compiled by Andrew Potter
Each Sunday, the FO staff sends around emails about the games that each of us are watching. We share information about the games that the rest of the group might not be watching, ask questions, and keep everyone else informed about which games they might want to tune into (if they can).
On Monday, we compile a digest of those emails and produce this feature. By its nature, it can be disjointed and dissimilar to the other articles on the site.
While these emails are generally written with Audibles in mind, they do not represent a standard review of all the games each week. That means we aren't going to cover every game, or every important play. We watch the games that we, as fans, are interested in watching, so your favorite team's game might not be covered to your fullest desires or even at all. (If you are a Seahawks or Patriots fan, you are probably in luck; if you are a Lions fan, not so much.) We have no intention of adding new authors solely to cover every game on a given Sunday, nor will we watch a different game from the ones that we're personally interested in watching just to ensure that Audibles covers every game.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28 at Baltimore Ravens 24
Scott Spratt: It seems silly to say, but the Ravens could use a win against the Steelers today to stop the narrative that they can't handle the best teams in the NFL. Well, they are off to a poor start with it as Lamar Jackson didn't see linebacker (and Devin Bush replacement) Robert Spillane and threw a pick-six on the third play of the game.
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) November 1, 2020
Bryan Knowles: The only time Lamar Jackson has started against the Steelers, he threw three interceptions, back in Week 5, 2019. Well, he's on pace to break that mark today.
Bryan Knowles: The thing that got Baltimore's offense going is a somewhat questionable unnecessary roughness call giving the Ravens a first down on a third-and-7. The flag got thrown because Jackson's a quarterback; I really am not sure that a similar hit on a running back would have been flagged, and Jackson was beyond the line of scrimmage and running. Given new life, Jackson hits Willie Snead on a little short route that Snead breaks for 34 yards, setting up a Miles Boykin touchdown a few plays later.
Jackson has had to dance in the pocket a ton, as the Steelers are getting consistent pressure. I mean, Jackson's not the type to stay stationary in the backfield anyway, but it's especially notable today. Sometimes, that generates picks, like the first drive. Other times, Jackson makes something happen on plays that would have been disasters for 95% of quarterbacks out there. Love watching him.
Scott Spratt: Steelers tight end Eric Ebron dropped a bunny catchable pass.
— Slightly Biased (@BiasedSlightly) November 1, 2020
I would give him the benefit of the doubt since it has been raining. There is bad weather all over the northeast for today's games. But Ebron also has 21 drops since 2017 according to Sportradar, third-most among tight ends.
Scott Spratt: Two days after the Ravens extended him for nearly $100 million, offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley is being carted off the field after T.J. Watt rolled up on him.
Bryan Knowles: This one has slowed down a bit after the teams exchanged touchdowns early on. Remember, Pittsburgh's score came on a pick-six; they only have 41 yards of offense. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't look accurate, and his receivers are dropping the ball -- and fumbling, too. Both teams exchanged fumbles, and I'd take a swing and guess the weather conditions are hindering them there -- it's slick, if not pouring, with rain.
So, if passing isn't working, you run. The Ravens finally put it together with a nine-play, 80-yard touchdown drive featuring eight runs, including pickups of 25, 12, and 14. The only pass of the drive gets the Ravens down inside the 10, and a couple of plays later, Gus Edwards finds the end zone. THAT was a drive that reminds you of last year's Ravens; the running options and just general imposing of their will on a very good defense. We haven't seen as much of that this year -- yes, they're 5-1, but a slightly shakier 5-1. That drive, however, was a clinic.
14-7 Ravens midway through the second quarter.
Bryan Knowles: At halftime, the Ravens are up to 179 yards rushing against the No. 1 rushing defense by DVOA. The Steelers are very, very fortunate to be down just 10 points; they are getting chewed up and spat out by an offensive line that's missing Ronnie Stanley.
Vince Verhei: Bryan, that's stunning. Pittsburgh wasn't just No. 1 in run defense DVOA, they were threatening to break the record for adjusted line yards. How much of that production has been Lamar Jackson? Have there been a few long runs that have inflated those numbers?
Bryan Knowles: Jackson has 54 yards, so that's not helping Pittsburgh -- but Gus Edwards has 56 yards on 10 carries, and J.K. Dobbins has 69 yards on just eight. All three of them have runs of at least 14 yards; Dobbins and Edwards have runs of 25 or more. So, yeah, those numbers might be a little inflated, but it's not like they're getting stuffed on a regular basis, either. That nine-play scoring drive I referenced earlier had runs of 25, 6, 12, 3, 14, 3, 5, and 1 for a touchdown. Their ensuing drive had runs of 4, 2, 9, 4, 8, 4 and 8 -- they're having successful runs on almost every play.
Scott Spratt: Maybe the Ravens should have stuck with the running. Lamar Jackson threw another really bad interception, this one to Alex Highsmith.
Lamar Jackson picked again
— Slightly Biased (@BiasedSlightly) November 1, 2020
A couple of plays later, Ben Roethlisberger found Eric Ebron for a touchdown, and this game is close again at 17-14 Ravens.
Bryan Knowles: Pittsburgh's offense has come at the hands of Lamar Jackson, who just threw his second interception of the day, joining a fumble earlier today -- remember, he had three turnovers in his only other start against Pittsburgh, too. I think there was a miscommunication issue there. Jackson lofted the ball over Patrick Ricard; he may have thought Ricard was going to go deeper downfield rather than cut it off on the screen. Either way, easy INT for Alex Highsmith, and that results in a Roethlisberger touchdown to a wide-open Eric Ebron a couple of plays later.
17-14 Ravens, and the Steelers are somehow still in this game, early in the third quarter.
Bryan Knowles: And the Steelers take the lead!
The Ravens go three-and-out on their ensuing drive after the touchdown and have to punt it right back. That results in the longest drive of the day for either team -- a 77-yard march to paydirt, with lots of short, accurate passes from Big Ben, who has woken up here in the second half. Lots of Chase Claypool, and JuJu Smith-Schuster's second and third catches of the day, capped off by a James Conner touchdown plunge.
The Steelers are being outgained 260-166 and have yet to show they can even slow down the Ravens' running game, but Jackson's interceptions and general poor passing day have helped Pittsburgh build to a 21-17 lead midway through the third quarter. Wow.
Scott Spratt: In accordance with Vince's rule that we show video on every awesome Lamar Jackson run:
This just in: Lamar Jackson is fast
— SportsBetting.com (@WeSportsBetting) November 1, 2020
That was called back for holding. Whomp.
Bryan Knowles: Willie Snead is quietly having a big day. Four catches for 74 yards doesn't sound huge, but two of those catches were 20-plus yards, mostly YAC, for huge, drive-continuing conversions. When you consider the rest of the Ravens have just 94 receiving yards, you can see how Snead's carrying the receiving corps today.
A couple of plays later, Jackson hits Marquise Brown in the back corner of the end zone. It's ruled incomplete as Brown is falling out of bounds, but it's exceptionally close. Upon review, it looks like Brown's shin just barely scrapes the grass, but it ends up standing as an incomplete. So, the very next play, Jackson goes back to Brown again, and this time there's no question --touchdown, 24-21 Ravens lead early in the fourth quarter.
That makes 30 straight games with 20-plus points for the Ravens, tying the Peyton Manning Broncos' record from 2012 to 2014.
Bryan Knowles: We go back and forth here as penalties hamper the Ravens --- they were flagged for both a face-mask and a 20-yard pass interference play, helping the Steelers put together the longest drive of the game. The 80-yard drive was all passes, including four straight completions to JuJu, who was shut out in the first half. Chase Claypool gets the touchdown as the Steelers take the lead back, 28-24.
