Saturday NFL Liveblog: Jaguars, Titans Decide the AFC South

NFL Week 18 - It's the playoffs!

...OK, it's not literally the playoffs, but what else can you call a game where one team advances to play next week and the other team goes home?  That sounds like a playoff game to me, and the AFC South Championship between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans have those stakes!

...OK, so it doesn't literally have those stakes, as the Jaguars could sneak back into the playoffs if all the other AFC wildcard contenders flopped at the last moment. But it is win-or-go-home for the Titans, and a battle of two playoff-caliber teams!

...OK, calling these teams playoff-caliber might be a bit of a stretch. It's fine for the Jaguars -- they're 14th in DVOA at 1.8%, and their offense has really picked things up over the back half of the season. Trevor Lawrence is up to seventh in passing DYAR and 10th in passing DVOA, and is beginning to realize the potential he's been carrying with him, the presumptive first-overall pick since the moment he picked up a football at Clemson.  But the Titans? The Titans are stumbling along in the playoff race due to the poor general quality of the AFC South and not much else. Sitting at 7-9, and 23rd with a -8.4% DVOA, they've been forced to turn to Josh Dobbs in order to try to salvage a playoff berth which once seemed inevitable. But still, one win tonight and they're playing bonus football once more.

And we'll be covering it live in a special Saturday edition of the Football Outsiders liveblog, kicking off just before the game starts at 8:15 PM Eastern.  But we're also getting the post up early, as this will serve as an open-discussion thread for the Chiefs/Raiders opening act, where Kansas City can clinch the top seed in the AFC.  And we'll get into what that means, too. And because we're live, you can participate in the discussion as well! Join in on the conversation -- either in the comment section in this article, on Twitter by tagging @FBOutsiders or @BryKno, or on our brand new Discord server, where some of your favorite writers will be hanging out and reacting live.

Saturday Afternoon: Chiefs at Raiders

If this game gets particularly interesting, we'll pop on a bit early to cover the ending of it live, but the Chiefs are 9-point favorites and shouldn't have too much trouble pulling this one. Jarret Stidham impressed in his first ever start against the 49ers last week, and I wouldn't be at all shocked if the Raiders managed to escape with a backdoor cover -- the Chiefs are, after all, just 23rd in defensive DVOA and have had a nasty habit of playing down to their competition in recent weeks -- but when all is said and done, I expect the Chiefs to be celebrating the top seed in the AFC.

And that, in and of itself, will be somewhat controversial. As you're well aware, the Bills-Bengals game last Monday was cancelled due to Damar Hamlin's cardiac arrest. And that's hugely important for the AFC playoffs, as both the Bills and Bengals had chances for the top seed depending on the outcome of that game. By not playing it, the Chiefs have been granted something of an unfair advantage. Through no fault of their own, mind you, but that's what has happened.

A win over the Raiders today will give the Chiefs the top seed in the AFC. That would have happened anyway, but only if you assume Cincinnati would have held on to win Monday's game.  Had the Bills won, they could have earned the top seed with a win over the Patriots, regardless of what the Chiefs do against the Raiders.  The Bengals, meanwhile, could have stolen the top seed with a win Monday, a win Sunday, and a Chiefs' loss today.  That's out of the picture now, with either the Chiefs or Bills still getting the top seed depending on what happens in the Bills-Patriots game tomorrow.

Because of this, the NFL has taken the unprecedented decision to declare that the AFC Championship may be played at a neutral site.  If both the Chiefs and Bills win this weekend, a Kansas City-Buffalo title game will be held somewhere neutral.  The same thing will happen if both the Chiefs and Bills lose, only with the Bengals also getting the benefits of the neutral-site title game if they should win, as well.  Here it is in a chart:

Here are the eight new scenarios for the top seeds in the AFC.

The yellow highlighting are situations where the AFC Championship would happen at a neutral site, should things get that far.

So, there's about a 50/50 chance that the AFC Championship COULD be played neutral. pic.twitter.com/tPNaOUwHGK

— Bryan Knowles (@BryKno) January 6, 2023

Is this fair? Not fully so, though it's difficult to find a solution that was fair to everyone involved; it's sort of a least-worst option. The Bengals lose the opportunity to host the AFC Championship game -- and possibly their wildcard game, which we'll talk about on Sunday.  They also don't get the benefit of a neutral-site game if they have to play in the divisional round against Buffalo  The Chiefs get a leg up, with them winning the bye week more frequently than they would if either the Bills or Bengals had won on Monday. Trading the possibility of a home AFC Championship is probably worth the extra chances at the bye week, as well as avoiding having to play either Buffalo or Cincinnati in the divisional round. That is, however, just how the cookie crumbles. Rescheduling the Bengals-Bills game and pushing everything back would have created inequities in rest, logistical nightmares around the league. Sometimes, you just have to make the best out of a bad situation.

