Bay Packers 22

Derrik Klassen: It has been a rough first quarter for Josh Allen. Through a few drives, Allen is 3-of-9 for just 21 yards, only completing two quick passes out of the backfield and a slant route to convert a third down. Given his athletic ability and arm strength, Allen is bound to find a big play or two vs. this Packers defense, but it has yet to happen and Allen is struggling to carry over the success he saw last week.

Dave Bernreuther: Josh Allen is doing Josh Allen things: under no pressure at all on a designed quick rollout, he Chuck Knoblauched a ball 5 yards over Charles Clay's head when Clay was probably less than 5 yards away from him.

On a third-and-5, perhaps spooked after getting clobbered by Colts castoff Antonio Morrison, he left a clean pocket, ran around for no reason, reversed field back to that pocket ... and threw behind a nearby LeSean McCoy to end the drive.

6-0 Packers, who are driving again, and Aaron Rodgers thus far seems to be looking Jimmy Graham's way a lot.

Vince Verhei: There's some Tim Tebow to Josh Allen's game. He's not going to throw many interceptions, I don't think, simply because so many of his passes are so bad NOBODY has a chance to catch them. He's not getting help from Kelvin Benjamin, who has dropped a pass and somehow managed to escape a personal foul when he tried to poke his fingers into Jaire Alexander's eyes. Searching for Benjamin's name on Twitter yields some fun results -- looks like all of Buffalo is sick of him.

Aaron Jones runs for a touchdown to put Green Bay up 13-0. Packers are now up to 70 rushing yards on only 12 carries. That includes some good runs by the allegedly injured Aaron Rodgers -- he had a 10-yard scramble for a first-and-goal to set up the Jones touchdown.

Derrik Klassen: Josh Allen just made 1 (one) deep pass on a busted coverage and the broadcast immediately went with the "That was Favre-like" line.

Vince Verhei: And Allen follows that with a brutal interception -- scrambling to his right with two Packers all over him, instead of throwing it away, he lobs a duck deep to the middle of the field at about the goal line. Apparently intended for Zay Jones, but Alexander catches it like he's fair catching a punt and returns it out of the end zone to the 26. That's 58 yards on receptions for the Bills, 27 yards on interception returns for the Packers defense.

Derrik Klassen: The score is just 16-0 heading into the half, but it has been a dominant performance from Green Bay thus far. The offense is cooking and has been excellent aside from an interception that was caused due to a batted pass. Most notably, the Packers offense has converted seven of their nine third down attempts, giving them the freedom to hold onto the ball and give the Bills offense fewer chances to find their footing.

Key difference for this game versus the Vikings game for Buffalo is the defense. Versus Minnesota, the secondary clamped down on many of the passing concepts and did not allow YAC. Kirk Cousins was forced to take short throws and the Bills did well to rally and make tackles. The front also generated much more pressure, including multiple strip-sacks on Cousins. The Bills have not been able to generate that same pressure vs. Aaron Rodgers and the secondary has constantly been out of position, be that blowing coverage or failing to rally for tackles. The Bills offense obviously needs to show some life, but if the defense does not get it together, the Packers offense could come out firing again in the second half.

Dave Bernreuther: The best part is that even after that deep ball, Allen goes into the half with a sterling 3 yards per attempt on 5-of-19 passing. Without that he's 4-of-18 for 23 yards and a pick.

It's fun that this is happening on the same field as Aaron Rodgers. And even funnier that the Bills gave away players and picks in order to move up to draft him 17 slots higher than Rodgers was.

My bias is showing but I don't even care. It's funny. But also depressing, in a way, because Brandon Beane gets paid over a million dollars a year and kept his job, even after making that decision. (For the record, I am pretty confident that nobody here gets paid over a million dollars per year.) And nothing about this is even remotely surprising to anyone with functional eyes.

Rodgers, meanwhile, is injured and looks amazing even on his incompletions. Earlier in the game he was flushed from the pocket and had the presence of mind, touch, and accuracy to float one up for Davante Adams in the right of the end zone, where he was well defended ... but I am pretty certain he started the play on the left side of the formation and was still on that half of the field when Rodgers threw it up. Later, again moving to his right (quite ably for someone with a knee injury), a flick of the wrist led to a highly precise dart on the sideline where only Geronimo Allison could've caught it, and he almost did. Buffalo fans, take note: THAT is the kind of mobility and arm talent that you trade multiple assets to land.

Scott Kacsmar: Whether or not Ha Ha Clinton-Dix makes the interception today, each Josh Allen interception has made you want to say "Ha Ha!" However, Rodgers really just got away with a possible pick-six on a fourth-down throw. Reminded me of the Kyle Fuller dropped pick in Week 1, though hardly in as important of a spot with the Packers up 19-0 and basically toying with the Bills today.

Derrik Klassen: Aaron Rodgers' numbers still look fine, but he has been more careless today than usual. It is likely due to the discomfort his knee is bringing him, but the point remains. The Bills defense has dropped at least three interceptions today, which is quite uncharacteristic of Rodgers, especially since there is still a full quarter of play left. Rodgers has still made a number of great throws, but he has been a fortunate that the Bills' defense is not capitalizing on his mistakes and that the Bills' offense can not move the ball.

Dave Bernreuther: Josh Allen sacking himself -- running backwards for no reason while I was having a conversation about his awful pocket awareness -- is a signal that it's time to stop. Mercy rule. I'm not going to make fun of him for the rest of the year. It's just too easy.

Vince Verhei: I appreciate that Dave. I'll need all that Allen material for Quick Reads.

Bryan Knowles: Leave some for Scramble, dang it!

Dave Bernreuther: Maybe add a "Josh Allen throw of the week" or "This week in Josh Allen Pocket Follies" to scramble down by KCW and Jeff Fisher the other awards?

Vince Verhei: I'm pulling seniority. I've been making fun of terrible quarterbacks since before you sent your first Tweet. I get first crack at Allen jokes.

Bryan Knowles: This is how revolutions start, you know.

Andrew Potter: Now, now. I'm confident there will be more than enough mockery to go around.

Detroit Lions 24 at Dallas Cowboys 26

Andrew Potter: The Cowboys in their white uniforms against the Lions in all grey is exactly as hideous in practice as it sounds in theory. It looks like somebody severely messed up their color and contrast settings.

Dave Bernreuther: Ha. It looks like I'm watching a TV with the R and G component cables unplugged.

Whoever decided the Lions should wear any color other than Honolulu Blue should be fired.

Scott Kacsmar: Lions find the end zone first after a 45-yard touchdown to Golden Tate. It's one thing for the corner to slip on the route in trying to keep up with Tate, but Jeff Heath had a great shot to make a tackle and looked like he stepped in quicksand.

Vince Verhei: Tavon Austin runs a fly route on Darius Slay. He's not really open, but Dak Prescott hits him in the chest and at least gives him a chance to outfight Slay for the ball. Sadly, Austin fails to do that, collapses to the turf, and immediately starts grabbing his wrist and shoulder. A thin Dallas wide receiver corps looks even thinner now.

Scott Kacsmar: Ezekiel Elliott had 37 yards on his first 11 catches this season, which gives you another idea of how bad that offense has been. He just had a 38-yard touchdown on a screen pass. The Cowboys have had three pass plays of 30-plus yards in this half.

Vince Verhei: There was a weird play right before that Elliott screen pass. Prescott dropped back, pinballed off a couple of defenders, tried to keep his balance, and eventually fell to his knee for a sack. But when he stood up, Romeo Okwara knocked him right back down, an easy 15-yard penalty. That turned a second-and-long on Dallas' side of the field into a first down at the Detroit 38, and Elliott and his convoy of linemen took over from there. My favorite play in football is still the well-executed screen, with a wall of big linemen rumbling downfield escorting their teammate into the end zone. Really gets to the heart of what I think football should be.

Happy to report that Austin has returned to the game -- he just gained 7 yards on a jet sweep on Dallas' first drive of the second half. The way he was grabbing at his shoulder earlier, I was sure it was a broken clavicle and his season was done.

Aaron Schatz: Cowboys got down to the 4-yard line with 5:52 left, up 20-17. On fourth down, they kicked the field goal to go up 23-17, thus forcing Detroit to be more aggressive on their next drive. If you guessed "Detroit will march down the field, score a touchdown, and take a one-point lead," you win a prize. I'm not a fan of going up 6 at the end of the game. Go for the touchdown. At least you know you'll pin the other team deep if you fail.

Vince Verhei: Golden Tate remains really good. Gets his second long touchdown of the day when the cornerback (Byron Jones, I think) gives him a free pass down the sideline. Come to think of it, looks a lot like the same Cover-2 Dallas ran that resulted in a long score against Seattle last week. Tate is now at 8-8-132-2 and Detroit is up 24-21. When we think of the moves that crippled the Seattle empire, we usually think of the Percy Harvin and Max Unger trades, but letting Tate leave in free agency was a bad transaction too.

Aaron Schatz: Dallas gets away with the bad decision by marching down the field with the ball back, mostly with a beautiful catch down the right sideline one a deep pass to Ezekiel Elliott. Cowboys bring in rookie kicker Brett Maher and take home a 26-24 win. I would have gone for it on fourth-and-goal from the 4 though.

Vince Verhei: To Aaron's last point: The Cowboys had scored a touchdown earlier after converting a fourth-and-1 from the 3. (Elliott actually fumbled on the play, but Dallas recovered.) Obviously there's a difference between fourth-and-1 and fourth-and-goal from the 4, but they had already reaped the benefits of goal-line aggression earlier.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 at Chicago Bears 48

Bryan Knowles: Make it four games, four strip-sacks for Khalil Mack. That trade looks smarter and smarter by the day, doesn't it?

Chicago is up 21-3 early in the second quarter, and Tampa Bay's defense just looks completely lost.

Vince Verhei: Mitchell Trubisky had two touchdown passes in his first three games. He has four in the first half today, most to wide-open receivers. He's averaging more than 17 yards per pass. This is one of the worst Tampa Bay defenses ever, and think of the ground that covers.

Aaron Schatz: Just for fun, worst Tampa Bay defenses in DVOA history, including the worst defense in DVOA history, period.

Year DVOA Rank
1986 26.1% 28
2018 21.0% 29 (through three games)
1987 16.9% 26 (12 games)
2011 14.2% 31
1994 14.0% 28
2017 11.7% 32

Dave Bernreuther: I just happened to look up during a commercial to the Bears game, was shocked to see it was already 21-3 Bears, but then immediately saw a composed and accurate Trubisky throw downfield to wide open Trey Burton for some serious YAC, followed by a somewhat odd touchdown pass to a wide-open Josh Bellamy as well to go up 28-3. Pretty sure that's not something we can put on Fitzmagic/Fitzpumpkin.

What's interesting to me, though, was that it seemed (on the tiniest TV in the place) like what sprung Bellamy was a downfield pick in which the receivers both started running routes for several strides before then combining in the type of action we're used to seeing at or behind the line of scrimmage. But without any type of contact that seemed illegal. So Bellamy was free to leak out toward the sideline and catch an accurately placed floater and waltz in to the end zone. I need to see that one again, because it seemed very different from your average pick play but had exactly that type of result.

Anyway, the Bears -- the BEARS -- are up 28-3. Which would be unusual if it was the fourth quarter. But it's bear-ly halfway through the second. Oh. And now they have first and goal after a Trubisky run while I typed all that. And score one play later on another of those K.C. special touch passes. I have no idea how they even got the ball back ... but I'm still less confused right now than the Bucs defense was after that play.

Vince Verhei: Trubisky scrambles for 26 yards to set up a first-and-goal, then hits a SHOVeLL to Taylor Gabriel for the touchdown. That's 254 yards and five touchdowns passing for Trubisky, plus 53 yards rushing. There's still nearly five minutes left in the first half.

Bryan Knowles: SHOVeLL alert in Chicago! That's Trubisky's fifth touchdown pass in the game, already, in the first half. Red Zone is making a big deal about that being the Bears "modern" record, but forget that -- Trubisky's got a real shot at Sid Luckman's franchise record of seven, set back in 1943. 35-3 Chicago, and the Fitzmagic is gone.

Vince Verhei: Seven touchdowns isn't just the Bears record, it's the all-time NFL record, and if the Bears don't make a concerted effort to get Trubisky three more, I'm going to be very angry.

Dave Bernreuther: As a Peyton fan I should disagree, but I don't. I will also be very upset.

Right now the Nagy offense looks like it's trying to outdo the Reid-Mahomes offense. And while on the whole I am a little annoyed at the college-ifying of the NFL (because I do like good defense, hate these RTP issues this year, and sort of miss when 400 yards passing was unusual) ... I am also entertained. Very, very entertained.

Scott Kacsmar: The Bears only scored 49 points on offense in the first three games. They put up 35 in the first half today. I'd say even if Dirk Koetter survives this season, defensive coordinator Mike Smith is definitely getting the boot.

Vince Verhei: Ah, the Bears are already calling off the dogs. Following a Ryan Fitzpatrick red zone interception, the Bears have a third-and-7 in Tampa Bay territory. They take the ball away from Trubisky and hand off to Tarik Cohen for the give-up draw. It doesn't even gain a yard, but Cody Parkey is good from 50 yards to put the Bears up 38-3 at halftime.