There's still 7:29 left here, so plenty of time for six or seven more lead changes, but I'm glad this second half became more competitive. Steelers-Ravens game should always, by law, go down to the last possession.
Vince Verhei: This game came on right after the Steelers went up 28-24. Still plenty of time left, so the Ravens haven't panicked. They're just going speed option, handoff, speed option, handoff, over and over. It's like a 1980s Big 8 offense. And it's working! They've already gone 60 yards in six plays, with a first down at the Pittsburgh 15, as the game stops for an injury to Cameron Heyward. None of this is good news for Pittsburgh.
From there, Jackson hands off twice more for 5 more yards. Third down, he finally drops back to pass, but scrambles for a gain of 2. So it's fourth-and-3 at Pittsburgh 10 at the two-minute warning, Ravens down 28-24 and looking for a go-ahead touchdown.
Bryan Knowles: And DVOA's No. 1 ranked run defense steps up! Lamar Jackson tries to take it himself, and the Steelers stiffen and hold him. The Ravens still have two time-outs and there's 1:54 left, so it's not game over, but what a time to get a run stop. Wow.
Bryan Knowles: A first down will end the game for Pittsburgh, but Patrick Queen bursts through the line on third down to stop James Conner in the backfield! The Ravens will have just under a minute to try to find the end zone. Big defensive stops, things coming down to the last drive -- this is Ravens-Steelers. The Elders of the Rivalry will be pleased.
Bryan Knowles: No dice! The Ravens hit Snead again, picking up 32 yards on fourth-and-2, but that takes long enough that there's only eight seconds left by the time they get up and spike it. They look for Snead again in the end zone, but this time, Pittsburgh breaks it up, hangs on to the 28-24 victory, and remains undefeated.
Hell of a game.
Los Angeles Rams 17 at Miami Dolphins 28
Bryan Knowles: I take issue with RedZone saying that the "Dolphins have set their clocks back … to the future! ... as Tua Tagliova gets his first start." Clearly, the better joke is "The Dolphins' clocks have changed ... to Tua Time." That's a very serious professional criticism, there.
Scott Spratt: Welcome to the NFL, Tua Tagovailoa!
Tua Tagovailoa gets BLASTED on his first dropback of his NFL career. #Rams recover the fumble.
Welcome to the NFL.pic.twitter.com/tRNjBOZvof
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) November 1, 2020
Aaron Donald forced the fumble, but it was actually Michael Brockers that blew him up.
Scott Spratt: It's a big day for quarterbacks not seeing big men between them and their targets. This time, Jared Goff throws the ball to avoid an unblocked blitzer but straight into the hands of defensive tackle Christian Wilkins.
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 1, 2020
The Rams already scored a touchdown on a short field that was the result of a turnover. Now, the Dolphins can try to do the same to even the score at 7-7.
Vince Verhei: Score tied at 7-7 as Tagovailoa hits Devante Parker for a 3-yard touchdown on third-and-goal on the last play of the first quarter. That was the drive that started at the Rams 33, set up by Goff's interception on the zone blitz. Tagovailoa threw for two first downs on the drive, the other a 15-yard gain to Jakeem Grant on a deep curl. The Rams moved Jalen Ramsey into the slot, so Miami targeted David Long on that play. And Tagovailoa really needed that drive, because he had looked rough earlier -- not just the strip-sack, but a lot of missed throws. The Dolphins have used a lot of rollouts to the left out of pistol sets, playing to his strengths, but he had still been struggling badly up to that point.
Speaking of struggling badly -- hey, Jared Goff, wake up! He's only 4-of-11 up to this point, with the interception and I think three other passes batted or tipped at the line. The good news for the Rams is that they can run, and the Dolphins are last in run defense DVOA. Darrell Henderson is up to 48 yards on only six carries; Robert Woods added a 4-yard touchdown on a jet sweep.
Aaron Schatz: The Rams punted from the Miami 36. If they don't trust new kicker Kai Forbath to try a 54-yarder in good weather, what are they even doing with him on the roster? Rams get rescued from this mistake when Myles Gaskin immediately coughs the ball up and the Rams get it back on the Dolphins 7.
Aaron Schatz: And then the Rams immediately give the ball back -- sack of Jared Goff, picked up by Andrew Van Ginkel for a 78-yard strip-six. What a crazy turn of events. 14-7 Dolphins.
Bryan Knowles: And then the Rams get UNrescued! Emmanuel Ogbah comes off the edge and CRUSHES Goff, who fumbles. Andrew Van Ginkel scoops it up and runs back 78 yards for the score, so the scaredy-cat punt is punished ... sorta.
Scott Spratt: Check the bottom right of your screen.
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) November 1, 2020
Vince Verhei: Goff has been freakin' awful today. He had no excuse to not see that unblocked blitzer in his face, and he has thrown several passes that could have been intercepted in addition to the one that was.
Vince Verhei: And yes, the Fox crew was so surprised they credited that as a Rams touchdown and added seven points to the L.A. score.
Vince Verhei: Following the fumble-six, Rams go three-and-out, with Goff throwing incomplete on second and third down. MVPunter Johnny Hekker booms the punt 60 yards, but Jakeem Grant weaves to his right, slips a few tackles, and zooms into the end zone for an 88-yard touchdown ... which Fox credits to Andrew Van Ginkle. Is Goff running the graphics department too?
Scott Spratt: And we were just joking about Van Ginkel nearly pulling a Daniel Jones and falling down on his fumble return touchdown. Grant seems like a slightly more natural runner haha.
— Greg Likens (@GregLikens) November 1, 2020
Scott Spratt: With a little less than five minutes left in the first half, Goff is at 8-of-20 for 82 yards and two interceptions. I think you can somewhat credit the Dolphins defense, which is sixth in DVOA against the pass and rising with both Xavien Howard and Byron Jones healthy at cornerback. But also of note, Goff has averaged 299 yards, 1.84 TDs, and 0.63 INTs per game at home since 2018 and 272, 1.55, and 1.00 on the road. He's one of the more extreme home/road quarterbacks but rarely is mentioned alongside the Breeses of the world.
Dave Bernreuther: Vince beat me to all the graphical mishaps and handled the Goff struggles more fairly, but I do still have something to add here:
Tua getting to go from 0-7 to 21-7 by leading a 33-yard drive and watching as his defense and special teams then score touchdowns is the type of luck that some quarterbacks don't ever receive in that short a window in a single game over very long careers. He has it now in the first half. Hard to ask for a better way to break in a new quarterback than that. Good for the Dolphins for building a team that lets your rookie quarterback ease in without having to do too much.
On the flip side ... this game is doing very little to contradict the "the Rams are frauds" narrative so far.
And yeah. Goff is just awful. Even some of his completions have looked bad, and several passes are fluttering like he got hit as he threw ... but he didn't.
And as I type that he turns it over AGAIN!
Vince Verhei: That last interception came as a result of another unblocked blitzer, with Jerome Baker coming free up the middle to hit Goff during the throw. I'd put the pressure on the line instead of Goff there -- you can't just let a guy come untouched through the A-gap! -- but Goff's reaction to that pressure was poor.
#Rams Jared Goff is 8 of 20 passing for 0 TDs and 2 INTs.
Only 82 yards in 20 attemptspic.twitter.com/1sDVuV0FwS
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 1, 2020
The Rams force a quick punt, but Goff turns the ball over AGAIN. Shaq Lawson comes around the edge to knock the ball free, and Kyle Van Noy picks it up and runs it down to the 1.
