Audibles at the Line
Unfiltered in-game observations by Football Outsiders staff

Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

compiled by Vincent Verhei For this special NFL draft edition of Audibles, as with our regular Audibles feature, the FO staff sends around e-mail comments about the draft. We share information, ask questions, and keep everyone else informed as we watch. We then compile a digest of those emails and produce this feature. By its nature, it can be disjointed and dissimilar to the other articles on the site. While these e-mails are written with Audibles in mind, they do not represent a standard review of the draft. That means we aren't going to discuss every pick, or every talking point. We watch the draft as fans as well as analysts, so the discussion may be colored by our rooting interests and aspects of the draft may not be covered to your fullest desires or even at all.

Fallout from Day 1

Dave Bernreuther: (My battery died as I was typing this last night.) When the Seahawks didn't take N'Keal Harry, I got a glimmer of hope, because as a Colts fan I loved him as much as Frank Reich loved Devin Funchess, and I expected him to be long gone before even 26. Instead the Pats grab him at the end of the round, which I think is a GREAT pick. He runs excellent routes and is fast, but can also play like a big guy and win contested balls. Perhaps most importantly for that offense, he can block. I know a lot of Pats fans that say Belichick stinks at drafting corners and receivers, but I think they really got a good one here. Vincent Verhei: I'm actually starting this late Thursday night, because David Gettleman is answering questions about taking Daniel Jones sixth overall, and OH MY GOD YOU HAVE TO READ HIS ANSWERS.

Ian Boyd: That is really something. On Clelin Ferrell, he looked pretty good, but the dude did play with three other monsters that commanded attention and when he crushed Notre Dame in the playoffs it was usually because the Irish tried to block him with a tight end. Rivers McCown: At the risk of sounding a little heartless, I'd bet there are Giants fans rooting for the car. He based the decision of picking Jones on how he felt watching him at the Senior Bowl practices. Incredible. Dave Bernreuther: Well I'll say this: the man has balls. He showed them last year when he passed on Sam Darnold for Saquon Barkley, he showed them when he kept Eli Manning, he showed them when he traded Odell Beckham, and he sure showed them last night. Pat Shurmer: (awkward laughter) That's also quite a visual. If he wasn't in love with Darnold last year, I can understand it. I wasn't in love with him either. But good lord. Sam Darnold was MILES better as a prospect than Daniel Jones. So was Josh Rosen. So *is* Josh Rosen. I said this last night too, but instead of spending the No. 6 pick on a third-round-level prospect who would almost certainly have still been there at 17, why the heck didn't they just spend a third-round pick -- or, hell, be charitable and make it like a 3 and a 6 if Arizona was still pretending they had leverage -- on a kid whose skill set is nearly the same as Jones, but who we had at least seen make the same mistakes against NFL defenses that Jones did against college kids? This isn't as dumb as the Josh Allen pick, because Jones truly does have great pocket awareness and makes pretty good decisions. I get that part of why Gil Brandt over-praised him for sure. And while it's unlikely, we have seen players improve their accuracy after going pro. Patrick Mahomes wasn't nearly as accurate or turnover-averse at Texas Tech, for instance. But man ... there were some really good players on the board and a very high likelihood that he'd still be there at 17. At worst they could've traded up to 14 to jump Washington, as Atlanta would surely have been thrilled to get another pick and still get their guard. There's nothing about that pick at that time that makes sense to me. Especially after taking Kyle Lauletta (another flawed quarterback with similar strengths) last year and Davis Webb the year before that. I hate this so much more this morning than I did last night, and I really hated it last night. Rob Weintraub: Bad as the Jones pick was in retrospect, the bigger failure was Mel Kiper not reprising his famous "It's clear to me this team has no understanding of what the draft is supposed to be all about!" except for the Giants in place of the Jets. Cale Clinton: As the TWIQ guy, I'm just happy Dave Gettleman is still in the league. Guy is a quote machine who has begun to border on absurdity. He feels like someone's parody of an old school, grit-and-grind general manager, except the answers are too ridiculous to be believable. Just to prove my point: here's a picture of Dave Gettleman, GM of a team worth $3.3 billion, grinding film on a NINTENDO WII in the year 2019.

