Audibles at the Line
Unfiltered in-game observations by Football Outsiders staff

Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

compiled by Vincent Verhei

For this special NFL draft edition of Audibles, as with our regular Audibles feature, the FO staff sends around e-mail comments about the draft. We share information, ask questions, and keep everyone else informed as we watch. We then compile a digest of those emails and produce this feature. By its nature, it can be disjointed and dissimilar to the other articles on the site.

While these e-mails are written with Audibles in mind, they do not represent a standard review of the draft. That means we aren't going to discuss every pick, or every talking point. We watch the draft as fans as well as analysts, so the discussion may be colored by our rooting interests and aspects of the draft may not be covered to your fullest desires or even at all.

Before the Storm

Tom Gower: I'm looking forward to laughing at teams for taking bad or limited quarterbacks way too early.

Dave Bernreuther: As am I. Nothing will be quite as ridiculous as Josh Allen last year, but I still can't get over the Kyler Murray hype machine and the fact that he might go first. Which might make for a perfectly good intro conversation before Pick 1 -- what does everyone here think of him?

I don't think any of this year's quarterbacks are likely to be any good. But I say that most years, and of course it's far too easy to be right when you're measuring college kids against inner circle NFL Hall of Famers. I've seen enough of Murray to think that he COULD be a great one on the field, but I've also seen enough of him off the field to think he's not nearly mature enough yet either, not to mention he only started for a year, at a football factory school, in a conference without any defense. Somehow, though, it seems that people are pointing to the success of Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson as reasons that he WILL be great as opposed to as more measured reasons for optimism.

I feel like he's going to be a great example of recency bias, even if Kliff Kingsbury turns out to be as great as everyone wants him to be.

Then again, I think Murray is almost certainly better than Jared Goff, and Sean McVay just took Goff to a Super Bowl ... so despite all those reasons, I also totally understand all the optimism around him.

Rivers McCown:: I think you've succinctly crystallized the debate. Murray has plenty of arm and a huge amount of talent, but seems to be a bit more up-and-down on a play-by-play basis. That's not a disqualifying factor for No. 1 overall as we saw with Goff, and I'd say even Jameis Winston. Even getting a top-15 quarterback is probably worth the No. 1 pick if you don't have one.

So it comes down to how much you believe in Josh Rosen and how strongly you feel about the other top prospects. I would probably give Rosen another year and take Quinnen Williams, but I like Murray and understand the pick.

Bryan Knowles: The most interesting thing about Murray is how unprecedented it would be for the Cardinals to take him. Forget back-to-back top 10 picks; there's only been one case in common-draft history where a team has taken a first-round quarterback in consecutive years: the Colts in '82-'83 with Art Schlichter and John Elway. Schlichter was facing at least a year-long suspension for gambling, too, so it's not even really comparable. It's crazy to think that Arizona could give up on a top-10 pick after one season.

Ian Boyd: I think Murray is a really iffy pocket passer both due to the height thing but more importantly because I don't think he reads defenses from the pocket all that well and gets flustered if you take away his pre-snap reads and escape hatches.

BUT, he's a nightmare throwing down the field on play-action and he can boost his own team's play-action game both with his running ability (on keepers or bootlegs) as well as his ability to buy time for the coverage downfield to devolve into man-to-man.

In a Ben Roethlisberger-Pittsburgh type system I think he could be deadly, and it's notable that Kingsbury hired the architect of the Le'Veon Bell run game to coach up the Arizona offensive line. Kingsbury has always had a knack for tailoring his offense to different quarterbacks and I think he'll build a power run/play-action spread offense for Murray to run.

Tom Gower: He doesn't have Baker's history of leadership and demonstrated ability to take over jobs from more pedigreed players, or Baker's multi-season track record of quality play, or of his tearing apart a really talented defense in the competitive part of a game. He's not built like Wilson. We thought he was playing baseball four months ago. He's used to living off his legs. I'd want to know more about how things went down at Texas A&M. Baker stunk for half a season as a rookie, only thriving when he was put in the right place. Maybe Kingsbury will be there for the long haul, or you're committed to bringing more Air Raid elements to the NFL. The line stinks. The general manager traded up to draft the current guy in the first round last year, and he was in a ludicrous situation. I don't get it, aside from quarterback Thirst is real and he fits Kingsbury, but what do I know.

Dave Bernreuther: "Even getting a top-15 quarterback is probably worth the No. 1 pick if you don't have one."

That's another thing. If you're that confident in Kingsbury to be a quarterback mastermind, do you bother spending the No. 1 pick on one when you have a quarterback like Rosen? What they spent to get him is already irrelevant, as it's a sunk cost, but it's not as if the kid is suddenly talentless after one bad season. A Quarterback Whisperer *should* still reasonably be expected to also get the most out of Rosen, even if he is flawed or possibly now broken.

But as you say, getting a top-15 quarterback with the No. 1 pick is worth it. Especially with salaries as they are now. I'd be adamantly against picking any of these quarterbacks if I had to hand one a Matthew Stafford contract, but I might have said that last year too, and look at Mahomes and Mayfield now. With the current CBA, the risk of being wrong is not nearly as great as the upside of being right, and that definitely changes the game.

Still, I look at a lot of Murray's highlight reel and while I don't see the kind of horrid decision-making or inaccuracies that make me pessimistic about a lot of others, I still see a lot of "that play just wouldn't happen against quality opponents." And Murray has never played a game in his life where he wasn't on a stacked team with a huge advantage. But such is the peril of projecting the future of college kids. I'm sure Tom Brady's college tape had him making some pretty poor throws too. And now of course he can throw anyone open regardless of coverage or the overall talent level of his roster.

The quarterback I really don't know what to make of is Dwayne Haskins. I feel like if he were white, he'd be a lock for the first pick, as terrible as that sounds. But on the other hand, I never got the sense that Ohio State was winning games because of him. Urban Meyer's Buckeyes have won with Cardale Jones, for instance, and other top programs dominate with quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts ... and both of those guys are actually pretty terrible at playing quarterback.

Don't forget that Jimmy Johnson spent a No. 1 on Steve Walsh the year after the Cowboys took Troy Aikman first. That was a supplemental pick, but still the same cost.

"Murray has never played a game in his life where he wasn't on a stacked team with a huge advantage."

With the exception of his last game against Alabama (whose next game of course showed that maybe their defense isn't quite up to the mystique/hype they're given either.)

Ian Boyd: "I'd want to know more about how things went down at Texas A&M."

I believe he was promised playing time as a freshman. In the recruiting season he visited Texas and tweeted a picture of a Longhorns jersey with his number on it (No. 1). Shortly after, he got what he wanted from Kevin Sumlin. The Murray family have always been master negotiators, as we all saw in the baseball vs. football saga. The juggling of quarterbacks his freshman year at A&M infuriated him and the other freshman quarterback (Kyle Allen), and the offensive coordinator they both liked was fired, leading to both transferring.

"And Murray has never played a game in his life where he wasn't on a stacked team with a huge advantage."

This is very true. His high school in Texas has an entire town (Allen) packed into a single school so they have like 6,000 students going up against other "big" Texas schools that have 2,000 or 3,000. They also have lots of affordable housing in town and can easily get move-ins from talented players that want to play on that squad. He had a future 5-star left tackle, a future 4-star left tackle (that was later his left tackle at Oklahoma), and an eventual All-American center (Tejan Koroma, BYU) on his high school line. On the other hand, he eviscerated the college defenses he did face.

Aaron Schatz: As noted in the QBASE article, based on prospect rankings from this year and next, Murray had teammates last year with more combined draft value (OL, WR, and TE) than any top-100 quarterback of the last 20 years except for Johnny Manziel, Matt Leinart, and Danny Wuerffel.

Ian Boyd: He's Johnny with a little less toughness, a stronger arm, and sans the coke addiction.

Tom Gower: Yup, and I thought Johnny should have gone in the third or fourth round because of the type of player he was. If he's cleaner off the field, I could justify earlier, but 1-1 is an awful tough sell to me.