Scott Spratt: Is there a prevailing "the Rams are frauds" narrative, Dave? I don't think I was aware of that. They entered today at 5-2 and are seventh in DVOA. I guess the issue is their five wins are against the entire NFC East and the Bears?
Bryan Knowles: The Dolphins have 27 points. They have 56 offensive yards.
There have been three games in NFL history where a team had less than 2.1 times as many yards as points. Two of them were shutouts where the losing team had negative yards on the day. The third was the 2002 Texans, who beat the Steelers 24-6 on a day they only picked up 47 yards, bolstered by three defensive touchdowns. I'm assuming the Dolphins will gain some offense in the second half, but they're in some rarified company at the moment.
Dave Bernreuther: That is exactly the issue, Scott. The fact that the best they've looked, to my eyes anyway, was actually against the Bills in a loss has made me a buyer of that theory.
I thought it was a big topic of conversation after the 49ers looked so good against them in that "upset."
Vince Verhei: Rams show some signs of life and get a field goal to go into halftime down 28-10. Dolphins got all the splash plays in the first half which covers up just how useless their own offense has been. Five first downs and 54 yards in 22 plays is ... less than ideal. Let's not forget that the Rams trailed Buffalo 28-3 and came back to take the lead earlier this year. This game's not over -- the Dolphins can't expect their defense to force four turnovers in a half again. They're going to need some kind of offensive production to finish this one off.
Vince Verhei: After a rollercoaster first half, the third quarter here was refreshingly peaceful. Five straight punts to open the half, then a Goff incompletion on fourth-and-10 from the 41. The Dolphins are up to 11 passes defensed now, which is a ton -- coming into today, there were three teams that only had 16 all season. But their own offense is just as inept. The defining play of this game may not be any of the turnovers, but the Dolphins lining Tagovailoa out wide with Malcolm Perry at quarterback. Donald stuffed the Wildfish or whatever for a 5-yard loss and just shook his head with disdain.
alright let's cut this sh*t out pic.twitter.com/7lyRY2lpJW
— josh houtz (@houtz) November 1, 2020
Aaron Schatz: Since the Dolphins were the team that introduced the Wildcat to the NFL, shouldn't a Dolphins Wildcat still be the Wildcat?
Vince Verhei: That's fair.
Vince Verhei: While the Dolphins have just kept on punting, the Rams got a touchdown on Goff's best drive of the day (7-of-7 for 84 yards by my counting-in-my-head math), then got into position for a field goal that would have made this an eight-point game. But Kai Forbath's try from 48 goes way, WAY left. Dolphins still up 28-17 with under four minutes to go, and this should be a done deal.
Bryan Knowles: Just to wrap up the earlier stat, the Dolphins finished with 28 points and just 145 offensive yards. They are the 40th team since 1940 to win with less than 5.2 yards per point or less, and only the third since 2010, behind the 2012 Ryan Lindley Cardinals and the 2018 Mitchell Trubisky Bears.
New York Jets 9 at Kansas City Chiefs 35
Scott Spratt: This will probably be my only Chiefs update today. I'm mostly just using this 30-yard Mecole Hardman touchdown as an excuse to bring up the fact that they opened as 21-point favorites over the Jets. Does anyone remember an NFL line in the 20s from recent seasons?
A little trick and a treat for the Chiefs as Mecole Hardman scores from 30 yards out
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 1, 2020
Aaron Schatz: Believe it or not, there were TWO lines in the 20s just last year, even earlier in the season! Both in Week 3!
- DAL -22.5 MIA (cover)
- NE -21 NYJ (did not cover)
Dave Bernreuther: When you're playing the best, you've got to pull out all the stops and run a bit of David strategy, right? The Chiefs do just that, busting out a fake punt from near midfield to keep a drive alive with a great pass to a wide open Byron Pringle, whose name makes me giggle every time.
What's that? Oh ... it's the *Jets* that are David in this matchup?
On the very next play, Tyreek Hill breaks Ashtyn Davis' ankles and comes wide open in the end zone, and Patrick Mahomes hits him with a laser to make it 14-3 and, let's be honest, put this one away early.
The only thing I can think of is this clip from a forgotten and (IMHO) hugely underrated movie:
Minnesota Vikings 28 at Green Bay Packers 22
Carl Yedor: We might not see an incredible amount of points in this one if only because both teams can methodically move the ball down the field and chew up clock in the process. After one drive for each team, we're sitting at 47 seconds remaining in the first quarter, with Davante Adams and Dalvin Cook accounting for the touchdowns in a 7-7 ballgame. The Packers converted a fourth-and-1 from the 24 to extend their drive; with Mason Crosby banged up during the week, we might see some more aggressiveness than usual out of Green Bay. Minnesota may not have much of a choice but to match that level of offensive aggressiveness considering how banged up they are on defense.
Bryan Knowles: Defense? What defense. The first half of this one had four completed drives, all resulting in touchdowns (plus a run on a fifth drive to get the clock to all 0:00s). I'm sure it has happened before, but I can't think of another game off the top of my head with just two possessions for each team in a half.
Carl Yedor: Two total drives later and the story is still the same. Adams and Cook matched scores again to cap off two more lengthy drives, and it's now 14-14 with 30 seconds left in the half. Green Bay runs the ball up the middle on its first play and kills the clock for the first half. Four total drives (excluding the meaningless last 30 seconds), all totaling at least 10 plays and at least 67 yards, and four touchdowns. The defenses don't really have an answer for the opposing offenses at all, as both offenses have been able to use a balanced approach to move the ball. As a side note, rookie cornerback Cameron Dantzler suffered a scary hit to the head/neck area and had to be carted off during the second quarter. No definitive word on him yet beyond that they are evaluating him for a neck injury and a concussion.
Carl Yedor: We have a stop! An actual stop! The only non-touchdown drive of the first half was one play to burn the rest of the clock, but on Green Bay's first drive of the second half, they get to the Minnesota 37 on a deep completion to Robert Tonyan before stalling out. Four incompletions (the wind and Crosby's nagging injuries probably prevented a field goal attempt) result in a turnover on downs, giving the Vikings the ball back up 21-14 after they had scored another touchdown with Cook on their first drive of the half. Minnesota's scoring drive was another long one, though it required a bit of help from the Packers' secondary via multiple defensive pass interference calls. We'll see if the defensive play can continue to ratchet up here.
Vince Verhei: You have to smile at the little things in 2020, so let's all enjoy the debut of 3D dots!
Dalvin Cook gained +32 YAC over expectation on his 50-yard TD reception on this screen pass, according to our Expected YAC model.
Yards After Catch: 54
Expected YAC: 22
YAC Over Expected: +32
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 1, 2020
Carl Yedor: A note on the earlier Dantzler injury, they took him to the hospital for further treatment and monitoring but initial tests performed at the stadium were encouraging. His replacement, Kris Boyd, just went down injured during a Packers first down. With three minutes to play, Green Bay is driving to try to cut it to a one-score game, but their offense has been surprisingly stagnant for most of the second half. Penalties have contributed to that, but credit to Minnesota's defense for hanging in there despite their injuries. I say most because Adams just picked up his third touchdown of the day, leading to a two-point conversion from Jamaal Williams. Green Bay will kick off down six, and Vikings fans are biting their nails for the last 2:42.
Scott Spratt: Alert, we are in Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary territory!