You cannot make this stuff up. Dave Bernreuther: That guy is probably getting paid a $3 million salary this year. Remember when the Jets had Mike Tanenbaum and were laughingstocks? The Giants should be so lucky. Bryan Knowles: It sounds like the Cardinals and Dolphins have mostly agreed to a trade, sending Josh Rosen to Miami for the 48th pick (with possibly a late-round pick from Arizona coming back the other way, according to some reports). Great move for the Dolphins if that happens, but could Rosen ask for a much worse offensive line to be traded to? Dave Bernreuther: No. 48 in the current draft is actually a shockingly good haul for Arizona, given their total lack of leverage in this situation. If pundits and general managers such as Chris Ballard are to be believed, that's right in the meat of the draft too, and a very valuable pick. I'm a little surprised. After the two NFC East teams took their quarterbacks last night, you'd think that the Dolphins could've held out through the evening, feigned interest in whichever quarterback was still on the board at that point (in case Drew Lock comes off in the 30s), and gotten him for a third instead. If I'm Rosen I'm not totally thrilled about this. Bryan notes the disaster of a line, but they also have a total unknown at offensive coordinator with the latest Pats DC-cum-Head Coach in power. Nothing about that screams "setting him up for success," especially in a full-blown tank year. Speaking of which, giving up a decent pick in a deep draft is no way to build for the future ... and if they're tanking it this year anyway, why not just start hoarding picks for a better quarterback class next year? Chris Grier must like Rosen better than any of the expected class of 2020.

