Saturday Divisional Liveblog: Jaguars Look to Upset Chiefs

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Divisional - The pretenders are out and the contenders are in. Welcome to the Divisional Playoffs!

After a Wild Card round filled with comebacks and surprisingly close games, all eight teams remaining standing have proven they belong on this stage. We have eight of the top nine teams in weighted offensive DVOA still playing (sorry, Detroit), and no one with a negative overall weighted DVOA. That's not to say there aren't gradients of quality here, but every team still standing has at least a 1.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl, by our playoff odds. Would it be surprising if the Jaguars or Giants ended up holding the Lombardi Trophy at the end of all things? Sure. But at this point, nothing would be truly shocking.

To get there, though, both Jacksonville and New York have to get through the top seeds today. Both the Chiefs and Eagles are rested and ready to get their own playoffs started; the top seeds in both conferences looking to prove that they earned them. Can either underdog overcome the triple threat of home field advantage, a bye week and generally being less successful than their top-seeded opponents? The favorites are favorites for a reason, but it was just last year when both #1 seeds fell in the divisional round. Could Jalen Hurts' busted wing and Kansas City's tendency to play with their food come back to haunt them? We'll find out shortly.

And we'll be covering today's matchups live in a special Saturday edition of the Football Outsiders liveblog Bcause we're live, you can participate in the discussion as well! Join in on the conversation -- either in the comment section in this article, on Twitter by tagging @FBOutsiders or @BryKno, or on our brand new Discord server, where some of your favorite writers will be hanging out and reacting live.

This should be good.

Early Game Preview: Jaguars at Chiefs

Andy Reid has never lost to one if his former assistants in the postseason. He beat Brad Childress in 2008, and then knocked off Sean McDermott in 2020 and 2021. Now it's Doug Pederson's turn to try to stop Reid, riding the momentum from the incredible comeback win over the Chargers into an upset in Arrowhead Stadium.

It's a tall order, for sure. The Chiefs are the cream of the current NFL; the most regular of contenders. They've reached the AFC Championship in each of the past four seasons, winning a Super Bowl and competing in another along the way. Meanwhile, this is just the Jaguars' second playoff berth since 2008; there may be a slight gap in experience here.  And, of course, the Chiefs beat the Jaguars earlier this season; Patrick Mahomes throwing four touchdown passes on route to a 27-17 victory. But as Rivers McCown points out in our stats preview, the Jaguars did stage a mini-comeback from down 20-0 in that one; an unsuccessful precursor to the Chargers comeback?

With the threat of snow coming down at Arrowhead, and the always-loud Chiefs fans ready to surprise Trevor Lawrence, the underdogs have a tall task laid out in front of them as 9.5-point underdogs. But hey, we all learned not to count them out last week, right?

Late Game Preview: Giants at Eagles

How healthy is Jalen Hurts, really?

Hurts suffered a sprained shoulder in Week 15 against Chicago. He came back in the season finale, but put up his worst passing DVOA of the year, -35.5%, against a Giants team that was resting most of it's starters. Oh, the Eagles still won, mind you, but the Eagles team that earned the #1 seed; the Eagles team that was top in DVOA through the first 15 weeks of the season? That requires Hurts playing like he did for the first three months of the season. The extra week off is bound to have helped, but we saw almost none of the RPO and designed run game we were used to seeing from Philadelphia during Hurts' last outing, as the Eagles played it very safe with him. We'll find out very quickly just what shape Hurts is in this week.

And if the Eagles are in full form? Well, as Vince Verhei puts it in our game preview, "overachieving seasons usually end in brutal fashion in the postseason". The Eagles were the better team throughout the season in nearly every way these things can be measured; that's why Philadelphia are 7.5-point favorites. That being said, the Giants have something of a history of big postseason upsets, don't they? Brian Daboll and company are playing with house money, and a strong day on the ground behind Saquon Barkley could see them shock the world once again.

3:49 PM: Snow Game?  Snow Game!

It's not sticking yet, but we have some pretty significant (and wet) snow falling at Arrowhead.