Scott Spratt: Aaron Rodgers' Hail Mary attempt:
Aaron Rodgers fumbles the game away for the #Packers
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 1, 2020
I guess that was a false alarm.
New England Patriots 21 at Buffalo Bills 24
Aaron Schatz: Cam Newton has let go a couple of sharp passes today but it's pretty clear the Patriots have no trust in the passing game with four undrafted wide receivers and only one active tight end. Twice they've run the ball on third-and-long. Meanwhile, the Bills are looking good on the offensive line, in part because of getting Jon Feliciano back at left guard. He moved to center in the second drive after Mitch Morse had a concussion. First Bills drive was a ton of runs, remarkable since they rank 32nd in run DVOA coming into this game but they were slicing through the Patriots defense. Second Bills drive had strong coverage by the Patriots so Josh Allen overthrew a guy deep and then had to check down on third down. But still, he had the time to throw. Patriots did get some yardage on their third drive and kicked a field goal after one of those third-and-long runs so it's now 7-3 Buffalo.
Aaron Schatz: Bills go into halftime up 7-6. Josh Allen threw his first pick of the day on what looked like miscommunication, with Stefon Diggs cutting his route too late and not turning around for the ball when it was there, J.C. Jackson picked it off. A completion to Jakobi Meyers and a couple of passes to tight end Ryan Izzo put the Patriots into field goal range to end the second quarter. Meyers is the only wide receiver with a catch today; Damiere Byrd is the only other receiver with a target. I expect the Pats to still come out run-heavy in the second half when they don't have to pass due to a two-minute offense.
Aaron Schatz: Good run blocking by Shaq Mason making up for an illegal use of hands penalty that cost the Patriots a 16-yard gain to Meyers. Patriots started a drive at the Buffalo 37 thanks to a good punt return and then made it all the way for the touchdown. Big play was a 10-yard run by Rex Burkhead on third-and-10, then Damien Harris tiptoeing through traffic for 22 and a touchdown. That Burkhead run is not going to work on third-and-long very often but it did here. Patriots make the two-point conversion with a pass to Meyers and it is 14-14. Feels like Buffalo is underperforming, they've outplayed the Patriots (and outgained them, 6.3 yards per play to 5.0), and this game should not be tied. But it is.
Aaron Schatz: Patriots with a surprise onside kick! It didn't work. Bills take the ball in Patriots territory.
Scott Spratt: Seeing Harris' burst on that touchdown run reminded me to ask you Aaron and other frequent Patriots-watchers: what do you think of Harris? Is he going to keep that No. 1 back job when Sony Michel comes back? Despite Michel's standard statistical success, he has underwhelmed by his advanced stats, notably with -2.7% and -6.4% DVOA in 2018 and 2019.
Aaron Schatz: Harris certainly looks more elusive than Michel does. I think he keeps the job when Michel comes back.
Bills score on that drive off the surprise onside kick, with nine straight runs. It's really remarkable how much better the run blocking looks today, especially on the left side. The goal-to-go series included Allen on QB power and then two players later, QB draw. The power didn't work, but the draw did. 21-14 Buffalo.
Aaron Schatz: Brutal ending to the Patriots-Bills game. The Patriots were driving with time running out and their stellar running attack today had gotten the ball into field goal range. Cam Newton was trying to get it closer or maybe even score a game-winning touchdown and he took it on a keeper and it was punched out by Jordan Zimmer. Dean Marlowe pounced on it immediately for the Bills and they'll take the game 24-21. Patriots put up a damn good fight today, especially their offensive line, but the season is essentially over.
Bryan Knowles: I wouldn't go THAT far for the Patriots -- 8-8 might well earn the seventh seed and Cam looked better today -- but the division is gone, which is not something New England fans are used to on November 1.
Indianapolis Colts 41 at Detroit Lions 21
Bryan Knowles: After a first quarter which featured very little offense -- the Lions scored a touchdown after a blocked punt -- the Colts start their first drive of the second quarter by airing it out. The Lions have been getting pressure, so Philip Rivers counters by rolling out, hitting Mo Alie-Cox on the sidelines on a great concentration play, feet tapping in bounds for 15. Rivers then hits Marcus Johnson for a great 20-yard gain down the middle -- Johnson has really stepped up with T.Y. Hilton struggling this year. And then a lollipop screen to Nyheim Hines turns into a 22-yard touchdown, thanks to a great spin move down by the goal line. Best offensive drive by either team to this point.
7-7 game, early in the second quarter.
Nyheim Hines, wow, what a spin.pic.twitter.com/pDCBVKqlK9
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 1, 2020
Las Vegas Raiders 16 at Cleveland Browns 6
Vince Verhei: It's a cold, windy day in Cleveland, with occasional snow flurries. That's reflected in the low score -- the Raiders are up 6-3 at halftime. I have only been watching this out of the corner of my eye, focusing on Rams-Dolphins instead, but every time I have looked at it, Baker Mayfield has been rolling out to his left and missing an open receiver. The halftime montage showed that Derek Carr has hardly been any better. The Rams game looks about done at this point, so I'll watch more of this in the second half.
Vince Verhei: Well, the third quarter featured nothing but a lot of small ball. The Browns added a field goal to tie the score at 6-6 after this Jarvis Landry touchdown was overruled into an incompletion:
Jarvis Landry putting up the number 13 after this touchdown honoring teammate and friend Odell Beckham Jr. who went down with a knee injury last week.
— Backseat Banter (@BBPodOfficial) November 1, 2020
That drive took 11 plays and more than six minutes. The Raiders responded with 14 plays and the rest of the third quarter ... and they're still driving, with a second-and-goal at the 4. Longest play of the drive was just 11 yards. Just papercut, papercut, papercut. And then on third-and-goal, Carr hits Hunter Renfrow on a nifty little out-and-in route for the touchdown ... but they're reviewing this one too. Looks like the tip of the ball hit the turf and it's going to be incomplete.
Nope -- call on the field stands. Extra point is good, and the Raiders go up 13-6 very early in the fourth quarter.
Bryan Knowles: The Raiders just kicked the rare sub-25-yard field goal that probably was actually the right choice. The Raiders had fourth-and-goal from the 2-yard line and ran Josh Jacobs three straight times -- no dice. Normally, I'd be shouting at them to go for it on fourth-and-inches outside the goal line, but they were sitting on a 13-6 lead with 4:24 left in the game. The field goal makes it a two-score game. That sort of decision gets you fewer points in the long run, but end-of-game strategy is different -- gotta make the Browns, who haven't scored a touchdown all day, have to march down the field twice in four minutes when you have the opportunity. Still -- three cracks from the 2 and you can't get it in? Oof.
Vince Verhei: After the Raiders touchdown, the Browns picked up one first down. On the ensuing third-and-8, David Njoku dropped a short pass that would have picked up a first down. Browns punted on fourth-and-8 from the 50. Tough call there, but it worked out badly for them, going into the end zone for a touchback.
Raiders responded by driving 74 yards in 13 plays, the fifth drive today of 10 plays or more. That includes Derek Carr, historically a terrible runner, keeping the ball on a zone read and running for a first down on second-and-11 (and he still fumbled on the play, though the Raiders recovered). The Browns stood firm at the goal line, but the Raiders still kicked a field goal to go up 16-6 with 4:24 to go.
That ball control by Las Vegas has made this game very short. They have run 65 plays to 35 for the Browns, and the Browns only have five drives as a result. But Las Vegas is still averaging less than 5 yards per play. They're 7-of-13 on third downs, 2-of-2 on fourth downs, and have only committed five penalties.
