Sunday NFL Liveblog: Cowboys Try to End Vikings Win Streak

Cowboys RB Tony Pollard
Cowboys RB Tony Pollard
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 11 - Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season was more than a little bit memorable -- fantastic games, huge upsets, chaos throughout the playoff race. And we are 100% for that here at Football Outsiders; the fact that there was enough chaos to bump the Bills back to the top spot in the DVOA ratings despite a loss in one of the best games of all time? Yes. More nonsense, please, we are 100% ready for that.

Chaos has, indeed, already started, as the thundersnow in Buffalo has forced the Bills-Browns game to be moved to Detroit, meaning the Bills have to now play at Ford Field twice in the next five days. No team has won games in back-to-back weeks in Detroit since 2016, so the Bills have a chance to make some history there as they try to pick themselves off the deck.  Will Josh Allen throw away another game at the buzzer? Will Jeff Saturday improve his record to 2-0 as a head coach? Will the Commanders ride the momentum of the upset over Philadelphia into playoff contention themselves? We have no idea -- and with all the nonsense that's happened to this point, we're not putting anything past this week.

And, because we're live, you can participate in the discussion as well! Join in on the conversation -- either in the comment section in this article, on Twitter by tagging @FBOutsiders or @BryKno (assuming Twitter survives into gametime), or on our brand new Discord server, where some of your favorite writers will be hanging out and reacting live. Questions, comments, and particularly clever quips will find their way into the liveblog proper as we have a running conversation throughout gameday. 

Just four bye weeks to speak of, so we have a fairly full 11-game slate for you during the liveblog window:

Early Window

  • Washington Commanders (-3) @ Houston Texans
  • Chicago Bears (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons
  • Carolina Panthers (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens
  • Cleveland Browns (+7.5) v. Buffalo Bills in Detroit
  • Los Angeles Rams (+3) @ New Orleans Saints
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Indianapolis Colts
  • New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England Patriots
  • Detroit Lions (+3) @ New York Giants

Late Window

  • Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos
  • Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
  • Cincinnati Bengals (-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The nightcap has the Chargers and Chiefs in a rematch of their exciting Week 2 matchup in a season which has gone quite dramatically differently for both teams. We'll be switching to the FO Discord server for the nightcap, but until then, let the games begin!

Saturday Evening: Snowmageddon

The hefty snowfall in Buffalo has forced the Bills-Browns game to be moved to Ford Field. They probably could have cleared Highmark Stadium in time to play the game, but clearing the roads and making sure conditions were safe for fans to travel would have been a different story entirely. It's really too bad that we won't get to see what would have been an all-time weather game, but the safety of the community does come first, as well it should.

Fun fact: the last time the Lions won in back-to-back weeks in Ford Field was over Thanksgiving weekend in 2016; they've failed to do that the last 11 times they've had a chance.  The Bills are favored this week against the Browns and will be favored next week against Detroit on Thanksgiving morning, so they have a chance to beat the Lions to the feat.

To make up for the loss of a game, I present to you Buffalo rookies having no idea what a snow brush is.

Kevin, if you're reading this, go and shovel your walk, and I'll see you over the Christmas break.

Saturday Evening: Early Window Storylines

The Patriots have won 13 consecutive games against the Jets, including the 22-17 win back in October when Zach Wilson threw three interceptions and Bill Belichick passed George Halas with 325 career victories. No matter how good the Jets actually are -- and we have them ninth in the league with a 12.2% DVOA -- it feels like they do eventually need to prove they can beat the AFC East's perennial bullies before we can really consider them contenders, yeah? While one loss here wouldn't be particularly more harmful than any other, the Patriots have been the Monster at the End of the Book for New York for too long. If they want to truly, truly be taken seriously? They need this win, just for narrative purposes. If Wilson ends up seeing ghosts again, look out. Cowboys-Vikings may have the most national coverage at the moment, but to me, this is the game of the week.

Bills-Browns remains one of the more compelling games, although the snow day would have bumped it to number one. We were talking in Discord about whether the move increased or decreased the odds of a Cleveland upset -- and an upset it would be, despite Buffalo's rough form in the second halves of recent games. Having to go from a home game to a road trip is a major disruptive element for Buffalo, especially as the weather apparently stymied their first travel plans, so that's a bump for Cleveland above and beyond the benefits of the game going to a neutral site. On the other hand, massive weather events tends to add an element of randomness to games that generally favors the underdogs; conditions that won't be there indoors in Detroit. It likely doesn't matter one way or another for Cleveland's season; they have run out of juice after getting destroyed by Miami and it would take a minor miracle for them to get back into playoff contention, but a win in a Lake Erie bowl would at least quiet a few of the grumblings before...well, let's just say Before.

The third (and final) of the enticing early window games has the Giants hosting the Lions, which does tell you something about this slate as a whole. The Lions were left for dead - and likely are, although mathematics don't quite agree yet -- but they've won two straight and are beginning to piece together a few signs of progress defensively. They have a -11.2% defensive DVOA in the last two weeks, 10th best in the league. The fact that we're looking at two-game sample sizes does tell you a thing or two about the state of the Lions' season, but a late-season win streak would help reignite some of the optimism after the Hard Knocks appearance from the preseason.  The Giants, meanwhile, have the worst DVOA of any team currently in playoff position at -5.0%. Our current odds give them a 74.4% chance to make the postseason, but if there is going to be any chaos in the NFC race, I'd imagine it'd come from them.

Elsewhere on the docket, the Eagles try to pick themselves off the ground after their first loss of the season as they take on the Colts; Taylor Henicke and the Commanders try to keep the mojo from that upset going without overlooking the Texans; Justin Fields goes home to Georgia as the Bears take on the Falcons, Baker Mayfield retakes the starting reigns in Carolina as the top pick from 2018 faces the 32nd pick, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens; and the Rams and Saints try to find some sort of silver lining to frustrating, frustrating seasons.

Saturday Evening: Playoffs?!

At time of writing, all 32 teams could still earn any position in the playoffs, from home field advantage on down. That will still be true for the AFC after this week, but we finally, finally will begin getting some closure in the NFC. Most weeks, we'll just mention the big scenarios here rather than go down the entire, usually exceptionally lengthy list, but this week is the first one and so we can go into a little detail.

The Bears can be the first team to be eliminated from a division, because the Vikings are just running away with the NFC North. A loss to the Falcons plus a Minnesota win (over Dallas) would officially eliminate Chicago from the NFC North. The Bears would go to 3-8, the Vikings to 9-1, and even if they did end up meeting in the middle at 9-8, the Vikings' 7-5 conference record would beat the Bears' 5-7 record.  Our current playoff odds gives the Bears a 0.0% chance of winning the division anyway, but it will be nice to have that mathematically confirmed.  Honestly, I imagine the Bears will actually survive another week, because I like the Cowboys winning on the road, but we'll see what actually happens.

The race for home field in the NFC is realistically between those Vikings and the eventual NFC East winner, but at the moment, all 16 teams could still pull that off.  But the BearsPanthers, Saints and Cardinals could all be officially eliminated from that picture this week. Again, our playoff odds currently give them a combined 0.0% chance to win the top seed in the conference, but we can start blanking out those even remotely possible scenarios going forward.