The FitzMagic has ended. Jameis Winston is in at quarterback on the first drive of the second half. He converts a fourth-and-1 at his own 34 with a completion to Adam Humphries, but a few plays later, 2018 Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack his arm on a pass. The ball goes basically straight up, and eventually comes down into the arms of Danny Trevathan for an interception.

Bryan Knowles: Fitzmagic gets pulled for Jameis Winston, back from his suspension. On his first drive, he's pressured by (who else?) Khalil Mack, and throws an interception.

This is not going well for the Bucs, but hey -- maybe the Bears defense is for real. That would be one of the more surprising developments of September.

Vince Verhei: Tarik Cohen gets 28 yards on a wheel route to set up a first-and-goal at the 3. The Bears, clearly aware of the situation, call three straight pass plays, and on third down Trubisky gets touchdown No. 6 on a flat route to a wide-open Gabriel. There are still more than 25 minutes left in this game.

Bryan Knowles: Trubisky finishes with just six touchdown passes. Fire the bum!

Scott Kacsmar: This one is hard to believe, but the Bears are the only offense since 2001 to have five touchdown drives of 70-plus yards before halftime. An offense has had at least four such drives in a first half 14 times since 2001, and three of those have happened in the last two weeks of action. The Redskins did it to Green Bay last week, the Rams did it to the Vikings on Thursday night, and now the Bears in this game.

New York Jets 12 at Jacksonville Jaguars 31

Scott Kacsmar: Blake Bortles is 15-of-16 for 192 yards with a throwaway and an easy 31-yard touchdown to T.J. Yeldon. Jeff Fisher is the CBS analyst and he sounds like he's calling the game from the comfort of his hotel bed. Very dull.

Dave Bernreuther: Forget 15-of-16 ... at one point Blake Bortles was a picture perfect 11-of-11, 111, according to a graphic I saw. Now that's just fun.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 at Tennessee Titans 26 (OT)

Tom Gower: The Titans were the better team for the better part of the first half, but are down 10-3 at the half, unable to get into scoring position after an opening field goal drive. Marcus Mariota has looked fine for the most part, until an ugly interception gifted the Eagles a field goal right before halftime. Tennesee's pressure got to the Eagles at times, but they've been taking advantage of Wesley Woodyard's absence by attacking the middle of the field. The touchdown was different, a throw to Jordan Matthews when he lined up out wide and ran a post route against what might have been quarters coverage, with Malcolm Butler a victim again after not getting inside help. Carson Wentz has looked fine to me, with a couple excellent throws. Two stood out, a seam throw that would have converted third-and-long that Nelson Agholor dropped, and a deep sideline completion to Alshon Jeffery.

Carl Yedor: Harold Landry forces a big fumble on a sack of Wentz, and after moving down the field they line up on third-and-short to hammer away in short yardage from about the Philly 25 with Dion Lewis instead of Derrick Henry. They don't get it, but they successfully convert on fourth down on a bootleg where Mariota flipped it to Lewis for the first down. Unfortunately for Tennessee, the drive immediately stalls after a negative play on a screen pass to Henry, and the Titans settle for 3.

Andrew Potter: Landry made a big play earlier in that drive as well, breaking off his rush to pursue Carson Wentz on a scramble when no other Titans defender was in position to stop Wentz. Landry caught up to Wentz barely past the line of scrimmage when he looked set to gain at least 20 yards. It doesn't look like much on the stat sheet, but it was tremendous awareness and pursuit.

The defensive lines have probably been the best unit on each team. It was a real surprise to see only two sacks apiece at halftime. Just about every yard either team gains is hard-earned. A real slugfest, by 2018 standards at least.

Derrik Klassen: Not watching this game, but it's no surprise Harold Landry was the one to come up with a big play. He has been outstanding all season. Early on, it looks like Tennessee got a good one with Landry.

Bryan Knowles: Oh my, full credit to Mike Vrabel for his play calling in overtime. With 1:02 left in overtime, the Titans could have kicked a 50-yard field goal to tie the game. Instead, the Titans went for it on fourth-and-2, setting up either an easier field goal or a potential winning touchdown.

And the gamble pays off! After just missing on several throws, Mariota hooks with Corey Davis to pull off the overtime win!

It was an ugly victory, for sure, but the Titans are becoming experts in ugly victories, and they all count the same in the win-loss column. And thank you, Titans, for not playing for our third tie of the season.

Tom Gower: After a first half of struggles, Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee offense were mostly outstanding the second half. They still couldn't run the ball, with Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry combining for six carries and 0 yards after halftime (12 for 24 for the game, long of 14), but Mariota didn't have an incompletion after his pick at the end of the first half until Darius Jennings dropped one deep downfield in overtime. But they couldn't finish in the four-minute drill, and Philly got a big punt return to set up a tying field goal after their offense had mostly sputtered after starting the second half with another touchdown to extend their lead.

Then overtime. The first two fourth-down decisions weren't even decisions, then the fourth-and-2, which I didn't think was that hard of a call to go for it given it would have been a 50-yarder and the Eagles would have had over a minute and a timeout to beat you.

Final takeaways? Mariota was fantastic. The Eagles had some tackling in space issues, notably on Dion Lewis. Tennessee's complete lack of a run game. Corey Davis with the game-winning touchdown as part of a 161-yard "breakout" game. Zach Ertz with 10 catches to lead Philadelphia, productive for much of the day against a Tennessee defense that had major issues, with rookie first-round pick Rashaan Evans getting yanked at times late. The Titans pass rush, credited with 11 quarterback hits on Wentz. Third-down drops, an issue on multiple times for both teams.

Seattle Seahawks 20 at Arizona Cardinals 17

Vince Verhei: Big news before the game is that the Cardinals are starting Josh Rosen with Mike Glennon as the backup and Sam Bradford as a healthy inactive. That's bad news for Bradford because he is missing out on active roster bonuses that pay him more than $300,000 per game; it's good news because he is still making $16 million in base salary to do basically nothing.

In other news, Sam Bradford is my favorite football player.

Cardinals' first two drives resulted in a quick punt and a lost fumble, but on their third possession their moving, and they have a first down in the red zone as the first quarter ends. Josh Rosen's two best throws so far have actually been incompletions. The first was a deep corner to Christian Kirk he dropped right in the bucket, but Kirk dropped. Then he had an amazing throw that somehow got through both Tre Flowers and Earl Thomas for what looked like a touchdown, but on review Chad Williams failed to get a second foot down in bounds. Cardinals are definitely picking on Flowers. Everything's going to the left as they're avoiding Shaquill Griffin.

Second quarter starts, and the Cardinals kick a field goal to make it 7-3 after Justin Coleman breaks up two passes.

This game is not yet 20 minutes old, and already the Seahawks have seen three drives end on third-down completions that failed to pick up a first down. Brian Schottenheimer is on fire!

Seahawks get a lucky break when David Moore fumbles on his first career reception, but the ball bounces right back to him and he picks up a first down at the Cardinals' 24. Seattle turned that good fortune into a holding penalty, a completion for a 5-yard loss on second-and-17, a run for 2 on third-and-22, and a missed 52-yard field goal by Sebastian Janikowski, his second miss of the day.

And then Rosen hits another pass that should have been a big play, a gain of 40 or 50 yards, but J.J. Nelson drops it. That's like 100 yards he has lost on dropped passes this half.

Bryan Knowles: I've been very impressed by Josh Rosen so far, which makes you wonder why Sam Bradford got as long as he did under center. He was my favorite quarterback of the draft -- "favorite" not necessarily meaning "best" here, but I just liked the guy more every time I saw him or heard from him -- and I'm glad to see him doing decently in his first start.

Vince Verhei: Cardinals get a touchdown where the biggest play was a pass interference in the end zone on Coleman. David Johnson carried it in from there.

On their last drive of the first half, Seahawks get what I think is their fourth third-down completion that does not pick up a first down (though this was on third-and-14, which is forgivable). They then opt to go for it on fourth-and-1 rather than try a 60-yard field goal, which is the wrong call, but the team that says it wants to run when the opponent knows it will and has already run for 95 yards on the day opts to pass. Chandler Jones zips by Duane Brown and sacks Wilson to end the drive. Cards take over at the 50, but don't have time to do much with it, and Phil Dawson misses a 50-yard kick at the gun. Cards up 10-7.

At the half, Wilson is 12-of-14, but for just 85 yards and three first downs. The Seahawks are 0-for-5 on third downs and 0-for-1 on fourth. Rosen is officially 6-of-13 for 50 yards, but has played much better than that.

Aaron Schatz: I don't know if going for it on fourth-and-1 is the wrong call there. A 60-yard field goal is really hard to hit, even for Janikowski, even in Arizona. That's a tough one.

Vince Verhei: Oh, I mistyped. I definitely think Seattle was right to go for it there. But I strongly think they should have run instead of pass.

Carl Yedor: First half in one word: ugly. Three missed field goals, two fumbles, at least five dropped passes. Seahawks managed another rushing touchdown by a running back, so I guess that's a plus? Schottenheimer's offense remains mind-numbingly frustrating to watch. Basically, when you're able to run the ball well, it sorta works. When you commit penalties or get stuffed on early downs, it doesn't. Cardinals are bringing a ton of pressure in obvious passing situations, which is to be expected of Steve Wilks. Rosen has looked a lot better than his numbers show, as Vince mentioned. Maybe our Arizona prediction won't look as bad if Rosen can bring the offense towards competency. David Johnson has had a few nice runs as well.

Vince Verhei: Coming into the game, Wilson was averaging a career-low 7.0 rushing yards per game, and I don't think he had kept the ball once on an option play. He finally does here, and runs for a 10-yard gain and a first down. Then he scrambles on third down to set up fourth-and-1 at the 29, and they again turn down the field goal to go for it. They run the option, Patrick Peterson shadows Wilson, and Penny gets an easy first down. Unfortunately Wilson fumbles the pitch on the next play (looked like the center stepped on his foot) and they lose 9 yards. It leads to a field goal try, and Janikowski hits from 40, and we're tied at 10.

Carl Yedor: Seahawks go down and kick a field goal on their first possession of the second half. Carroll went for it on fourth-and-1 earlier in the drive, which was an improvement in game management, but that likely had more to do with a lack of confidence in Sebastian Janikowski after he missed multiple kicks in the first half. And, with a little zone-read, they easily pick up the first down on a handoff to Rashaad Penny. I mean, if you're going to pour resources into improving the running game, fourth-and-1 is the time to try and cash in. Seattle immediately went backwards afterward, so they end up forced to kick anyway. 10-10 with 5 minutes left in the third.

Vince Verhei: I was shocked last night to see Seattle's offense with the best red zone DVOA in the league. Only a handful of plays over three games, of course, but they're at it again here. Mike Davis loses a 1-yard touchdown to an illegal formation penalty because sixth lineman Joey Hunt apparently failed to report as eligible. But a penalty on Arizona's defense gives Seattle another first down, and eventually Davis gets a 1-yard touchdown that counts. 17-10 Seattle.

Third-and-1. You haven't converted a third down all day. Your team has run for 148 yards and two touchdowns. Run the ball! Instead Wilson drops back, does a couple of pirouettes, and throws incomplete. Seattle's play calling today has been schizophrenic and self-destructive.

And then Michael Dickson kicks his first touchback of the season, and Arizona needs only five plays to tie the game. Sweet over-the-shoulder pass to Ricky Seals-Jones for 31. Screen pass to David Johnson for 30 yards. 22-yard touchdown pass to Chad Williams.

Oh wait, there's more. Earl Thomas goes down on the play holding his leg. Seahawks form a circle around him holding hands. He's carted off in an air cast. Looks like he flips off the Seattle sideline as he's wheeled off. This is why he wanted that extension so bad.

Fuck.

Bryan Knowles: Well, all the curse words in the world. Earl Thomas is being carted off with a cast around his leg.

This is why players hold out, and why they should, and why they deserve to get paid; you never know when something is going to happen in a game this violent.

Vince Verhei: Video of Earl's bird:

Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, and Earl Thomas all saw their Seahawks careers end due to injury in this stadium. Which is also where Malcolm Butler got his goal-line interception. If it burns down this week, it was me.

Carl Yedor: The Arizona turf monster strikes again. Earl Thomas gets carted off on the Cardinals' game-tying touchdown pass. Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor's Seattle careers both ended in Arizona last season, and if this is serious, it could be the end of Thomas' tenure with the Seahawks as well.

The touchdown itself was a dime by Rosen. Patiently sat in the pocket and delivered the ball in a place only his receiver could get to.

Bryan Knowles: Josh Rosen leads the Cardinals into range for a game-winning field goal, but Phil Dawson hooks it. The Seahawks get the ball back, and settle for a 52-yard field goal attempt -- a lack of urgency? Learning nothing from the Atlanta game last season? It ends up not mattering, though -- Seabass hits the field goal, and the Seahawks escape Arizona with a win.

Cardinals should be happy with Rosen's performance, though; you wonder what their season would be like if they had, you know, started their first-round rookie from the gun rather than messing around with Sam Bradford. Maybe it's just 1-3 instead of 0-4, but still.