Ian Boyd: But also the Air Raid passing stuff makes the game easier for all quarterbacks, and especially the ones who have experience in it and can attack teams down the field. I truly think some of this stuff -- especially the adjustable vertical routes and regular deep-bomb attempts -- are going to revolutionize the NFL like the three-pointer did to the NBA. Johnny didn't have that and Kyler will.

Aaron Schatz: Interestingly, who is the biggest error in the FiveThirtyEight quarterback accuracy model that loves Murray so much? It's Johnny Manziel. That being said, it's hard to compare anyone to Manziel because the off-the-field issues were such a big deal.

Dave Bernreuther: "regular deep-bomb attempts -- are going to revolutionize the NFL like the three-pointer did to the NBA."

Now that is an interesting thought experiment.

It'd be something of the opposite of the West Coast Offense revolutionizing the NFL decades ago, when the Coryell offenses featured mostly deep throwing, 60% completion rates were noteworthy, and you ran to set up the deep shot. What's old is new again ... same as the omnipresent cycle between the 4-3 and the 3-4.

It's not quite the same, though, as all Air Raid type offenses also use plenty of one-read short passes in the same fashion as the WCO and others. But you're certainly right that with the rules the way they are, there's a definite advantage to designing your offense to start taking more shots like that in between lower-variance high-DVOA plays.

And Kingsbury does seem as well suited to that as anyone. Despite the criticism of his overall W-L record in college. No matter who they run out there at quarterback next season, that offense is going to be interesting to watch. Which now makes me wonder about David Johnson and his 1000/1000 goal as well ... but that's another topic for another time.

Ian Boyd: To some extent that's what Mahomes and the Chiefs did last year, right? Tons of deep shots from spread sets with him running around to buy time as needed. The Patriots had to play dime to cover everything up while leaning on Old Man McCourty over the top and then the Chiefs started chucking wheel routes on linebackers and still almost caught up.

I think that's where Kingsbury will pick up.

Rivers McCown: I'm no deep Kliff Kingsbury specialist or anything but he might also want Murray to help ease up the load on his running game. Maybe he thinks option advantages will be crucial in the NFL. Certainly a quarterback I'd be a bit squeamish utilizing against NFL defenses given the size, but he's definitely got the athleticism to be a factor in the running game and we've seen limited quarterbacks (Tyrod Taylor) churn out solid offenses because they can have that impact. Josh Rosen isn't that quarterback.

At any rate, I don't think he and Manziel make for a neat-and-tidy comparison for many reasons, not only Manziel's off-field. But I do get a bit skittish about quarterbacks who aren't seen as committed to the NFL lifestyle and Bob McGinn's anono-scout post was, unless I am misremembering, filled with scouts questioning that from him.

Dave Bernreuther: More or less, yeah. Interesting to imagine that Andy Reid took from Kingsbury and built on it, and now Kingsbury might do the same. And while that line needs a ton of work, they do have the dynamic running back, as well as a certain old and wise receiver.

Not all teams -- the Cardinals among them -- have a Tyreek Hill though, who is the closest thing the NFL has to the college game's regular incidence of "wide receiver is open by 5 to 10 full yards on most plays." Not to take anything away from Mahomes, or even Reid, but that was certainly helpful to the design of their offense and the quarterback's confidence level, I'd imagine.

Aaron's 538 link alerted me to the existence of a quarterback named Easton Stick, which is making me giggle. I'll be playing hockey later tonight with an Easton stick as well.

Ian Boyd: Easton Stick was Carson Wentz's heir at North Dakota State. He's nothing like him. He's the white quarterback who everyone should be suggesting a position change for, to slot or something. When they needed to make plays they'd run quarterback power.

Marquise Brown is the next Tyreek Hill, sans the penchant for finding even smaller people to physically abuse. I don't know that finding sub 6-foot track stars who can run wild in a toned-down game with an emphasis on spacing and passing will be all that hard.

Dave Bernreuther: We're within an hour of the first pick and we're still seeing reports that the Cardinals have reached out to the agents of three players TODAY. Hard to believe this is not just some gamesmanship to drum up interest ... but even if it's obviously that, they're definitely doing a good job with it. Long gone are the days where the first pick has already agreed to terms weeks ahead of time.

Here's a random thought that I'll send out before the draft just in case the Jets end up taking the guy at No. 3 and rendering this all moot, even if it's more in character for them to take Williams. I can't help but wonder if, for all of the ludicrous lengths the Raiders went to in the name of secrecy, they aren't just in love with what should be an obvious choice: Ed Oliver.

I mean, the guy could be a Warren Sapp-like interior game-wrecking presence, and Jon Gruden coached and loved Warren Sapp. Hell, Sapp might be the one player most responsible for what I believe is an ill-gotten rep as a coach worthy of a $100 million contract. Everyone loves Quinnen Williams, and with good reason, but Gruden is exactly the type to get attached to a player with freakish skills like Oliver. Everyone is talking about them and quarterback crushes and Khalil Mack replacements, and I've seen a whole bunch of mock drafts that have Oliver sliding well into the teens or even 20s ... but I would not be shocked at all to see him go to Oakland at 4.

Tom Gower: In the dozen major mocks I collected today, Oliver goes past No. 6 in one of them, and he goes eighth there. It's Kyler 1, Bosa 2, Devin White 5, and some combination of Oliver, Quinnen, and Josh Allen 3, 4, and 6. Anything that shakes that up will be a big departure. Maybe we'll get that. 2017 had a chalky consensus for the first 10 or 11 picks, and the Mitchell Trubisky trade followed by Solomon Thomas going No. 3 ruined that.

I don't know who's taking this "we're not taking Kyler at No. 1, really" that seriously. So far, eh.

Dave Bernreuther: I've seen him go in the teens and as low as the 20s a lot lately, though it's hard for me to remember where because everyone writes ten different mock drafts so that later they can all point to the few darts they threw that hit the board and gloat. It never made much sense to me, though, because he's pretty universally regarded as one of the five most talented in the draft.

I think the kept secret that's more worth applauding is the fate of Josh Rosen. I've seen some chatter about the team keeping both, but there's a zero percent chance they keep a disgruntled and demoted kid whose biggest knock a year ago was a possible attitude problem, right? Obviously we know they have no leverage, but the ONLY move is to get rid of him. And surely the NFL told them not to do it officially until the draft, since it'd ruin their buildup and promotion. But also surely, his suitors have already made their offers. And we haven't really heard anything about the possibilities there, other than the typical guesses at which places make the most sense.

Bryan Knowles: I'm trying to think which of the three possibilities for the Cardinals I'd be happiest with, as a GM:

A) Keeping Rosen and drafting Bosa or Williams, thus having a chance at a franchise quarterback and a top-level pass rusher.

B) Drafting Murray and trading Rosen, thus having a chance at a franchise quarterback and extra draft capital in 2020.

C) Drafting Murray and keeping Rosen, thus having two chances at a franchise quarterback, with the possibility of trading one later if need be (a la the Drew Brees-Philip Rivers situation in San Diego many moons ago).

I think I'd rank them A, C, B if I had to, but then, I liked Rosen as a prospect more than I like Murray, and one bad year behind a ramshackle offensive line isn't enough for me to jump off that just yet.

Keeping Rosen, even with Murray, feels preferable to me, because getting a franchise quarterback is both exceptionally important and exceptionally difficult. I get that it'd be nigh-impossible to keep both quarterbacks happy, but that feels better than trading a top-10 pick for pennies on the dollar.

Speaking of which, rumors have the 49ers trading former top-10 pick Solomon Thomas for pennies on the dollar as they lead up to taking either Bosa or Williams at No. 2. John Lynch was hailed as something for a genius for his Thomas-Reuben Foster first round in 2017. You, uh, don't hear him called that much these days.

The Draft Begins

Aaron Schatz: So, Murray goes No. 1, as expected. Let Rosen Trade Watch begin.

Bryan Knowles: No. 1 is, indeed, Murray. The worst-kept secret in the NFL comes to an end.