Calculating these were a little bit complicated, as the Eagles, Vikings and Giants still play each other three more times so there are three guaranteed wins (or six half-wins, if you want to be technical) floating out there to be dealt with, but we got there in the end. All four teams would need to lose, and then have progressively more complicated things happen to officially be knocked out:

  • The Bears need one of the Vikings, Commanders, Giants or Eagles to win.
  • The Panthers need any two of the Giants, Eagles or Vikings to win.
  • The Saints need the Giants and either the Eagles or Vikings to win.
  • The Cardinals need the Falcons, Giants, Eagles, Vikings and Texans all to win.

...Yeah, the Cardinals scenario is a doozy, as it needs to clear out complicated, multi-way ties with the Bears or Commanders that they could end up winning.  Again, a rounded probability of 0.0%, so don't spend too much time sweating that one.  If I had to guess, I'd say the Saints and Cardinals dodge the bullet this week, but the Bears and Panthers get sent packing.  And this has been your 'they need a miracle' watch for today.

Saturday Evening: Rams at Saints

Maybe there's not a ton to watch for in this game in terms of postseason implications -- we give the two teams a combined 8.5% chance to make the playoffs. But from a sartorial perspective, this might well be the game of the week. Because, in a rare, rare treat, the Saints will be bringing out their 1960s-era throwback uniforms.

When most teams have a throwback, they wear it constantly.  You'll see it once or twice a year for years and years on end, until it's replaced by a new throwback, and things continue ad nauseum. Not the Saints!  The Saints have had the 1960s throwback in their bag for a while, but they almost never wear it. Per the Gridiron Uniform Database, this will be only the seventh time they've ever donned these throwbacks:

  • Twice in 1994, for the NFL's 75th anniversary
  • Once in 2002, in a year where they were experimenting with gold jerseys and different pants and all kinds of chaos in the uniform department
  • Twice in 2011, possibly because that was their last season in Reebok uniforms and there were questions about whether Nike could reproduce them as accurately
  • Once in 2016 for the team's 50th anniversary

And now today. Why? It's unclear. It's nothing to do with the helmet shell rule; the Saints' old logo is just a matter of a different decal on the gold helmet -- yeah, the gold is a slightly different shade, but it's close enough to pass muster and it's not like they're bringing out a differently-shaded helmet for this week. Nor was this something we were expecting; they just announced on Wednesday that they were doing it in a big surprise. It may literally be a case of the team feeling disappointed enough in their season to look for something, anything to provide a spark.

And I don't care, because I love the Saints' throwbacks. I love the pop of this shade of gold, as opposed to the more subdued shade they use today. And even then, the Saints don't use it that often -- they go black-on-black far too often (five times already this year, compared to one black-over-gold). The Saints all-blacks aren't the worst look in the world, but they do look so much better with gold, and especially the old gold.  I'd love this colorway to return full-time; keep your modern logo and fonts, sure; give me the old pants and the stripy socks and I'll be happy.

11:06 AM: Raiders at Broncos

News is breaking this morning that Nathaniel Hackett is handing over playcalling duties to Klint Kubiak in an effort to get anything, and I mean anything, going offensively. This isn't always a terrible move - the Eagles made the same switch this time last season, and that got them into the playoffs in 2021 and into dominant position in 2022 -- but it does feel like this is more throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks. But hey, at least the deck chairs are nice and shuffled, right?

11:40 AM: Early Window Inactives

No huge surprises from the early morning inactives. Cam Jordan's streak of 186 consecutive games without missing a game due to injury is coming to an end with an eye injury. Technically, his consecutive games streak ended last year due to being placed on the COVID list, but it's still a notable moment.

Other players missing out this week include Panthers QB PJ Walker (Baker Mayfield gets the start), Ravens RB Gus Edwards, Lions WR D.J. Chark, Saints RB Mark Ingram, Jets WR Corey Davis, Giants TE Daniel Bellinger and Bills defenders Greg Rousseau, Tre'Davious White and Tremaine Edmunds.

12:06 PM: Lions vs. Bills

It's fairly impressive that the Bills got here at all for today's game.

As for the Browns? They just drove.

12:35 PM: Jets at Patriots

We have a bit of a breaking story going on here -- Trent Brown is not working with the starting offensive line during warmup. He is not on the injured list, he's active, he's working with the backups.  Isaiah Wynn is working with the starters, and we're not really sure what's going on. Something to monitor when the game begins.

1:08 PM: Commanders at Texans

Remember when we it looked, briefly, like Davis Mills might be an answer in Houston? Well, not so much.

That was the second play from scrimmage, with Kendall Fuller jumping all over Mills' pass and bringing it to the house.  That was fast.

1:10 PM: Browns vs. Bills

We've been wondering for days how the change in venue would effect both teams. We're not making any sort of final determination after one drive, but the Browns did march 75 yards in nine plays, with both Nick Chubb and Jacoby Brissett shredding Buffalo on the ground before Amari Cooper came down with a touchdown in the end zone.

7-0 Browns, early, but they're not the only one...

1:12 PM: Bears at Falcons

The Falcons also put together an impressive opening drive -- 10 plays, 75 yards, with Marcus Mariota hitting four passes to four different receivers as the Bears new-look defense looks...well, not great.

7-0 Falcons, early, but THEY'RE not the only ones...

1:13 PM: Eagles at Colts

Jeff Saturday, coaching savant?  Well, maybe not, but so far, so good -- 10 plays, 75 yards against the top team in the NFC, headlined by a couple big Michael Pittman receptions before Jonathan Taylor punched it in at the goal line.

7-0 Colts, and that's finally the last one.  Lots of scoring early!

1:19 PM: Bears at Falcons

We're watching the Justin Fields rushing numbers once again -- just one carry for nine yards on the Bears' opening drive, but it's something to keep an eye on.  Something else to keep an eye on is if Fields can become even an average passer. You can critique this ball a little bit -- Darnell Mooney had to lay out for it -- but Fields finds the open man and hits him for a touchdown.

We're tied at seven.

1:25 PM: Lions at Giants

I'll admit; I missed this one as my internet conked out, but Daniel Jones has been sharp so far.  He's five-for-five for 65 yards, hitting five different receivers in the process, and he just ran the ball in for a score to take the lead.

My power came back on just in time to watch Graham Gano miss the XP, so it's a 6-3 Giants lead.

1:28 PM: Rams at Saints

No Cooper Kupp? Well, perhaps Tutu Atwell can do things too, as well.

Nice to have Matthew Stafford back, isn't it, Los Angeles? Maybe too little, too late, but you gotta start somewhere.  Rams take a 7-3 lead.

1:31 PM: Jets at Patriots

There's a consensus, both in the league and in the Discord, that Sauce Gardner is the defensive rookie of the year already.