Vince Verhei: I can barely form coherent sentences at this point. Rosen made a bunch of big throws and had Arizona in position to win, but instead of trusting him to convert a third-and-6 they hand off to burn Seattle's last timeout, but then Phil Dawson misses a 45-yard field goal. Seattle has 1:50, an eternity even with no timeouts. Two runs and a pass get them to the Arizona 40. At that point, with a kicker who has missed twice already, they do my ultimate pet peeve and PLAY FOR THE LONG FIELD GOAL. They run on first, run on second, clock on third. This is stupid. Stupid stupid. But Janikowski bails them out with a 52-yard field goal and Seattle wins 20-17. I'm actually angry. Seahawks management deserved to lose today, for many reasons, but because the Cardinals are an even bigger wreck they get to congratulate themselves for seven days.

San Francisco 49ers 27 at Los Angeles Chargers 29

Bryan Knowles: The 49ers jump out to an early lead in this one, thanks to a pick-six. The 49ers' defense has actually been pretty solid today, which is a pleasant change of pace. Yes, they left Antonio Gates wide open in the end zone for the Chargers touchdown, and if the Chargers could make a kick it'd be 14-10 rather than 14-6, but a lead is a lead.

Joe Staley has just gone down, though, which won't help C.J. Beathard. Beathard has been ... well, boring, but that's better than he was last season when every other play was a sack. An aggressive defense plus a safe offense is not exactly what 49ers fans had in mind for this season, but hey, if that can keep up, they'll take it.

Halftime here, tied at 17. That's a good result for the 49ers based on what expectations were coming in, and a good result for the Chargers after a first quarter where they could get absolutely nothing going. The Chargers have been able to capitalize on big plays -- a 56-yard punt return to set up a field goal just before the half, a 22-yard touchdown pass to Austin Ekeler, etc. -- to tie things up. They're not moving the ball consistently, but they're making enough big plays against busted coverages to keep pace. The 49ers are the exact opposite; they've only had one play of 20 yards in the first half, with nothing else even going past 15. They've only got 138 yards of total offense, but that's mostly just about gameflow and not success. They have been able to move, slowly but surely. They had a 21-play, 72-yard field goal drive in the first half. That's the longest drive for any team all season, in terms of plays, and the longest drive to not end up as a touchdown since the Browns had a 21-play field goal drive back in 2015. So, you know. Not the most thrilling offensive performance we've seen, but at least the game is exciting when the Chargers have the ball!

More worryingly for the 49ers is that both starting tackles, Staley and Mike McGlinchy, have left the game. The Chargers should be able to get good pressure here in the second half.

There's a law, somewhere, that the Chargers can not have a good kicking game. They score to take a 23-17 lead -- their fourth consecutive scoring drive to get back in this one -- but they miss another extra point, and Chargers fans have to be tearing their hair out.

On the other hand, the 49ers bad tackling from last week in Kansas City has finally arrived, so the Chargers are beginning to take this one over.

Not an ideal red zone outcome: C.J. Beathard hits Garrett Celek right in the numbers, but the ball bounces off of Celek's hands, right into the arms of Tyrell Williams. Williams takes it all the way back into the other red zone.

Just a bit of a swing, there. The 49ers' defense holds tight so it's just a field goal, but that's at least a six-point swing in what's now a nine-point game.

The 49ers are driving, but on consecutive plays:

  • Matt Breida goes down, in exceptional pain, and has to be helped to the sideline.
  • C.J. Beathard, scrambling around and avoiding a sack, takes a wicked shot and has to limp off the field.

The 49ers are now down to Nick Mullens, who was just brought off the practice squad yesterday, and Alfred Morris at running back. A pair of third-stringers. Oh, and both starting tackles are out. Other than that, this is the Kyle Shanahan offense we were all expecting to see, right?

The Chargers, clinging to a two-point lead with 3:50 left ... punt on fourth-and-1 from the 49ers 37? That's a heck of a scaredy-cat punt, there, and the 49ers get the ball back out to the 30 within a play.

Of course, it ends up not mattering, as Beathard is hit by an unblocked rusher, the ball pops into the air, and Isaac Rochell brings it in for the interception. If the 49ers can hold the Chargers to a field goal, it's still a one-score game ... but San Francisco is out of timeouts after a couple failed challenges earlier in the game. It has not been Kyle Shanahan's finest hour, in terms of game management.

Rob Weintraub: Addendum to the Rochell interception -- the play-by-play guy yelled "Rochelle Rochelle!!" afterwards. He didn't add "Isaac's erotic journey from Milan to Minsk!!" sadly.

Dave Bernreuther: Oh wow and here I thought I was insane for having heard that and going off on a Seinfeld tangent mid-game. Thank you for pointing out that I am not [entirely] crazy.

Vince Verhei: If I have to lean on either Philip Rivers winning a game or C.J. Beathard losing one, I'm going with the latter.

Bryan Knowles: Beathard was pretty good today! The two picks were a ball that bounced off a receiver's hands, and an unblocked rusher popping the ball into the air.

I know, I'm as shocked as you are.

This won't come as a shocker to Falcons fans, but Kyle Shanahan tends to trust his offense rather than playing it safe when sitting on a lead. For example, take the end of the first half today: sitting on a three-point lead with 47 seconds left in the half, Shanahan could have knelt and headed into the locker room, with his double-digit underdog team holding on to a small lead. Alternatively, with two timeouts left, they could have run the ball and, if they had broken a big play, could have opted to get aggressive from there. Instead, they threw three straight passes -- two incomplete, and the third leading the receiver out of bounds. They drained just 17 seconds off the clock and had to punt. The Chargers returned said punt into field goal range to tie it up at the half. In a two-point loss, that's a huge moment! He also blew two timeouts on challenges that were arguably not close -- one on a fumble out of bounds, and one on a spot on a third-down play, neither of which looked particularly promising at the time. That meant the 49ers couldn't stop the clock at the end of the game and potentially get the ball back down five.

Of course, none of that would matter if the 49ers could block, tackle, or cover, but little things do matter in close losses. And the Chargers should feel very fortunate they came out with a win at all in this one, despite being pretty obviously the better team.

New Orleans Saints 33 at New York Giants 18

Bryan Knowles: Surprised to see the Giants clinging to a 7-6 lead this early. The Saints are finding room to drive -- helped in one case by a fake punt, the kind you can do when your gunner's actually a quarterback -- but they're not finding their way into the end zone. A lot of credit to the Giants defense for keeping an explosive offense in first gear so far.

Vince Verhei: Our preseason projections had the Giants defense as the worst in the league. I think it's pretty clear we were wrong about that.

Aaron Schatz: What is going on with the Giants offense? Where's the downfield scheme that Pat Shurmur had in Minnesota last year? Everything is short either dumpoffs or screens. They're getting consistent gains with it, but it's all short. Manning currently is 15-of-19 for 84 yards. That's not even six yards per completion. And as I type this, there's a four-yard pass to Odell Beckham. Why is Odell Beckham standing around just four yards downfield?

Bryan Knowles: The Saints have been running a surprising amount of stuff today with Taysom Hill behind center and Drew Brees split out wide. I've counted six plays with Hill behind center, and I may have missed one or two. It has finally paid off, though -- after four straight field goals, the Hill Wildcat ends up giving the ball to Alvin Kamara for the Saints' first touchdown of the game. 19-7.

Vince Verhei: Drew Brees is the all-time leader in completions and will soon be the all-time leader in passing yards. He has been, at worst, the second-best passer in the league this season. Lining him out wide repeatedly might be the best example ever of a team out-thinking itself.

Aaron Schatz: The Giants finally started throwing downfield near the end of the third quarter! Consecutive passes of 12 and 23 yards! Couldn't do anything in the red zone, though, so now we're at Saints 19, Giants 10.

Janoris Jenkins has done a great job of shutting down Michael Thomas today. Just had only his third target of the game. It was a wide receiver screen. Of course, Thomas got a first down on it because he seems to get a first down on everything.

Saquon Barkley leaps over a pile to get into the end zone, Giants get the two-point conversion, and we're at 26-18 Saints. On the ensuing kickoff, Ted Ginn decides to try to field the ball at the 2 and muffs it. By the time he picks it up, the Giants coverage team is all around him, and he goes down at the 3. That's about as bad a kick return as you can have without fumbling it back to the kicking team. Saints manage to get a first down on a pass with their first play, though, so they won't be pinned in their own end. Driving now, up eight, three minutes left.

Aaron Schatz: Saints get a 9-yard gain by Kamara, a 1-yard gain by Kamara, and then he gets away from everyone for a 49-yard touchdown and that should be the ballgame.

Overall, I think the Giants defense looked a lot better than anyone would expect, especially without Olivier Vernon. But the red zone performance they had in the first half is really not sustainable, and eventually the Saints offense was able to establish itself. As for the Giants' offense, what a mess. There's so much individual talent, but it's very clearly less than the sum of its parts right now. They've got to get the ball downfield more. And they need more than 10 carries for 44 yards from Barkley, which is what they have as of 2:00 left. They're just not giving him the running holes he needs to be successful on the ground.

Cleveland Browns 42 at Oakland Raiders 45 (OT)

Bryan Knowles: I'll admit, I'm occasionally flipping over to this game just to see what could be the last ever football game played on a baseball infield, if the Raiders do indeed leave the Coliseum after this season. It only took 100 seasons, right?

Cleveland was beginning to run away with this one at one point, and as the Raiders have been outscored in the fourth quarter more than any other team in the NFL, things were looking good for the super-rare back-to-back wins for Cleveland. But they just had troubles on the quarterback-center exchange and the Raiders jumped on it. Two plays later, Derek Carr finds Jordy Nelson for the Raiders' first fourth-quarter touchdown of the season, and a 31-28 lead early in the fourth. Browns gotta Brown, even though they've been very un-Brown-like today.

Dave Bernreuther: Without sound. I don't know what happened, but to everyone's eyes, that was an obvious fumble by Derek Carr and what could've been a touchdown return. For some reason it was blown dead and the Raiders punted.

The universe is just, however, and a penalty and two long runs later, the Browns -- the Browns! -- are in good shape in Oakland, although there are still over four minutes left.

I have no idea what's happening in Oakland. A game icing spot is overturned after review, and so the Browns punt on fourth-and-inches, up eight. This shouldn't matter, but on the punt two blatant penalties go uncalled, then Gregg Williams plays a Gregg williams defense with safeties lined up in another area code, and in the blink of an eye, the Raiders have first-and-goal, punch it in, and convert the deuce, and I guess we'll get another overtime game.

The Raiders have decades of history of unconscious referee bias against them, so they deserve a boost, but wow has this half felt like they've gotten some home cooking. This game should be over.

Gruden changes his mind about punting in order to try a 50-yarder from the dirt. That feels like a one-in-three proposition to me, and as expected, it's a miss.

After a flag gets picked up and a punt, we're at midfield inside of four minutes and Gruden is again playing for a long field goal. Like Vince, I find this despicable. And I can't be alone in rooting for the tie here. The Browns deserved to win this one in regulation ... but 1-1-2 would be hilarious.

Baltimore Ravens 26 at Pittsburgh Steelers 14

Scott Kacsmar: Steelers win the toss and defer. I know we generally applaud that to try setting up the double score midway through the game, but I don't think I like the decision with this matchup. Until the Pittsburgh defense shows more, I would want to put the offense on the field first instead of potentially starting the game down 7-0 and feeling like it's an uphill battle all night.

Just like that, the Ravens are driving with a couple of third-down conversions. The Wildcat with Lamar Jackson is alive and well too. John Brown smokes the secondary for a touchdown on a nice throw by Joe Flacco. The readers are just going to have to believe me (proof: Twitter timestamp) that I typed the first paragraph about not deferring before the touchdown happened. 7-0 Ravens.

All tied at 14 in Pittsburgh with two minutes left in the first half. The Ravens have to be kicking themselves. Michael Crabtree was wide open for another possible touchdown, but Flacco missed the throw under pressure. Alex Collins fumbled at the 1-yard line when it looked like the Ravens would make it 21-3. Vance McDonald, after an early fumble, is having another big half for the Steelers after his stiff arm on Chris Conte on Monday night. Roethlisberger has another shot at throwing for over 250 yards in the first half for the third week in a row if he gets another possession (224 yards so far). The offense is definitely feeling it, but we'll see if the defense can keep getting stops. This secondary is a mess.

Aaron Schatz: Two things that stand out to me from this game. First, the right side of the Pittsburgh offensive line is back, and the offensive line continuity is one of the reasons why our projection system loves the Pittsburgh offense every year, but where's the run blocking? James Conner has six carries for 14 yards so far. Second, it's clear that Baltimore is a great example of how changing receivers changes your scheme because they can do different things. Joe Flacco really is able to throw deeper patterns now that he's got guys like John Brown around, so he doesn't have to be Super Captain Checkdown like he has been the last couple years. Have to go look at the numbers but I'm guessing he finally has a year where he isn't leading the league in failed completions.

Scott Kacsmar: Last I looked Eli Manning was on pace to shatter the failed completions record, but we'll see. Also, one thing I really loved from Baltimore was a true double team on Antonio Brown on the two-point conversion. They had two guys lined up across from him at the line, so the play never went there at all. The Steelers still scored with a throw to the right, but I love to see when a defense actually employs a true double team on an offense's best weapon in the red zone.