Round 2

Bryan Knowles: We're starting off with Byron Murphy to the Cardinals at 33. I feel there's a better-than-usual chance that the Cardinals' second-round pick will be a better player than their first, though the positional value obviously is another matter entirely. Derrik Klassen: Addition of Rock Ya-Sin signals a change in Indy in terms of scheme. Played a lot of soft zone and Cover-2 last year because the outside cornerbacks couldn't run (or do much of anything else) beside Pierre Desir. Ya-Sin is a nasty press corner, so looks like that's the direction they want to move. I like it. Bryan Knowles: Jaguars have traded up to 35 and taken offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor -- best player available and a position of need, so a really strong move. With Taylor and Josh Allen in as their first two picks, it kind of feels like the rest of the draft is gravy for Jacksonville (though a wide receiver in this deep draft would be appreciated). Bryan Knowles: Interesting wide receiver bit here -- the 49ers take Deebo Samuel at 36, and receiver-needy Seattle immediately trades down yet again. I wonder if they wanted Deebo, too, or if it's a coincidence. Aaron Schatz: Greg Little pick by Carolina is interesting because they only re-signed Daryl Williams to a one-year deal. So Little slots right in for 2020 at right tackle. Derrik Klassen: I have to say, I never liked (quarterback) Josh Allen, but the Bills are making a strong effort to allow him to succeed. Drafting Cody Ford to further build their offensive line makes sense for a quarterback who likes to hold the ball too long. Right on for them. Always need to go all-in on your young quarterback. Bryan Knowles: Buffalo just traded up to grab Cody Ford at 38. They're getting a nice, beefy draft; it'll be nice to say good things about their draft after last year. They listed Ford as a tackle; I know there's some talk if he should kick inside to guard or not, but I think he's a legit tackle prospect. Good draft. Tom Gower: Josh Norris of Rotoworld has suggested Williams might move to left guard, opening up a starting spot. That'd be interesting. But that price the Panthers paid, giving up 47 + 77 to get 37. It was an overpay even by the Jimmy Johnson chart, let alone more "modern" charts. That's a really, really significant amount to give up, so I hope Little is worth it. Bryan Knowles: Can't knock the Buccaneers for getting a cornerback (Sean Bunting 39th overall), as they could really use three or four bodies in that secondary, but I had five or six corners ahead of Bunting still available. Love the position, not sure about the guy. Greedy Williams really didn't have a very good pre-draft period, did he? Not great at the combine, not meeting with teams one-on-one in the runup. You have to think if he had a more "normal" offseason, he'd be gone by now. Cale Clinton: With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking cornerback Sean Bunting with the No. 39 pick and the Oakland Raiders going cornerback Trayvon Mullen, Greedy Williams has to be irate. I understand that he hadn't gone to a single private workout, but this guy was a top-two cornerback in this draft. I can't explain why he's in freefall right now. Derrik Klassen: There goes Drew Lock to Denver at 42. Honestly, most people assumed Denver would make this pick a full round earlier. For what felt like an inevitability to happen now, at a more fair spot for Lock's value, I kind of like the move. Bryan Knowles: I was a bit surprised that Denver passed on Drew Lock at 41, taking Dalton Risner instead. Risner will presumably play guard for the Broncos, so that's not a very solid selection, but they need a quarterback... ... which, of course, is why it makes sense that Denver then traded BACK in to No. 42 to take Lock. I think Lock will be a better player than Daniel Jones, so that's a nice pickup at a good time for Denver. Of course, now that Elway has his hands on him, Lock will crumble into dust. Dave Bernreuther: One pick after taking a tackle, John Elway trades up to take the guy everyone expected him to, Drew Lock. I wonder what the reasoning behind that order was. If maybe he was trying to send a message and keep the kid's ego in check or something. That's a really strange sequence. Meanwhile, the Bengals now have 12 picks tonight and tomorrow. That's a lot of roster turnover. Aaron Schatz: Detroit takes Jahlani Tavai at 43. The SIS Rookie Handbook ranks Tavai 24th out of 25 off-ball linebackers. "Has the skills to be a backup depth Mike LB at the next level." He "never looks to be comfortable in coverage." Eek. Carl Yedor: Elway gets his quarterback. Like the pick in the second much more than I would have in the first. I'm a little surprised that most of the QB-needy general managers have shown more restraint with getting "their guy," with only the Giants pulling a true head-scratcher for a QB. Arizona was always picking Murray 1-1. Washington didn't have to move for Haskins at all. I'll be interested to see what happens with the Dolphins re: Rosen, but it definitely seems that with more teams happy(-ish) with where they stand at quarterback, there's less desperation to make a big move for a quarterback. Derrik Klassen: Of course it's John Dorsey who gets Greedy Williams as a steal at 46. Concern with Williams seemed to be character/effort-related, but we all know Dorsey to be someone who will overlook a lot in favor of talent. Pairing Williams with Denzel Ward is going to be nasty. Ian Boyd: Every time I see one of these linebackers go I think "why is he better than Ty Summers?" I often get the sense that the draft boards were consumed by people trying to drink water out of a fire hose and they lose track of the fact that the level at which guys are nearly interchangeable is much larger than their boards and values would suggest. Bryan Knowles: Miami did NOT trade to Arizona. Miami traded to New Orleans. The Josh Rosen price keeps going lower and lower... Bryan Knowles: Every year, I think I've finally figure out what Seattle will do in the draft. Every year, I'm wrong. Utah safety Marquise Blair wasn't on my radar in the second round. Carl Yedor: I watched Utah twice last year, and while I may not have been paying that close attention to their defense, I didn't really hear much about Blair at all. Consider me puzzled, to say the least. Seattle still has two more picks tonight (for now). They need to go receiver soon with Doug Baldwin dealing with injuries and advancing age. Aaron Schatz: Colts take Ben Banogu, one of SackSEER's two big late-round sleeper possibilities. He was originally projected to go around the fifth round by Scouts Inc. So he's not a late-round sleeper possibility anymore. He goes 46th instead. Derrik Klassen: Did not expect Ben Banogu to go as high as 49, but I like that pick for the Colts. They need to keep taking chances on pass-rushers until they hit. Banogu was the best consolation prize for missing out on Brian Burns in the first round; similar players. Bryan Knowles: What I'm rooting for now is for Miami to shrug and draft Ryan Finley at 64, just to put the screws further on Arizona. If the Dolphins