I don't think it's full-on, flashing warning lights and siren SNOW GAME alert at his point in time; it's a little too warm to get clobbered.  But weather games are always fun to watch.

And who knows? Maybe a classic game in the snow will help the NFL reconsider the rumored plans to move all conference championship games to neutral sites...

4:45 PM: Travis Kelce May Be A Problem

The Jaguars have a 37.7% pass defense DVOA against tight ends. That may end up being an issue against Travis Kelce, who is, in fact, pretty good at this whole 'football' thing.

Kelce had four catches for 35 yards and the touchdown on the Chiefs' opening drive, and the Jaguars do not look like they have an immediate answer to the big man.

Also on this drive: a speed option, a side-arm pass, and a jump pass from Mahomes.  It's just kind of unfair that Mahomes can make anything work at any time; he's just on an entirely different level from anyone else.  Add in the Jaguars going three-and-out on their first drive, and the Jags find themselves in a tough spot.  It's only 7-0, but some first touchdowns are more demoralizing than others...

4:53 PM: Not So Fast, Kansas City!

The one area where Jacksonville may have an advantage is on special teams, and Jamal Agnew gets Jacksonville off the turf with a 63-yard return on the ensuing kickoff. Jacksonville needs to squeeze every drop out of these sort of small windows where they have an advantage if they're going to keep up with the Kansas City offense.

With the ball in Kansas City territory, the Jags then start moving. It's a little conservative; some dinks and dunks and runs, but it ends up being effective against a Chiefs defense that hasn't always been particularly tough this year.  On the eventual touchdown, Doug Pederson schemes things up so Christian Kirk gets covered by George Karlaftis, and that's not a matchup Karlaftis is going to win.

We're knotted at seven.  Game on.

5:04 PM: Patrick Mahomes Injured

This entire game has just changed. Mahomes got rolled up on on a sack, and is in clear and obvious pain.  He's refusing to come out of the game, but he's limping, skipping, and generally not walking right -- he barely managed to get the ball out on a stretch run play.  The quarter has ended, and he's come to the sideline to get things looked at, but this could be a huge, huge moment in this one.

Chad Henne is the backup, should it come to that.

Mahomes came back in to start the second quarter, and moved around a little better, but the offensive momentum stalled immediately, and Kansas City settled for a field goal.  10-7 Chiefs, but that's not the focus at the moment.

5:18 PM: Patrick Mahomes to the Locker Room

After a prolonged argument with the training staff, Mahomes has been sent to the locker room for further examination. He was begging not to be taken out, but the medical team won the argument.

Mahomes, for what it's worth, ran to the locker room. We'll see what happens, but it's the Chad Henne show at the moment.  This has a major impact not just on this game, but on the playoff pictures as a whole.

The last time Henne came in in a playoff game was the 2020 Divisional Round.  He went 6-for-8 for 66 yards, and had a big scramble to keep things going. There are worse situations to be in, but that's a silver lining Chiefs fans may not want to hear right now.

5:33 PM: Henne Leads a Drive

Mahomes is back on the sideline, in the coat, looking less frustrated.  But he's still very much on the sideline, as Henne started with the ball on Kansas City's own two yard line.  This is the moment for Jacksonville to... to...

...to give up a 98-yard touchdown drive, apparently.

To be fair, a lot of it came on this 40-yard run by Isiah "Pinball" Pacheco.

But Henne was a solid 5-for-7, albeit for just 23 yards.  He hooked up with Travis Kelce for his second touchdown of the day; it turns out Mahomes being hurt did not suddenly make the Jaguars good at covering tight ends.  And so Kansas City extends things to a 17-7 lead.  We'll see what Jacksonville has as a response.

5:49 PM: Jaguars Respond Before Half

The Jaguars respond with their longest drive of the game -- one that could have been even longer, had Christian Kirk not dropped a perfectly thrown deep pass.