Tom Gower: What a dismal second half for the Steelers offense. Just three first downs on six possessions and 47 yards overall. No semblance of a run game (Conner finished with 19 yards on nine carries), and Ben Roethlisberger wasn't making plays on his own -- more like the opposite of it. Baltimore's offense was consistent much more than explosive, but that was more than enough for the road division win.

Comments

133 comments, Last at 03 Oct 2018, 9:24am

1 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by jtr // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:07am

The Saints have actually created a productive offense based around a gimmick backup QB in Taysom Hill. I think this is the first time a team has successfully integrated Wildcat shenanigans into an offense since the 2008 Dolphins introduced it; every other team I've seen try it seems to only manage to put themselves into a predictable play and disrupt the rhythm of their own offense. It helps that Hill is actually a super multi-dimensional player; yesterday he showed some chops as a passer, rusher, blocker, and receiver. It's a hell of a lot harder for a defense to account for a guy who can do all of those things than it is to account for a telegraphed direct snap to a tailback, which is usually all that a team's wildcat "wrinkle" amounts to.

That said, the Giants defense needed to do better defending Hill as a shotgun QB. The Saints gave him several snaps like that, and it was always a zone read. Giants got beat for a TD of about 8 yards on like the third or . It was what, 2011 that the whole NFL learned to defend the zone read? The Giants needed to adjust and they just didn't.

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82 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:02pm

Was the wildcat "integrated" better, or was it simply effective? Is there a difference?

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94 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by dank067 // Oct 01, 2018 - 6:04pm

There was a good article (believe it was in the ringer) a couple of weeks ago about the "10th anniversary" of the Dolphins unveiling the Wildcat with interviews with coaches and players, etc. One of the things they all highlighted as a key to making it effective that season was demonstrating early on that Ronnie Brown could throw the ball and that they were willing to let him throw it. Even if he still was a limited passer, it created an exponentially greater number of options for defenses to have to consider as they figured out how to defend it. Most of the teams that went on to copy the wildcat and just did the same couple of run plays didn't understand that.

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126 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Oct 02, 2018 - 5:32pm

Possibly this one? I'll bookmark it to read after MNF!

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/8/6/17654594/history-wildcat-miami-do...

ETA: It didn't say that, Brown threw the ball three times all year. The key was that they had six plays that took 30 mins to practice, while the opposition took entire days of practice. That year, almost every defense they faced used only their regular looks, so Miami's regular offense had it easy.

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113 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by jtr // Oct 02, 2018 - 9:09am

I think it was more effective BECAUSE it was better integrated. Hill can do several things from several different alignments, like when they put him at wing back and had him throw a reasonably effective lead block. Since they were using him as a PLAYER instead of just a gimmick, he became a challenge for the defense to adapt to rather than just a giant flashing sign that they were going to have this guy run the ball.

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98 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by RobotBoy // Oct 01, 2018 - 7:02pm

In my eyes, the central difference in N.O.'s use of it is that it's not a desperation move. Those 2008 Dolphins put in the wildcat because they were a mess on offense (Pennington was hurt, I think), so that's really all they had. As soon as teams figured out how to defend it, there was very little else. With a great offense like N.O., it becomes one more complexity that other teams have to prepare for and confront.

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2 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Harris // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:28am

The Eagles' OL was awful all day and the secondary was unspeakable in the second half. Graham allowing that 4th-and-15 conversion might be the worst play I've ever seen at any level, and I've watched teams coached by Rich Kotite and Chip Kelly. I am sick and tired of watching Mills get burned and/or give up backbreaking penalties.

But at least Sam Bradford stole less money yesterday.

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6 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by horn // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:34am

I don't know what was worse, that Defensive scheme by Schwartz or the fact that Graham just stood there.

'On 4th and 15 for the game let's have everyone stand 15 yds back!' WTH guys.

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7 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Harris // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:37am

They run that sticks coverage a lot and I don't like it, but it usually prevents the first down. Graham didn't get enough depth or width, then stood there as the WR ran past him. It was mindboggling.

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15 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Anon Ymous // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:54am

On the flip-side, Alshon is really, really good.

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3 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by jtr // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:28am

As far as that clip of Andrew Luck throwing a lame duck to the RB, I don't think that really says anything about his shoulder. I think that's just a rusty QB psyching himself out a little bit. It's easy to get into your on head on the short stuff; it's pretty common in baseball for a pitcher who easily throws 90+MPH strikes to find himself mentally unable to make the short throw to first base after fielding a ground ball. It's not about arm strength, it's about trying to find the right touch when you're specifically trying not to throw it as hard as he can. He knows better than to rifle it in hard enough to break the guy's fingers like Matt Stafford, and he overthinks it a bit.

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10 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Lebo // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:48am

Agreed. Plus, he threw one about 50 yards (from memory) towards the end of regulation (again, from memory). It definitely wasn't as strong as Jacoby Brissett's Hail Mary last week, but it was sufficiently strong for a starting QB. Hopefully, he continues to get stronger.

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4 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by sbond101 // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:30am

Regarding NE vs. MIA: I think it's somewhat misplaced to call the NE offense efficient, in the first half - excluding the drive starting at the MIA 20 after the fumble - they had 5 drives 2 TD's a FG, a punt & an INT; an above average half but by no means utterly dominant. By contrast, here are the drive outcomes for the eight drives Tannehill had (excluding the end of half kneel down); Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Fumble, Punt, Punt, INT, Punt (the last three after half). N.B. It took until the 7th uninterrupted drive for MIA to get more than one first down on a drive. This game was about the total failure of MIA to accomplish anything on offense (possibly credit NE defense?) rather than NE being efficient.

On a related note I asked in game day if anyone knows why MIA had no success attacking the Pat's linebackers the way other teams have. I went through the PFR data and noted 6 short attempts to RB's on dump off's and noted that on 4 of the 6 of the attempts the defender was a corner or safety - I noticed when I was watching live the Pats seemed to be effectively defending the run from a dime package - do others think the strategy for the Pat's this year will be just play dime and hope the opponent can't power-run consistently?

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13 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Anon Ymous // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:53am

Two scoring drives were prolonged by defensive penalties as well, one of which was highly questionable. It also should be noted that Miami quit once they were down 17-0, so everything from there might as well not have even happened.

That said, it was nice to see the Patriots make use of their personnel rather than scheme to their weaknesses. They aren't the strongest group of offensive weapons, but they aren't as incapable as the past few weeks have appeared. Or people have been painting them as being. In the part of the game that mattered, it was clear that Brady was still lacking a security blanket on 3rd down, so Edelman's return is just what the doctor ordered. On a (much) smaller scale, the return of TE Jacob Hollister is also welcome.

Lastly, the OL finally arrived, which was nice. Doesn't matter how much skill you have at receiver/RB if your supposedly best run blocking guard gets blown up by fringe NFL players on 3rd and 1.

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74 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by nat // Oct 01, 2018 - 4:19pm

It was nice to see the Patriots make use of their personnel rather than scheme to their weaknesses.

For instance, it was nice to see Sony Michel targeted 0 times in the passing game. He's an exciting runner. But he's been pretty putrid the few times he's been targeted: bad hands, and not particularly good route running.

One can hope he eventually develops that part of his game. But for now, hand him the ball or maybe pitch it to him easy.

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99 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by RobotBoy // Oct 01, 2018 - 7:29pm

Michel was adequate as a pass catcher in college and nifty in the open field once he got the ball in his hands. I think he does have a chance to return to adequacy as a pro.
Last week the Pats were without their best offensive and defensive lineman. They'd already lost their rookie o-line stud who was projected to be the first reserve (and a starter by mid-season) as well as their best-performing run-stopping LB, both for the season. Obviously, Miami has the injury bug and talent issues as well on the OL but the Patriots were also simply better on D. Miami had six rushes for seven yards in the first half, I believe. Hightower finally seemed to be up to game speed after missing most of last year - he was calling great pre-snap adjustments and playing more smoothly than at any other point so far.
The Pats offense did indeed look creaky to open the game but the timing seemed to click into the second half. Teams have been blanketing Gronk and daring Brady to throw somewhere else - and nobody was getting open. Having Edelman back (if he can recover most of his pre-ACL form) and further improvement from Gordon should give Brady more options. At home, they should handle the Colts - the following week will be the real test.

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118 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by ClavisRa // Oct 02, 2018 - 12:18pm

I heard that Mason didn't know the snap count on that 3rd and 1 which is why he got blown up. Which makes a lot more sense than one of the best run-blocking guards in football suddenly can't block.

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20 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by johonny // Oct 01, 2018 - 11:20am

Miami's oline wasn't very good to start the game and was eventually down three starters late in this game. Their game plan was obviously to do just that, but their line just wouldn't allow them to do it. Miami had been playing laterally the last few weeks to cover for their weakness in their interior oline. For whatever reason, they didn't try to do much of that this week. Instead they tried the power run game that worked for the Lions. Only Gore is 35 years old and their interior oline is very bad. Obviously it didn't work.

Miami has one oline starter out for the year, their former all pro center is now in San Diego and his replacement went out early in this game, the guy that replaced him looked horrible, and to make matters worse their RT is also possibly hurt. It's a nightmare situation of their GMs making because he doesn't understand how to acquire oline talent so they've been thin at talent on the oline for years, and years. This game really demonstrated it.

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29 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by dank067 // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:18pm

A couple of defenses in the Big 12 play extensively out of dime, even on running downs and when offenses might only have 2 or 3 receivers on the field—most notably Iowa State, and Texas and Oklahoma State have done it recently too. You could say "well that's the Big 12, and nobody plays defense there anyway," but those teams have had varying degrees of success doing it. And even against spread offenses the running game is more of a big play threat in college football than in the NFL, so defending the run is not at all an afterthought when those defenses rely on dime.

Some of the keys to making it work include (obviously) having versatile DBs who are good enough to play the run as well as the pass, and varying the looks you give with your front 5 and their gap assignments. Part of how you stop teams from just running you over is by making it hard for the OL to figure out their blocking assignments and to figure out where the LBs and DBs might be crashing down from.

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58 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by mehllageman56 // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:46pm

Maybe The Jets should be doing this with Jamal Adams. Not sure if I should be griping about the defense, this may be an anomaly, but the pass defense did not show up today. Lee got suckered several times by receiving backs, and wide receivers were constantly open. They were able to shut down Jacksonville's run game, but Bortles killed them. Perhaps keeping 3 safeties out there would help, depends on how Darron Lee plays from now on. He was actually covering very well the first three weeks, so maybe this is just a game where everything fell apart.

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5 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by horn // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:33am

Earl Thomas has no class: Seattle paid him $44m to play safety so he's not like some 3rd round rookie RB. If you wanted to hold out for more money, you should have done so. Injuries are part of the sport, any sport, and you've made more money than 75 people will make in a lifetime to play a kid's game. What a jerk.

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14 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by drobviousso // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:54am

Organizations that shit on their rare commodities because they exercise monopoly power have no class. People with astonishing and rare talent wanting to get paid a market rate should be pissed off.

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16 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by sbond101 // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:59am

This is tough; whenever you negotiate a contract the employer is going to offer you either term for security or maximum dollars without term for flexability - i.e. either the athlete takes the risk and gets paid better for it or the team takes the risk and saves money for taking it. It really bothers me that athletes not named Revis don't seem to understand this and believe they deserve both a top of market rate AND security. That said, we really don't know what Seattle offered him and it could well be that they weren't interested in a long term deal, weren't interested in releasing him, and weren't able to field a team this year that can win a Superbowl - And as a result backed Thomas into a corner; that's why if I think NFL players at that level should sacrifice a small amount of that sweet up front guarantee for an opt out (or make the team options very expensive). The emotional response on the field and the holdout are both pretty childish though - if he didn't want to get into this position he really should have thought about negotiating a contract that was good for him, not just good for maximizing his agent's commission.

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17 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Joe Pancake // Oct 01, 2018 - 11:00am

Earl Thomas has been a joy to watch his entire career. I've got nothing but love for him. I'll give him a pass for a mostly harmless gesture in an obvious moment of supreme frustration.

With that said, I agree with you about the money. I do think players deserve a bigger piece of the overall pie, and I think the union would be wise to try to abolish the franchise player tag in the next CBA, but, in my opinion, Earl Thomas is not an example of a player getting screwed over by the system. He made a lot of money and even if he never plays again he still has a lot of earning potential (endorsements, speaking, analysis, etc.)

There are countless good players who get chewed up and spit out and destroy their bodies before they make any real money. These the players I think get the short end of the stick when it comes to the player payment distribution.

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24 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 01, 2018 - 11:50am

Agreed. I feel bad for Thomas, but this is not a situation that can be "fixed" in a uniform way. Thomas is in year four of a four year deal (unless I misread Spotrac). He was hoping to get an extension prior to hitting free agency, but it appears he and the Seahawks can't agree on his value. I don't see how his situation is indicative of a systematic issue; there will always be players who feel they are more valuable than their current team does and who will be in a position where they need to play out their current contract and risk injury.

Should players get a larger share than they do, on the whole? Yes, I'm on board with that. But like you say, Thomas is not a great example of the players that do get truly screwed by the system.

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35 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:55pm

The problem is, Earl Thomas is not in a free market where he has complete bargaining power. The nature of his rookie deal meant he was being underpaid and had the risk of injury their prior to hitting free agency. Then he signs his pay day, which was going to be lower than what he could have gotten in free agency. Now his fourth year looms and the Seahawks are again using risk of injury in the negotiation to bring down his contract. Plus teams have the franchise tag so it's not even a guarantee risking injury for free agency is worth it.