I doubt Rosen's going anywhere during the first round; I think he'll be traded tomorrow afternoon for a 2020 pick, after everyone sees where the first-round quarterbacks this year go.

Robert Weintraub: This nice weather in NashVegas is ruining my pet theory of the evening -- Devin Bush somehow falls to the Bengals, than he is immediately struck by lightning.

Dave Bernreuther: There are definitely reasons for optimism with the Murray-Kingsbury combination; it's easy to find clips of clever offensive play designs from recent Texas Tech seasons, even without Mahomes, and of course we know Murray has talent and is a far better runner than Mahomes was. That'll give Kingsbury, who was never shy about calling designed quarterback runs, the ability to make it more of an 11-on-11 game. And I'm one of those people that believes that at the NFL level, success is as much about psychology and interpersonal chemistry between coach and quarterback as talent (since every first-rounder has talent) and a lot of evaluators haven't caught on to that, so I should applaud the Cardinals for trying to find/create that perfect fit, current roster/2018 No. 10 pick quarterback be damned.

But I still can't help but be a skeptic. And not even because of the size or even the inexperience. It just reeks to me like everyone has hyped this kid up so far beyond where he was even in December as he was winning the Heisman. And it makes me wonder if NFL talent evaluators are buying into media hype more now in this new media age than they used to, despite what they'll say about reading the news. It wasn't THAT long ago that the entire league was willing to pass on Heisman-winning quarterbacks; Troy Smith was a fifth-rounder in 2007, Chris Weinke and Eric Crouch fell to what was then still the second day, and of course multi-sport athlete Charlie Ward went completely undrafted. I suppose a generation ago, teams were also still far more stubborn about "pro style" as opposed to integrating college passing game elements like the Air Raid, but it wasn't entirely about scheme fit. Sometimes those skills just don't translate over to the pro level where every athlete on the field is a standout. Murray is quick, elusive, and has a great arm ... but dozens of others have been able to say that too.

I also suspect that a lot of people are over-reacting to the baseball thing because this year Mahomes threw a lot of sideways passes and whatnot. I definitely think there's something to the ranginess and physics-defying throws that mirror middle infield play, but Mahomes and Russell Wilson spent their lives turning double plays in those positions while Murray played centerfield. I doubt there's really any carryover there, but can't help but think that some people are still overweighting that connection.

I guess the reasoned response is this: let's assume Kingsbury can design an offense that suits Murray and David Johnson, even if they don't currently have ideal receivers for that yet. If that's the case, it will come down to how well Murray handles pressure and NFL-level competition. I'm not convinced there's enough experience or mental acuity there (never mind the Wonderlic rumors, as that test isn't even remotely predictive; but it's dishonest to say anything other than that he didn't impress anyone with his media appearances during combine season) to bet on it. I still think that the hype:reality ratio here is as out of whack as I've seen of any prospect. But I'll put on my optimist hat and say that with the rookie wage scale and evolution of offenses, it's still not a bad pick. And we'll all certainly be better off if he turns into a star. Just imagine two electric Murray-Wilson battles per year for a decade. We should all want that. So here's hoping it works out.

Rivers McCown: So, the Jets just aren't ever going to have a real edge rusher I guess.

I don't hate the pick, but they entered into this free agency class and this draft and still have Jordan Jenkins and the shrug emoticon on the edge.

Aaron Schatz: Right now, I have projected as the Jets' other edge rusher Tarell Basham, whom the Colts waived after just one year when they took him in the third round of the 2017 draft. Woof.

Dave Bernreuther: The Jets hang on to the third pick and take Quinnen Williams. I know it's not the case, but it seems like the Jets take a scary good defensive lineman in the top half of the first round every year. And they're never bad picks, but they still never really end up changing the team's fortunes. Meanwhile, they've also managed to pick up quality linemen on the cheap too, such as getting the hugely underrated Henry Anderson from the Colts for nothing.

That said, Williams was sort of a no-brainer. Even though it leaves them without a real edge rusher, as Rivers notes. I guess they really didn't like Josh Allen. Which is fine by me, as I am still crossing my fingers for him going to Buffalo just for the comedy.

Vincent Verhei: Wow, Clelin Ferrell to the Raiders at 4. That's a guy who had been suggested might end up with the Seahawks with one of their picks in the 20s.

Bryan Knowles: Well, we have our first surprise of the draft, with Clelin Ferrell going No. 4 to the Raiders.

The Raiders had so many needs, nearly any pick they made here would have been defensible, but 13 sacks and a league-worst 22% pressure rate a year ago means that their top priority had to be replacing Khalil Mack. In that sense, Ferrell makes sense -- but with guys like Josh Allen and Brian Burns still on the board, Ferrell at four seems rather high to me.

Derrik Klassen: The Oakland Raiders selecting Clelin Ferrell is quite the surprise following a dull first three picks.

Ferrell is not a bad player by any means -- he’s got a long frame and a mean, high-motor play style -- but it’s hard to justify Ferrell over the likes of Josh Allen, Brian Burns, and potentially Montez Sweat (pending his medicals).

Nobody expected Ferrell to go this high. I think even seeing him in the top 10 would have been a surprise to most. What a bombshell already.

Aaron Schatz: The Raiders just used the No. 4 pick on SackSEER's most likely bust of the year. "According to SackSEER, Ferrell is a thoroughly average draft prospect who probably does not belong in the first two rounds."

Rivers McCown: Did the Raiders send the scouts home last week or last January?

I mean Mike Mayock has forgotten more about football than I know, but that's a really weird flagpole to plant and whoever they had replacing Mack was already going to be a lightning rod.

Dave Bernreuther: I haven't seen one single clip of Clelin Ferrell making a play that looked like it came against an NFL-caliber tackle. I don't remember noticing him at all in any of the Clemson games I watched last year, except the one against Syracuse, which was one of those games that made me roll my eyes at the fact that they were a top-five team (which, given the performance they put on in January, could just as easily be evidence that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.) I don't put any stock in mock drafts (almost all of which had him far, far lower, and not the first Clemson defensive lineman picked), but I agree with them on this one. This feels like a huge reach.

Bryan Knowles: Heck, per Michael Silver, the Raiders picked Ferrell in their mock draft ... at No. 13, after a projected trade down. No takers whatsoever, I assume?

Tom Gower: That's a strange pick at No. 4. I thought he'd make a ton of sense in the middle or later part of the first round because of his all-around game and history of production, and because he's reportedly a great guy. But the point of having high picks is to draft players you can't draft with later picks, and I don't see how Ferrell qualifies for that. If you have to go back and take less value because of it, then do that. Draft charts aren't written in stone and handed down from Mount Sinai or something.

Rob Weintraub: For what it's worth, my friends are at Sweat's draft party here in Atlanta. Say he's having a ball, doesn't care where he goes. What's he gonna say, but he doesn't seem like a dude worried about a heart problem.

Carl Yedor: Leave it to Gruden and Co. to shake things up. If they really wanted him, they probably could have moved down and still gotten their guy. It doesn't seem like there was a ton of desire to move up this year though.

This is the first year since 2015 where there wasn't a trade up into the top three, though all of those other trade-ups were for quarterbacks. That may say more about this year's class than any change in team behavior though.

Derrik Klassen: Devin White is a very good prospect. He’s got the size, speed, and nastiness to be a top-tier linebacker in a few years. That being said, off-ball linebackers just aren’t worth the fifth overall pick when Ed Oliver and a slew of edge rushers are on the board.

Nathan Forster: In addition to Ferrell's mediocre SackSEER, there is another reason to be skeptical that the pick will work out. Historically, edge rushers who are drafted "surprisingly high" in the first round have mostly busted. Here is my list of edge rushers who were drafted in the first round and surprisingly high (according to NFL Draft Scout):

Jamal Reynolds
Aaron Maybin
Bruce Irvin
Larry English
Calvin Pace
Robert Ayers

None of these guys were drafted as highly as Ferrell, so it might be arguably unfair to compare them to him, but that is not an encouraging list for Raiders fans.