Aaron Schatz: For Bryan, EdjSports' model has Raiders field goal as the correct move by 3.0% there, even before the delay of game moved it back from the 1 to the 6.
Vince Verhei: Baker Mayfield ran for a first down on fourth-and-1 in the red zone, but from there a series of penalties and incompletions killed the drive. So they ended up trying the field goal, which is fine since they were down 10 ... but the wind pushes Cody Parkey's kick wide to the left, and that should be the end of this one barring something insane.
Tennessee Titans 20 at Cincinnati Bengals 31
Scott Spratt: Wow, Jayon Brown intercepted Joe Burrow to give the Titans a chance to come back in this one, down 20-31 with about two and a half minutes left in the fourth. But the turnover was erased by a questionable defensive pass interference call.
Rob Weintraub: In Joey B we trust!
It's hard to overstate just how good Burrow was in this game, given the fact that his offensive line was made up of dudes who just met on the bus ride to the stadium and the wind was howling up a gale. Andy Dalton would have checked out of this one with 10 minutes to play in the second quarter. Burrow wasn't even touched, which speaks partly to the yeoman effort turned by the likes of Quinton Spain and Billy Price but also Burrow, who yo-yo'd the Titans defense while making some amazing escape-and-throw plays. On one play Burrow faked a step-up in the pocket to draw in a linebacker, then stepped back and zipped one to the receiver crossing into that space. I've only seen Russell Wilson do that. Cincy even scored on four red zone opportunities!
That's three straight games over 30 points for the offense. Right now I'm confident they can hang 30 on anyone save a handful of teams (alas, two of them are division rivals). The wind clearly affected Ryan Tannehill, preventing deep throws, and after a critical end zone pick early in the day Tennessee played the empty yards game for the majority of this one. Jessie Bates continues his All-Pro level play at safety, and rookie linebacker Logan Wilson looks like a keeper. Add in Tee Higgins and it could actually be an impactful draft for the first time in a while.
Nice way to go into the bye week, anyway.
Tom Gower: The first three quarters of this game were a masterclass by the Titans offense of seeing just how well you could move the ball without scoring more than seven points. Even the drive that started on their own 25 with 32 seconds to go in the first half made it into Bengals territory, but the score was Cincinnati leading 24-7 when the Titans began their first possession of the fourth quarter. Ryan Tannehill threw a bad pick in goal-to-go; they got caught in mid-30s no man's land, missing one field goal and punting one; and Tannehill took a sack on third down to take them out of no man's land on another drive. Then they scored a couple of touchdowns down multiple scores in the fourth and had their only "drive" that didn't make it to plus territory, starting on their own 2 with 12 seconds left. This was more on the ground than throwing (Ryan Tannehill was just 6-of-13 for 86 yards at the half), with Corey Davis the only receiver to get volume early, but if you're running the ball efficiently, it still works. They just didn't make the right number of plays on most drives to score despite a general solid level of success.
Cincinnati, by contrast, was able to have a strong level of consistent success and to make enough plays to turn yards into points. The book is out on the Tennessee defense: they don't have a pass rush, and you can pick on the aged (by NFL standards) Johnathan Joseph or whichever player the Titans are currently trying at outside corner in his place. I thought behind an offensive line missing four starters from last week (once Michael Jordan went down Sunday morning with an illness) that the Titans might get pressure and/or Joe Burrow might have a microscopic average time to throw such as Ben Roethlisberger's 2.05 seconds against the Titans last week (per the NFL's Next Gen Stats tracker). Instead, as I write this during Sunday Night Football, Burrow's in the 10-highest ATT per NGS. He still frequently got the ball out quickly, but that was mixed in with enough plays where it seemed clear the Titans were much more intent on avoiding a dangerous Joey B scramble or breaking the pocket and finding a big second-reaction play than they were on sacking him. And, I mean, if Jadeveon Clowney can't bring him down when he gets schemed up nicely for a free rush on what I seem to recall as some kind of loop rush up the middle, then Burrow is clearly in Lamar Jackson's class as a real danger to opposing teams.
I'm trying not to be over the top here, but I came into today viewing this game as a sort of litmus test for the Titans defense. If they couldn't shut down an offense with a rookie quarterback, no receivers who scare you downfield, a banged-up and not very good offensive line, when their strong offense is facing a bad defense they should be able to have success against, putting their defense in favorable game situations, then there's a pretty decent chance it's not going to happen regularly all year. The better-than-it-looks defensive DVOA is built on a strong rate of early-down interceptions and partly on limiting big plays. They did a good job on limiting big plays again (Tennessee's longest play was 27 yards, CIncinnati's 24), but the Bengals offense executed with consistency anyway and Burrow's lone mistake that ended in the hands of a Tennessee defender was wiped out by a pass interference penalty. To the extent it was a litmus test, the Titans are a team with a good offense and a bad defense likely to end up with a record such as the 9-7 they've had the past four seasons, not a serious contender for anything other than an AFC South title.
San Francisco 49ers 27 at Seattle Seahawks 37
Vince Verhei: Bizarre play calling early in this one. Seahawks get the ball first and go WR screen for a loss, sack, WR screen on third-and-forever to punt. I know all their running backs are hurt, but still: Wut.
49ers take over and get to a third-and-5 at the Seattle 37 ... and go direct snap to Jerick McKinnon, with Brandon Aiyuk in the backfield next to him? I assume this was designed to set up a fourth-down attempt, but the Seahawks blow up the play, Damontre Moore tackles McKinnon for a loss, and San Francisco punts. It works out -- Seattle starts out at their 1 -- but that was weird against a team missing its top corner (Shaquill Griffin) and safety (Jamal Adams) and both top pass-rushers (Bruce Irvin, out for the year, and Benson Mayowa, out today).
Bryan Knowles: The 49ers keep shooting themselves in the foot -- not just the too-cute third-down play call, but then back-to-back potential turnovers in the red zone on the subsequent drive. First, JaMichael Hasty fumbles with nothing but Seahawks around, but a Seahawks defender slid out of bounds and touched the ball first -- 49ers dodged a bullet. The very next play, Jimmy Garoppolo throws his patented Terrible Interception, throwing well behind George Kittle and giving the Seahawks the ball right back.
On defense, the 49ers are getting great penetration, but Russell Wilson has been able to complete passes fairly easily. He hits DK Metcalf, who turns on that interception-chasing-down speed, bursting 46 yards for the touchdown. They miss the ensuing extra point, but that still gives them a 6-0 lead at the end of the first quarter.
Scott Spratt: Remember how the pre-draft criticism of DK Metcalf was that he could only run go routes? I don't think that's true.
— NFL Warehouse (@NflWarehouse) November 1, 2020
Vince Verhei: After nearly 15 minutes of some of the worst football you'll ever see, DK Metcalf finally makes a pro-athlete-caliber play, taking a short dig on the left side and cutting all the way across the field, following a great block by Jacob Hollister, and zipping down the right sideline for a 46-yard touchdown. Up to that point, the game was nothing but penalties, tackles for loss, drops, fumbles that should have been recovered by Seattle but the defenders couldn't stay in bounds, and a horrible Jimmy Garoppolo interception from a picture-perfect clean pocket when he threw behind George Kittle.
And after Metcalf's score, the shitshow begins again -- Jason Myers misses the extra point so it's still a 6-0 lead.