Kirk makes up for it a bit with a third-down conversion a few plays later, bringing the ball into Kansas City territory.  The drive stalls out a few moments later, and the Jaguars opt to kick a field goal on 4th-and-2 from the Chiefs 23.  In most situations, this would be the wrong call, but with less than 30 seconds left in the half? Our model supports it -- it's a +0.4 decision before adjusting for Mahomes' injury, and a little bit better afterwards. With so little time left, you don't get the same amount of benefit from field position if you go for it and fail, so taking the points makes a lot more sense.  And so it's 17-10.

And that's the score at the half, as the Chiefs opt to kneel out the clock. We'll see who comes back at quarterback in the third quarter...

6:13 PM: Mahomes Back In

Yes, I know there are two teams playing in this game, but the story is all on one side.

Mahomes reportedly has a high ankle sprain, but he's come out to start the second half.  He's able to make some throws and is moving OK on straight dropbacks, but you can tell he's not comfortable.  He's not moving around nearly as much as he did in the first half, and he didn't step into a couple throws which ended up fluttering incomplete.  It may just be a matter of adjusting to the injury, but we'll keep a close eye on Mahomes' movement the rest of the way.

The Jaguars get their stop, and now have the ball down by a touchdown.

6:18 PM: Jags Punt it Back

The Jaguars are finding some room on the ground. They've rushed 13 times for 6.8 yards per rush, as Etienne started chewing up some ground on the Jaguars' subsequent drive. Unfortunately, the offensive line seems less up to the task of stopping the Kansas City pass rush, as pressure blew up multiple plays in a row.  That forced Jacksonville to punt, still down 17-10, halfway through the third quarter.

6:30 PM: Chiefs Get Conservative; Jags Return the Favor

The Chiefs go three-and-out on the response drive, and that 's a double-negative for Kansas City. First, they waste a timeout trying to challenge the spot on second-and-inches. And then, they decide to punt on 4th-and-inches after a tight end sneak fails.  By our numbers, that's a significant error; -4.2% WP lost from the punt. Will that come back to haunt them?

No. No it will not. The Jaguars pick just one first down up and have to punt it right back; with a couple failed screens keeping them in neutral. That's four punts in four drives to start the third quarter, which has been...uneventful, to say the least.

6:39 PM: Second-Half Offense!

I am not 100% convinced the Jacksonville Jaguars defense is aware that tight ends exist.

Even on a gimpy leg, Mahomes can throw to a guy who is open by 10 yards in all directions!

The drive stalls out after that, but it's enough to get in range for a 50-yard field goal. Harrison Butker hasn't been great this year, but he's also been hurt, and the healthier version of him nails it to extend Kansas City's lead to 20-10.

6:49 PM: Jaguars Still Alive

The Jaguars' best drive of the day keeps Jacksonville right in the thick of this one, as the fourth quarter starts more interesting than the previous quarter ended.

We're getting into the "do whatever it takes" portion of the game, with Jacksonville's season on the line. Lawrence has started running more, picking up a first down on a run up the middle where he took a shot at the end. And Doug Pederson is emptying the playbook -- Christian Kirk having trouble catching the ball? Get him the rock in another way.

That sets up a Travis Etienne touchdown a play later, and all of a sudden, it's a 20-17 Chiefs game, with 12 minutes left in the quarter...

7:01 PM: Chiefs Pulling Away

Right foot hurt? Can't really pivot on it any more? Just do a jump pass off your LEFT foot.  Sure.  You do you, Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs are now up 27-17 with 7:08 to go, and Jacksonville is, at the very least, in significant trouble. Oh, Jacksonville might score again; I have no doubt.  But if the Chiefs can go 75 yards in seven plays with a hurt quarterback; if they can keep taking advantage of the Jaguars rushing 10 guys in the box...what else do they have to do?  This one seems suspiciously like ballgame.

7:13 PM: Game-Winning Fumble?

The Jaguars have been hurt by drops all game long; now they're rooting for one. Jamal Agnew catches a pass inside the five yard line, but drops it on the hit.  The Chiefs scoop it up, and that should end things...as long as it actually WAS a catch.  It was a bang-bang play, and we're in review...