Rivers McCown: You hate to see it.

Aaron Schatz: When I wrote the QBASE projections up, Daniel Jones was a projected third-round pick. How on earth did he make it up to No. 6? The Giants REALLY have to be counting on the fact that the rest of the Duke team around him was terrible and he had a tough schedule.

Vincent Verhei: THAT team taking THAT quarterback at THAT spot in THIS year may be funnier than the Bills trading up for Josh Allen last year.

Dave Bernreuther: Daniel Jones has great instincts, a good head on his shoulders, moves well in the pocket ... and misses WAY too many throws.

Which is exactly what one could say about Josh Rosen. Who could be had on the cheap, both dollar and pick-wise.

My god. What is Dave Gettleman doing?

Bryan Knowles: The Giants take Daniel Jones at No. 6, so maybe, finally, the Eli Manning era is approaching and end.

Can anyone tell me what people see in Daniel Jones? I had him as Day 2 pick, late second round, early third round. I just don't see why you'd go for him over Haskins here, or over someone like Drew Lock or Ryan Finley later on tonight. I get that he produced with roughly zero talent around him, but...

Derrik Klassen: OH MY GOD

THE GIANTS DID IT

Daniel Jones at sixth overall is so insane, so unfathomable, so unjustifiable that only one man could make it happen: Dave Gettleman.

Jones’ career yards per attempt at Duke was 6.4. Six-point-four yards. In college!

Taking Jones anywhere in the first round, much less sixth overall, is a bad bet. Of course, it could still work, but the risk vs. reward does not get any steeper than this.

Tom Gower: I haven't fallen off the couch, so I can't use "ROFL" as my reaction to Daniel Jones going sixth.

Carl Yedor: It's always fun when you get a burst of tweets all at once that all say the same thing. In this case, they were all some variation of laughing at the Giants. Never underestimate an NFL GM's willingness to draft a quarterback because he "looks the part."

Bryan Knowles: I was supposed to be under heavy medication during the draft. That got pushed back, which is too bad -- that might help me understand Gettleman's thought process better.

Rivers McCown: The Giants finally found Davis Webb's replacement.

Dave Bernreuther: The more popular team from the largest media market in America just took a quarterback at six, and ESPN is showing an extended interview with Taylor Swift.

Bryan Knowles: Not sure more pass rush is what Jacksonville needed at No. 7, but Josh Allen is probably better than any of the top players at the Jaguars' actual positions of need (Marquise Brown? Maybe T.J. Hockenson? Andre Dillard?), so I couldn't ding them too much for it. A much better Josh Allen pick than we saw a year ago.

Dave Bernreuther: My dual Josh Allen dream is dead, so my new hope for the Bills is that they stick with their 2018 plan of drafting a physical specimen that isn't actually any good at football and take D.K. Metcalf. That'd be amusing. But first, Detroit...

Tom Gower: Right tackle in Jacksonville looks like a big question mark, but they have potential answers and last year's disaster was a result of multiple offensive tackle injuries. Hockenson was a popular mock pick for them if they didn't go tackle, and I thought it was possible because Tom Coughlin loves tight ends and their depth chart there is awful. But Allen's a better player than all of them. Quarterback was the real wild card. Sure, they're probably stuck with Nick Foles for next year, too, but he has a lot of non-great play in his past and isn't taking an average roster very far.

Carl Yedor: We're now through eight picks with no trades. In 2015, we made it all the way to Pick 15 before there was a trade (the Chargers moving up two slots for Melvin Gordon). That class had Winston and Marcus Mariota go one-two, but then the next quarterback taken was all the way down at 75 in Garrett Grayson, which is a little hard to believe given the guys that have gone high in recent years. Not a good quarterback class at all that year.

Derrik Klassen: T.J. Hockenson is a good, but boring pick for the Lions. Could have taken a pass-rusher, a cornerback, or even an offensive lineman. Don’t love taking a tight end at eighth overall, but Hockenson is as well-rounded as they come and he’s got great potential. Interesting to see how they transition their offense from what it was with Golden Tate to now a more tight end-centric attack.

Bryan Knowles: Ed Oliver's mini-slide ends, going to Buffalo at No. 9. That should be an upgrade over Star Lotulelei. Surprised he lasted this long, to be honest.

Dave Bernreuther: Damn. The Bills did something good. They're shaping up to be good in spite of their quarterback. The Mark Sanchez-era Jets model.

Rob Weintraub: Bush, or top offensive line prospect. Good turn of events for Cincy.

Derrik Klassen: The Bills just got the best value we are going to see all night. When I highlighted Oliver for Futures, I pinned him as someone worth the No. 1 overall pick. Obviously that was never going to happen, but he had the talent to justify it. Getting him at ninth overall, especially under a defensive head coach in Sean McDermott, is fantastic.

Rob Weintraub: Great now the Steelers get Bush and he'll be killing Cincy for the next seven years.

Derrik Klassen: I really like Devin Bush. I think he’s going to be a 90% version of Lavonte David. That said, giving up the 52nd overall pick in 2019 and a 2020 third-round pick to climb 10 spots for a linebacker is crazy. I understand they need the help, and Bush is going to be a clear upgrade, but it’s tough to argue they got good value here.

Rivers McCown:Let’s see what Giants fans thought of their new quarterback:

Vincent Verhei: That is an enormous price Pittsburgh paid in that deal. I love making fun of John Elway as much as anyone, but that's a great deal he just made for Denver.

Tom Gower: I'm with Derrik on Bush to the Steelers, and it's a fit, but the value is just so much. Bush was a nigh-unanimous pick to the Broncos at 10, but they're not close to winning and getting a couple players is better than the difference between Bush and whoever they'll be able to get at 20.

Dave Bernreuther: It'll be just as funny when he takes a bad quarterback at 20. But yeah, having those two other picks to still get the same guy is not a bad deal.

Dick move by the Steelers to jump up and get someone that fit the Bengals well. I feel for you, Rob. Just take comfort in the fact that they now owe a washed-up quarterback 85 million dollars over the next few years so they're not actually going to be any good for a while anyway.

Rob Weintraub: First order of business -- Jonah Williams pulls and lays out Bush.

I can't complain -- really need an offensive lineman with his talent, versatility, and leadership skills. If he's 90% of Andrew Whitworth we're in good shape with him.

Rivers McCown: That Bobby Hart offseason deal just looks even dumber now.

Vincent Verhei: Rashan Gary 12 to Green Bay. Probably the guy most frequently mocked to Seattle goes about a dozen picks earlier than that.

I believe Christian Wilkins nearly killed Roger Goodell with that shoulder bump.

Derrik Klassen: Did not expect to see Christian Wilkins go this high, but I’m not opposed. The Dolphins are completely rebuilding, so I don’t see much wrong with getting a hyper-athletic anchor in the middle to build around.

Cale Clinton: Honestly really like this pick for Miami. Christian Wilkins is going to work really well in a 4-3 system under Brian Flores’ tutelage. I understand that the Dolphins are currently putting the “tank” in Fish Tank, but Christian Wilkins is going to be able to produce on Day 1. Very solid pick all around.

Bryan Knowles: Wilkins was mocked just around here; very few people had him getting past Atlanta at 14, at the very least. I like the pick quite a bit! Maybe not Miami's biggest need, per se, but he's a very good piece to build around.

Carl Yedor: Miami grabbing Christian Wilkins tracks with them reportedly wanting to target next year's quarterback class. Big respect for the shoulder bump on Goodell, glad to see he's having fun tonight.

Bryan Knowles: Atlanta takes guard Chris Lindstrom at No. 14, which is fine, but I really thought they could use more help on the interior defensive line, and Jeffery Simmons was right there...

Dave Bernreuther: The Dolphins pull an anti-Gettleman, but also at the same time a 2018 Gettleman, passing on Haskins in favor of the better Clemson defensive lineman, while targeting next year's quarterback class. Now that's how you tank.

Of course, the Giants were actually still trying to win last season...