don't take him, who still needs a quarterback? I guess the Chargers are the next-most needy team, but Finley's age makes sitting behind Rivers for a few years a poor proposition. Maybe Oakland? Dave Bernreuther: Big fan of the Banogu pick and that's entirely because of need. They're not a title contender until they have enough of a pass rush to disrupt top-tier quarterbacks, so I don't care about reaching or value of anything other than getting a bunch of them on the roster to rotate and try to strike gold with the next Robert Mathis. If they think he can be the guy, it's good that they got him now. Which is the same logic to which the Giants adhered when taking Jones at 6 rather than 17, of course ... but they paid a much, much higher price for an equally unknown quantity with better talent still on the board. Aaron Schatz: Time for me to ask about scouting lingo. On NFL Network, they say that Houston pick Max Scharping (offensive tackle, Northern Illinois, 55) is "a bit of a heel-clicker." OK, what's a heel-clicker? Bryan Knowles: Can't blame the Texans for doubling up on the offensive line (taking Max Scharping at 55 after Tytus Howard in the first). I thought they needed two offensive tackles, and they then signed Matt Kalil, meaning they needed ... two offensive tackles. Derrik Klassen: Stanford wide receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside at 57 is a good one for the Eagles. Carson Wentz is more than willing to give his guys chances and JJAW is the perfect receiver for that aggressive style. JJAW is a red zone weapon right away with potential to be more. Dave Bernreuther: Ben would be the one to ask, and I am only guessing here, but if an offensive lineman is a "heel clicker," it seems like maybe that means that his footwork/stride length coming out of his stance in pass protection is a bit less than perfect and could leave him prone to losing leverage and getting tripped up/tipped over. Total guess though. Seems more likely than the alternative, which is that he clicks his heels together pre-snap three times and magically gets taken back home... Bryan Knowles: Wide receivers beginning to come off the board -- A.J. Brown to Tennessee at 51, Mecole Hardman to Kansas City at 52 (that's the Tyreek Hill effect there), and then JJAW to Philly at 53. Not on that list yet? D.K. Metcalf, who people fell in love with after that dominating combine performance, ignoring the fact that he didn't really catch many passes in college and can't make cuts; I think they timed his three-cone drill with an hourglass. That being said, the end of the second/beginning of the third round is a great time to gamble on Metcalf, and someone (Indianapolis? Pittsburgh? The Jets?) is going to get good value on him. Cale Clinton: Glad that Andrew Luck no longer has to rely on one passing weapon, as the Indianapolis Colts take Ohio State wide receiver Paris Campbell. With 4.31 speed and great route-running, he'll hopefully be a great addition to a Colts team on the rise. The only concern here is the number of dropped balls Campbell has accumulated over his Ohio State career, but with Luck throwing you the ball and T.Y. Hilton working with you, hopefully that problem can be resolved. Dave Bernreuther: The Colts just spent $10 million to $13 million on a big body that can't run routes and drops passes, so Metcalf would be redundant. At 59, they instead take Campbell out of Ohio State, which doesn't move my needle one way or the other but I guess fits a need and won't be a disaster even if they're wrong. Aaron Schatz: The biggest problem for Campbell is that he came out as a senior. It's rare for a wide receiver to come out as a senior and turn into an NFL star. Ben Muth: A "heel clicker" is someone who brings their feet too close together in pass pro. They don't keep a wide base and have no balance as a result. Bryan Knowles: And the trade finally DOES happen. The Dolphins give No. 62 to the Cardinals for Josh Rosen. That's a heck of a steal; I wonder if anything else went from Miami to Arizona. The Cardinals put themselves into such a no-win position with the Murray pick; they had to give Rosen up for pennies on the dollar, and really didn't have another option. It's now being reported that the Cardinals had to send a 2020 fifth-rounder to Miami to complete the trade, too! Miami's having a hell of a weekend. Not in terms of players drafted mind you, but Rosen and a bunch of picks for 2020. Cale Clinton: An alleged hand-timed 4.22 and offseason training with Randy Moss make UMass' Andy Isabella a really intriguing pick. Sure, he's not the tallest guy, but now Kyler has a speedy vertical threat to work with. Funny they pair the undersized quarterback with the undersized wideout. Arizona's looking to be the shortest team in the league. Dave Bernreuther: (High-fives self for guessing right on the heel click thing.) Bryan, the Rosen trade is a steal for who? It's still a current-year second-round pick gained by a team with no leverage. Given the situation the Cardinals should thank their lucky stars. The Dolphins were likely bidding against themselves, or maybe the Pats' or Chargers' end-of-third picks. With a bit of patience Miami could probably have gotten him for an even lower pick. Derrik Klassen: Kansas City needed secondary help in the worst way. Grabbing safety/cornerback hybrid Juan Thornhill at 63 is solid. Think most people expected him to go a bit higher. He can be a similar player to Tyrann Mathieu, so I'm interested to see how they will deploy them together. Tom Gower: It's hard to think Arizona could have reasonably done worse than they did with how they handled Rosen, with it leaking in mid-February that they were locked in on Kyler (it seemed plausible as soon as they hired Kingsbury, but that's when it really got out there), then not being proactive in dealing Rosen until all they got for last year's 10th pick was a late second, and they had to give up a Day 3 pick next year for that. And then, with that pick, they take Andy Isabella when they have Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald, whose best use at this stage of his career has been as a big slot guy. Does Kliff plan on playing four wide receivers regularly, and if so does he plan on Kyler surviving until next year? Ben Muth: One last heel-clicking note. When I was in San Diego we had another undrafted rookie at offensive tackle who had that tendency. Our offensive line coach yelled something like "Clicking her heels sent Dorothy home and it'll get your ass sent home too!" Bryan Knowles: I think Rosen was better than any quarterback available this year, including Murray. It's a steal for the Dolphins. And I think you have to look at the whole picture. The Dolphins, who are NOT contending in 2019, traded the 48th pick for Josh Rosen, a fourth-rounder this year, and a second- and fifth-round pick in 2020. That's a darn good haul. Sure, they could have waited, but would they have gotten as much in return? I'm not sure. Bryan Knowles: Seattle goes and gets D.K. Metcalf, meaning they have my favorite and least-favorite picks of the second round. I like Metcalf at 64, and do NOT like Blair at 47.