7:16 PM: Game-Winning Fumble.

After review, they said that this was, in fact, a catch and fumble.

We've seen enough Jacksonville football to know that strange things can happen, but that feels like it was their last, best hope.  Although they did get a three and out...

7:21 PM: Game-Sealing Interception

The three and out doesn't lead to anything, as Lawrence throws a desperation interception.  Two turnovers in their previous three plays, and now it's all over but the clock running out.

And now, Chiefs fans will start to worry about Mahomes' ankle.  It was enough to get past the Jaguars, but the Bengals and Bills are much tougher opponents. How will it respond after the adrenaline is gone? Will he be able to tape things up and go next week?  A million questions, and no answers.

8:22 PM: Dallas Goedert Starts the Scoring

The Jaguars weren't the only underdog struggling against tight ends today -- the Giants were 31st with a 31.9% DVOA.  So we might get something of a repeat of the all-Kelce, all the time game, this time with Dallas Goedert, who opens the scoring with this one-handed grab.

As for Hurts?  He opens 5-for-5 for 68 yards and a score, with a few yards in the ground, too.  He did go down very early on one rush and got out of bounds on the other, so he may be under some instructions to play it safe in regards to taking shots. We'll keep an eye on that as the game goes along.

8:29: As Strong As Your Weakest Link

We are in a stoppage because, uh, the first-down chains have broken.  Sure.  Why not.

This shouldn't take long, one would hope.

8:35 PM: Danny Dimes Hits the Dirt

After the chain delay, the Giants get a little bit of a drive gong; with Richie James and Lawrence Cager turning in a couple big plays to get New York over midfield. But they end up facing a 4th-and-8 at the Eagles 40, which is basically no man's land; with the win probability of going, punting or kicking the field goal all within 1.5% of one another. The Giants take the risk and go for it, but the Eagles get pressure and blow that up.

I appreciate the aggressiveness!

8:42 PM: Jalen Hurts Seems Fine

We said we'd monitor Hurts, to see if he's playing conservatively with his injury. The answer? No, as Hurts lowers his shoulder for a game of nine. Alright! Good to know.

The Giants' defense is just parting like the Red Sea out there, and this one is getting ugly.

There's still time, but 14-0 after 13:30 isn't the start they were hoping for.

8:48 PM: Daniel Jones Rears His Head

Until this season, Jones' turnovers were a serious issue.  He cut them down massively this season, which is a big reason why the Giants are here.  But, well, sometimes you just revert to the mean.

We're at the end of the first quarter, and this game...well, it's not over yet, but we may be vamping for a while.

9:11 PM: Ballgame.

We're about an hour after kickoff, and we're already done here.  The Giants opted to punt on a 4th-and-inches -- deep in their own territory, for sure, but still -- and the Eagles just stomped down their throats, run after run after run.  They're averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and about one pancake per play. They are just physically dominant; a superior team in basically every way.

The Giants might not end up losing by 21 points; the dogs will be called off at some point. But at this point, halfway through the second quarter? I don't see how the Giants belong on the same field as Philadelphia. This ballgame is over. ...And we've still got 2.5 quarters to liveblog. This should be...something.

9:31 PM: Patrick Mahomes May Be OK

At the very least, if I had a significantly painful ankle injury, I wouldn't show up to a hockey game.

Good sign for next week in Kansas City. Or Atlanta. Wherever.

9:36 PM: Approaching Records

Another score, 28-0.

The biggest postseason win in Eagles history is the 38-7 win over the Vikings in the 2017 NFC Championship.

The biggest postseason loss in Giants history is the 44-3 loss to the 49ers in the 1993 Divisional Round

Y'know.  Just some numbers to keep in mind.

10:05 PM: Still 12:16 Left in the Third Quarter

I'm a little surprised to see starters still in. I suppose the Giants haven't quit yet, but you don't want anyone to get hurt now...

10:14 PM: The Giants Scored!

It won't be a shutout!