Cale Clinton: Perfect punch by Sauce Gardner on Tyquan Thornton. Called an incomplete pass instead of a fumble, but either way great forced breakup by Gardner. Love where he’s at already as a player. I’m just still surprised that we’ve seen such good play already out of the rookie CB class. Stingley and Sauce immediately stepped into CB1 roles, Woolen has been a ballhawk all year, Kaiir Elam stepped into a very demanding position and held his own, Jack Jones and Marcus Jones have each been impressive for New England in their own right. What a class already.

1:41 PM: Jets at Patriots

As Mike Tanier puts it, this is definitely a thing that is happening.  We just had back-to-back-to-back punts.  Not on drives, on plays, as penalties kept forcing repunts.  This game was delayed because of a power outage; and well, it feels like neither team has actually found any juice just yet.

1:46 PM: Rams at Saints

Vince Verhei: End of the first quarter in New Orleans. Rams lead 7-3 on Tutu Atwell’s 62-yard long-bomb touchdown catch; their other 11 snaps have produced 25 yards and one first down. So long as they get a 50-yard play every quarter, they’ll be fine. Saints haven’t been dominant themselves, obviously, but have moved the ball sporadically and benefited from good field position, starting drives from their own 41 and, right at the end of the quarter, the L.A. 49.

Cale Clinton: Cooper Kupp had just over 30% target share in the Rams offense and accounted for something like 38% of all passing yards and 6 of 9 receiving TDs on the season. Whole thing grinds to a halt without him.

And the Saints do, in fact, cash in that field position with both Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill rotating at the quarterback position.  Dalton hits Juwan Johnson for the score, and the Saints jump back up 10-7.

1:49 PM: Commanders at Texans

Vince Verhei: In Houston, at the end of the first quarter, Davis Mills has taken a sack and thrown a pick-six. He has completed five passes for only 17 yards and no first downs. Oh, and Dameon Pierce has five carries for a net loss of 1 on the ground. Just another day for the Texans.

Washington hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire either -- they punted on each of their first three drives, and only picked up a first down on one of them. But they finally were able to get out of their own way on an 85-yard scoring drive just now, with Curtis Samuel running in the score.

Commanders have a 14-0 lead; they may not need to score more today.

2:00 PM: Lions at Giants

Daniel Jones had a 153-attempt streak without an interception, a big reason why the Giants are in playoff position at the moment. Well, that streak is over, as Aidan Hutchinson just leapt up and snagged a bullet out of the air.

Vince Verhei: Aidan Hutchinson is 6-foot-7, which helps in the pass rush and in coverage. He drops into the short flat and reaches way up over his head to reel in an interception of Daniel Jones. That sets up Detroit in the red zone, and Jamaal Williams goes on to score a 4-yard touchdown to put the Lions up 10-6.

2:10 PM: Rams at Saints

Vince Verhei: Saints stuff Rams for a loss on fourth-and-2, but there were no winners on that play. Payton Turner made the stop for New Orleans, but then he had to be carted off the field. L.A. offensive tackle Ty Nsekhe also had to leave the game, as the Rams’ offensive line continues to be suddenly snakebit after years of good injury fortune. And now those injuries are spreading to the Rams defense too — A’Shawn Robinson has also left the game with a knee injury.

2:11 PM: Commanders at Texans

Vince Verhei: Commanders get a field goal. They now lead 17 to 0 on the scoreboard, 11 to 1 in first downs, and 175 to -2 in total yardage. There have been a lot of bad offenses this year, but not sure any of them are worse than Houston’s.

2:12 PM: Bears at Falcons

Justin Fields is up to 36 rushing yards now, and the team as a whole is at 83 -- remember, they're on a 200-yard streak that we haven't seen since the Steel Curtain days in Pittsburgh, so we're following that.  It would help if they took a big lead and started running out some clock, and they're taking steps to get there -- a Cordarrelle Patterson fumble (forced by Brisker) set them up in ideal field position, and Fields ended up running it in for his second score of the day.

17-7, Bears.

2:14 PM: Bears at Falcons

Vince Verhei: Reminder: Cordarrelle Patterson is the best kickoff returner of all time. His fumble on a running play set the Bears up for a touchdown, but he makes up for it with the ninth kickoff return touchdown of his career.

That's a new record -- Patterson passes Josh Cribbs and Leon Washington for the most kickoff returns in a career.  That's one way to make up for a fumble!

17-14, Bears.

2:21 PM: Rams at Saints

Where have you gone, Allen Robinson, an offense turns it's lonely eyes to you.  Woo woo woo.

What's that you say, Allen Robinson, Cooper Kupp has left and gone away. Hey hey hey.  Hey hey hey.

Vince Verhei: Rams get their best drive of the day right before halftime. 87 yards in 11 plays, with Allen Robinson getting the touchdown at the end. Saints played that like they were up two scores at the end of the game, not one score at the end of the half. Gave up one short completion after another and Matthew Stafford was all too happy to take them. He went 8-of-9 for 88 yards on the drive. (Yes, that’s more yardage than the drive itself — L.A. moved backwards on penalties a few times.)

2:25 PM: Lions at Giants

An upset brewing?  Detroit's now jumped out to a 17-6 lead as we approach halftime, thanks in large part to a pair of big Amon-Ra St. Brown catches to move the ball down field.  Jamaal Williams punches it in, and the 7-2 Giants are now down double-digits.

Some interested faces in the NFC playoff race, there.

2:27 PM: Browns vs. Bills

Hey, the Bills are alive! We've been asking in the Discord just what is wrong with Buffalo today -- the rescheduling couldn't have helped, but Josh Allen is also just 9-for-16 for 84 yards, having missed some pretty easy throws. He didn't miss this one, though -- he hits Stefan Diggs in the back of the end zone, and the Bills take the lead.

Quality finally establishing itself, perhaps?

2:35 PM: Halftime Thoughts from the Outsiders

Vince Verhei: After Washington kicks a field goal to go up 20-0, the Texans take a knee to end the first half. Officially, they have snapped the ball 21 times to gain 5 yards.

That seems less than ideal. How's that NFC East race looking?

Carl Yedor: Philly seems to be entering a bit of a mini midseason lull based on their play last week and this week. Washington is currently comfortably ahead of Houston, but an Indianapolis team most had left for dead is now up 10-3 on the Eagles at halftime. There is plenty of time for them to get things straightened out, and there is no real danger of them missing the playoffs. Still, I have to imagine Philly fans are not feeling quite as comfortable as they had been a week ago.

Right.  And what about the AFC East?

Aaron Schatz: I don't think Pats-Jets is just bad QB play. It's good defense. Guys are covered downfield. Defensive linemen are beating offensive linemen for both teams. Zach Wilson's mobility has kept him from sacks but the Pats are getting pressure. Jets are too, obviously.

And the, uh, NFC South?

Vince Verhei: We haven’t actually talked much about the Bears-Falcons game. Special teams are playing a big role. In addition to the Patterson touchdown, in the last two minutes of the half, Cairo Santos missed a 56-yard field goal (doinked off the crossbar), then Younghoe Koo hit a 40-yarder to tie the game at 17-all. Fields has been … fine, but quiet. Only 71 yards passing, but he’s 7-of-12 and has a touchdown. And he has run for 73 yards and a touchdown, but it has taken him 14 carries to get there. Not a ton to say about the Falcons offense because they haven’t had the ball much — Patterson’s fumble came on the first play of a drive, and then he had the special teams touchdown, so at one point the Bears had 24 of 25 snaps.