Round 3

Cale Clinton: I'm starting to really like Arizona's draft. Boston College's Zach Allen is a big, powerful dude. He dominated in the ACC and has an incredibly high floor. With Terrell Suggs and Robert Nkemdiche hitting the open market in 2020, I really think Arizona has found a mainstay for their defensive line for years to come. Bryan Knowles: Also: NFL Network is reporting that the Dolphins sent the Cardinals the fifth-rounder, not vice versa, as was originally reported. That does dampen the trade a little bit, but it's still a steal in my book. Dave Bernreuther: I agree about Rosen, with the exception that I do think Murray's upside is higher, albeit pretty unlikely. And yes, compared to the original rumored 48th pick trade that's a haul, especially given his salary. I still think that after they bungled the situation, the Cardinals got lucky too. And no matter what Murray turns out to be, let's never forget just how badly Steve Keim bungled their quarterback situation overall. They spent over $20 million on Glennon and Bradford; then $11 million, a first, a third, and a fifth on Rosen; then a first on Murray while getting a late second and giving up a second fifth to get rid of Rosen, whom the Dolphins now get for $2 million a year. He also fired a coach after one year with a rookie quarterback and a depleted roster and replaced him with a college coach with a losing record and no NFL experience. Oh, and he also got himself suspended for five games too. Maybe Murray's play will make it easy to sweep that all under the rug. But if it doesn't ... five years from now Steve Keim's tenure might deserve to be judged as harshly as we've all judged Gettleman this weekend. Cale Clinton: Kyle Shanahan gets an offensive weapon to toy with in Jalen Hurd. A running back alongside Alvin Kamara at Tennessee and a wide receiver at Baylor, this guy can really be plugged in anywhere. I think if the 49ers can get him healthy and keep him healthy, Hurd is going to be a great asset for Jimmy Garoppolo and San Fran. Bryan Knowles: I'm surprised the 49ers doubled down after taking Deebo Samuel in the second round; I figured someone in the secondary would be the logical next pick. Hurd's an intriguing toy, and surrounding Jimmy G with weapons seems like a good strategy for revamping that offense, but I guess San Francisco just isn't planning on covering anybody in 2019 -- or, rather, is counting on big bounceback seasons from Ahkello Witherspoon and Adrian Colbert. Derrik Klassen: Darrell Henderson is an awesome running back with rare home-run ability, but the Rams trading up to get him at 70 is interesting, to say the least. He'll be good there, but have to wonder why they were this aggressive for a running back when they have other issues. Bryan Knowles: But no, Todd Gurley's knee is fine. Woah, some context for Seattle's Metcalf pick at 64: Adam Schefter is reporting that Doug Baldwin's career may be over thanks to his injuries.

Carl Yedor: I was a little concerned that Seattle was going to draft Metcalf in Round 1, so I'm a little more OK with it happening at the end of round two. They move up 13 spots at the cost of one of their zillion fourth-rounders this year. He was 14th in Playmaker Rating but fifth in Playmaker Projection, so I'm optimistic. Side note, the reason I didn't hear much about Blair when he was playing against Washington was because he was ejected for targeting in the first half. Definitely feels like Pete Carroll was unhappy with the run defense (17th in DVOA), leading to them trying to course-correct. Whether that is the best use of resources is another story. I will say, good on them for accruing a ton of value from their trades down to this point in the draft. Cale Clinton: L.A. Rams going with Memphis running back Darrell Henderson, trading two third-rounders in the process. Finished 10th in the Heisman voting and a very productive runner, but there's one thing on my mind with this pick: What the hell is really wrong with Todd Gurley?? I understand that the team lost C.J. Anderson, but you don't trade two thirds to take a backup running back. Henderson ran for 1,900 yards in 13 games last season. This is a guy who will be getting consistent reps this coming season. The cloud of mystery surrounding Gurley's health gets murkier and murkier. Bryan Knowles: Run on running backs! The Bears trade up, making their first pick (at 73) David Montgomery, and then the Bills follow up with Devin Singletary. The worst speed score on record for a productive running back was Ahmad Bradshaw's 87.7. Singletary had an 86.1. Tom Gower: Ryan Pace gives New England a future draft pick in trading up for the second consecutive season. STOP THAT. Aaron Schatz: Chase Winovich to the Patriots at 77? SackSEER no like. Only one pass defensed in his college career. Career high only 8.5 sacks. Great 3-cone time, though. Of course. Derrik Klassen: Of course the Patriots get a good deal on Chase Winovich at 77. Was a Force Player, per Justis Mosqueda, which suggests his athleticism makes him more likely to hit than a non-Force Player. Lot of analysts seemed to be of the opinion that getting Winovich on Day 2 was better than taking Rashan Gary in Round 1, and it looks like the NFL's best agree. Aaron Schatz: Heh. Sounds like a case of analytics vs. analytics! Actually, I'll straight-out ask: what's Justis' analytical definition of a "Force Player?" Derrik Klassen: Believe this was the last time Justis actually wrote about Force Players in an article instead of just tweets. Cale Clinton: Newly drafted Pittsburgh Steeler Justin Layne had one of his best games of his season in a battle against Arizona State and wide receiver N'Keal Harry. This now looks like there could be a sequel or two to that matchup coming in the AFC playoffs. Dave Bernreuther: ... if the Steelers make the playoffs, that is. Derrik Klassen: I was a bit low on Justin Layne in my Futures column, but I actually think the middle of the third round is fair for someone of his potential. Shouldn't play right away and may not be pressured to as a mid-third. Hope he develops. Bryan Knowles: It's apparently that time in the draft where you ignore need and just add to crowded depth charts. Houston takes a tight end, Kahale Warring! The Patriots take a running back, Damien Harris! There's just not enough snaps for either team there. Aaron Schatz: If there's one element of analytics that doesn't seem to be getting through to Bill Belichick, it's the idea that running backs are interchangeable. Tom Gower: Didn't the Patriots use a first-round pick on Sony Michel last year? Isn't Damien Harris the same sort of run-oriented back who could maybe catch a couple passes? I know it's the third round, but running back didn't seem like a New England need unless I'm missing something. And Houston the pick before took another tight end, and they have four of them. It feels like the two teams need to trade picks, because the Texans' alternatives to Lamar Miller right now are D'Onta Foreman further removed from an Achilles injury and future non-football players. Bryan Knowles: I normally get really annoyed at all these old players going on mini-monologues to announced their Day 2 picks. Most of these players are not as good at giving mini-monologues as Pat McAfee. Cale Clinton: Add Penn State's Connor McGovern to the list of run-friendly Cowboys linemen. Dallas has always struggled with depth at the line and always seem to have a big injury at the position every year. Great depth piece in the short term, and hopefully a future starter down the road. Aaron Schatz: OK, Rivers, you can just go ahead and put Connor McGovern on the FOA 2020 Top 25 Prospects list now. Bryan Knowles: It happens every year eventually. Trey Pipkins (LAC, 91st overall) is the first player drafted that I hadn't heard of; I didn't do a lot of dipping into Division II offensive linemen this year. We didn't say this at all yesterday, so I'll chime in now -- the Giants just made a good pick, taking Oshane Ximines at 95. They really, really needed edge rushers, and while Ximines is no Josh Allen, he was the best left on the board. Also, he has a much, much more fun name than Josh Allen. Vincent Verhei: Checking in near the end of the third round after being out later than I expected:

  • Put me in the camp that thinks the Dolphins got a steal on Rosen. That said, I'm surprised they were the team that made the deal -- does this jeopardize their chance of getting Tua Tagavaialoa in 2020? Nobody else made a better offer? If I was the Chargers or Patriots I'd have offered more than that -- you get a good backup with first-round upside and a year to evaluate whether he's your next successor.
  • The Seahawks like athletic studs, which explains how they ended up with Collier, Blair, and Metcalf. But if you can explain why they took Utah linebacker Cody Barton in the third ... Bobby Wagner is still around and next to get an extension, and K.J. Wright just re-signed in March. Barton also played safety in college -- maybe he'll play more of a box safety in Seattle?

Bryan Knowles: I feel better for blanking on a pick, because the Jaguars just blanked NFL Network. They had nothing -- no video, no picture, no nothing -- for Quincy Williams. They stumped the truck, and a day early! Vincent Verhei: Carolina gets Will Grier. Doesn't seem like a need, but then, this team started Kyle Allen AND Taylor Heinicke last year. Cale Clinton: Trent Brown cashed out in free agency, but the New England Patriots keep the revolving door of offensive linemen rolling with Yodny Cajuste. A great pass pro left tackle, his quad/hip injury kept him out of the top 50. Cajuste's injury seems easier to come back from than Isaiah Wynn's Achilles tear, and many people believe that Cajuste will be ready for the start of the season if not training camp. The reigning Super Bowl champions continue to get richer. Aaron Schatz: Grier at Number 100 just makes the QBASE line. So here are some updated QBASE numbers with two changes. First, I've updated players with their actual selection position. Second, I'm going to discount Daniel Jones for the year he had a 56.5 percent completion rate, which is just above the past limit for counting seasons. It gives us results that make a lot more sense: Kyler Murray, 595 Dwayne Haskins, 465 Daniel Jones, 279 Drew Lock, 99 Will Grier, -240

Comments

24 comments, Last at 08 May 2019, 5:17am

1 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

Tom Gower: Didn't the Patriots use a first-round pick on Sony Michel last year? Isn't Damien Harris the same sort of run-oriented back who could maybe catch a couple passes? I know it's the third round, but running back didn't seem like a New England need unless I'm missing something.

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They are not a need, but this guy is going to challenge Burkhead (injury prone) and Brandon Bolden (not so good outside ST) as the 2nd Run-oriented RB option. Plus, last year they had to use Cordarrelle Patterson as a starting RB in a couple of games.

@Rosen trade: put me in the Dolphins-won columen. They gave peanuts for a guy which they did a lot of research last year (so they already liked him), plus he will be in the book for very few money. 2020 draft capital is still there, so next year they have the ammo to look for another one if he stinks.

Cardinals panicked, the wisest move (apart from trading him before draft) would be wait for a big injury for the starting QB in a contender team and then do the deal.

2 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

Tannenbaum isn't the trainwreck everyone at FO thinks he is. He engineered stealing Curtis Martin away from the Pats, drafted D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Nick Mangold and Darrelle Revis, and built a team that made it to two consecutive championship games. They were only embarrassing the buttfumble year under him. To be honest, the Jets were run by three guys from 2000 to 2011: Tannenbaum, Terry Bradway, and Joey Clinkscales. When Clinkscales left for Oakland is when the wheels came off.