I mean, the chances are still slim-to-none, with that drive taking six minutes off the clock.  But at least they won't go down with a goose egg.

10:33 PM: The Giants Have Given Up

The Giants went for it on 4th-and-8 in the first quarter.  They're now punting from roughly the same spot, on 4th-and-6.  

...What?

I mean, yes, the game is long since over, but you could at least pretend you're still trying out there, Giants; it's your season! You lose this week, you don't get to come back next week.  Mmm.  Not good.

10:52 PM: Eagles Running Away

The Eagles have 227 yards rushing; 5.5 yards per rush. Efficiency and volume.

That's a top-50 playoff rushing day of all time, and the fourth time the Eagles have topped 200 rushing yards in the playoffs.  Two times were with Steve Van Buren in the 1940s; the other was the 1980 NFC Championship against Dallas, behind Wilber Montgomery.

So the last times the Eagles ran the ball this well in the playoffs, they won a championship. Food for thought.

11:03 PM: My Contractually Guaranteed Mention of Norm Van Brocklin

The Eagles keep piling on.

The Eagles are up to 268 rushing yards, 16th-most in playoff history.  Not number one in franchise history, though!  That was 275 against the Rams in the 1949 playoffs.

The quarterback of the Rams that day was, of course, Norm Van Brocklin.

And that's as good a note as any to end this one -- we'll see you tomorrow for hopefully a pair of more competitive games.

Comments

49 comments, Last at 22 Jan 2023, 1:04pm

#1 by Cythammer // Jan 21, 2023 - 4:00pm

"All eight teams remaining standing have proven they belong on this stage."

Eh, definitely not the Giants. Not really the Jaguars either.

Tomorrow's games are much more compelling.Today I'm just hoping we don't have either of mediocre underdogs make it to next weekend.

Even exciting upsets often have the result of a boring game the following week. Good examples are the Colts that year they beat the Manning Broncos and when the Titans beat the Ravens in Lamar Jackson's MVP year. Fun games in the moment, maybe... Not so fun to watch a mediocre team get put in their place the next week when we could have had a truly great matchup instead.

Points: 2

#2 by rh1no // Jan 21, 2023 - 4:56pm

Agreed.

The Giants are 18th in weighted DVOA and the Jags are sitting at 13th ... a little better than where the Bengals were (14th) at season's end last year. The Bengals had a pretty easy draw in 2021, facing the Raiders (20th) and Titans (13th) before taking on a Chiefs (6th) team they'd beaten during the regular season.

For the Jags to pull off a similar miracle run, they'll need to top a Chiefs (3rd) team that beat them by two scores earlier this year, followed by the winner of the Bengals (4th) vs. Bills (2nd) game. That's 3 of the top 5 teams by weighted DVOA just to get tot he Super Bowl, where they'd be likely to face off against the top-ranked 49ers or the 5th-ranked Eagles. Quite a gauntlet.

Points: 0

#10 by Cythammer // Jan 21, 2023 - 5:38pm

The Bengals did play pretty well against the Chiefs... But let's be honest. If KC had played on offense against Cincinnati the way they did the week before against the Bills, they win that game by 30. KC lost that game more than the Bengals won it.

Points: -1

#15 by rh1no // Jan 21, 2023 - 6:32pm

So, uh ... why did the Chiefs decide to play worse on offense against the Bengals than they played against the Bills? Is it possible that they didn't decide to play worse? Maybe the Bengals defense impacted Kansas City's performance?

Or maybe the Bengals were just totally lucky and managed to get away with not one, not two, but three fluky wins over the same team in the same calendar year.

Points: 1

#16 by apocalipstick // Jan 21, 2023 - 6:37pm

I personally think that the Bengals are constructed (accidentally) as the Chiefs Kryptonite. For the next couple of years, I think Cincinnati will own KC.

Points: 1

#18 by rh1no // Jan 21, 2023 - 6:54pm

I think the Bengals play well against Mahomes because they see Lamar Jackson twice a year (when healthy), so they are prepared for quarterbacks who are exceptional runners. Kansas City is too good to let any team beat them four or five times in a row, so I expect Cincinnati's streak to end before long, but I think we will get to see a lot of good battles between these teams over the next few years.