2:44 PM: Rams at Saints

The Saints come out after halftime and march right down the field. Andy Dalton throws left, right and center -- Olave, Kamara and Landry all with big gains on the drive as they knife right through the Rams defense. Landry comes down with the touchdown in the end zone, and the Saints regain the lead 17-14.

Saints need this win significantly more than the Rams do, so we'll see.

Vince Verhei: Stafford then takes a third-down sack and the Saints get a good punt return to apparently start in L.A. territory again, but then penalties push them back nearly to their own 30.

2:54 PM: Lions at Giants

Things are getting late early for New York. The Lions take the second-half kickoff nearly to midfield, and just march down; death by a thousand paper cuts.

Vince Verhei: Lions are on the verge of blowing the Giants out. They have now scored touchdowns on three straight drives, all of them goal-line plunges by Jamaal Williams, to open a 24-6 lead early in the third. Not getting a lot of chunk plays, but they’re efficient, with 17 first downs in only 38 snaps.

Not over yet, but the Giants need to wake up right here, right now.

2:58 PM: Rams at Saints

Matthew Stafford is in the blue medical tent. The Saints are in the end zone.

I wasn't sure Andy Dalton still HAD that arm.  24-14, Saints.

3:08 PM: Browns vs. Bills

The Bills are waking up, and that's not a great sign for the Browns. A big stop on fourth-and-one gave the Bills the ball back, and then a big gain (plus 15-yards for hitting Allen in the facemask) gets the Bills into Cleveland territory. There was a moment of panic as it appeared Dawson Knox fumbled a long pass from Allen, but his rear was firmly planted on the ball.  Bullet dodged, Devin Singletary was able to rush a couple times to convert the stop into points.

The two-point conversion is stuffed, and the Bills settle for a 22-10 lead.  Cleveland needs points right now...

3:16 PM: Rams at Saints

Vince Verhei: Perkins’ first drive for the Rams goes 60 yards for a field goal to cut New Orleans’ lead to 24-17. He only completed one pass for 8 yards, but ran four times for 36 yards. Gonna be fun when he racks up 100 DYAR but doesn’t throw enough to qualify for Quick Reads.

There's going to be some Discussion about the Rams bringing Stafford back behind a shoddy line in a lost season, only for him to get right back into the concussion protocol.

3:17 PM: Eagles at Colts

Well, it's taken a while, but Philadelphia has finally found the end zone.  Their day so far has gone punt, punt, field goal, punt, end of the half, lost fumble, lost fumble, punt.  But finally, finally, they manage to find the end zone -- a big Jalen Hurts run sets them up, and a pass to Quez Watkins finishes it off.

It's still a 13-10 Colts lead, early in the fourth.

3:18 PM: Bears at Falcons

Now both quarterbacks have a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown, with Marcus Mariota joining Fields in making plays with his legs. 

The Falcons take a 24-17 lead, and we're on pace for another "Bears score a lot, run a lot, and lose" game...

3:30 PM: Lions at Giants

Too little, too late? Or the start of something big? The Giants have finally found the end zone once again, with 13:21 left in the game.

Still down multiple scores but a comeback starts somewhere.  Extra point is missed, so it's still 24-12 Lions.

3:34 PM: Bears at Falcons

Justin Fields is made of magic.  When things go well for him, they go WELL.

That extended the drive, and the Bears were able to score a few plays later to tie us at 24.  Bears are, by the way, up to 155 yards rushing, and FIelds is at 80, so all those various benchmarks are still in play with 8:16 left.

3:47 PM: Panthers at Ravens

The 3-3 game in New England might be good defense, but this one has been ugly as all getout.  But, halfway through the fourth quarter, we finally have a team reach the end zone.  Lamar Jackson punches it in to give the Ravens a 13-3 lead.

A game with real bowling shoe tendencies, here, but every win counts the same.

3:49 PM: Bears at Falcons

Chicago's defense stiffens a little, but Atlanta does manage to tack a field goal on to take a 27-24 lead with 1:47 left. Does Fields have some magic left in him?

3:50 PM: Eagles at Colts

For the first time today, the Philadelphia Eagles have the lead. It took multiple fumbles, some tough defensive stands, some Matt Ryan miscues, and a fourth-down-and-game conversion to get it done, but it got done.

1:20 left for the Philly defense to hold and escape.

3:51 PM: Lions at Giants

Vince Verhei: Giants receiver Isaiah Hodgins fumbles and the Lions recover. Third turnover for New York today, very uncharacteristic for them. Justin Jackson rumbles and pinballs for a 27-yard gain inside the 5. Jamaal Williams is stuffed on first down and now there’s an injury timeout. A touchdown ices the game for Detroit; a field goal makes it a 15-point lead and leaves New York a glimmer of hope.

Consider that hope snuffed, as D'Andre Swift slips into the end zone, and the Lions take a 31-12 lead with six minutes left.

3:55 PM: Bears at Falcons

No magic for Fields! His third-down pass is tipped and picked, and Atlanta is going to win this one!

3:57 PM: Eagles at Colts

The Colts face a 4th-and-21 and...Matt Ryan dumps the ball off.  That doesn't work, shockingly, and the Eagles will escape with one.

4:02 PM: Playoff Update

The Saints and Cardinals dodged their elimination scenarios this week; the Panthers' fate is yet to be determined.

Bu the Bears have become the first team to be eliminated from a playoff seed, as they can no longer win home field advantage in the NFC.  They can still be knocked out of the NFC North race if the Vikings win this afternoon.

4:06 PM: Jets at Patriots

The Patriots have never had a tie since the joined the NFL in 1970.

And they still haven't!

THIS is how this game is going to end?  Really?!

4:12 PM: Late Game Storylines

Still recovering from that Pats-Jets ending, honestly, but there ARE more games today.

The Cowboys-Vikings match is the game most of the nation will be getting this afternoon. The Vikings, of course, are coming off of a huge, dramatic finish over Buffalo -- while DVOA wasn't in love with it, it was a massive win and the energy in Minnesota is unmatched. Now, Minnesota has to keep that energy up in a five-day stretch where they host both the Cowboys and Patriots, as they're in the middle of the toughest bit of their schedule. The Vikings can begin closing up shop for both the NFC North and a top seed -- check the playoff scenarios for more information there -- but the Cowboys will be hungry for a win of their own after coming off of their OWN overtime loss to Green Bay. Can Dallas overcome the Green Bay hangover to get a key win here in their own playoff push, or will we be publishing a list of the worst 9-1 teams next week?

The Bengals, meanwhile, will be trying to put the ghosts of Week 1 behind them. That was the game where they were sacked seven times and turned the ball over five times more in the worst possible start to their season. Their opponent that day? The Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati, now in a better place than they were in early September, gets a chance to get some revenge this week. Pittsburgh at least has T.J. Watt back now, but they have almost no room for error sitting at 3-6. To have anything approaching a realistic shot at making the playoffs, they've gotta go 6-2, and probably 7-1 if you want they to be more likely than not to play extra football this season. A loss against Cincinnati wouldn't mathematically end them, but you could start writing the obituaries.