Bell is losing money on his next contract, but he's absolutely doing the right thing. I hope he doesn't play a down this year.

I also recoil at statements like so and so is making millions playing a game for a living. Leave aside that compensation is not about subjective definitions of "real work" but due to supply and demand, Earl Thomas does more than play a kids game. He spends a ton of time training, doing film work, and sacrificing his body both in the short term and long term. If he has a family, I doubt he gets to see them much and doesn't get the fortune to laze around on the weekends or hang out with friends for Sunday barbecue. These may seem like minor concessions in exchange for millions earned, but they are still things he loses out on being a professional athlete.

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38 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by ChrisS // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:08pm

To quote Mike Tanier "Refusing to either trade or extend the contract of a future Hall of Famer while plunging the rest of the roster into extreme rebuilding mode is the real obscene gesture".

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41 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:18pm

Isn't this more an issue of front office incompetence, rather than malice (Hanlon's razor strikes again), in terms of why the roster is so bad? They still have Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Doug Baldwin. Should they trade those guys?

Also, where's the line for this? As soon as a team passes its peak, should they trade all valuable players who are on their final contract years? Even if they get very little in return?

We always criticize teams for spending too much money on free agents, but then we also criticize them for not giving players currently under contract all they money the player wants. On the whole, more revenue should go to players, but on a player-by-player basis, we'd still be having these disputes, and I don't think either side is completely right or completely wrong.

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44 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:29pm

I think this goes deeper. No one knows when a team has "reached its peak" until well after the fact. It seems revisionist history to suggest the Seahawks peak was that SB loss to NE, but they still made it to the playoffs two years after - they just suffered injuries that derailed their sb hopes. So in hindsight, yes, it would have made sense to trade everyone but Wilson for peak value and start a rebuild - but that would have(and should have) been viewed as a heretical, nonsensical statement.

A second point - if you are in the middle of a rebuild - should you be trading away your stars? I guess in a complete vacuum, maybe - because you don't know when you'll be good again. But then again, rebuilds don't necessarily take 3+ years to do. The Seahawks were in a rebuild in 2011. By 2012 - they were arguably one of the best teams in football.

Should the saints have traded Drew Brees back before their resurgence? Should the cowboys get rid of Demarcus Lawrence?

I think talent matters no matter where you are in the nfl cycle. yes, if your cap number is bloated - it makes sense to wisely cut veterans and trade lesser talent for what value you can get. But stars? Those are hard to find and you should hang on to them as long as you can, circumstances be damned. In the seahawks case - you have a lot of talent already. All it takes is a few more pieces and you are back in contention.

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60 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by mehllageman56 // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:54pm

You keep the quarterback because they usually last longer, unless the quarterback is being carried by the team, a la Mark Sanchez. Also, Seahawks weren't beginning a rebuild in 2011, the rebuild started in 2009, and Carroll was hired in 2010. Just because they made the playoffs with a losing record doesn't mean they weren't rebuilding in 2010. If the Seahawks want to trade Russell Wilson, please send him to the Jets.

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67 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Joe Pancake // Oct 01, 2018 - 3:38pm

Yes, I like Mike Tanier, but a characterization of the Seahawks as in extremely rebuilding mode is off-base. I think they think they can be good this year. And they clearly wanted to resign or trade Thomas but couldn't get what they thought was a good enough return.

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39 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:15pm

I totally agree with your last paragraph.

re: Bell, I actually think he's going to wind up losing money when all is said and done for sitting this year, though I respect his willingness to bet on that. (He'll be giving up somewhere in the $9-10M range this season alone, and I don't think avoiding injury would gain him that much more in guaranteed money. So more power to him, but I think he's made a bad financial decision.)

re: your first paragraph, I agree the real problems are the rookie scale and the franchise tag. That said, this situation - a player in his last year - is unavoidable. And in the same way he doesn't owe the Seahawks any ground in contract negotiations, they don't owe him anything either. And if they can't agree on his value, then here we are.

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42 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:22pm

That's true. In some ways, thats why it makes sense to backload a contract so that teams have an incentive to renegotiate the deal prior to hit becoming a huge albatross in year 4. It was this situation that enabled Flacco to string together a contract extension from his hideous post SB contract. But then, Earl would have risked not getting all of his money if he had suffered an injury in year 2 and the team cut him in year 3.

I guess I'm not sure what the right play for Thomas is in this situation. Hopefully he comes back healthy and gets a big contract because he was playing like the same Earl Thomas we know and love prior this.

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47 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by sbond101 // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:48pm

This dilemma is exactly why he is a legitimate subject for criticism now (kind of like Gronk was); He bargained away value to get cash in the door. If he wanted flexibility now he could have accepted less money up front and got an opt out and put himself in a position of control - to not do that, cash the cheque, and then complain about your lack of control is utterly childish. If you want control you can bargain for it - but don't whine after you signed it away in exchange for money.

With respect to the broader question of the CBA - I think people make a mistake in thinking that the current structure is unfair because the players are paid to little in aggregate. The real issue as far as I can see is the huge distortion that the rookie contract system has put into the market, especially for 2nd to 5th round picks where control last for the majority of the career of an above average player (4 years vs. a typical 6-7 year career). If the CBA could be reorganized so that it didn't overprice veteran talent so substantially compared to rookie talent not only would 2-3 year players be in much more reasonable bargaining positions but veterans would be able to stay in the league longer because they would be able to compete with new players in the draft much more effectively (from a value per cap space point of view). The franchise tag is also in my opinion not expensive enough to serve it's intended purpose.

As for comments about the players getting a bigger chunk of the pie - I think that's a pretty BS point of view - I don't know whether 55% or 59% or 47% is fair and neither do you; It looks to me like the players gave pretty much everything possible away to maximize their percentage of FFR in the negotiation, which is why there are all these other issues with the CBA (unfair discipline processes, huge rookie contract distortions, the franchise tag), that evidence suggests to me that the players currently get more of the pie than is warranted and should trade some piece of it for a system that works better for players in other respects.

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49 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:54pm

I agree with a lot of what you said. The current cba traded a lot of up front cash for more distortions - and the cost of distortions leads to a lot of unintended consequences.

I agreed in principle with a rookie wage scale - the amount being paid to the top rookies prior to the cba was monstrous. That said - the ripple effects were massive and led to a huge degree of inequality. One of the biggest indirect effects of the rookie wage scale was to distort up the prices paid to quarterbacks as they have the ability to last long enough past their rookie contract and second contract.

I'm personally in favor of shorter rookie contracts - set at 2 years with a team option at 3.

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50 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:05pm

Agree. And I'm guilty of reducing the issue to "percent of revenue" earlier in this thread. I think rookie contracts being too long are a big issue - especially when RBs like Bell can then get franchised for two years and have six years of full team control.

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75 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Oct 01, 2018 - 4:30pm

"that evidence suggests to me that the players currently get more of the pie than is warranted and should trade some piece of it for a system that works better for players in other respects."

You were making good points until this sentence. The evidence suggests nothing of the sort. The "slice of the pie" the players deserve has nothing to do with the NFLPA's negotiating ability.

Ownership deserves to make some kind of profit on top of the costs of running a team, and exactly how much is fair can be debated. But it's clear that the vast majority of the value in the NFL as a whole is due to the players past and present (and individual team values are built on that). The players add probably 95+% of the overall value, with coaching staffs worth the rest. So the players deserve as close to 95% of the profits as possible.

Team owners don't add any value at all, and in fact provide negative value more often than not. Dan Snyder by himself makes the NFL worth significantly less.

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81 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by mrt1212 // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:02pm

Amen Amen Amen!

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83 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:05pm

Determining percentage of value is a pretty nebulous exercise. I'm not entirely sure what percentage it is, but 95+% seems extreme. Short of a few iconic qbs, most of a team's market value is determined by individual efforts across a large swath of people. Hard to know how much goes to the head coach, the strength and conditioning staff, the video assistants, etc etc.

I've heard similar arguments against CEO pay and how CEO's rarely contribute to the company's well being than the average janitor does(hyperbole intended).

We can debate just how much value ownership brings, but they do bear responsibilities that aren't as simple as hire gm and go on a vacation. The day to day operations are still a business, of which the owner has to be aware of. He has to know who to hire, how long a leash to give, how to carefully monitor ongoing performance and do his best to setup the team for success. I don't know if all of that amounts to 5 % of the business - but my point is its kind of unknowable.

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87 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:12pm

This is true, and I went further in my assumptions than I really meant to in my previous comment.

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90 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by mrt1212 // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:37pm

I'd like to enter in the plight of several NFL teams who have not performed anywhere near well for years and years and yet the ownership still gets a fat slice of revenue for basically hiring the FO and going on vacation. At least with other companies ownership and stewardship can change hands if it gets bad enough. There simply isn't a good mechanism to wash out losers from the system in the NFL when it comes to both ownership and front office.

My memories of the Seahawks aren't going to center around Paul Allen. The product on the field doesn't hang in the balance because of his lymphoma coming back. Yes, you need guys to run the business but to think that the majority of fan value is derived by the involvement of the owner? Don't buy it. It's all reward and no risk in aggregate and specific for owners.

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84 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by sbond101 // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:08pm

BS. The best indicator that exists for the value that a group of people provide in an organization like the NFL - which is an amalgam of notable labour (the players, coaches & GM's), and distribution/promotion & capital - is what each side is able to leverage in a negotiation. The current owners are being paid for the risk they took in capitalizing the league, convincing taxpayers to pay for their stadiums (an effort worth about as much each time executed as 10-20 years of total player spending for the team), and negotiating media distribution contracts so lucrative that the networks that broadcast the NFL lose money doing it using it as a loss-leader. If they players and coaches were delivering all the value then they could have and likely would have established parallel leagues (e.g. WHA in hockey that collapsed within 10 years despite including many of the best players and coaches in the game). You can see that individual players mean less to the value of the NFL than stars do in other major sports leagues in that as independent marketing properties they attract a lot less money than players in the NBA (for example) do. A lot of other factors besides relative value influence negations at the margins (e.g. +/- 10% FFR), but if you really think the distribution of value contribution is 95%/5% in the NFL I think your totally wrong, the statement is outright crazy, and that the evidence - the lack of competing football leagues over the last 40 years - is incontrovertible.

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86 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:11pm

Is this disagreement basically like a descriptive vs a proscriptive grammarian? Seems like we're coming from entirely different schools of thought.

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91 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by mrt1212 // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:47pm

The risk they took in capitalizing the league? They are crying poverty to municipalities to fund their billion dollar enterprise at this point. All the work of capitalizing the league is done, over, gone. Paying a couple bil to collect basically a sure thing in distributed network revenue isn't putting up a ton of risk, especially when the portfolios of investment make that 2 bil something like 10-20% of new ownership net worth.

There are much deeper structural issues within the NFL labor market, such as the hyper specialization of the career at the exclusion of anything else (both player and coach) that constrict labor mobility and leverage. That there are no competing leagues to the NFL isn't because the NFL simply does it better - it's because of labor being tight AND working every rent-seeking move they could to ensure their station.

I agree, 95-5% is hyperbolic but every owner in the NFL could drop dead tomorrow simultaneously and the show would go on. 1000 players locked out or on strike before 2020? That would have a much more profound impact. The lack of leverage for labor is that capital has much deeper pockets for what amounts to a vanity project for them.
I liken it to contractors and home owners - a billionaire can afford to take chances in stiffing contractors on their homes and drawing out a legal fight - a cash strapped home owner can't and are often the ones being fleeced.

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95 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 6:09pm

its an example of a monopolisticstic, semi monopsonitic market. The issue is - the owners are 32, the players are hundreds and each has incentives that are not completely aligned.

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97 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by sbond101 // Oct 01, 2018 - 6:34pm

Do we really have to discuss the fact that current owners either paid for the value produced in capitalizing the league (when they wrote a ~$2 billion cheque) or inherited it and paid tax on the inheritance? The lack of a competitive league indicates there are huge barriers to entry (the cost of stadiums, the value of the distribution network, the value of the brand, and contracts constraining ~3,000 of the best football players in the world), all of which have been created and are perpetuated by the league. The fact that you think the business practices that the owners engaged in to get these assets (e.g. fleecing taxpayers) are illegitimate does not negate the value of the assets. (see the XFL as a recent example of a league that collapsed quickly because of it's inability to get by these barriers to entry).

The argument about the owners dropping dead is a bit misplaced, the real question is "if the assets the owners contributed to the league disappeared tomorrow what would the franchises be worth" - the combined teams are worth somewhere around $60 billion at the moment. If the TV deal was gone and had to be renegotiated the league would be worth a lot less as the rights today are very likely worth less than when they were bought because of ratings declines, if the stadiums were gone (or the operating contracts were in some cases) that would easily ding the value >$10 billion, the NFL brand itself is probably worth $2-$5 billion, the CBA is easily worth $2 billion. You can argue about the precise value of the various assets the owners contribute, but the long term assets, which are owned exclusively by the franchise owners, are definitely responsible for a sizeable chunk of the current market value of the league.