Bryan Knowles: Nice bounce-back drive for the 49ers after the interception, though they were aided by a couple of free first downs from Seattle penalties. 60 yards in 14 plays isn't the most efficient drive ever, but hey, it'll get the job done. And, unlike Kyle Shanahan's normal proclivities, the 49ers had a fourth-and-1 and actually went for it, picking it up as JaMycal Hasty continues to get a runout thanks to the injuries throughout the 49ers' running back corps. 7-6 49ers.
As a side note, Bobby Wagner is still everywhere -- five different plays on that drive were "Hasty rushes, tackled by Wagner." Stuck on replay, that drive.
Vince Verhei: 49ers answer with a 14-play, 75-yard drive that takes eight minutes off the clock. I don't know if Tevin Coleman is hurt, but this has been the JaMical Hasty show -- he's up to 11 carries now, to three for Coleman and one for McKinnon. Two of those carries were a fourth-down conversion at the Seattle 27, and then a touchdown on third-and-goal from the 1. The PAT is good and 49ers lead 7-6.
Scott Spratt: Yeah, Bryan, the Seahawks nearly made a goal-line stand there, mostly courtesy of Bobby Wagner. It reminded me of the big difference between the Seahawks No. 9 DVOA run defense and No. 30 DVOA pass defense. The 49ers really aren't the right kind of offense to take advantage of that, but hey, they're up 7-6.
Bryan Knowles: Coleman was certainly hurt coming into today, so maybe they're load-managing him with a game on Thursday to worry about.
Vince Verhei: In particular, Bryan, Wagner's tackle on second-and-goal right before the touchdown. Hasty had a full head of steam but Wagner met him at the 1-yard line and just knocked him backwards. If I was hit that hard my arms and legs would fall off.
Carl Yedor: Niners take the lead on a JaMycal Hasty plunge from the 1-yard line. Nothing crazy there, just a fairly methodical drive working the ball down the field. San Francisco might be limiting Coleman's workload since he just came off of IR, as they stuck with the rookie Hasty despite a fumble earlier in the game. He's running hard and seems to be hitting the holes when they're there, which is all you can really ask from a fifth running back.
Bryan Knowles: DK Metcalf is a problem. The 49ers' secondary is banged up, but I don't know how you cover him at all -- if and when Wilson hits him in stride, it's a near-guarantee score every time. He's already up to 102 yards receiving today, on just six receptions. The 49ers have to figure out some other way of stopping him; doubling him, jamming him at the line (good luck with that), blatant excessive holding -- something. On the last drive, he had a good 15-yard reception, a perfectly-thrown deep ball adding up to 35 more yards, and then a touchdown with a defender draped over him, his second score of the day.
Vince Verhei: Emmanuel Moseley can't stop DK Metcalf. Metcalf scorches him down the sideline for 35 yards. That sets up his own touchdown, as Metcalf beats Moseley on a slant route. Moseley is draped all over him and it's a holding penalty, but that's irrelevant, because Metcalf is superhuman and just shrugs him off and catches the ball anyway.
Carl Yedor: Mark Schlereth can be hit-or-miss on commentary for me, but he's in great form today. You can tell he's best-suited to call games with physical running games, which San Francisco definitely has. We had an awesome comment about deli meats representing the outside of the formation instead of bologna and white bread in the middle of the formation, the lineman classic of complaining about a wide receiver committing a false start, and a good deal of love for the fullbacks early on. We also had the football tough guy comment of being able to go get fourth-and-1 by running it and daring them to stop it (which coincidentally happened to be analytically backed too in that situation). Even when he doesn't explicitly say that he used to play guard on the broadcast, it's pretty clear and, frankly, can be a nice change of pace.
Vince Verhei: It's still 13-7 at halftime after some pretty terrible two-minute stuff by both offenses. In particular, the 49ers had this slow-developing rollout-one-way, wide-receiver-screen-the-other that lost 6 yards and ... man, I don't know what Kyle Shanahan is doing today.
But the real story is how the Seahawks, despite all their injuries, just played their best defensive half of the year. This team is so thin at edge rusher that Stephen Sullivan -- an undrafted rookie who played wide receiver and tight end at LSU -- has been pulled off the practice squad, dropped in on the perimeter, and told to do his best. It's like a position player pitching in baseball. But Wagner's monstrous day has continued -- he got a sack on a blitz, which is one more sack than Seattle had last week, and one more than I expected them to get today.
Bryan Knowles: Some of Shanahan's play calling is the lack of Deebo Samuel -- it's reminiscent of their Week 1 loss against Arizona. It's amazing how much he makes the offense go.
The 49ers don't have the horses out wide to challenge the Seahawks' defense's major problem, covering wide receivers. They don't have wide receivers; they have a flotilla of running backs, some of whom split out wide. Frankly, I'm slightly enthused by the fact that it's "only" 13-7, with the 49ers getting the ball to start the second half. If they can figure out a way to slow down Metcalf -- bear trap in the secondary? -- this game is still very much in the balance.
(In all seriousness: get pressure on Wilson, and get Tavarious Moore on the field for Dre Greenlaw, doubling Metcalf deep -- make Wilson have to use the tight ends to beat you. He can do that, sure, but at least it's something different.)
Bryan Knowles: Bobby Wagner is having a hell of a day. He's everywhere -- sacking Garoppolo in the backfield, slamming into running backs as they try to gain positive yardage, everything. He's always a lock for a good game, but this is above and beyond even by his standards. Seattle is just taking away all the quick wide throws -- Garoppolo is struggling when asked to move past one or two reads. He's not throwing interceptions, at least, but he's absorbing sacks from a defense which doesn't do that.
The Seahawks respond with death by a thousand papercuts -- a lot of short passes, aided by a few holding calls from a clearly frustrated 49ers defense. They kept the Seahawks from going to Metcalf on a bomb, but couldn't stop the offense in general. Seattle up 20-7, and the 49ers need to respond right away or this thing is going to get ugly. Uglier, maybe.
Bryan Knowles: Did I say "respond right away"? I clearly meant Dante Pettis, active only because of the Samuel injury, fumbling the ensuing kickoff, and Seattle scoring another touchdown a few plays later, taking a 20-point lead and pretty much ending the competitive portion of this one.
Carl Yedor: The 49ers' defense looked pretty impressive the past two weeks, but that could have been at least partially a function of who they were playing. Even today, they started out playing pretty darn well on Seattle's first two drives. Not much they could do there on the short field, but they seem to be struggling since those opening couple of drives. Bryan, do you think this is a function of just being too injured against a good offense?
Hopefully Pettis isn't seriously hurt, but this may be the last time he ever sees the field for Shanahan after fumbling there. He has been in the doghouse since basically the start of last season after showing some promise as a rookie.
Bryan Knowles: The flotilla of pass-rushers that are out obviously would have helped, Carl, and Metcalf against Richard Sherman would have been something to see. But Seattle has made a lot of defenses, healthy or not, look silly against them this year. The 49ers do not have an answer for Metcalf, which explains much of the first half, and they have struggled with mobile quarterbacks for three years now. This isn't an "oh, if everyone's healthy, it's not an issue" thing, at the very least.
If anything, I would say the offensive injuries hurt the 49ers today more than the defensive ones, though I suppose the two aren't mutually exclusive.
Vince Verhei: We're approaching the point where the only thing left to be determined is who can get through this game without suffering any more injuries. Tevin Coleman is officially out for San Francisco, and Fred Warner just went down grabbing at his neck. He's walking on the sideline now, so hopefully it's not as bad as it looks. Garoppolo is also walking gingerly on the sideline; they may pull him just because of the score.