The Broncos and Raiders are also playing in a matchup of exceptional head coaches doing just wonderful jobs.

4:24 PM: Raiders at Broncos

The Broncos are toying with some history, and not the ideal kind. No team has been last in points scored and first in points allowed since 1946, but that's where the Broncos sit coming into today. And their combined 31.1 points per game is the second-lowest of the 21st century and the seventh-lowest since the 1978 rules changes. There's not a lot of scoring here, is what we're saying.

But, hey, new playcaller, new you, right? The Broncos' first drive featured a long bomb to Kendall Hinton -- originally ruled a touchdown, and then overturned, but setting up a Latavius Murray rush.

Broncos take a 7-0 lead midway through the first quarter.

4:39 PM: Cowboys at Vikings

Is Micah Parsons the Defensive Player of the Year?  He'd like to submit his resume.

I think M. Bosa might have a thing to say about it before all is said and done, but Parsons is the frontrunner for a reason.  This Vikings hold Dallas to a field goal after this play, so it's a 3-0 Cowboys lead.

4:45 PM: Raiders at Broncos

Vince Verhei: Raiders have a first down. Derek Carr is sacked for a loss of 7. Las Vegas is also called for holding … and Nathaniel Hackett ACCEPTS THE PENALTY. So it’s first-and-20 instead of second-and-17. Don’t get that one. But Carr is sacked again on first-and-20, and then a second-down run goes nowhere, and a third-down completion well short of the sticks sets up a field goal anyway. So it doesn’t hurt them, but that’s a terrible decision. And then the field goal is no good. Of course it is.

4:54 PM: Cowboys at Vikings

If you let your opponents have nine plays in the red zone, you're not going to have a great time.

The Cowboys are riding Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliott up and down the field. At the moment, it's Pollard being the more effective of the two -- five carries for 43 yards, including some nifty spinmoves over a confused Vikings D.  But Zeke has 14 yards on his four carries, including the touchdown.  Both players can have a role in this offense!

Cowboys now lead 10-3, late in the first.

4:57 PM: Bengals at Steelers

The all-white Bengals uniforms are, once again, causing concern in Discord; they're not winners per our public opinion, at any rate.  But the Bengals look a lot better this week than they did in Week 1 against the Steelers, when Burrow was less in white and orange and more in the brown and green of the turf. The two teams exchanged field goals in the first quarter, before the Bengals came back with a quick 80-yard drive, capped off by a Burrow-to-Perine touchdown,

10-3 Bengals.

5:00 PM: Raiders at Broncos

A note to the Denver Broncos, our fourth-rated defense in DVOA: Try covering Davante Adams.

To be fair, the coverage was alright there; Adams is just very good, but there was a reception earlier where Denver somehow forgot all about him.  The Raiders cut the lead to 10-7.

5:12 PM: Bengals at Steelers

Najee Harris has some ups!

The Steelers started with the ball in solid field position thanks to a big kick return, but it was mostly the ground game from there - both Harris and a few rushes by Kenny Pickett.  That ties us at 10 apiece.

5:24 PM: Bengals at Steelers

Well, that was fast -- I was waiting for something to happen in the Denver game, and in that time, the Bengals marched right back down and scored again. 10 plays, 92 yards, plenty of Joe Burrow. It ends with Samjie Perine's second touchdown reception of the day.

Bengals take a 17-10 lead, while I continue to wait for Denver to do a thing.

5:25 PM: Raiders at Broncos

Vince, you're doing yeoman's work watching this one.

Vince Verhei: Third down, Russell Wilson hits Greg Dulcich for the conversion, but Courtland Sutton commits a crack back block AFTER Dulcich had already picked up the first down. It’s a penalty from the spot of the foul, so it’s still third-and-long. Wilson scrambles but comes up way short — but he’s hit on the ground by Maxx Crosby, personal foul on Las Vegas, first down for Denver. Yes, this game is as stupid and ugly as we all expected.

...THE BRONCOS FUMBLED AT THE GOAL LINE AGAIN, but they recovered it.

...And then the kick is blocked. Unbelievable.  Keep in mind the Broncos were ALREADY last by a mile in red zone DVOA coming into the day.

It's 10-7 at the half.  Football.

Vince Verhei: Well, lost in all that lunacy is that this has probably been Wilson’s best day for Denver — 13-of-15 for 147 yards. No touchdowns, but one that was called a TD but reversed to down at the 1, and they scored on the next play, and another that was nearly completed on a fade route, but came down a step out of bounds. That’s all without Jerry Jeudy, and Kendall Hinton as his top wideout. Why has he been so effective? “Because it’s the Raiders” is part of the answer, but more specifically, the Raiders (who ordinarily never blitz) are blitzing Wilson like crazy. And Wilson can still eat blitzes alive, immediately finding one-on-one matches and putting the ball where only his receiver can get it. Why did Las Vegas pick today of all days to get hyper aggressive? Add that to the list of baffling questions surrounding these two teams.

The best answer, brought to you by CoralSkipper in the FO Discord, is that two desperate coaches lead to desperate measures, feeding off of one another.

5:36 PM: Cowboys at Vikings

Aaron Schatz: I think despite 20 points for Dallas the big story of the Dallas-Minnesota game is that the Dallas defense is really good. Justin Jefferson has 18 yards. That's it! Overall, the Vikings have 4.0 yards per play. Only two guys have caught the ball. Cousins is constantly under pressure and throwing the ball away.

Oh, that's right, it's 20 points for the Cowboys, after Tony Pollard goes 30 yards on a little swing pass.  That's 20-3 Cowboys, and the Vikings are floundering on the ropes.  They might need points before half, here, with the Cowboys getting the second-half kickoff.

5:38 PM: Raiders at Broncos

We're already in post-season post-mortem mode for Denver:

Carl Yedor: My take is that this offseason is going to be filled with hemming and hawing about how Wilson has lost it, what Denver can possibly do given the recent extension (to answer that one: nothing really), and what the future holds for the Broncos. Wilson is definitely slower than he used to be, so some of the floor for him isn't there like it was in the past, but as he develops more trust and relationships with his pass catchers I have a feeling that the red zone performance will be better next year. It took Seattle 3 years to get Jimmy Graham fully integrated as a red zone weapon, for example. Wilson already loves throwing to Sutton, so maybe Dulcich can be that secondary target for him next year.

That said, the above was definitely the bull case for 2023 Russ. The bear case is that this is just the beginning of Wilson's decline, and because he historically relied on his mobility, it's only downhill from here. Fun times in Denver!

5:41 PM: Bengals at Steelers

We have a shootout developing in the AFC North! Pittsburgh just hit their longest score of the year -- a 24-yarder toss from Pickett to Pickens in Pittsburgh -- to tie us back up again.

Some promise from Pickett today.  Still a lot of dinking and dunking, but you could do worse than 10-for-15 for 92 yards and a score.