By the way, are we sure Gettleman is watching tape on that Wii? I figure he's playing Madden to figure out who to sign and draft.

3 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

Whatever, he was also at Miami and believe me, he's every bit the train-wreck everyone thinks he is. Basically his issue is he has no sense of planning; he lives completely in the present, so he simply does whatever strikes him as best on any given day without any concern for the consequences. Just take a look at Rashad Jones' contract a 30-something SS -on a team that also has a player who can start at SS in Tim McDonald- with an incredible cap number and who is basically uncuttable both this year and even the next. Every single year he was in Miami the offseason strategy was different.

Don't even get me started on Mike Tannenbaum.

17 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

You're giving Tannenbaum credit for Curtis Martin? When Parcells was the GM of the Jets at the time and also was Martin's former head coach in New England? And contact between Martin and the Jets was initiated by Martin's agent?

As for "stealing", Martin was a free agent at the time. The Pats foolishly low-balled him and then suffered without good RB play for the better part of 15 years (with the exception of one year of Corey Dillon's and Robert Edwards' promising rookie year.)

5 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

Nobody commented about the Packers two picks. No big deal. Neither was all that exciting. I was pretty happy with both of them. Jenkins is a versatile OL who may eventually be a starter; he's played every position but RG. Sternberger is essentially a shorter and younger Jimmy Graham, so if he can learn to block even a little bit he could be a decent starter. Rodgers will give him plenty of chances if he can get open.

The four positions I hoped Gutekunst would address were OL, TE, FS, and edge rusher, in no particular order. The draft is still a crap shoot, but at least they have four decent prospects at those positions. Don't care what happens today as it's mostly long shots, depth, and special teams fodder.

7 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

I'm not sure where the idea that the Texans don't need a tight end comes from. They have Griffin, who is terrible and just got arrested, two journeymen backups on cheap one year contracts in Fells and Adams, and two unproven young guys called Jordan. Maybe Akins or Thomas works out, but it's hardly guaranteed.

8 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

We'll never know what Elway really thinks about Drew Lock, but IF Elway thinks Lock is a franchise QB, would it have made more sense to trade up into the bottom of the 1st rd and get the 5th year contract option? And IF Elway does NOT think Lock is a franchise QB, why trade up to get him?

OK, it's probably not binary and Elway probably has assigned some mental probability to the likelihood Lock is a franchise QB. My point is that there is some value to having a player, esp a QB, for 4+1 cheap years vs. only 4. What is that value?

12 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

Wish I remembered who it was, but I saw someone connected to FO (or in the FO orbit) point out on twitter over the weekend that the hit rate on draft picks really starts to decline in the last 1/3 of the first round and speculated that, once you get into the 20s, trading back into the first just to get the 5th year option for a player probably doesn't pay off. It would be interesting to see whether that holds up if you do the math. Maybe the potential upside at QB gives it a boost?

13 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

Having seen, I want to say Chase Stuart's, AV for draft picks, I don't recall a cut-off point where 1st rounders would have considerably more chance to bust, but rather a more or less constant decline with each pick. Maybe someone has analyzed the data to see if the chance to bust grows exponentially?

15 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

Football Perspective charts do not account for the 5th years-option. The Harvard chart (posted also here some years ago) did that, or at least they put some drop-off for whatever reasons after the 32th.

You can see the graphical comparison of the first 100 picks value here ->

https://tinyurl.com/y39lvb42

9 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

Gettleman's claiming both Washington and Denver would have taken Daniel Jones before the 17th pick came up.

Which seems actually plausible to me.

I thought both Denver and Washington had pretty logical drafts, by the way. But what do I know?

11 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

"Ryan Pace gives New England a future draft pick in trading up for the second consecutive season. STOP THAT." He is now 4-for-4 on trading up in drafts, correct? On the one hand, the Bears really need to do everything they can to win in the next 2 years while Mitch is cheap, but on the other hand, they're going to need to develop some cheap young players to replace guys who are aging and/or too expensive to resign.

16 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

Now I'm curious...I want to go look at all the trades! I generally am against the way Pace has been trading up, because he's running short of a lot of picks, but I haven't really looked at them. Okay...

I wouldn't count the Mitch trade as a win. Even if you think Trubisky is/will be a good QB, he has still been worse than both Watson and Mahomes, and there's no particular reason to believe that will change. So trading up the one spot just to get Trubisky seems unnecessary to me.

The Miller trade...meh. There are some WRs that had comparable or better seasons drafted afterward (just looking at PFR, I see Tre'Quan Smith, Marques Valdez-Scantling, Antonio Callaway), but not so great as to be clear. And Miller seems to be a good player, so it's probably OK. I didn't like trading away picks on top of the Mack trade, especially for a likely #3 WR (in the current depth chart), but I can't really argue definitively against it.