I think part of the disconnect here is the referenced concept of "fan value". I don't know what "fan value" is, or why it's related to what players should be paid. Players are paid based on their ability to generate profits (now and in the future) for those that host the league.

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114 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by morganja // Oct 02, 2018 - 10:05am

Fortunately, there is an easy answer to this question. Is the value of the teams sky-rocketing? If so, over the long-term, in a free market system, there would be competition. If there are not rival leagues starting up, then the only possible answer is that the owners are engaged in anti-competitive practices. Any 'value' that accrues to the owners from anti-competitive practices is by definition a net loss to their fans.

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119 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 02, 2018 - 12:31pm

Not necessarily. Monopolies eat a portion of consumer vwelfare. Whether they've eaten all of the growth in welfare assumes the fan experience has remained unchanged over time and all of the value is captured by the producers side.

I doubt that is the case.

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128 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by morganja // Oct 02, 2018 - 6:59pm

Not at all. The portion of 'welfare' that accrues to the fans is not from the monopoly. It is from whatever value the ownership/management adds. The monopoly profits are that additional amount that fans are forced to pay above the free market level for the same experience. That is to say, if the monopoly was ended, the fans would receive the same amount of 'welfare' they do now at a reduced cost.

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129 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 02, 2018 - 8:00pm

I actually misread your original statement, so I apologize.

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100 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by RobotBoy // Oct 01, 2018 - 7:39pm

Sacrificing the rookies was a terrible move and has come back to bite them. The average career is far less than six or seven years and a minority of players will not see free agency. Yet the established players wanted to maximize their profits in free agency and basically sold out players entering the league. What happened, of course, is that players on rookie contracts became far more valuable, with their criminally depressed wages undercutting free agents. Anyone could have predicted this but the union reps were greedy and shortsighted (as well as probably corrupt). The same exact thing happened in baseball and it's about to bring on lockout or strike. The smart thing to do in both sports is to extend the union to the minor leagues (in football this is known as 'college') so that players are getting both compensated and protected from an earlier age. I'm not going to hold my breath.

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109 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Steve in WI // Oct 01, 2018 - 9:58pm

Yeah, I have a very difficult time blaming the Seahawks for expecting Thomas to play out the last year of the contract that he signed when he was a free agent. This is totally different from a rookie contract or a franchise tag situation.

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8 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Cythammer // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:40am

It wasn't mentioned by anyone above, so for those who missed the game, I thought I'd mention that the Colts also burned a timeout trying to get the Texans to jump offside before their failed fourth down attempt. Obviously, if you are going to go for it, using a TO there is absurd, since with only 24 seconds left being able to stop the clock is extremely valuable. Reich's decision making was not good there.

However, while I think it was a bad call, I suspect it will also be far blown out of proportion by lots of the media and many fans. It's not the worst decision a coach has ever made.

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28 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by nat // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:16pm

Certainly not the worst play call ever. It's a matter of weighing the chances of success, and each team's chances of scoring if the play went their way.

It didn't work. And I agree burning the timeout to try to get a cheap first down was probably a poor probability trade off. But by no means was it the nutty play call that some would insist it was.

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76 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Oct 01, 2018 - 4:31pm

Definitely just run-of-the-mill ineptitude, nothing spectacular

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9 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by jtr // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:48am

This was my first chance to sit down and watch a whole game of Darnold, and he very much looked like you'd expect a rookie to look against the exceptional Jags defense. The coverage was great, and the pressure was coming so quickly that he usually didn't have time to look to his second read, let alone actually find somebody open. His <50% completion percentage is a little bit deceiving; it's not like he was scattershot, just that on a lot of plays, all he could possibly do was stay alive for just long enough to throw it away.

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62 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by mehllageman56 // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:59pm

Watching the highlights there were a couple of plays he made that were excellent (the two completions by the sideline, one of them to Kearse). I do think he had a hard time reading the Jaguars' defense, because they do some weird not exactly zone not exactly man things delineated in this Gang Green Nation article: https://www.ganggreennation.com/2018/9/28/17913366/why-jaguars-coverages...
Hopefully he has an easier time against Denver; while their defense is also very stout, they will be coming off a Monday night game. Then again, ten days off wasn't enough to produce a decent effort against Jacksonville.

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11 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Joe Pancake // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:51am

"At that point, with a kicker who has missed twice already, they do my ultimate pet peeve and PLAY FOR THE LONG FIELD GOAL. They run on first, run on second, clock on third."

This is a pet peeve of mine as well, but that's not exactly what happened in this situation. They *threw* on first down in that sequence (six-yard completion to Baldwin). Then they ran for 0 yards, and then they were forced to spike it. So, I guess you could argue that they should have thrown on 2nd down, as well, but if Wilson gets sacked there (a nontrivial possibility -- it's the Seahaws) then they have no chance at a field goal.

Plus, the run had been gouging the Cards all game. It doesn't seem like such a bad move to me to try to gain some yards on the ground and then clock it and try for a 40-45 yard field goal. The likely worst-case scenario is that you get stuffed and have to settle for a long field goal with a kicker, who, despite earlier misses, is probably still pretty good at long field goals. (And that's what happened, and it still worked.)

Of all the things to take issue with in this Seahawks game, I think the drive at the end of the game is very low on the list.

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45 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by comfect // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:32pm

A fair point, but the completion to Baldwin was also a continuation of the problems the offense had been having all game: excessive short passing to Baldwin short of the sticks and (in this case) inbounds. I would have liked to see at least an attempt to actually pick up the first down or throw to the sideline rather than the dumpoff.

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112 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by BJR // Oct 02, 2018 - 6:06am

I thought the Cardinals also screwed up badly by not using their own timeouts. Once Seattle got to the edge of range they had to be thinking about leaving some time to respond after the field goal attempt. Hell, Janikowski had already missed twice, there was a decent likelihood of getting the ball back with excellent field position and having a crack at the win if he missed again.

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64 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Vincent Verhei // Oct 01, 2018 - 3:30pm

"This is a pet peeve of mine as well, but that's not exactly what happened in this situation. They *threw* on first down in that sequence (six-yard completion to Baldwin). Then they ran for 0 yards, and then they were forced to spike it. So, I guess you could argue that they should have thrown on 2nd down, as well, but if Wilson gets sacked there (a nontrivial possibility -- it's the Seahaws) then they have no chance at a field goal."

You're right, I got some of my plays mixed up, but a 6-yard pass that burns clock is no better than a run anyway. In fact, I'd probably have preferred an incompletion. They had a first down with 44 seconds left and went short catch, run, clock, field goal. That's awful.

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77 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Oct 01, 2018 - 4:38pm

When an incompletion is better than the completion, something is seriously wrong. The NFL overall seems to be much better about this than it was 10 years ago, but it's always soul-killing to see it

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12 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by drobviousso // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:53am

Has Ben ever looked as bad as the last couple of games while healthy? He's not nursing some injury is he? Feels like its got to be his last year in Pittsburgh. And for all the good things that continuity bring, I wouldn't mind seeing the entire defensive staff let go at the end of this year. Their inability to find and develop talent is pretty clear at this point, isn't it?

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34 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by jtr // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:53pm

There's a decent bit of talent on the defense, but the coaching staff is doing a terrible job of putting them in positions to succeed. I agree that they need major turnover there. The defense has generally been disorganized since Butler took over--they have three 12-men penalties on defense already this year, for instance. Miscommunications have been a problem for Butler's entire tenure so far, and they never seem to quite figure out how to fix it. And they keep doing stuff that makes no sense, like constantly dropping their edge rushers into coverage, where they are clueless. This is Butler's fourth year as defensive coordinator, and they're still making the same mistakes as four seasons ago. Time to move on.

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18 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by johonny // Oct 01, 2018 - 11:06am

Mia-NE Meh. Remember those early 90s Bills/Dolphins games where every year the media declared it the year Miami moves past the Bills. Well, they never moved past Jim Kelly's Bills. I watch about 1 Pats game a year. I made it almost until half time before turning this one off. My favorite Miami Internet(s) thread yesterday was Miami fans talking about what they were doing in the second half instead of bothering to continue to watch this game since the game was unwatchable. I won't make the mistake of tuning in to see Patriots football again this year. Gase record in national televised road games is not good. Indeed this wasn't even their worse loss in that situation in his brief stint. Gase is at his best winning close games against bad teams, but his roster just isn't good enough to beat good games on the road very often and so he doesn't. AFCleast update. 1) NE- deep in the third quarter of week 4, Miami, New York, and Buffalo had all failed to score a single point this week. All of them were shut out until garbage time. All of them. No, the Pats aren't going to lose the AFCleast. They will win it by 2 or 3 games margin because the other teams in this division are just terrible. 2) Miami-in 2013 Miami was 3-0. They finished 8-8 mostly due to a terrible oline. This year their oline is just horrible. Three starters are now out and there is no one to replace them (They've got 3 extra QBs though). They'll finish 9-7 at best and that's only if they find a center that can execute an NFL snap. 3) New York- The Jags are good. There's wins on their schedule eventually. 4) The Bills-going to have a hard time getting behind Arizona in the standings for that first pick.

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19 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by robbbbbb // Oct 01, 2018 - 11:06am

I was just as frustrated as Vince with the Seahawks and their terrible game management. It was painful to watch.

Brian Schottenheimer seems determined to turn Russell Wilson into Sam Bradford. You have one of the best deep throwers in the game, and you're making him throw five yard hooks on 3rd and 6! Unbelievable.

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26 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Joe Pancake // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:12pm

I hated the Schottenheimer hiring at the time, and it looks even worse now. Why coordinators who weren't very good in their first (or second or third) go-rounds continually get new jobs is beyond me -- especially with so many other teams finding new smart innovative coaches.

With that said, I'm not ready to call for his head yet. Contrary to popular opinion (even among Seahawks fans) Pete Carroll has actually been very adaptable when it comes to offensive scheme since coming to Seattle. I think he's done a very good job of doing what works best on O given his personnel. So, I'm willing to give him and his handpicked crew the benefit of the doubt for now. But, jeez, it is ugly to watch right now.

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43 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by mrt1212 // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:25pm

Embracing the Read Option was nice. But man, my rope is coming to an end with the same problems still cropping up 3 years later. And if you think he's done whats best on offensive given the personnel...well that calls the personnel into question. Granted last year the running game was an obvious net detriment so obviously they were gonna sling it more, even if not out of necessity (but it was partially due to that). Then you factor in the flubs of Harvin and Graham. I don't know man, I am ready to see different.

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48 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Joe Pancake // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:48pm

"well that calls the personnel into question"

I agree with this 100%. The moves the Seahawks have made over the past few years -- particularly on the O-line -- are starting to make their historically great team building years of 2010-2012 look like a lot of luck.

However, the Seahawks were the no. 1 team in the league by DVOA in 2015 (both offense and overall), and last year was the first time in five years they did not win at least one playoff game. All teams (except the Patriots) go through *some* ebbs and flows.

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51 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by duh // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:20pm

A lot of luck or the work of Scot McCloughan? And I recognize it could well be both.

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116 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by bravehoptoad // Oct 02, 2018 - 10:56am

Ding ding! I'd go with #2.

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21 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Ben // Oct 01, 2018 - 11:22am

As for the Colts 4th down call, isn't the general consensus around here that bad teams should go for high variance choices and good teams should go for low variance choices? The Colts are not a good team (granted, neither are the Texans). Sure the AFC South looks weak again, but is winning a bad division, just to get rolled in the playoffs all that great a reason to play it safe? I certainly am not suggesting to try to lose games, but as a sage wise-man once said "you play to win the game!"

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37 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:02pm

I agree with this. It was not the pure math play, but such decisions should always take into account discount factors. For bad teams, they should swing from generally risk averse to more risk neutral/ risk loving.

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63 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by mehllageman56 // Oct 01, 2018 - 3:04pm

The Jaguars just destroyed the Jets (seriously, that game was worse than the score), and the Titans just beat the defending champs. Perhaps the Colts and Texans aren't good, but both Jacksonville and Tennessee will be in the top half of DVOA this week, and probably the top ten.

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66 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Ben // Oct 01, 2018 - 3:37pm

The Jags are almost certainly the best team in the division. I have to admit I haven't seen/read much about yesterdays game. If Bortles plays competently (which he has in 3 out of 4 games this year), they'll easily win the division.

As for the Titans beating the Eagles, the Colts were quite close to beating them last week. And currently, the Eagles aren't looking like the same team as last year. The Titans are almost certainly better than the Colts or Texans, but squeaking out 3 point wins over the Texans and Eagles, instead of 3 and 4 point losses like the Colts doesn't really impress me. The Titans just have the smell of a 9-7 or 10-6 type team who may snag a wildcard, but won't be particularly competitive in the post-season.

Heck, It took the Titans making a similar overtime gamble as the Colts to win yesterday. I would say it was a riskier gamble, actually. If they fail to convert the 4th down, they lose immediately. The Colts at least had in theory still had a chance at the tie after they failed their fourth down attempt.

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68 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 3:42pm

I agree the Jags are the best team in the division, but they are higher variance than the Titans, which is a direct result of having Bortles as your qb. His lows are Gabbertian, which means the Jags can lose to anyone at any time. Seriously - if the Jags got defeated 24-0 by the bills, would anyone be that shocked?