5:52 PM: Raiders at Broncos

Vince Verhei: The Raiders made a huge investment in Davante Adams this offseason, and early in the fourth quarter he has caught 5 of 6 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. But on third-and-5, they come out in an offset I and hand off to Josh Jacobs. Maybe they were planning on setting up a fourth-and-short and going for it? Regardless, Jacobs is stuffed for no gain, but Daniel Carlson bails them out with a 52-yard field goal to tie the game 10-10.

5:56 PM: Cowboys at Vikings

Brett Maher will have a word or two with the refs. 

The Cowboys, with the ball again and just seconds left in the half, hit a bomb from Prescott to Lamb up the sideline to set up Maher for a 60-yard field goal at the gun.  Maher's kick is up and good -- but they blow the whistle just as the ball is snapped, saying they have to review the previous play.  And this after a delay getting everyone to the line! The delay in review is inexcusable. And then the ruling stands, so Maher has to try another 60-yarder.

...Which is even better.  Cowboys take a 23-3 lead at the half, and they get the second-half kickoff.  This game might be over before Minnesota touches it again.

6:05 PM: Raiders at Broncos

Vince Verhei: More tomfoolery in Denver. ‘Davante Adams takes a big hit on an incompletion. There is no flag, so he curses out the ref … and then HE is penalized for a personal foul. So now it’s second-and-25, but the Broncos aren’t ready, and have to call timeout. And the announcers are PRAISING Nathaniel Hackett for that!

We continue Vince's slow descent into madness as we go through the third quarter.

6:13 PM: Cowboys at Vikings

Was the loss to the Packers one that would derail the Cowboys season? Would the win over the Bills be the spark that launched Minnesota to the top of the NFC?

No.

Tony Pollard: six targets, six catches, 109 yards and two touchdowns. This is all over but the crying.

6:25 PM: Raiders at Broncos

Vince Verhei: Broncos blitz on third down, Derek Carr misfires on a throw to Ameer Abdullah, the Raiders punt, the Broncos get a modest return … and the FOX crew goes to commercial with Safety Dance? When there was no safety dance to, nor a free or strong safety doing any dancing?

Help is on the way Vince. Stay calm.

6:32 PM: Bengals at Steelers

So we have a blowout and a blooper bowl, and that leaves us with one relevant competitive game to see us through the afternoon -- Bengals-Steelers. We were going up and down the field rapidly in the first half, but the first three drives of the second half were all punts, and a total of 17 yards for both teams.  Fortunately for us, Cincinnati woke up, with Burrow hitting Tee Higgins on a deep shot to move Cincinnati into scoring range.  A few plays later, Burrow hits Trenton Irwin for the go-ahead touchdown.

The question, of course: who the hell is Trenton Irwin?  24-20, Bengals.

6:47 PM: Bengals at Steelers

My goodness, T.J. Watt.

This just turns into a field goal, but the athleticism to make this play? Insane. Bengals cling to a 24-23 lead.

7:01 PM: Raiders at Broncos

Rather than run the ball and drain 40 more seconds, the Broncos call a pass play, which falls incomplete.  The Raiders get the ball back, and immediately charge to midfield, down a field goal with 83 seconds left.  Oh my...

7:06 PM: Raiders at Broncos

Vince Verhei: OH NO! THEY’RE GOING TO OVERTIME!

The Raiders shoot downfield as the Broncos defense absolutely caves.  They firm up at the goal line and force the field goal, and we're tied at 16 with 16 seconds left.

Wheeeee...

7:14 PM: Raiders at Broncos

C'mon.

7:17 PM: Raiders at Broncos

Someone did, indeed, have to win this game, Nathaniel Hackett.  And it wasn't your team.

Overtime goes like this: a one-yard stuff off Josh Jacobs, and then Derek Carr hitting Foster Moreau and Davante Adams on back-to-back 30+ yard shots.  The Broncos defense just vanished for the last two minutes of regulation and OT, and the Raiders win!  May I humbly suggest SOMEONE cover Davante Adams?!

Happiest team in the nation right now? The Houston Texans, who have a commanding lead for the #1 overall pick.

7:20 PM: Bengals at Steelers

And while we were all watching the tire fire in Denver, this football game was still happening. The Bengals got the ball with about 10 minutes left, and ate half of it on a 91-yard drive. That ends with Samije Perine's three receiving touchdown of the game, the Bengals jump to a 34-23 lead, and this one is over, too.

There's still time left in both games still going, but I highly doubt we'll see anyone change spots.  Hey, it's 4-0 in the Gray Cup, with Toronto kicking a field goal and a rogue to go up over Winnipeg!

7:26 PM: Playoff Picture

Assuming nothing shocking happens in the final minutes here, here are your current standings before the night game begins:

AFC

  1. Chiefs
  2. Dolphins (over BUF via head-to-head) (over BAL via conference record) (over TEN via strength of victory)
  3. Titans (over BAL via conference record)
  4. Ravens
  5. Bills
  6. Patriots (over NYJ via head-to-head, over CIN via conference record)
  7. Bengals (over NYJ via head-to-head)
    ________________
  8. Jets
  9. Chargers
  10. Colts
  11. Jaguars (over LV, and CLE via conference record)
  12. Raiders (over DEN via head-to-head) (over CLE via conference record)
  13. Browns (over PIT via head-to-head) (over DEN via strength of victory)
  14. Broncos (over PIT via conference record)
  15. Steelers
  16. Texans

 

NFC

  1. Eagles
  2. Vikings
  3. Seahawks
  4. Buccaneers
  5. Cowboys (over NYG via head-to-head)
  6. Giants
  7. 49ers
    ________________
  8. Commanders
  9. Falcons
  10. Lions (over ARI via conference record)
  11. Cardinals
  12. Packers (over NO via strength of victory)
  13. Saints
  14. Rams
  15. Panthers (over CHI via conference record)
  16. Bears

 

It feels like the Vikings are doomed to fall after this week's crushing loss, but that is, as they say, why they play the games.  Every team is still mathematically alive for the playoffs, and only the Bears have been eliminated from any seed.

7:38 PM: Blue Bombers vs. Argonauts

We have a new leader in the Grey Cup, as Dakota Prukop sneaks in for the opening touchdown!

7-4, Winnipeg in the second quarter.

...Yeah, we're not following this to completion; we're just filling time while we're waiting for the Cincinnati game to go final.

7:43 PM: A Wrap!

The Steelers' desperation onside kick goes nowhere, and that's a wrap for the liveblog today! We'll see you in Discord for Chiefs-Chargers tonight!

Comments

44 comments, Last at 21 Nov 2022, 10:54pm

#1 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Nov 20, 2022 - 1:03pm

Also on this evening, the 109th Grey Cup.  Winnipeg is heavily favoured, which is exactly the sort of Grey Cup game Toronto has made a habit of winning.  The last time these two met for the Grey Cup was back in 1950, in the Mud Bowl.  The following link about the Mud Bowl game is worth following just for the hands-around-the-neck tackling form depicted in the photo. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-blue-bombers-toronto-argonauts-grey-cup-cfl-1.6650626

 

 

Points: 0

#2 by Bryan Knowles // Nov 20, 2022 - 1:25pm

Yeah -- the Grey Cup will run past the end of the blog, but I'll be hitting any big highlights that happen early!