Points: 0

#22 by apocalipstick // Jan 21, 2023 - 7:03pm

Disagree. Mahomes and Jackson are very different. I think Cincy's advantage is that their defense can play soft to slow the Chiefs O, because the Bengals will score against KC's D.

Points: 1

#17 by Cythammer // Jan 21, 2023 - 6:41pm

Calendar year? Who the hell ever measures anything in the NFL by calendar years? Moreover, you are on a statistics sight. You should have a basic understanding that, in fact, head to head records is not the be all, end all way of measuring team strength. The Chiefs were clearly a much better team than the Bengals last season. And yeah, the team that annihilated the top team in defensive DVOA one week is underperforming due to their own failures when they have a mediocre game against the 19th best defense the next week. Duh.

Points: 0

#26 by rh1no // Jan 21, 2023 - 7:51pm

Lots of different statistics exist, and all of them HELP us measure performance. Wins and losses are, indeed, statistics and if you are trying to determine whether Kansas City or Cincinnati is the better football team, you'd be absolutely foolish not to consider the results of recent head-to-head matchups. Calendar year is relevant because the teams are largely made up of the same playmakers and coaching staff.

Now, traditional statistics such as win/loss and point differential tell us that Kansas City has been the better team over this period. Advanced metrics such as DVOA tell a similar story; Kansas City was far more efficient on a more consistent basis than Cincinnati in 2021, though Cincinnati has closed the gap considerably in 2022.

And yet the Bengals have one very important stat in their favor: they are 3-0 against the Chiefs over the past two years. You can believe that the Chiefs simply aren't playing their best against the Bengals for unfathomable reasons, or you can perform an analysis that goes beyond just comparing season-long efficiency metrics. If you do that, you'll find that teams playing the Chiefs stopped blitzing Mahomes during 2021, effectively turning him into a Kirk Cousins-level passer. Bengals DC Lou Anarumo built a game plan around dropping eight men while dusguising their coverage schemes in an effort to confuse Mahomes, and it worked.

This stats site did a great job analyzing the AFC Championship Game and breaking down how Cincinnati's double-teams on Kelce and Hill led to coverage sacks. That article goes beyond the stats, too, showing examples of times when Bengal players simply beat up the Chiefs in the trenches to win on a play-by-play basis. 

Football Outsiders also wrote about Cincinnati's success over Kansas City after the Bengals' third consecutive victory. In that article, you'll find data-driven insights like the fact that Kansas City is 26th in the league against #1 receivers, which puts them at a huge disadvantage against Cincinnati's trio of elite receivers who all take turns lining up outside and in the slot.

Honestly, I've picked the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl this year. I've stated that I think the Bills are likely to beat the Bengals tomorrow. But I won't be surprised if Cincinnati beats Buffalo and goes on to make a second straight Super Bowl appearance. They've proven that they can outscheme and outplay the best teams in the league. Dismissing their victories "because stats" isn't a very informed opinion. Plenty of stats -- as well as film and other qualititative data -- explain why the Bengals have had success these past two seasons, and why they are likely to continue having success as long as Burrow and Chase are on the team.

Points: 5

#46 by Bob Smith // Jan 22, 2023 - 11:21am

Great analysis. Keep in mind though that Mahomes did lead his offense to a 4th quarter come-from-behind score to either tie or take the lead in all 3 games. But then Burrow did the same to help his team win the game.      Clutch performances by both guys.                                                                                                                                                         Their numbers are so similar in all 3 games but Joe does have the slight edge overall.That will often times give us an answer as to which team won.

Points: 0

#3 by Spanosian Magn… // Jan 21, 2023 - 5:12pm

If the ball slips out of the QB's hand on a pumpfake and lands just beyond the LOS, and it's ruled an incomplete pass (correctly), isn't it also intentional grounding? There were no eligible receivers within about 10 yards.