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111 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by justanothersteve // Oct 01, 2018 - 11:32pm

The irony being that if something happens to Mariota (and he's missed time every season, including this one), the Titans have a 100% chance of their backup being Gabbertian.

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69 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 01, 2018 - 3:46pm

The Titans feel like a team with a good record and a poor DVOA. You still bank those wins, but this is 10-6 team that's 8-8 quality. Not every team will have their worst game of the year against Tennessee.

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22 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by TomC // Oct 01, 2018 - 11:23am

The oddest thing to me about Trubisky's big day is that he was pretty much the same player he was in the previous three games (when people were ready to bench him for Chase Daniel), just a little bit better. He still did some of the bad things he has done every week (sail a ball over a wide-open Taylor Gabriel, and seriously, he has done that at least once every single week, throw a screen pass into a crowd of defenders) and some of the good things (avoid the rush and run for 30 yards, drop a 25-yard throw over a defender). The primary difference is that so many guys were running so open that he could miss one or two and still have a huge day. As a Bears fan, I would like to attribute that to Nagy's scheme finally clicking, but I fear it's more that TB's defense is really bad and had a bad day even by their bad standards.

Still, if Trubisky and Nagy's scheme both keep making slow but steady progress (that includes occasional 6-TD games), and Mack doesn't get hurt, this team is going to be scary in December.

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27 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Roch Bear // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:16pm

Agree that the massive QB stat line was mostly due to the Tampa D + Nagy + Oline + receivers. Still, it is very comforting to see that 'bit' of improvement. The Bear fans should be hoping that Trubisky's struggles are because he was/is in serious need of experience (he only started one season in college) and good coaching and is slowly growing into a major producer. I don't see enough from him yet to think that he will get there by the end of this year, but who knows.

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31 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by TecmoBoso // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:34pm

I'm not sure I've ever seen guys more wide open than the Bears receivers were on nearly every play. It seemed like on every drop back, no one was within 8 yards of whoever Trubisky was throwing to on that play... every single play. It looked like the Bucs were playing 9 on 11 or something... it was so surreal.

Taking a larger view of the NFC, this Eagles/Vikings game appears to be a huge game for both teams. The Eagles probably have more wiggle room with their division, but they could find themselves in a much tougher divisional race than I think most were expecting if they lose and especially Washington wins. Meanwhile, the Vikings, with a loss, might have to start thinking about the Wild Card if the Packers also win (Bears are on a bye). But a much bigger game for both the Eagles and Vikings divisional hopes than I think most everyone was expecting... this looked more like a home field/bye week decider/tiebreaker when the schedule came out.

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54 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:26pm

Regarding the openness of the receivers, as you and TomC talk about, it was awesome - and I hope it's a function of Nagy's scheming. Two weeks ago, I recall reading some NextGenStats info about the other second year QB in a Reid/Nagy offense, Mahomes, only having 9% of his attempts to receivers who were within a yard of any defender.

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108 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Duke // Oct 01, 2018 - 9:40pm

While it's absolutely true that Tampa couldn't stay with the Bears' receivers, going into the game that would lead me to expect a 3 TD game for Trubisky. Not FIVE TOUCHDOWNS IN THE FIRST HALF. He looked much better than I've ever seen.

And still! Trubisky didn't look perfect. Especially early, he was inaccurate on some throws. But he seemed to settle down and cut down on the mistakes, and the offense just clicked. He even made some good throws (there was one to, I think Robinson?, who was pretty well covered but he laid it in a great place for Robinson to make the catch).

The thing that really got me in this game is how much the Bears offense moved the ball. What Scott said was amazing to me, but it matched my impression from the game: the Bears had 5 TD drives of 70 or more yards before halftime. I've seen Bears teams win 48-10 (or so) before, but it was usually because the defense caused turnovers and either scored themselves or got the offense close enough that they could stumble in. That wasn't this. The Bears had 3 TOs, but only one in the first half, and that gave them the ball on their own 9. The other ones didn't come until they were already up 38-0. This offense went up and down the field at will. That's a different beast than, say, the Lovie teams.

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110 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Steve in WI // Oct 01, 2018 - 10:05pm

I’m just happy to finally see a great game from Trubisky. Maybe it’s a sign of things to come or maybe it’s an aberration, but it gives me a little more hope that Pace might not have gotten it wrong.

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23 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by big10freak // Oct 01, 2018 - 11:30am

Rodgers was hacked off after the game and took veiled swipes at McCarthy several times. Purely guesswork but could be that 12 is feeling his playing mortality and is not going to remain patient with what he perceives as MM's deficiencies.

On the defense Allen was both wild and confused sometimes on the same play.

Packer punter continues look good while the long snapper looks erratic. So count Gute 1 for 2 on odd draft pick selections

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36 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by dank067 // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:57pm

You know how they use the expression "burn the tape" to describe awful performances where a team just didn't do anything right to the point that they'd almost be better off not reviewing the film and just moving onto the next game?

The Packers defense should burn the tape of this game. Not because of anything they did, but because the Bills offense was so incompetent that I don't know if you can end up taking anything of value from the game. Yes, you guys dominated, but no need to waste any time dwelling on it or celebrating it—the rest of the schedule is against NFL offenses.

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125 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Arkaein // Oct 02, 2018 - 4:21pm

It wasn't a pretty offensive game, but even though I had some issues with McCarthy's playcalling late (just run the ball in the second half when the D is dominating and you have a 19 point lead), I have a hard time pinning many problems on McCarthy.

Aaron Jones should be starting, and getting the most carries. However that wouldn't fix Allison dropping multiple passes, or Rodgers throwing 2-3 potential INTs (not even including his actual INT, which was deflected twice).

It was a similar deal last week against Washington, play calling isn't going to fix your usually sure-handed slot receiver dropping 3rd and 4th down conversions.

The last 2 weeks have had a lot of receivers getting open, followed by dropped passes or Rodgers being just a bit off. I feel like these thing will work themselves out as Rodgers continues to get his knee healthier and is able to practice more. He looks like he should be close to 100% coming out of the bye in a few weeks.

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25 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Mike W // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:12pm

Fantasy advice: stream any D against Buffalo

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32 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by TecmoBoso // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:35pm

And any QB against the Bucs.

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30 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by ChrisS // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:25pm

Vince says "There was a weird play right before that Elliott screen pass. Prescott dropped back, pinballed off a couple of defenders, tried to keep his balance, and eventually fell to his knee for a sack. But when he stood up, Romeo Okwara knocked him right back down, an easy 15-yard penalty." When I watched it it was not obvious that Prescott was touched by the defense, especially with how quickly he bounced back up, and the whistle was not blown until after the final "illegal" hit by Okwara. This was a semi-competent performance by the Lions so I am somewhat encouraged.

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33 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 01, 2018 - 12:50pm

The Lions getting a screwjob by the refs in a game in Dallas has a long and disreputable history.

Dean Blandino says "hi" from Stephen Jones' party bus.

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40 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by mrt1212 // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:18pm

Man, that Hawks win over the Cards...missed most of the Dallas game due to a wonderful vacation and first game back I get this? THIS?

One of the ugliest undeserved wins I can remember and that's something given the many ugly undeserved wins the Hawks have taken in the past 3 years.

Schotty...what are you even doing?!

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46 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 1:42pm

I've always been a Dalton apologist. I know hes got good talent at receiver and I know the falcons defense is pretty awful right now, but that was still a gutty performance and one where Dalton should be lauded. Sussing out Dalton's place in the nfl hierarchy is difficult. He's got a pretty low ceiling and hes also quite high variance - making him a pretty weird qb.

I pose it to everyone out there, how does he compare with Matthew Stafford. Or Alex Smith? Or Kirk Cousins.

Also - not sure what to say about Calvin Ridley. I was blown away with how good he is.

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52 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:20pm

I would take all of your list before Dalton.

Weighted against cap hit, I would probably still do that, but there's at least some question.

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53 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:26pm

If we are going to consider respective cap figures, I'd rather have Dalton than Stafford. With Cousins, I'm a bit on the fence, but leaning to Cousins. Between all of them, I'd probably take Smith

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55 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:32pm

Per Spotrac, the cap hits of the four in question are:

Stafford $26.5M
Cousins $24M
Smith $18.4M
Dalton $16.3M

Of those, I'm not sure. I think in terms of pure QB quality, it goes:
Cousins
Stafford
Dalton
Smith

But I don't think there are huge gaps anywhere. So I might be inclined to take Dalton. It's really hard to say, though.

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59 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by BJR // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:49pm

Dalton had a poor year in 2017 when his offensive line was awful. But for two years prior to that he had been a legitimate top tier QB according to DYAR. In 2015 the Bengals were primed for Super Bowl contention before he got hurt.

He's not good enough to overcome bad surroundings, but he's plenty good enough to win with in the right situation. Where that ranks him I'm not exactly sure, but it's somewhere between 'middle-of-the-pack' and 'very good'.

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70 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 01, 2018 - 3:49pm

My biggest concern with Dalton is the Bengals seem to underperform in big moments. And not just lose to good teams -- they look bad on offense against teams they should beat. I don't see him elevating the Bengals.

I think if you plugged him into Detroit or Washington, he'd underperform Stafford and Cousins. Those guys prosper in spite of their teams, not because of them. Smith is similarly playoff-snakebit, but his games haven't been as dire.

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93 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by dbt // Oct 01, 2018 - 6:03pm

Low ceiling and high variance sounds like peak Rex Grossman, tbh.

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105 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by yavimaya_eldred // Oct 01, 2018 - 9:23pm

Based on talent, I'd take Stafford and maybe Cousins over him. Based on contracts, they're all close enough talent wise that I'd take Dalton, the cheapest of the four (Stafford is far more talented than the rest, but that contract is massive).

I've also long been a Dalton apologist, he's a pretty good QB. The arguments against him all seem to center around him underachieving with the talent around him, but that has always been a BS line of reasoning. Green is an incredibly good receiver but has made weird mental errors throughout his career (fumbles, drops, giving up on routes) that seem to bite them at the wrong time. Jones didn't become great until he left Cincy, Sanu was always just okay, Eifert is always hurt, the backs haven't been very good, and the olines have gotten worse and worse throughout his career. He's pretty much never had more than two good weapons to throw to at any given time.

This is gonna sound silly, but I remember an ESPN analyst (forget which one, maybe Krasnik) saying on a MLB podcast a few years ago that there's long been a well-know scouting bias in baseball against redheads for no reason other than "they sunburn easily and look funny", and I think Dalton has gotten crap for most of his career for a similar reason. He's perfectly cromulent.

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56 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Pat // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:34pm

Al Riveron told PFT after the Cleveland-Raiders game that he basically used the 2 angles in combination to determine the ball was short: the first to determine when he was down ("when Hyde’s wrist was done, his elbow also was down") and then the second to determine he was short ("when Hyde’s wrist was down (and thus the elbow was done), the ball was well short of the line to gain").

I seriously have no idea what the hell he's talking about, because you can use the exact same damn logic using the two existing angles and it's clearly past. I'd say "maybe he just screwed up seeing when Hyde was down in the one shot" because Hyde sticks his arm out like he's bracing it on the ground *before he hits the ground*, but I'm pretty damn sure the NFL has synchronized camera angles... although maybe Riveron doesn't?

The actual referee's spot looks really damn close to where it actually was. There's absolutely no way that should've been overturned.

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80 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Oct 01, 2018 - 4:53pm

I'm pretty sure the NFL does not use synced videos, you just get the one at a time on that ridiculous little screen they use.

I thought the ref probably got the call right in the end, and I thought his explanation makes sense just fine. Going with the call on the field would also have been acceptable, it was just really close.

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115 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Pat // Oct 02, 2018 - 10:16am

"I'm pretty sure the NFL does not use synced videos, you just get the one at a time on that ridiculous little screen they use."

If the NFL doesn't used sync videos, that's insane. I mean, seriously insane. These are millisecond frame rates we're talking about, you could synchronize them a hundred different ways.

"and I thought his explanation makes sense just fine. "

His explanation was fine, it's just wrong, and again, it's insane to think they used something like that to try to cross-reference the angles rather than actual hardware.

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130 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Alternator // Oct 02, 2018 - 9:05pm

If it's really close, then by definition it should not be acceptable to overturn: refs are only supposed to overturn when faced with indisputable evidence. That's clearly lacking, therefore, the Browns got screwed.

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57 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:41pm

Any Bears fan want to comment on where this defense ranks compared to some of Lovie's vintage versions? On paper, hard to see it having the same star power as Urlacher, Briggs, Harris, Ogunleye, Brown, Tillman and Vasher.

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61 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 01, 2018 - 2:58pm

Hard to say, this early. Mack's prime is arguably as high as Urlacher's (Urlacher's slam-dunk HOF case is because he stayed at a very high level for a decade), and being an edge rusher is more valuable than a middle linebacker. Harris was a monster when healthy, but I actually think Hicks is close. Ogunleye and Brown were good, but not great, DEs. Tillman, Vasher, and Brown - though I'm not sure Brown overlapped with Tillman and Vasher much - were better than the current secondary, though Eddie Jackson looks like he could be the best safety they've had since the 1980s.

The summary here is that I think they could be as good or better than the vintage Urlacher/Lovie defenses, in large part because an elite edge rusher lifts up all the other players in ways a great MLB does.