Points: 0

#3 by mathesond // Nov 20, 2022 - 1:26pm

I was 13 when the Argos won the '83 Grey Cup, their first in 31 years. Coincidentally, that was also my first year of high school, and my homeroom teacher was Teddy Toogood, who was a member of the '52 Argos, which was the last Toronto team to win the Cup before the '83 team. So, go Argos!

Points: 0

#9 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Nov 20, 2022 - 2:02pm

Mr. Toogood played in the Mud Bowl, too!  I can't find individual stats on the game, but it seems he was one of a platoon of running backs (common in that era I believe) along with Al Dekdebrun (the feature back), Billy Bass, and Ulysses 'Crazy Legs' Curtis.

Points: 0

#42 by Mike B. In Va // Nov 21, 2022 - 2:30pm

Ulysses 'Crazy Legs' Curtis

Only in football would someone already names Ulysses need a nickname.

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#34 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Nov 20, 2022 - 9:56pm

Toronto pulls their favourite trick and wins another Grey Cup as an underdog, 24-23.  Really, really good game.  Too many twists and turns to describe fully but after a record-breaking 102-yard punt return put Winnipeg ahead, backup QB Chad Kelly, nephew of Bills' great Jim Kelly, came off the bench to replace the injured starter and regained the lead.  The final meaningful play of the game was a 47-yard field goal attempt by the Bombers with 40 seconds remaining, which was blocked.

Also, as is obligatory for a Hamilton fan, "Argos suck!"  But congrats, anyway.

Points: 0

#4 by Pat // Nov 20, 2022 - 1:34pm

Utter bullcrap man downfield penalty on Philly early on. Kelce drive blocks a guy and the guy he's blocking slips to his left, so he stumbles forward and stops. Made contact within a yard, stopped as soon as he lost contact. That can't be a penalty. Otherwise the defense can just dive out of the way anytime someone run blocks on a pass play, and it's illegal man downfield. 

Points: 0

#26 by JS // Nov 20, 2022 - 5:58pm

You can't expect referees to understand the spirit and the point of rules. At best you can only expect them to blindly, mechanically follow them. At best.

Points: 0

#39 by Pat // Nov 21, 2022 - 8:06am

I hate feeling old, but it seriously feels like the newer batch of refs is exactly like you're describing: totally mechanical and oblivious to physics.

I remember being surprised when I heard the first retired ref rules analyst come out and basically say "yeah, no, that's just wrong." I know there were obvious screwups back in the day too, but it seemed like most of those were issues with the rules rather than applying them (e.g. Hochuli's inadvertent whistle, the nightmare of what a catch is, etc.).

Nowadays it's more "are you serious?"

Points: 0

#36 by turbohappy // Nov 21, 2022 - 1:12am

While I do understand it's not really in the spirit of the rule, he was like 5 yards downfield when the ball was thrown. I don't think there's really a lot of "intent" written into the rule. Defenders probably aren't going to start diving out of the way when someone comes at them run blocking...because it's usually actually a run.

Points: 0

#38 by Pat // Nov 21, 2022 - 8:01am

There is, actually! The rule specifically says that if you're blocking which is initiated within 1 yard, and you stop after you lose contact, it's fine.

That's what happened, unless you suspend the laws of motion.

I realize there are other rules (roughing the passer) that have the same problem, and I disagree with those, too.

Points: 0

#5 by Ben // Nov 20, 2022 - 1:35pm

After 3 straight penalties, the Eagles ended up with a 1st and 35. The Colts managed to keep them from converting. 

Points: 0

#6 by IlluminatusUIUC // Nov 20, 2022 - 1:35pm

Josh Allen has missed two guys open short on third down in favor of forcing the ball downfield, both of them turned into busted conversions. With the Bills defense cracking under all these injuries, he has GOT to learn how to extend drives again and stop playing like an overcaffinated Madden kid. 

Points: 0

#7 by IlluminatusUIUC // Nov 20, 2022 - 1:50pm

The contrast with the way Cleveland is simplifing things for Brissett is instructive. Simple outs, rollouts, curls... Give Allen some layups until he calms down. 

Points: 0

#8 by Ben // Nov 20, 2022 - 1:55pm

Eagles had a first and goal from the 2. After a bad shotgun snap on 2nd down lost 8 yards, the Eagles settle for a FG. 

The Colts have to hope that Philly keeps shooting themselves in the feet. 

Points: 0

#10 by dmb // Nov 20, 2022 - 2:10pm

That was the second play from scrimmage, with Kendall Fuller jumping all over Mills' pass and bringing it to the house.  That was fast.

That was the Texans' second offensive snap, but it was preceded by a light-speed Washington three-and-out.

Points: 0

#11 by Ben // Nov 20, 2022 - 2:39pm

The Philly foot-shooting continues. On the first snap after half time, Hurts is stripped sacked and the Colts recover. They go three and out, including a false start, but make the FG to go up by 10. 

Points: 0

#12 by Ben // Nov 20, 2022 - 2:49pm

Eagles go for it on 4th and 10 from the Colts 39. Colts blitz and get an unblocked rusher and flush Hurts out of bounds for a 6 yard loss. 

Points: 0

#13 by Ben // Nov 20, 2022 - 2:57pm

It doesn’t matter much though. The Colts have another three and out after a sack and a holding call. The Colts have zero faith in their o-line (quite reasonably). Go with a RB swing pass on third and 19.

The Colts offense is looking like it has most of the season at this point. The Eagles are moving the ball reasonably, but the Colts defense is making stops. Not sure how long they can keep it up with the offense doing nothing. 

Points: 0

#14 by Pat // Nov 20, 2022 - 3:06pm

Early in the season: common threads from media, fans, etc.: "no one could've ever expected the Eagles to be this good!"

Me: "they have a ton of high age talent, it's way too early in the season"

Sigh.

Points: 0

#15 by Ben // Nov 20, 2022 - 3:19pm

After the Colts miss a 50-yard FG, the Eagles get a TD drive. Big plays were a 30 yard Hurts scramble, followed 2 plays latter by a nice 20 yard TD pass. Colts still up 13-10 with 13:30 in the fourth quarter, but the Eagles are seriously outplaying them at this point. Unless the Colts can mount a TD drive, which they’ve shown no ability to after the first drive of the game, the Eagles will likely make the comeback. 

Points: 0

#16 by Ben // Nov 20, 2022 - 3:27pm

Big series of plays in this game. The Colts moved the ball to the fifty. Had a third and one. Taylor got it, but he fumbled while trying to push the pile for more yards. Hurts had a couple of runs, but then the Eagles fumbled after a reception and the Colts got the ball back. 