Points: 1

#11 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 21, 2023 - 5:43pm

Without an imminent risk from the defense, it’s usually treated as an inadvertent throw.

Points: 1

#13 by apocalipstick // Jan 21, 2023 - 5:57pm

Note the "intentional" portion of "intentional grounding".

Points: 2

#20 by Spanosian Magn… // Jan 21, 2023 - 6:59pm

Snark aside, "intent" in that sense is not an actual part of the rule:

It is a foul for intentional grounding if a passer, facing an imminent loss of yardage because of pressure from the defense, throws a forward pass without a realistic chance of completion.

I know it's not often (ever?) called, but that play sure seems to meet every letter of the rule as written. I guess one could plausibly challenge the "imminent loss of yardage" part because the QB is close to the line and in the process of an attempt to run past it.

Points: -1

#24 by apocalipstick // Jan 21, 2023 - 7:07pm

Nope. You trying to slice the baloney so thin it only has one side, and Mahomes's slip doesn't even meet the black-letter definition. He was not facing "imminent loss of yardage". He saw a defender sliding into the passing lane and attempted to pull it back. By your interpretation, every incompletion that sails high from a contested pocket is IG.

Points: 1

#28 by Spanosian Magn… // Jan 21, 2023 - 8:22pm

By your interpretation, every incompletion that sails high from a contested pocket is IG.

Every incompletion that doesn't have a "realistic chance of completion". I do in fact feel that is the way it ought to be enforced.

Points: 0

#4 by Spanosian Magn… // Jan 21, 2023 - 5:22pm

Big picture, I guess I only just comprehended that one of:

Josh Allen
Joe Burrow
Jalen Hurts
Daniel Jones
Trevor Lawrence
Patrick Mahomes
Dak Prescott
Brock Purdy

will be the Super Bowl Winning QB this year. Prescott, born in 1993, drafted in 2016, is the oldest and longest-tenured of that group. I think the guard has officially changed.

Points: 7

#5 by rh1no // Jan 21, 2023 - 5:30pm

I'm no Chiefs fan, and I usually root for chaos, but the hit that injured Mahomes looked pretty dirty to me.

Jaguars OLB Arden Key jumps up in the air and swats at Mahomes' arm as the Chiefs QB gets the pass of just in time. Key has every opportunity to come down on his own feet and end the play. Instead, he hangs onto Mahomes' shoulder and collapses onto the QB's leg.

Easily avoidable.

Points: -2

#12 by Spanosian Magn… // Jan 21, 2023 - 5:56pm

The Chiefs' OL is clearly pushing Key as he goes down, causing him to stumble as he's letting go of Mahomes. I'd call it friendly fire, if anything.

Points: 0

#14 by rh1no // Jan 21, 2023 - 6:09pm

Come on, now. Watch the replay. The Chiefs' lineman doesn't even have his hand on Key until Key is already wrapped around Mahomes. There's literally no force applied to Key whatsoever.

Points: -1

#38 by Pat // Jan 21, 2023 - 11:39pm

Watch it closer. The Chiefs' OL's foot gets underneath Key's - he has no leverage capability. Everything that happens after Key launches is just gravity.

Points: 1

#6 by drillz // Jan 21, 2023 - 5:31pm

What! No comment on the weak roughing the passer call.

Points: 1

#7 by drillz // Jan 21, 2023 - 5:32pm

.

Points: -1

#8 by drillz // Jan 21, 2023 - 5:32pm

.

Points: -1

#9 by drillz // Jan 21, 2023 - 5:32pm

.

Points: 0

#19 by Cythammer // Jan 21, 2023 - 6:56pm

Mahomes certainly isn't 100%. Not sure a passing offense has ever relied on a single player more in a game than KC on Kelce in this one.

Points: 0

#21 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 21, 2023 - 6:59pm

You didn't watch the second half of the Super Bowl last year or any Rams games this year?