Seattle up 27-7 at the end of three, with Seattle having the ball at San Francisco's 35. Metcalf is up to a 10-144-2 statline on only 11 targets. From what I can tell poor Emmanuel Moseley has been left alone out there in coverage when he's clearly not up to the task.
Vince Verhei: Moseley breaks up a pass to Metcalf in the end zone (good for him!) and the Seahawks add a field goal. Nick Mullens does indeed come in at quarterback for San Francisco. George Kittle helps his quarterback with a big catch downfield where he's sandwiched by two guys, but then HE leaves with an ankle injury. The drive does end in a McKinnon touchdown, but Seattle still leads 30-14 with less than 10 minutes to go.
Vince Verhei: And the 49ers force a punt, and zip, zip, zip, Mullens drives them down the field, and there's a 16-yard touchdown to Ross Dwelley, and the lead is cut to 30-20. San Francisco obviously goes for two and appears to convert, but on replay McKinnon was touched down short of the end zone. There's 4:16 to go. The 49ers try an onside kick, but Seattle recovers. San Francisco still has all their timeouts. I can't believe this but I'm thinking Seattle needs to get points here.
Vince Verhei: Seattle does indeed get more points, as a Deejay Dallas touchdown run makes it 37-20, but that's not the play people are going to talk about. Wilson was scrambling and basically faked a slide, but kept running. So Jimmie Ward moved in to tackle him, and Wilson went down, and they flagged Ward for a shot to the head. By the time the tackle was made, Ward was leading his helmet, not his hands or arms or shoulders, so I understand the penalty. But given the gray-area style of Wilson's slide, I also understand why Ward was so upset.
— Coach Yac (@Coach_Yac) November 2, 2020
Carl Yedor: Due to a somewhat bizarre sequence of events, Seattle managed to go down the field and score another touchdown while taking less than 45 seconds off the game clock in the process. After starting with great field position thanks to an onside kick attempt, Seattle accidentally went out of bounds on completions three times, and San Francisco committed a penalty on a Wilson scramble that also stopped the clock. Combine that with three San Francisco timeouts and your end result is a somewhat counterproductive scoring drive.
New Orleans Saints 26 at Chicago Bears 23 (OT)
Aaron Schatz: The Bears just brought in Mitchell Trubisky for one first-and-10 play, just to run a read-option. I know Trubisky had a lot of scrambling value two years ago but is he really a good enough running quarterback to make that a good idea?
Scott Spratt: Is Mitchell Trubisky just Taysom Hill now?
Aaron Schatz: The Saints have three of their top four wide receivers all out today and so Drew Brees hasn't targeted a wide receiver through the first two Saints drives. Which is fine when you get things like Alvin Kamara gaining 47 yards on an angle route when Khalil Mack drops into coverage and seemingly ends up in the wrong zone, but it's a problem when everything you ever throw on third-and-long is going to be way short of the sticks. So the drive stalls out and then Wil Lutz doinks the field goal off the right upright. Still 3-3 at 10:38 left in the second quarter.
Aaron Schatz: Wait, aren't the Bears supposed to be frauds? They aren't playing like it today. The defense has been stellar against the Saints, and the offense has made a few big plays that are enough to give Chicago a lead. Two drives ago, the Bears had a 50-yard bomb to rookie Darnell Mooney and then two plays later, 24-yard touchdown to Allen Robinson. Then after a three-and-out on their next drive, David Montgomery went through a hole the size of a Buick when Demario Davis picked the wrong direction to go to try to tackle him and took the ball 38 yards for the longest run against the Saints this year. Bears stall out but kick a field goal and will likely go into halftime up 13-3. Saints have gone three-and-out on their last two drives, although they finally did target a wide receiver (Tre'Quan Smith) a couple of times.
Aaron Schatz: I spoke too soon, as the Saints went 68 yards in 1:36 before halftime and will go into the half down 13-10 instead of 13-3. It was more short stuff, and the Bears were there to stop any of those passes from getting longer gains, but the Saints chipped away. Then they started going deeper at the very end. They got a DPI that was only 13 yards even though the bomb would have been 29 yards into the end zone, then Brees threw behind Jared Cook in the end zone, and then they followed up with a 16-yard throw to Cook that was right on the money for the touchdown. The Saints need to throw more deeper passes like that in the second half. They can't do only the short stuff; some of their passes have to go past the sticks.
Vince Verhei: This is both the worst and the dumbest fight I've ever seen.
At least he had the courtesy to let him know first pic.twitter.com/VT2bb89hBr
— Tyler R. Tynes (@TylerRickyTynes) November 1, 2020
Aaron Schatz: The Saints tied it up with a field goal at 13-13 after a long Deontae Harris punt return, then on the next drive Nick Foles comes out and flicks a weird sidearm throw downfield that went behind Jimmy Graham and right into the arms of Marshon Lattimore. That's the first turnover of this game.
Scott Spratt: Wow, I thought the Saints were rushing to the line on that fourth-and-1 so Drew Brees could sneak it. Instead, he pitches back to Alvin Kamara, who had absolutely no chance as multiple defenders crashed into the backfield. Bears ball down 13-16 late in the third.
Aaron Schatz: The Bears just got a first down on a pass to Andrew Miller that was only the third first down by both teams in the entire third quarter.
Scott Spratt: Marshon Lattimore dropping a bunny interception and being upset on a fourth down where the failed conversion will net the Saints 20 yards of field position over a successful interception is the opposite of Todd Gurley accidentally scoring the touchdown against the Lions.
Aaron Schatz: The Saints march down the field after the Bears' failed fourth-down conversion. Once again, it's all short stuff until the end, where Brees goes 20 yards to Taysom Hill coming out of a bunch left and wide open over the middle. For most of this game, Chicago coverage has been very good. Not on that play, 23-13 Saints.
Bryan Knowles: Wow, that was too easy. Taysom Hills runs a post to the middle of the field, and the Bears have ~no one~ there. That's about as easy a pitch-and-catch as you'll see, and the Saints now have a 10-point lead.
Scott Spratt: Haha, breaking news on the FOX bottom line: Drew Brees breaks Tom Brady's career touchdown record! I'm going to preemptively break news that Tom Brady is going to break Drew Brees' career touchdown record tomorrow night.
Aaron Schatz: Bears offense woke up again with an 11-play, 75-yard drive with six first downs. Saints' zone coverage was giving up a lot of big holes and easy catches, then we had a DPI in the end zone on Demario Davis covering Jimmy Graham, and then after two runs got stuffed the Bears found Mooney on a little flat pass and he made it to the end zone. So now it is 23-20 Saints, 3:32 left.
Bryan Knowles: The Bears' drive is successful, but I don't get how you can let six and a half minutes drain off the clock down two scores with only ten minutes left in the game.
I mean, priority one is to score, and they pulled that off -- 11 plays, 75 yards, dinking and dunking their way down the field. But man, now you've got to stop the Saints again, and get the ball back, and score in just three and half minutes. A little urgency would have been nice.
Aaron Schatz: Bears have stopped the Saints. It's almost like they knew New Orleans likes to go to Alvin Kamara on third downs. Third-and-4, as soon as Kamara went into a pass route, Danny Trevathan was right there following him and tackled him in the backfield on the swing pass. So Bears will get the ball back with 2:00 left, down three.
Aaron Schatz: Very controversial call to start Chicago's next drive. Throw to Cole Kmet, Demario Davis drags him backwards and forces a fumble but the officials get together and rule that forward progress had been stopped, so it will still be Chicago's ball. Davis did have Kmet stopped for a couple of seconds there before he got the ball out.