Cale Clinton: With Atlanta taking a safe pick in Chris Lindstrom, could things have panned out better for the Washington Redskins? Between the Broncos trading out and the ... interesting decision-making of Dave Gettleman, who would have thought Dwayne Haskins would fall to 15?

Carl Yedor: A little surprising that Lindstrom was the second offensive lineman off the board given where guys like Jawaan Taylor were going in mocks, but then again, those are just projections. To the point of taking Jeffery Simmons, his ACL injury will likely knock him out for 2019, and I know that from listening to interviews from ex-league guys, first-rounders are often viewed as Year 1 starters. When Sidney Jones tore his Achilles at his pro day (at the very end, unfortunately), he went from a projected first-rounder to the middle of Round 2 for Philly. So I wouldn't be surprised if that is playing a part in him not going at 14.

Aaron Schatz: Congratulations to Washington, who get their shot at a franchise quarterback with Dwayne Haskins without having to trade up. Who would have expected that?

Bryan Knowles: For that matter, it makes Gettleman's decision worse and worse. It's not exactly like there has been a run on quarterbacks to this point. Jones would easily have been available at No. 17!

Haskins at 15 to Washington is probably the best combination of top player meeting biggest need in the draft so far, proving it is sometimes better to be lucky than good.

Vincent Verhei: Haskins goes to Washington, a dream scenario for them. And Josh Rosen is still in Arizona with the most obvious trade options pretty much off the board. At this point, I'm agreeing with what I'm hearing on NFL Network: Rosen is going to back up Philip Rivers or Tom Brady in 2019, with an eye on taking over down the road.

Derrik Klassen: I believe Dwayne Haskins to be the best quarterback in the class, so for Washington to get him at 15th overall as the third quarterback off the board is damn good. Don’t think he has outstanding upside, but he’s very bright and does a lot well right now. Love his fit with Jay Gruden.

Tom Gower: Add me to the chorus of voices saying Haskins at 15 is a shockingly reasonable pick for Washington given their extreme Snyder-ness and the conflicting reports we had earlier today of the front office and coaching staff not being on the same page and Dan Snyder trying to take over the draft room. I don't love him, but I liked him more than Jones even if I did just get to listen to Steve Smith compare him to Dan Marino.

Vincent Verhei: SackSEER's favorite, Brian Burns, to Carolina at 16. Of the eight players we covered in that article, only three -- Montez Sweat, Zach Allen, and Oshane Ximines -- are still on the board. Meanwhile, there hasn't been a single wide receiver drafted. Seattle's options are starting to look really interesting.

Derrik Klassen: Panthers desperately needed Brian Burns there. I like Burns as the best non-Bosa edge player in this class. Athleticism, production, a wide array of moves -- Burns has it all.

Carl Yedor: Having watched both Haskins and Oregon's Justin Herbert against Washington (Pac-12) this year, I was more impressed with Haskins going against a defense with some real NFL-level talent on the back end. They highlighted his ability to hit hole shots and find openings on the NFL Network broadcast, and from watching that game, that definitely felt accurate. A little surprised that Washington (NFL) didn't do anything crazy in trying to get him, so the relative craziness at the top likely helped them there.

After Carolina takes Brian Burns, we're now on pins and needles waiting for what additional chaos Gettleman might sow.

Vincent Verhei: The Giants take Dexter Lawrence at 17, the pick they got in the Odell Beckham trade. Gettleman gets a 342-pound Hog Mollie. And Clemson has three defensive linemen taken in the first 17 picks. Insane.

Aaron Schatz: Of course the Giants take a run-stopping defensive tackle with the pick they traded Odell Beckham to get, because Dave Gettleman has become self-parody.

Cale Clinton: Are the Giants just waving the white flag on the 2019 season? Dexter Lawrence is going to be a menace on the defensive line. His athleticism and strength is undeniable. He was a monster for Clemson. But I’m really scratching my head as to why they took him this high. He has injury concerns. There are consistency issues. Lawrence doesn’t even really fit their defensive scheme. The most confusing part: was defensive line even a position of need for New York this offseason? I like Dexter Lawrence as a player, I hate him on the Giants. What a frustrating Thursday this has been for Giants fans.

Derrik Klassen: What year does Dave Gettleman think it is?

Bryan Knowles: Eh, a replacement for Snacks Harrison isn't the worst thing in the world...but no. Better than the Jones pick, but still a subpar selection. Not a good night for Dave Gettleman, and frankly, I think this is a worse first round than taking Barkley last year. Yeah, taking a running back that early is bad, but at least Barkley was considered the most talented player in the 2018 draft by a significant portion of people. Not quite so much this year.

Rob Weintraub: When did the Giants turn into the Jets?

Dave Bernreuther: This Clemson draft reminds me of the year North Carolina State had three front seven guys taken in the first round as well, back when Charlie Casserly got roasted and fired for being right and taking Mario Williams. The difference between the two squads is that North Carolina State was still a middling program then, while Clemson annihilated the Nick Saban juggernaut for a dominating title.

Of course, Lawrence didn't even play in those games...

Hard to get too upset about this pick on its own, but in context ... man, there really just isn't any reason to be excited about paying for those PSLs in the Meadowlands for the next several years.

Cale Clinton: So after spending a lot of money on the offense in free agency, the Tennessee Titans go with Jeffery Simmons out of Mississippi State. Before his ACL injury, some considered him a top-5 pick. This was an absolute home run. Simmons will be able to learn under veteran Jurrell Casey and head coach Mike Vrabel. This is a defensive tackle with linebacker mobility. If the Titans end up in the postseason, I hope that Simmons is able to show off why he was mocked so high before his injury.

Tom Gower: Titans go Jeffrey Simmons at 19. Defensive line was a significant need, but I wondered about Simmons because (a) Jon Robinson in his first two seasons hadn't really gone near anybody with past legal issues, and (b) the torn ACL means he's at least starting the season on PUP, almost certainly, and may not play at all, and Robinson has picked immediate contributors early in the draft. Simmons' potential is such that he's not a bad pick there anyway, and the character reports from the past three seasons at Mississippi State are apparently glowing, but it's still a departure.

Vincent Verhei: Seahawks on the clock with needs at wide receiver, cornerback, and safety ... and every wide receiver, cornerback, and safety in the draft is still on the board. Edge rusher is clearly their biggest need, but with so many players gone there ... well, let's see how it goes.

(They will of course trade down.)

(Or take a running back.)

Cale Clinton: And they’re trading back!

Rob Weintraub: Saw on Twitter that the Giants now have drafted the last three Senior Bowl MVPs in consecutive drafts -- Jones, Kyle Lauletta, and Davis Webb. Amazing.

Carl Yedor: Seahawks trade back from their original first-round pick. Drink.

Bryan Knowles: The Annual Seattle Trade:

Seahawks trade: Pick 21

Packers trade: Pick 30, Pick 114 and Pick 118.

Decent haul for the Seahawks, honestly, especially considering how few picks they actually had.

Vincent Verhei: Seahawks have now traded down in the first round or out of it entirely eight years in a row. Per the Chase Stuart chart, they gave up 15.2 points of value and got 21.5 points back. More than 40 percent more. We'll see how the picks turn out, but on paper that's a big win.

Carl Yedor: Seahawks have now traded their original first-round pick every year since 2011.

Rob Weintraub: My first impression upon seeing Daniel Jones was "He didn't learn to tie a tie at the Manning Academy?"

Derrik Klassen: In terms of fit and filling a need, Darnell Savage to Green Bay makes a lot of sense. He’s the versatile sideline-to-sideline guy they need. However, taking him at 21 via a trade-up feels rich to me. Pinned him as more of a 40-60 type of talent. Don’t hate taking him here, but I’m not over the moon.

Cale Clinton: And the Philadelphia Eagles swoop in front of the Houston Texans to take Andre Dillard. Jason Peters is getting up in age, so the pick makes sense. Great feet and size and the always-important left tackle position. Fantastic pass-blocker, too. Carson Wentz is celebrating; Deshaun Watson definitely isn’t.