I would have a hard time definitively arguing against the Floyd trade, too, I guess. I don't think he's been a great player, so it's hard to justify trading up for him. But on the other hand, it's not clear that there were any other better EDGE players drafted after him, so they probably got the best guy available at the position. I wouldn't have traded to get that, but it's hard to argue that they didn't accomplish what they were trying to do.

The Kwiatkoski trade is also meh with a shade towards bad for me. He seems to be a decent player, sure, but I don't think anyone wants him as a starter. On the other hand, it doesn't look like there was anyone better at ILB taken later in that draft. But overall, trading away draft picks to secure a backup off-ball linebacker seems unwise.

Trading up for Eddie Jackson...I don't even feel the need to check it. Clear win.

So I guess I would judge that as 1-2 with 2 walks and a sacrifice fly.

19 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

God, I completely forgot that Kwiatkoski was a trade up.

We'll never know for sure but I remain convinced that Trubisky would have been there at 3 had the Bears not traded, and it would take something pretty surprising for him to turn out to be better than both Mahomes and Watson (I mean, let's be honest, I didn't even really need to include Watson there). I don't know how fair it is to blame Pace for not seeing Mahomes as the best QB in the class, given that so many other teams passed on him and the Chiefs were thought to be a little crazy for trading up to get him like they did. If you sort of split the difference and say that Pace should've judged them to be roughly equivalent, then it's definitely hard to justify the trade.

20 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

The rumours I heard immediately after the draft were that the Texans war room were not at all happy when the Chiefs traded up for Mahomes. Not that they didn't like Watson, but Mahomes was the one they were really hoping to trade up and grab themselves. So it probably wasn't only the Chiefs that liked him.

21 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

Yeah...my point is that, in order to justify that trade up, you have to be A) reasonably certain that Trubisky won't be available to you if you don't trade up, and B) very sure that Trubisky will be better than any option you would get if you don't trade up.

Since they only moved up one, A) is only true if someone else trade with the 49ers, and I've yet to hear anyone say that somebody else tried to do that. So I think A) is pretty unlikely. B) is also unlikely, IMO; there were so many different opinions on the QBs before the draft, it seemed extremely unlikely that you could know FOR CERTAIN which one was going to be best. Liking Trubisky better than Watson or Mahomes is one thing; stating that he was definitely going to be better is assigning confidence to assessments that I think is unwarranted (for any front office). I thought the correct move should have been to stay at 3 and take who fell to you and keep your draft capital.

22 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

It's a confidence of experts problem. Experts are paid to express certainty about uncertain matters. It's one thing to decide this is the guy we want if he's available, and another to give away draft capital in order to get him when another player at his position will be available.

Trading down and accumulating more picks gives you more chances to be right, and therefore more often than not will turn out to be the better course. Or at least the low variability course.

QB play is so critical to success in football, however, that logic goes out the window when you discuss QBs. Careers are made or lost based on the success of your team's QB. Would love to see a QB-needy team bring 4 late round / UDFA QBs to camp and let them battle it out instead of spending high draft capital on "their guy", but that's not the way the NFL is oriented. Teams focus more on picking the next Peyton Manning / Andrew Luck, rather than putting an organizational effort into finding the next Tom Brady / Kurt Warner.

23 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

The 90s Packers, after using a 1st round pick to acquire Favre in 1992, continued to bring in a lot of developmental QBs as mid-to-late round draft picks: Ty Detmer (92-9th), Mark Brunell (93-5th), Jay Barker (95-5th), Kyle Wachholz (96-7th), Ron McAda (97-7th), Matt Hasslebeck (98-6th), Aaron Brooks (99-4th). They also famously had Kurt Warner in training camp as a UDFA in 1994.

The hit rate there in terms of finding NFL starters is actually quite good, but those guys faced no immediate pressure to play and mostly didn't have to compete with each other for practice snaps at the same time. Actually, Kurt Warner did have to compete for snaps with Favre, Brunell and Detmer, and that might be a big reason why he didn't catch on until much later. (The Packers' ability to evaluate QB talent at this point in time certainly doesn't appear to have been the issue.)

Another problem is that there is still a scarcity of NFL-caliber QB talent available in a given year, and if a team started taking a bunch of them off the board, other teams might catch on and start picking guys they are interested in sooner.

24 Re: Audibles at the Line: 2019 NFL Draft Day Two

There's a personal element to it, also. A GM knows that when picking a QB high in the draft he is going to be defined by that pick. How it pans out will likely have a major effect on team performance. Even if the QB is good and the team is bad, that is OK because it gives hope (and thus prolongs tenure). The QB is the face of the team. It's like a choosing a business partner.

In that context it's completely natural that GMs will overpay for the QB that they really, personally, want. Imagine having your career (particularly if you fail) defined by your choice of QB, and that person not being the one you really wanted.