— Jeff Nowak (@Jeff_Nowak) November 2, 2020
Aaron Schatz: The Bears made it for the field goal to tie the game at 23. Some weird play calls by Chicago like a second-and-4 run with 1:12 left, which went for no gain, and then Nick Foles took a sack with 28 seconds left on a second-and-10, but the next play they got Andrew Miller on an out where he beat C.J. Gardner-Johnson and that put them in position for a 51-yard Cairo Santos field goal.
Aaron Schatz: Both teams brought more pressure in the overtime period. Nick Foles took a sack on third down, and Drew Brees was able to scramble for a couple of yards when it looked like he would go down. Bears played strong defense when New Orleans got the ball first but couldn't move the ball when they got it. So Saints got another drive and they finally got a long run, 20 yards for Kamara, that set up a 35-yard field goal to win it.
Only problem for the Saints was bad process: they kicked on first down with 1:40 left in the game and the Bears out of timeouts. They should have just taken a couple of kneels -- there's not much difference between a 35-yard field goal and a 39-yard field goal -- and taken all the time off the clock so the Bears wouldn't have a chance to mount their own second drive just in case the Saints missed the field goal. But they didn't miss it.
Los Angeles Chargers 30 at Denver Broncos 31
Vince Verhei: Broncos trail 30-24 with seven seconds left, fourth down at the Chargers' 18-yard line. Lock's pass into the end zone is incomplete and game should be over ... but there's DPI in the end zone, so it's an untimed first-and-goal from the 1. Lock rolls out and hits KJ Hamler for what should be a game-winning touchdown. The play is reviewed, and it's ruled that Hamler's ass was in fact in bounds, and that's six points for Denver and a tie game. The extra point is good, but there's a penalty ... and it's on the Chargers. Broncos get touchdowns on each of their last three drives and win 31-30.
Aaron Schatz: The Chargers blew a 21-point lead while none of us were watching. They also took a six-point lead into Denver's final drive after a field goal. Never, ever extend your lead from three points to six and encourage your opponent to get aggressive to beat you.
Vince Verhei: Lock's winning pass:
Drew Lock called game.
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 2, 2020
Dallas Cowboys 9 at Philadelphia Eagles 21
Scott Spratt: Al Michaels, total pro, nails the "champing at the bit" idiom that many mistakenly say as "chomping at the bit." Never fear though, it still means what you think it means. And like 90% of the English idioms you don't intuitively understand, it's about horses.
Scott Spratt: As for the actual game, I'm not sure what Carson Wentz's thought process was on this long-developing strip sack.
— The Game Day NFL (@TheGameDayNFL) November 2, 2020
I mean, the Eagles could use a 49ers/Saints type of low-aDOT attack and comfortably win this game. Why play hero ball?
Carl Yedor: Ben DiNucci almost definitely isn't a starting-caliber quarterback, but at least he should provide some "what is he gonna do next?" entertainment value. DiNucci doesn't sense the pressure coming from his right down near the goal line, and Philadelphia gets a sack-fumble of its own to avoid being punished for the Wentz mistake.
Scott Spratt: Let's check back in on how Carson Wentz is doing...
Leighton Vander Esch just rocked Carson Wentz. pic.twitter.com/iGb6iZv4Jx
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) November 2, 2020
Yowza. The Eagles have obviously had a lot of offensive line injuries and are bottom-10 with an 8.3% adjusted sack rate because of it. But Wentz definitely doesn't make their life easier the way he holds the ball sometimes.
Carl Yedor: The Cowboys' offense has not been impressive, but it is at least somewhat creative. Elliott and Cedrick Wilson have both taken direct snaps and Wildcat formation plays, so they have been trying to mix it up. DiNucci's most reliable option seems to be a quick screen to Michael Gallup when the Eagles are in off coverage. Gallup is doing well with those, but if the Cowboys are going to really score points, they need to attack down the field a little more than they have been. Whether they are capable of that tonight is another question.
Scott Spratt: The Cowboys may not need to score many points, Carl, because Wentz is making bad decision after bad decision. This one was a 45-yard pass into double coverage while on the run on a first-and-10. Seriously, why would you throw this? The Cowboys are starting a third-string quarterback. Just get to 20 points and avoid turning the ball over.
What did Carson Wentz think was going to happen when the ball came out of his hand? pic.twitter.com/VYDYRVls9e
— Joel (@UKDraftScout) November 2, 2020
Scott Spratt: Greg Zuerlein just hit the Tiger Woods stinger from 59 yards dealing with some significant wind to give the Cowboys a 9-7 lead at the half.
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) November 2, 2020
The Eagles deficit is entirely Wentz's fault. They have a 50-yard advantage, but Wentz has turned the ball over three times on plays with poor awareness and decision-making.
Vince Verhei: I only turned this on early in the second quarter and ... my god. What a horror show. I get why the Cowboys are desperate and trying wide receiver passes and direct snaps to Ezekiel Elliott and Cedrick Wilson. Why are the Eagles trying the same sideshow tricks with Carson Wentz? And when they do just rely on Wentz, why is he turning the ball over so often? Let's not forget that this Dallas defense is wretched -- Wentz's god-awful forced interception into double coverage is just the second interception for the Cowboys this year, and their first since they picked off Jared Goff in Week 1.
And here's the real damning thing for the Eagles: they're running like crazy! Even ignoring the turnovers, they're averaging 5.6 yards per rush, 2.7 yards per pass. But they keep on passing, even on that fourth-and-1. You're playing a JV team. Just hand off every single play and worry about playing real football next week.
Carl Yedor: Wentz comes out after halftime and launches a deep ball that falls gently into the arms of Trevon Diggs for another pick. The wind is apparently a factor in Philly tonight, as it has been across much of the east coast today, but it's hard to know how much of this was the wind taking the ball versus just being a plain bad throw by Wentz.
— NFL (@NFL) November 2, 2020
The question is why would Wentz throw it? Even in the best case, it's a jump ball. That's not a strategy the big favorite should be using. And assuming that's another Wentz ad lib, I would bench him if I were Doug Pederson. Jalen Hurts could easily win this game.
Vince Verhei: So after my pleadings to run every play, the Eagles only had four runs in the third quarter. The first three were a gain of 4, a gain of 7, and a loss of 2. To be fair, Wentz followed that 2-yard loss by scrambling to set up a third-and-3, then throwing a touchdown on a sweet fade to Travis Fulgham. He also hit Jalen Raegor for a two-point conversion and a 15-9 lead. He finally woke up -- maybe the end of Daylight Savings Time threw him off? (Now that I think about it, that would explain the flow of more than one game today.)
Scott Spratt: I thought the real difference on the Eagles last drive was that Wentz avoided trying to throw the ball downfield, Vince. He has thrown accurate short and intermediate passes all night. And that's definitely all he needs to do.
Scott Spratt: I'm not sure the Cowboys were poised to score with as bad as their offense was tonight, but this was still a big call. T.J. Edwards came unblocked and strip-sacked Ben DiNucci, but it looked like Vinny Curry recovered the ball and was touched down before the ball popped out again and ended up being returned for a touchdown. The refs didn't overturn the call on the field of a fumble return touchdown, and so this game is all but a wrap at 21-9 Eagles with less than five minutes remaining.
— The Game Day NFL (@TheGameDayNFL) November 2, 2020
Vince Verhei: If there is anything positive to be taken from this game, let it be Dallas' onside kick after the intentional safety. Just free-kick that thing a mile in the air so it comes down in between the two levels of the receiving team and let it be a free-for-all. That was brilliant.