Points: 2

#23 by Cythammer // Jan 21, 2023 - 7:06pm

Kelce had 17 of the 24 catches for KC when I posted that, I believe. He has the playoff record for most catches in a game. I don't think it was that extreme in the Super Bowl.

 

EDIT: Actually 14, 17 is his targets.

Points: 0

#32 by Kaepernicus // Jan 21, 2023 - 9:31pm

Yeah the Rams literally won a SB using the Kupp n' Stuff offense.

Points: 0

#25 by Cythammer // Jan 21, 2023 - 7:49pm

Giving up a 98-yard drive to a Chad Henne lead offense is just funny. There was more to the game, but that sums up the mediocrity of this Jags team.

Points: 4

#27 by Cythammer // Jan 21, 2023 - 8:21pm

No matter who wins this game, we are all winners... Just because no Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling playoff games on Fox anymore.

Points: 4

#30 by Cythammer // Jan 21, 2023 - 9:27pm

I never detected any evidence that either him or Buck were even slightly interested in the games they called. Mild annoyance at it being Eagles-Giants would be more emotion than Aikman ever showed in the booth.

Points: 3

#31 by Cythammer // Jan 21, 2023 - 9:30pm

The Giants winning last week was a big break for the Eagles and a bad one for the 49ers. SF has to play the Cowboys instead of the Minnesota while Philadelphia gets to enjoy a second straight bye week.

Points: 5

#48 by Rufus R. Jones // Jan 22, 2023 - 12:46pm

Is this facebook?

Points: 0

#33 by vrao81 // Jan 21, 2023 - 9:38pm

This game is a beat down. 28-0, and giants show no signs of life. Yawn

Points: 0

#34 by ImNewAroundThe… // Jan 21, 2023 - 9:46pm

Hurts is so good and fun to watch. No real reason for him to dropback next half. 

Points: 1

#35 by Cythammer // Jan 21, 2023 - 10:33pm

Punting on that fourth and six is ridiculous. Score on that drive and it's two scores with more than ten minutes left... That's far from an impossible margin.

Points: 7

#36 by vrao81 // Jan 21, 2023 - 10:47pm

Right..and now the Eagles have chewed up 8 minutes of clock. Any chance of a comeback is over.

Points: 3

#39 by jonsilver // Jan 21, 2023 - 11:43pm

I found it nearly impossible to believe Daboll would punt there. Talk about "no mas!"

Points: 0

#43 by whocares4 // Jan 22, 2023 - 7:58am

Yeah, as it an Eagles fan, I was so psyched for the punt! Coaching decisions that the opponent's fans are wildly cheering are generally bad.

Points: 0

#37 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 21, 2023 - 11:36pm

Well, it looks like the shoulder is okay and Lane can still block.

Points: 3

#40 by JoelBarlow // Jan 21, 2023 - 11:43pm

what a game for the Giants narrative 

congrats on finishing 20th in DVOA (likely to drop) with your QB and RB about to get more expensive

glad I listened to a week of "the Giants will NOT BE AFRAID going into Philly this week" - wonderful, maybe they should have been

Points: 4

#41 by occams_pointed… // Jan 21, 2023 - 11:57pm

They should go back to five teams making the playoffs in each conference. That rarely left out anyone legit.

Points: 3

#44 by coltsandrew // Jan 22, 2023 - 8:28am

I agree. I'd even go so far as to say that dispensing with wild card teams altogether would be better than what we have now.

Points: 0

#45 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 22, 2023 - 9:00am

Last two SBs were won by wildcard teams. Last year was wildcard vs wildcard.

Dallas is still in…

Points: 0

#49 by Cythammer // Jan 22, 2023 - 1:04pm

What? Neither one was. The Bengals and Rams were both division champions.

Points: 0

#47 by Pat // Jan 22, 2023 - 11:33am

Bryan:

As hilarious as it would be, the Blues clip is not from that night. Not getting to a cross-state game in an hour, guys.

Points: 0

Save 10%
& Support Bryan
Support Football Outsiders' independent media and Bryan Knowles. Use promo code KNOWLES to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Bryan.