Bryan Knowles: With Dillard gone, Houston goes waaaay down my draft board to take Tytus Howard from Alabama State. Definitely a position of need -- possibly the most need for any one team in the draft, considering how Watson got banged up last season -- but that's a big gamble on upside with Howard, with players like Jawaan Taylor and Cody Ford still on the board.

Aaron Schatz: SIS had Howard as just its 10th offensive tackle in its Prospect Handbook. He's the highest player ever drafted from Alabama State.

Tom Gower: Bob McGinn reported his knee may be an issue pushing down Taylor, and I assume that's probably the case at this point. Over Ford? Howard probably is more of a straight tackle with better upside, but losing Dillard had to be an awful pain. I'm surprised they didn't pay a small price to go up, like they did for Will Fuller, but maybe Philly outbid them.

Derrik Klassen: Leave it to Jon Gruden to take the running back.

Dave Bernreuther: Josh Jacobs to the Raiders was pretty predictable, and with the Ravens on the clock it looks like the Colts will have their pick of quality defensive backs to choose from. Hard to be TOO excited about any of them. especially given the number of picks invested in them through the years and the lack of a stud pass rusher, but the stud pass rushers are off the board, and there are a good five or six really solid corners and safeties sitting there right now.

Carl Yedor: Jacobs to Oakland seemed pretty obvious, especially after Beast Mode retired. It seems like NFL decision-makers are starting to understand opportunity cost better with respect to running backs, but there are clearly still a few big exceptions that are not on that list. I don't feel as comfortable dunking on Gruden here given that Seattle just did the same thing a year ago, only for Rashaad Penny to be effectively the third-string guy last year.

Cale Clinton: Honestly I like the Jacobs pick a lot. Ran in the 4.6 seconds in the combine, but has a great burst of speed. Also, have you seen his legs?

Also, interesting question: is this a Gruden draft or a Mayock draft? I’m too young to remember peak Chuckie, so I’ll defer to you guys on answering that.

Rivers McCown: You, if you are reading this, can figure out when a team is about to jump in front of you better than the Texans front office can.

Vincent Verhei: Rivers would know better than me, but this does seem to happen to Houston a lot. Minnesota jumping ahead of them for Teddy Bridgewater comes to mind.

Rivers McCown: They never wanted Bridgewater. But they did get jumped for Jimmy Garoppolo that year by the Pats.

Carl Yedor: Hollywood Brown goes to Baltimore and is one of the rare NFL draftees that makes Goodell look like a normal-sized human being in the photo op instead of a pipsqueak when compared to someone like, say, Christian Wilkins.

Vincent Verhei: Washington trades up for Montez Sweat. Another pass-rusher gone. Gets more and more likely Seattle won't get one tonight.

Cale Clinton: Washington takes Montez Sweat, probably the last elite pass rusher in this draft class. Despite the heart condition which may have scared some teams out of taking him, I think it’s going to be a big boost to an already promising front seven.

I was very ready to make fun of the Redskins tonight, but is Dan Snyder making ... good draft decisions? This IS a weird draft.

Aaron Schatz: Tweet of the night:

Dave Bernreuther: Hollywood has had decent QB luck:

The Colts decided there's enough on the board to pick up a 2020 second -- possibly a high one if Washington is no good -- to drop back into tomorrow. Not a bad move if there wasn't a must-have guy on the board. Sweat could be nice, but had some question marks. It's not quite last year's haul for sliding down three spots, but it's not a bad return at the end of the day either.

That said, my favorite of the defensive backs was Johnathan Abram, and the Raiders just snagged him at 27. Hm.

Vince, I've felt like you guys were going to get N'Keal Harry all along, and I really like him, so even without an edge guy, it could be a good night for you still.

Tom Gower: Medical guys, we never know about them. If healthy, Sweat is a great value there and praising a couple Washington picks makes me wonder what I'm missing.

Re: was this a Mayock or Gruden draft, Mayock the past couple years I started to view as at least as much information collator as evaluator, so I never bothered to think much about what he thought about players. But Ferrell, Jacobs, and now Jonathan Abram aren't talented reaches like they did last year when we know Reggie McKenzie was at least largely sidelined. So, Mayock draft, probably.

Vincent Verhei: Seahawks up twice in a row and Harry is out there. D.K. Metcalf is out there. Byron Murphy -- hell, every cornerback -- is still out there. Word is Giants are trading to trade back up. A lot could happen right here.

Seattle native chimes in:

Tom Gower: Think of it this way: they have an extra 10 minutes to trade Pick 29!

Bryan Knowles: Well, it turns out it's pick 30 they traded, but who's counting?

They took L.J. Collier, who is probably more of a 3-tech than an edge rusher, but it was the best avilable end-like product they could have gotten.

The Giants use that 30th pick for Deandre Baker who is ... fine. But, like, he's in much of a muchness with Byron Murphy, Greedy Williams, and Rock Ya-Sin, and the Giants were on the clock at 37. Did they really need to trade up for Baker? I don't think so.

Dave Bernreuther: Gettleman trades back in to 30. While it would be hilarious if he gave up a 2020 first, Field Yates says it's just for their second and two late picks. 37, 132, 142. That's far less entertaining.

They take DeAndre Baker. I don't even know who that is.

Cale Clinton: Seahawks went from league-low four picks to now having nine picks after the Frank Clark trade and two trades down. Savvy.

Carl Yedor: Seattle picking L.J. Collier here definitely feels like he was the "cliff" of edge rushers for Round 1. Based on some of the boards I've seen, he's a bit of a reach (so standard operating procedure). But it's probably a scarcity thing, and it's actually at an important position this year. So, cool?

Aaron Schatz: Seattle getting 132 and 142 for dropping seven spots is a huge win. What is there, oh, a 40 percent chance that pick 37 is better than pick 30? And you get two more shots at the apple for that? Hell yes.

Tom Gower: Maybe there's some huge gap between those four corners, or they thought that somebody would jump up and grab all of those guys in the next eight picks. I mean, I'm with Dave, I hoped they gave up their future No. 1 to complete an evening that makes no sense to me the analyst, but Aaron's point is correct.

Vincent Verhei: We go back to the Chase Stuart draft chart:

The 30 pick is worth 12.9 points.

The 37, 132, and 142 picks are worth 18.1 points.

They'll have to make those picks count, but they are killing it in the wheeling and dealing.

Bryan Knowles: If Kaleb McGary is going in the first round, Jawaan Taylor's knee must be absolutely shot.

Aaron Schatz: Patriots finish up the night with N'Keal Harry, who was third in Playmaker Rating (i.e., not counting likely draft status) and was SIS's No. 1 wide receiver in their Prospect Handbook.

Rob Weintraub: Sure, rag the Bengals for giving Bobby Hart dough then taking Jonah. But the Falcons gave Ty Sambrailo, who is arguably worse, even more money, then traded up into the first round to replace him.

Cale Clinton: New England closes the draft by answering their wide receiver problems in N’Keal Harry. 6-foot-2, 228 pounds with a lot of strength. Great hands and ability to win 50/50 balls. What’s even more impressive than his measurables is his elusiveness despite that size. He has the ability to take the top off of a defense while also being able to catch the dink-and-dunk passes the Patriots have become known for. Tom Brady finally has a big target to throw to. Could this be the first receiver Bill Belichick actually hits on? It feels difficult for this guy to bust given his skill set.

Vincent Verhei: To me, the clear winners of Round 1 are Washington. They get their quarterback without having to trade up for him, which I never would have expected. They get a bargain for a guy who could turn out to be the best edge rusher in this class. Very well done.

Runner-up goes to Seattle, which fills its most glaring need with Collier, and even more for the two trades they made. When you look at what they gave up and what they got, it works out to 11.5 points of net gain -- about equal to the 37th overall pick (which, coincidentally, they own). They basically created an early second-round pick out of thin air.

The fans are also winners. That round flew by at less than four hours, and the live band playing between picks was refreshing on its own while also gifting us with exasperated Rich Eisen, which is always a win.

Biggest losers are the Giants, for obvious reasons. I'm not thrilled with what the Raiders did either.