Points: 0

#17 by Ben // Nov 20, 2022 - 3:35pm

Colts have a nice long pass down to the five. On third and goal, Ryan takes a 15 yard sack (with a possible face mask no call). Kick the FG to go up by the dreaded 6 points with 4:30 left to play. Setting themselves up for the 1-point loss

Points: 0

#18 by Pat // Nov 20, 2022 - 3:53pm

I'm impressed, that's a pretty damn prescient call at this point: Philly was shooting themselves in the foot enough I thought a TD drive there would be unlikely.

Still think an explosive play by the Colts to set up a game-winning field goal is a significant possibility, so that whole 1 point loss could easily be a 2 point victory at this point.

Points: 0

#19 by Ben // Nov 20, 2022 - 3:53pm

Eagles take a 17-16 lead after Hurts walks in untouched on a QB draw from the 10. The Colts had gotten it to 4th and 2 at the two minute warning at the 9 earlier in the drive, but another Hurts keeper picked up three yards. 

Colts have 1;20 and no timeouts to try and get a FG. The Eagles pass rush versus the Colts o-line and an immobile Ryan in a must pass situation seems like a bad matchup for the Colts though. 

Points: 0

#20 by Pat // Nov 20, 2022 - 3:56pm

The Eagles pass rush versus the Colts o-line

This is a bit overstated - Philly's defensive line gains a lot from player rotation. In a time-compressed situation like a 2-minute drill, that's not as much of a mismatch as you'd think.

(edit: of course as soon as I say this, Ryan gets sacked, so what do I know)

Points: 0

#21 by coboney // Nov 20, 2022 - 3:59pm

I don't get the Bears playcalls in the 2 minutes at the end of the game. We've seen Fields holding him hamstring and avoiding running instead looking to pass (leading to some crazy moving behind the line) and they opened with on the 2min drive 2 designed runs.

They both go poorly, in fact with the second he takes a shot that has medical looking at him.

If anyone was still on the Bears OC having figured things out this should kill that. You shouldn't be calling QB Runs when time is in the crunch, your QB is sore and not wanting to run and everything.

Points: 0

#22 by Cythammer // Nov 20, 2022 - 4:08pm

Colts will be ruing the many opportunities on offense they wasted in the second half of that game. However, they still would likely have won the game if the refs hadn't missed that facemask call. Would have given them first and goal.

 

In other news, Zach Wilson is no better than the third best QB on the Jets roster. He could be worse. I don't know who is on the practice squad, but whoever he is, he might be better too.

 

The Patriots will now this defense-dominated game on a spectacular special teams play... It would have been an abomination if the Jets had won. Patriots were bad on offense but still moved the ball on multiple drives only to peter out close to scoring range or miss a FG. The Jets' failures on offense were much greater.

Points: 0

#23 by Cythammer // Nov 20, 2022 - 4:18pm

Some of the statistics in this game are absurd... The Jets had 44 net yards passing on 26 drop backs... They averaged just 2.1 yards a play. The Patriots really did dominate the game. Almost three times as many yards and, at 5 yards a play, well over double what New York accomplished.

Points: 0

#24 by Paul R // Nov 20, 2022 - 4:45pm

Colts/Eagles postmortem:  

This is the sort of thing teams usually iron out in the first week or two, but I think the Colts receivers need to shorten their routes by about two feet. Ryan is finally getting a slightly-below-average amount of time in the pocket (an improvement) and when he's in a hurry his passes tend to arrive at about shin height. That's probably just his age and mileage catching up with him. If the receivers would just back up a smidgen before the snap, they might manage an extra 3 or 4 completions in a game.  

Colts O-line is playing at about 3/5 efficiency. Eagles definitely knew where the weak spots were. If they can keep at it, they might be an effective unit by about week 15. Raimann and Fries had some disaster-free plays but were off balance and getting shoved around too often. Raimann getting burned on that last, game-killing sack was painful to watch.

 

Points: 0

#37 by turbohappy // Nov 21, 2022 - 1:22am

It feels like they restarted the season when Saturday took over and they immediately started actually playing their best players and playing somewhat sane football. But that means they are having week 1 and 2 struggles in week 11 which isn't a great look. They still aren't a great team but as a fan wow has the turnaround been huge - they are watchable and competitive even if the offense still goes through stretches of ineptness.

When they can run the ball the offense is OK. When they can't (either due to matchup or situation or whatever) it is still very inept top to bottom. No one with separation, lingering protection mistakes mostly by the low round recent draft picks, Ryan with fairly low ability to create off script.

I like Raimann, he has good feet, but wow does he lose leverage and get absolutely trucked sometimes like on the play you mentioned.

Points: 0

#25 by Tutenkharnage // Nov 20, 2022 - 5:27pm

With the Jets going all J-E-T-S today against the Patriots, the last seven teams to beat the Bills have lost their next game.

2022:
Jets (lost to Patriots)
Dolphins (lost to Bengals)

2021:
Chiefs (lost to Bengals)
Bucs (lost to Saints)
Patriots (lost to Colts)
Colts (lost to Bucs)
Jaguars (lost to Colts)

With the Vikings currently down 10 to the Cowboys, there’s a good chance this streak will grow to eight today.

Question for the FO staff: What’s the longest such streak in NFL history?

Points: 0

#27 by Tutenkharnage // Nov 20, 2022 - 6:22pm

Because Kirk Cousins will be even worse when the lights are even brighter. 

Points: 0

#28 by jmaron // Nov 20, 2022 - 6:27pm

Can't believe I was trying to make arguments the Vikings might be better than their  DVOA. When will I learn. I fucking Charlie Brown

Points: 0

#29 by Tutenkharnage // Nov 20, 2022 - 6:45pm

They’re just the Giants if the coin had come up heads an extra time or two. Decent team on a crazy heater, and that’s it. 

Points: 0

#32 by jmaron // Nov 20, 2022 - 7:30pm

they collapsed faster than the FTX exchange

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#40 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 21, 2022 - 9:08am

On the flipside, the 2003 Pats went 17-2, going 10-1 in one-score games, after getting trucked by 31 in week 1.

So you can win a title that way, riding a lot of clutch and immobile game-management and ludicrous amounts of luck and/or dark pacts.

Points: 0

#30 by Paul R // Nov 20, 2022 - 6:48pm

I'm watching on rabbit-ears TV. CBS just switched to the Bengals/Steelers game while the Vikings beatdown is still in the 3rd quarter. I don't think I've ever seen a network do that before.

Points: 0

#31 by dmb // Nov 20, 2022 - 6:57pm

I watch on rabbit-ears as well and had turned off the DAL/MIN beatdown, so thanks for the heads-up!

Points: 0

#43 by Mike B. In Va // Nov 21, 2022 - 2:36pm

Yeah, it's usually at the beginning of the fourth, in my experience. New thinking in TV sports!

Points: 0

#33 by AFCNFCBowl // Nov 20, 2022 - 7:38pm

So how high will Dallas' DVOA be for this game?

Points: 0

#35 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Nov 20, 2022 - 10:42pm

Based on the box score, I'm going to estimate that Dallas will get roughly all the DVOA.

Points: 0

#44 by Spanosian Magn… // Nov 21, 2022 - 10:54pm

They may have to invoke the mercy rule in Niners-Cards.

Points: 0

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