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71 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 01, 2018 - 3:52pm

It's been four games. You've played one good offense and that was when the Fitzmagic period was ending. Let's give it a bit before we start celebrating the return of the '84-'86 Bears.

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79 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 01, 2018 - 4:49pm

"You"? As far as I know, theslotlook is not a Bears fan (and he certainly doesn't play for the team).

Also, there's a big gulf between "the best Lovie defenses" and the mid-80's Bears.

And regardless, I think it's fair to look at the team that was #1 in defensive DVOA heading into a game in which they held a top-five DVOA offense to ten points and ask "is this team as good as recent #1 defenses by the same franchise?".

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120 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 02, 2018 - 1:18pm

There's not, really.

The Bears were 'Da Bears from 1984-1988. Lovie's 2005 (-19%, #1), 2006 (-20%, #2) and 2012 (-27%, #1) teams were actually better than the 1988 Bears (the last year of the Monsters). Only Jauron's 2001 team was even close to Lovie's best teams since the 1986 defense (-34%, #1 -- the farthest back we have DVOA scores).

Lovie's peak teams were Peppers-Urlacher-Briggs-Jennings-Tillman and the recently deceased Chris Conte, and Harris-Johnson-Urlacher-Briggs-Tillman-Vasher.
The 1988 Bears were McMichael-Hampton-Dent-Rivera-Singletary-Jackson-Duerson.

This year is MACK-Smith-Travathan-Amukamara-Jackson?

I don't think my analysis is uncalled for. OP asked if this is as good as Lovie's best teams, and an early reply suggested it was, or better. "Or better" is the 1988 Bears. That's the next best defense in the DVOA era. So that's the comparison I made.

Unadjusted their numbers are like Lovie's 2012 team, but I think opponent adjustments may be cruel. I also remember how that defense tackled against Green Bay (it didn't).

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121 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 02, 2018 - 2:46pm

First, I think there's a pretty sizable difference between the -34% defensive DVOA in 1986 and the -19% and -20% in 2005 and 2006 (obviously, the historically underappreciated 2012 defense, at -27%, splits the difference). The 14% difference between 1986 and 2006 is close to the difference between last year's Jaguars (-16.2%, 1st) and last year's Bears (-1.5%, 14th).

Second, your initial retort said "'84-'86", so including 1988 here is moving the goalposts.

Third, we don't have 1984 and 1985 yet. They're presumably on par with 1986, but that's far from a sure thing. Could be better, could be worse.

Fourth, you left Akiem Hicks off your list of current players, when other posters have pointed out that he's pretty clearly their second best defender and arguably better than Tommie Harris was.

You're right that opponent adjustments will probably be a net negative for this season, so far. The Seahawks and Cardinals have bad offenses, which offsets the Buccaneers' good one, and the Packers have been kind of mediocre.

Also, I think "you've" comes off as way more combative than you might have intended (especially when you directed at someone who's not even a Bears fan).

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122 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 02, 2018 - 3:08pm

All I said was that we should wait and see if this keeps up.

That comment got 5 nastygrams.

I don't think I'm the one in this conversation who needs some perspective. Do we really think the Jets and Browns also have historically-competent defenses?

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123 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 02, 2018 - 3:40pm

Your initial reply was quite flippant ("let's give it a bit before we start celebrating") and combative (use of "you've"). If that's all you were trying to say, I agree with you, but your comment gave off a nasty vibe to me.

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124 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 02, 2018 - 4:04pm

Referring to the team is combative.

I'm being gaslit. That's the only explanation.

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127 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 02, 2018 - 5:57pm

Oh give me a break - what else is "you've only played four games" supposed to be, if not combative against the poster? The "you" in question was theslotlook, not the team. (If you meant the team, why not say "the Bears have" or "they've"?)

You also then put forth a strawman argument (he didn't say the mid-80s Bears, he said the Lovie Smith Bears).

And given the responses you got, I'm not the only one who read your post that way.

You're not being gaslit, the words you used are right here on this page.

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131 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 02, 2018 - 10:44pm

Why don't you put more words in my mouth.

You guys are seriously unstable about your fandom. It took a quarter season to lose your minds and start raging against shadow criticism. You guys are worse winners than you are losers. Man, I didn't think I could root for the Pack, but I hope Rodgers stomps 'da bears into the mud with his gimpy knee.

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132 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 03, 2018 - 12:03am

I've been hesitant to wade into this one, but I am the original OP so...here goes.

For the record - I am a colts fan - hopefully most people who have seen me on these forums know. I sort of posed the question because I find the bears defensive renaissance somewhat forecastable and yet still quite impressive. Unlike prior Bears teams, I wasn't all that familiar with this defense so I posed it to the fans out there to get their objective view. It was mentioned that this is all based on the four games played thus far. Yes I am aware that 4 game samples are more likely to mislead than illuminate. That wasn't the point. I didn't ask where this falls all time, I said how does it look so far compared to the past.

Most of the posts I think have been fairly honest in their assessment. We can question how for real the players other than Mack are, but that wasn't the purpose. It was just to gauge how it compares through four games.

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133 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 03, 2018 - 9:24am

I'm not putting words in your mouth, I am pulling quotes from your own posts.

Do I hope this Bears defense stays at -30% defensive DVOA? Of course. Will it? Almost certainly not. There's a solid chance they hit -20%, which puts them on par with some of the best Lovie defenses, which is what theslotlook asked. My overall hope for this season is to sneak into a wild card slot (I think the Packers, with their own improved defense, take the division).

Not a single Bears fan on this thread said they are as good as the 1984-86 Bears, but you still felt the need to get snarky that we're huge homers who can't get past rose-colored glasses.

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92 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Chip // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:51pm

No one is saying ‘85 Bears. But I’d put them in the 2015 and 2016 Lovie Smith team defense category.

Through four games, they’re averaging 4+ sacks, 3+ turnovers, allowing 16 first downs, 300 total yards. They’ve played two and half franchise QBs: A. Rodgers (HoF), R. Wilson (HoF?), and Fitzmagic.

The reality is that these games haven’t been close. The defense lights it up in the first half and then more of less coasts in the 2H (Seahawks, Bucs, and Packers unfortunately). The only time the Bears weren’t leading (ARI), the outcome felt inevitable even when they were down 16-3, as the Bears OFF get grinding and putting together 7 min drives to chip away at the lead. You knew that the DEF wouldn’t let up to ARI after essentially two big plays.

The front 7 is better than Lovie’s defense, but the backend is clearly weaker. A. Hicks is better all around than Tommie Harris (elite run stuff, ++ pass rusher). Coaching is better as well. They play team defense with everyone doing their jobs. For example, slot corners filling the outside running gap and making a splash play/tackle at the LOS.

The coming weeks against NE, MIN, LARM will be the real tests.

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117 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 02, 2018 - 12:02pm

I'm going to assume you mean the 2005 and 2006 Lovie Smith teams, since John Fox was the coach in 2015 and 2016.

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102 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by TomC // Oct 01, 2018 - 8:18pm

theslothook - interesting question, and I think those Lovie squads are a good analogy, especially the later ones that relied so heavily on creating turnovers (particularly by Tillman). I'm a bit surprised by some of the names you checked---Vasher was an average corner who picked off eight balls one year because opposing QBs were chucking it up in fear for their lives, and Ogunleye was decent but nothing special. Other than off-the-ball LB, I think the current squad might be better. (Brown and Harris were wonderful when healthy but not healthy anywhere near long enough.)

Aaron Brooks - if you're gonna throw that level of shade, at least read the original post. (My memory may be off, but I don't think Lovie coached the 84-86 squads.)

Chip - have to disagree about Hicks/Harris, at least when Harris was healthy. He was basically unblockable and terrorized teams more like Mack does now. (and I assume you meant 2005 and 2006, not 2015 and 2016)

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106 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Duke // Oct 01, 2018 - 9:26pm

This Bears fan's opinion:

I think the pass rush is better on this team. At the very least, Mack is a better edge rusher than anyone Lovie had (MAAAYBE Peppers), and Hicks is really good too. And there are a bunch of other talented rushers that keep stepping up when I'm not expecting it. That's the thing that stands out so far about this squad--the rush. I honestly think that even without Mack, their D-Line matches up pretty close to the post-Harris-injury Lovie teams, and this team HAS Mack, so...

The run defense doesn't seem as good. I know it is rated as one of the best in the league but I don't see it as good as the Lovie teams. I think it's more that rush defense matters less now. That said, I have every bit of confidence of this team to stop a team that tries to run it down their throats; but it's hard to beat Urlacher and Briggs flying around the field.

The secondary is interesting. So far the corners have been surprisingly competent, which is good enough with the pass rush. The safeties look pretty good, actually. The middle linebackers are only okay, I think--I think Roquan Smith is still getting acclimated--but again, good enough with a strong pass rush. The coverage has the chance to improve as the year goes on, which could be scary.

Ultimately, you go with the historical team who proved themselves, over the team that has played 4 games. But this is a good looking defense. They could be something special.

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65 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 3:33pm

Something else I want to pose to others. On paper, I think the rams have the most talented set of starters I've seen in 20 years. Note, I don't say best team I've seen - I don't think their talent is spread optimally, but that's not what I'm discussing here.

Looking over their roster - their line is good, their receivers are deep and talented, their secondary has 4 really good players and they have a wrecker of worlds at defensive tackle along with another damn good defensive tackle. We can question their linebackers and pass rushers, but all together - its the best I can remember.

Other contenders would be 2007 Ne, 2004 Steelers, and 2010 Packers.

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72 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 01, 2018 - 3:59pm

2007 Pats had 10 guys who were all-pros at some point.

1998 Vikings are worth considering.

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73 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by theslothook // Oct 01, 2018 - 4:13pm

The patriots were weak on edge rusher, their linebackers were pretty slow and was I not a fan of Elis Hobbes nor their free safety. Their offense was as stacked as one can be though.

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78 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Oct 01, 2018 - 4:46pm

They ran a 3-4, and their OLBs were Vrabel and Adalius Thomas. Vrabel was an All-Pro.

\Seymour and Warren were their d-linemen

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88 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Anon Ymous // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:16pm

Thomas was actually an ILB for most of 2007, the OLBs were Vrabel and Colvin.

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101 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by RobotBoy // Oct 01, 2018 - 7:51pm

Colvin is a sad story of what might have been. Very talented but never recovered from a brutal hip injury (in 2006?). Adalius Thomas was a major disappointment - I think Belichick projected him as the next LT. After that, the Patriots really stopped spending big money on free agents.

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85 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:09pm

Really interesting discussion about the value of a tie. I think denying the Texans a win was probably the most valuable thing the Colts should have been playing for, so I think they should have punted, but I can certainly understand reasonable people disagreeing here.

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89 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Eddo // Oct 01, 2018 - 5:28pm

I haven't really thought about it in terms of the value of "denying the Texans a win" vs. getting a win for themselves (I like your phrasing, by the way), but I think Reich's decision was clearly poor. Even with the first down, they were going to need to gain another 20 yards or so to get an attempt at a makeable field goal, whereas the Texans needed less than that had the Colts failed.

I saw the comparison to Doug Pederson's fourth down aggression on his own half of the field in the Super Bowl, but that was not in a situation where the Eagles would have lost had the Patriots kicked a field goal on their next series.

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96 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by Tom Tulpa // Oct 01, 2018 - 6:24pm

Pray for me, I had Bucs-Bears on one screen & Falcons-Bengals on the other. I feel like I was force fed a PhD in Losing Football from the University of Losers at Loserville in one afternoon. On one hand, the crude, spectacular fireball created when the Bucs blow up on the pad. On the other, the exquisitely ornate art form the Falcons have made of torturous defeat. That's no bird on the helmet, it is the Mark of Cain.
I must purify myself in the waters of Lake Tito's Vodka.

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103 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by yavimaya_eldred // Oct 01, 2018 - 8:29pm

The Bills were so bad that it's hard to make heads or tails of the Packers' performance. Rodgers clearly played his worst game of the season, throwing three should've-been interceptions (the pick he did throw wasn't his fault). Weirdly, his mobility both inside and outside the pocket looked great.

Aaron Jones is incredible, and should get more work.

Josh Allen is the worst quarterback I've seen since Joe Webb. It's bizarre how awful he is. He constantly abandoned clean pockets and ran into sacks, constantly threw balls no where near anyone, and generally played like he had no idea what he should be doing. Kyle Fackrell, who sucks a ton and frankly shouldn't be on an NFL roster, somehow got three sacks, all because Allen ran directly into him. Based on the Eric Walden Rule, that means Fackrell will play (terribly) in the NFL for an additional 8 seasons.

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104 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by mrt1212 // Oct 01, 2018 - 9:11pm

That's saying something considering the dude he replaced.

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107 Re: Audibles at the Line: Week 4

by yavimaya_eldred // Oct 01, 2018 - 9:40pm

Note that I wrote "that I've seen". I haven't seen Peterman play outside of a couple, uh, "highlights". What's weird about Allen is he's so bad it's not easy for him to throw a bunch of picks, because he's often so far off that no one can catch it. He had multiple throws yesterday that sailed many yards out of bounds in the vague direction of his receivers, yet I can't say they were intentional throwaways. He had misses in the open field that similarly landed near no one, as well as that bizarre interception that he threw with such intense conviction directly to Alexander, covering a receiver that was never open on the play.

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