Tom Gower: I don't remember what I thought at the time when the Jets had four first-round picks, but the Raiders and Giants both had three first-round picks and, well, uh, they used three first-round picks. Maybe the trade up for Baker is better than I thought it was. Maybe Lawrence is more than just a run-stuffer. Maybe Daniel Jones will make me look like an idiot for thinking he's ludicrously overrated as a prospect. Maybe Clelin Ferrell will become a terrific player instead of just a good one. Maybe Josh Jacobs will become a bellcow three-down back. Maybe Jonathan Abram is that great, and they won't regret probably getting sniped by Washington moving up for Sweat.

I don't know what Green Bay is doing on offense, aside from thinking Matt LaFleur will be able to fix everything, or maybe I'm too influenced by reading all the mocks that had them going offense at some point, either line or tight end. And Gary was a surprise after adding Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith in free agency, especially because he's similar in style and they could have had a Brian Burns who's much more of a stylistic complement.

Seattle got picks they needed. Washington and Philly sniped players from other teams, and Washington also got a quarterback without paying a premium price, and got him after a quarterbcak I didn't like nearly as much.

More critiques go around scouting evaluations and I try to be much less confident on those versus NFL teams that know a lot more, on multiple levels, than I do, though I guess you could just say Daniel Jones is potentially a great pick because he's a quarterback and they didn't trade up to get him. I thought Noah Fant should have gone 30 or 40, not 20, as an oversized slot receiver, and don't get going oversized slot receiver before all the actual wide receivers. I was surprised the cornerback run didn't start earlier. As noted, I thought the Titans pick was somewhat of a departure from the past couple years, though it still hit a big need.

No trades tonight including current players. No future first-round picks given up. We can laugh at Pittsburgh for giving up what they did, and how John Elway apparently learned from his attempts to trade up a few years ago when the opposing GM asked for first-born children or some such. But the meat of this first round was teams taking reasonable but not super-exciting players at mostly reasonable spots.

Bryan Knowles: Teams looking for a cornerback or wide receiver at the top of the second round have an embarrassment of riches to choose from, after the two positions were untouched until the very end of Round 1.

Just looking at the ten teams next on the clock, the 49ers, Raiders, Jaguars, Bengals, and Seahawks could use either position. The Cardinals and Buccaneers could use a corner or two. The Bills, Broncos, and Colts could all be in the market for a wideout. We could see a ton of those guys go really early tomorrow.

Cale Clinton: After a few surprising selections tonight, there's still a lot of top end talent on the board, specifically at the wide receiver and cornerback positions. Byron Murphy, Greedy Williams, Rock Ya-Sin, and Joejuan Williams are all still hanging around despite most of them receiving mid- to late first-round mock grades on many people's big board. With N'Keal Harry and Hollywood Brown as the lone first-round wide receivers selected, that still leaves A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Paris Campbell, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside relegated to Day 2 status. Even with a big run on offensive linemen, there are still a good deal of big men left on the board. I expect a big run on corners and wideouts early tomorrow, with the occasional break for guys like Jawaan Taylor and Cody Ford.

Bryan Knowles: I'd love to know what teams know about Jawaan Taylor's knee. And his back, for that matter. If he's healthy, he's the best player remaining, but teams seem to be giving him a wide berth.

Comments

70 comments, Last at 30 Apr 2019, 4:06pm

1 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

You guys are the only ones who think the Steelers paid a heavy price to trade up for an ILB that they desperately needed and was not going to be there when they picked.

Every other publication thinks it was a fair deal. Especially since they have two third round picks this year, one pretty high one.

2 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

'I haven't seen one single clip of Clelin Ferrell making a play that looked like it came against an NFL-caliber tackle.'

Perhaps you should watch last year's national championship game. He had a tackle for loss against Jonah Williams.

4 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Yeah, I regretted leaving that out as soon as I sent it. My memory of that game is mostly how good Lawrence looked vs how bad Tua and Hurts looked even when not being pressured. But yeah, he faced Williams and played well in the other Lawrence's absence, and it wasn't the result of dumb design/being blocked by a tight end like the previous week.

7 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

To be honest, Jonah looked solid against him. I was more concerned with Quinnen Williams' play in that game than either Ferrell or Jonah Williams at first. Then I went back and watched it again; not Q's best moment, but not as bad as I thought.

I need to remember these are off the cuff emails, too.

29 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Well I'm not going to lie and pretend to be an expert, nor will I even pretend not to have a bias against Jon Gruden. For all I know this will be a brilliant Mayock pick and his hiring as GM (and railroading of a perfectly qualified prrior GM with a great track record) will go down as brilliant...

On another note, I don't know how I only just noticed today that both of those top 2 teams last year had stud players on each side of the ball with the same last names.

52 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

There was a review of that specific matchup on another site. Just focusing on Cle vs. Alabama's OT.

The conclusion was they each won some, and they were close to evenly matched, but Cle came out slightly ahead. Very slightly. It didn't translate to great numbers, but things like Bama rolling the offense away from him or faster checkdowns makes a difference.

I seem to recall him doing well against A&M's OT as well.

3 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Also, why would you want Josh Allen drafted by the Bills? It's much more amusing when Josh Allen sacks Josh Allen, or picks off Josh Allen, etc. Only the Bills faithful would see that in practice if Allen went there.

6 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Few in Packerland are keen on the Gary selection. But those who follow the Big10 know that Gary did a lot of sacrificing in the MI defense to free up other defenders. And the notes questioning his effort are ridiculous. You don't play for Jim Harbaugh if you are lazy. I think Harbaugh is half insane, but having players who give consistent effort is the rationale part of JH. Also, the run defense was always there and effort is a big part of playing run defense.

So I completely get and acknowledge why folks think the Packers reached. But I can understand them examining the context and thinking that if they can refine his rush skills Gary could be a big time player. It's on the coaching staff which is a huge IF

If Savage can be in the right place 80 odd percent of the time, maybe at least be in position to GET an interception every so often and stay in the lineup he will have dramatically exceeded the standard for safeties in GB.

I really am baffled as to the mock drafts who bleated about the needs on the Packers offense. Packers were a top 10 offense last season with all kinds of issues and distractions. Sure you can use some reinforcement but the defense completely collapsed in the second half. Pretty obvious where talent is needed

21 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

I wasn't keen on the Rashan Gary pick either. But I thought going pass rusher at that point was the best option and he's the classic boom/bust pass rushing prospect. I hated the Clay Matthews pick and loved the Nick Perry pick, so it shows just how much I know. I didn't know much about Darnell Savage. I was hoping for Nasir Adderley, but that was more because I still have fond memories of Herb. I like what I've read about Savage since the pick. I'm just glad they got two decent prospects at positions of need.

11 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

I appreciate the numbers as much if not more than anyone. With BB I see the perfect situation for a QB in terms of an amazing o-line, incredible receivers, etc. This is one of of those outlier situations where if that support system breaks down folks are going to see not lesser results but drastically reduced results.

And meanwhile age continues to become a consideration.

Steelers are my wife's team so don't want bad things to happen. But I think the end is rapidly approaching for Ben. Glad to be wrong

12 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

A semi-related note; One thing that really bothers me about tracking the decline of older QB is that as the rules/league have changed to favor the past more and more QB stats have inflated in the face of QB's that may have declined. As a result QB's like Brees, Rothesburger, & Brady, have gotten much better on paper even as the eye test shows declining skills. Clearly there is contradictory narratives in declining arm talent vs. growth in "head" talent for all these guys, but it's very hard to evaluate these competing narratives.

31 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Do they?

It depends on the numbers, I guess. The only quarterback less accurate than he was last year was Josh Allen. And yeah, he was still 8th in DVOA last year, but if I put a gun to your head would you expect that to get better or worse in 2019?

Ben can still do some things, but he's old, fat, and getting way less accurate. He's now down his top weapon and we're hearing that maybe some of those chemistry problems might be on him (which doesn't even need to be true to matter... or could be total BS and not matter at all). He's not completely shot, and can still probably win some games that very few others could... but I don't consider him to be a super reliable bet to be excellent for 16 games next year.

My only real issue with him is just that new contract, which is ridiculous. There was no reason to give him that. Especially not now. And anyway, I was mostly just being sympathetic to Rob.

64 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

And the stat you're leaning on is...completion percentage?! You are of course aware that a pass counts as completed if you throw it for one yard or if you throw it for fifty? That completion percentages have been rising steadily for decades? That Kirk Cousins was second in the league in completion percentage? Does that mean you consider Cousins the second best QB in the league? Or Derek Carr the 6th best? Come on.

13 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

I'm confident the Falcons would have taken Wilkins at #14 if Miami hadn't taken him at #13. On the other hand, I doubt Simmons was a consideration, for both injury and character concerns; the Falcons typically don't take risks.

With Wilkins gone, seems the Falcons went to Plan B, which was to fortify the OL. No arguments there. As to whether Lindstrom and McGary are good picks, we'll see, but draft grades and draft consensus are curious things. If the Falcons had taken Florida OT Taylor at #14 and Oklahoma OL Ford at #31, there'd probably be some pretty strong draft 1st round grades this morning. But in the Land of Reality, no other team thought those guys were worthy of a pick either. Eye of the beholder and all that...

14 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

I love Audibles but I feel like for the draft, it would help a lot to insert bold headers marking each pick and player at the appropriate time. I know there can be a little crosstalk but it feels odd that I need another tab open with the list of picks to follow the conversation.

17 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Rosen to Dolphins?

A trade that makes sense.

Reports are talking about the 48th pick in exchange, which is a huge bargain, confronted to the previous "rumoured" Cardinals' requests.

27 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Are you suggesting the Dolphins are guaranteed the #1 pick if they roll with Fitzpatrick?

The general consensus seems to be that a mid-2nd rounder for Rosen is good value, so unless Miami disagrees with this consensus, any reasons for not making the trade are somewhat contrived. "We're happy with Fitzpatrick" or "tanking for whoever" are not good reasons for refusing a good value trade in my eyes. And if it turns out he's terrible, and they need to replace him next year, they'll probably be in firm contention for a top prospect anyhow.

55 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

All depends on what the good value/consensus for Rosen truly is. It's clear that no one else offered a 2nd for Rosen, and Miami traded down to offer a lower 2nd. I think the Cardinals were the ones floating this idea that a 2nd for Rosen was fiar. I imagine teams were offering 3rds, and that's exactly as it should be. Rosen is still talented, but he is now damaged goods (with some mixed reports on his personality) and the Cards had no leverage to make demands - not able to trade Rosen before the draft in case Murray backed out to baseball/insisted on having a clause that he could back out at any time.

Maybe Miami rated Rosen highly last year and couldn't take him. If so, I'm a little more sympathetic.

33 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

I lean this way too. The Cardinals had no leverage at all after last night. They're lucky that anyone offered them more than a 4th at this point, or a 2020 3rd.

Grier must not love the 2020 QB class, or else he'd do exactly what you suggest. (Although Fitz is juuuust good enough to screw them out of getting the #1 pick, which is why I still don't agree with his signing at all, despite generally enjoying the fact that now he's in my TV market.)

34 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

The Dolphins can still draft a QB. They could take a late round flyer on someone like Shurmur or Tyree Jackson, then let him start for several games as soon as Fitzpatrick has a non-Fitzmagic game - which shouldn't take too long. Nobody would criticize the Dolphins for drafting a first round QB after drafting a late round QB the year prior.

42 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Right. Which is exactly why they had plenty of leverage as compared to the Cardinals, and thus the 48 is way too much to give up in this situation. Even if Rosen turns into a stud (which is possible but unlikely), they held all the cards (ha!) specifically because they still have all of those options you mention. Meanwhile the Cards have none whatsoever.

46 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Is it at all possible that trade possibilities including but not limited to the Fins had been "in the works" going into the draft and that there may have been some agreement in principle?

Also, the Fins are still trying to get back a lower pick, so it's not just a straight 48-for-Rosen.

22 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Do teams actually use the Chase Stuart value chart? Vince referenced it multiple times to prove the Seahawks were robbing everybody, but I'm skeptical. Unless they use it and believe in it, then the Seahawks wouldn't even know that they are winning these deals.
In my view the Seahawks walked away with not much to be excited about. They started with 2 firsts and ended up with: Collier, who was projected to be a mid 2nd round DE, and a handful of 4th and 5th round picks. According to the Jimmy Johnson chart, the Seahawks didn't get fair value for #21 (moving down from #21 to #30 should have got them 2 4ths and a 5th), and they should have got an extra 6th in the deal for #30. Meh from me.

24 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

I am not sure what they are using, but if they are using JJ's chart, then trading down isn't getting any signifcant premium in many of yesterday's trade.

Seattle would have trade down for 0.93 and 0.98 on the dollar.
Ravens had an even trade (you might want to argue the 3 picks > 1 pick but...)
Rams got 1.06 on the dollar, which would have been weirdier since the pick was the 32th (situational draft, but higher picks should command higher premiums)

The other two are difficult to calculate, since they involve future picks.

28 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

I think they used the Chase Stuart chart because he's made contributions to FO. The Jimmy Johnson chart gives the Packers a win (800 vs 620+66+58). I saw one analyst on either ESPN or NFLN who stated that it was a wash as one trade chart gave a slight advantage to the Seahawks while another chart gave a clear advantage to the Packers. I'd guess the Packers 'win' was referencing the JJ chart.

The other Seattle trade was the same. I don't know what Stuart's chart states. But JJ's chart gives the trade to the Giants (620 vs 530+40+34.5). I know there are other trade value charts around, but I'm not going to check them all. The point is it depends on whose chart you value more.

As far as the player the Seahawks ultimately picked, I won't judge until a couple years from now. My own track record of thinking who picked well and who didn't leaves a lot to desired. I only feel fairly confident as saying Giants fans will regret this draft for years unless Jones (who I believe is likely a career backup like Fitzpatrick) becomes at least Pro Bowl caliber. Maybe because I feel better about the Raiders picks than many here.

37 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Does it matter if teams use one particular chart or another? Every team always feels like they got the better side of every trade. But as a fan, I really don't care how my team feels, I only care that they're getting objectively better, so the only draft value chart that matters is the one *I* believe in.

As it is, I think Chase's chart is far closer to correct than the JJ one that was obselete 20 years ago, but even Chase's is in need of an update after the last CBA.

67 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

Belichick has recently opined on this -- it doesn't really help for an organization to use its own proprietary chart, since the other organization will still rely on its chart. It doesn't really help to say that I should be able to get your pick for less than you think, just because I have a different chart. So in practice, everyone uses the same chart otherwise you'd be unable to make trades with everyone.

53 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

The Jimmy Johnson chart is trash. It dramatically overrates the top 50 picks, and dramatically underrates players drafted after that. But that is zero percent Jimmy Johnson's fault. All he did was base points on the trades other teams were making, and most teams were making really dumb trades. And if they continue to use it, they continue to make really dumb trades.

The Chase Stuart chart is based in reality. He looked at what players drafted at each slot actually do in the NFL, and how successful they actually were, on average.

Neither is perfect, of course, and there are exceptions to every rule. But of the two, the Stuart chart is the only one I bother with.

57 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day One

I defintely agree that Jimmy's chart isn't right, Chase's is better. However, it seems like it's Jimmy's chart that gets used. It's like arguing metric is better than imperial, but if everyone uses imperial, is there an any advantage to using metric? I would say yes there is - always an advantage to using a better product. Therefore the Seahawks are doing better than other teams in these trades. Agree. But do the Seahawks actually use Chase's chart? If not, they are just winning these trades because they always trade down. Any team could win by trading down. Doesn't take any special knowledge - just don't trade up. Can we really credit the Seahawks when for all we know they use Jimmy's chart and trade down, despite Jimmy telling them they are losing the trade? These are important philosophical questions :)