In less depressing news, Patrick Mahomes could break two single-season records today. With 430 passing yards, he'd pass 2013 Peyton Manning's record of 5,477. It's a tall task for sure. Mahomes has only topped that mark once this year, in the Week 9 win over the Titans when he ended up just putting the entire team on his back and led them to win in overtime, making up for misses by his kicker and defensive failures and an utter lack of a running game. He'll need the Raiders' help to break that one, as it's not going down without a shootout.

A more reasonable target is the total offense record, which Drew Brees set in 2011 with 5,404 yards of offense.  Mahomes needs just 195 yards to break that, which seems almost a given if he plays the entire game; his lowest total this year is 220 against the Bengals in Week 13.  The total offense record isn't quite as exciting as the passing yardage record, but taking down a mark held by a presumptive Hall of Famer is always worth celebrating. To which we should also note that Mahomes has 27 touchdown passes to running backs and tight ends this season, one short of the record set by Y.A. Tittle.  Consider these marks consolation prizes, with the passing yards mark probably out of reach.

Saturday Afternoon: Titans at Jaguars

On November 17th, the Titans beat the Packers, 27-17. They had just won seven of their previous eight games, Ryan Tannehill was dealing through the air, and they held a healthy lead in the AFC South. At the end of Week 11, our playoff odds gave them a 97.8% chance to win the division. And why not!  They were sitting easy a 7-3; their closest rivals were the Colts at 4-6-1, and the Jaguars? 3-7 and not really worth being concerned about. The Titans were going to cruise to victory; it would take a minor miracle for anyone to catch them.

The Titans haven't won a game since.  They haven't scored more than 22 points in a game since.  Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been 5-1 since that bye week, including a win over these Titans back in Week 14. Trevor Lawrence threw for three touchdowns in a rout, beating the Titans in Tennessee for the first time since 2013.  The defense destroyed Tennessee, with four sacks and four turnovers leading to 20 points. The game ended 36-22, but even that's a bit flattering towards Tennessee, as the Jaguars scored 29 straight points and let their feet off the gas at the end.

To be fair to the Titans, they were missing three defensive starters for that one. And Tennessee did get to rest most of their key players in a meaningless Week 17 game; having a fully-rested Derrick Henry is a terrifying thing for most defenses to face. But they're still down to third-string quarterback Joshua Dobbs, as Ryan Tannehill is on injured reserve and rookie Malik Willis has not exactly won over the confidence of the coaching staff. The Titans might also be without receiver Treylon Burks and safety Amani Hooker, both of whom went from limited participation earlier in the week to not practicing on Thursday -- usually bad signs for participation, though I'm sure they'll do everything they can to hit the field in a must-win game. Watch their status, as well as cornerback Kristian Fulton, who has missed the last month with a groin injury but is working his way back towards participation.

As for the Jaguars? They're looking ready to rock. Travon Walker looks to have fully worked himself back into health, and everyone else should be ready to go.  The Jaguars are a better, healthier team on paper, which is why they're 6.5-point favorites. But they don't play games on paper; it's a terrible surface. Playoff games tend to bring out some strange results, so even though this one isn't technically a playoff game, it should be fascinating to watch.

6:15 PM: Chiefs at Raiders

So, how is this one going?

So this just happened? 😂

📺: #KCvsLV on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/nMh7vXuCB4 pic.twitter.com/rbasxmK9yJ

— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2023

That didn't count, so the Chiefs had to score normally on the next play.  Boo.  Boo, I say!

Either way, with a 24-6 lead halfway through the third quarter, it's safe to say the Chiefs have won the AFC at this point.  Now, they'll need the Bills to lose to ensure they host the AFC Championship.  It's been an odd year.

6:46 PM: Titans at Jaguars

There is a record that can -- nay, will -- fall in this one.  Ryan Stonehouse is going to knock Sammy Baugh out of the record books.

In 1940, Baugh averaged 51.4 yards per punt. That record has stood ever since -- challenged by Shane Lechler, Andy Lee, Corey Bojorquez, etc -- but never beaten.  Until now.  Stonehouse comes in averaging 53 yards per punt; it would take an absolute nightmare of a game for him to lose it. And by nightmare, I mean averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 yards per kick. It's just not going to happen.

Not to put any shade on Baugh, a true NFL legend, but he had some advantages Stonehouse did not. His record was set on only 35 punts; Stonehouse has about two and half times as many punts. Baugh also had quite a few quick kicks, booting the ball on first- or second-down without a returner back to field the punt. That gave him credit for rolls that Stonehouse just doesn't get. That was the way the game was played in 1940, and so Baugh's punting stats are slightly inflated by today's standards. For Stonehouse to break the record, despite that handicap? Impressive indeed.

7:16 PM: Titans at Jaguars

Good news for the Titans -- all the questionable players are active! Treylon Burks, Amani Hookier and Kristian Fulton are all good to go. They're not at full strength by any means, but they'll have enough ammunition to at least fight back against Jacksonville.  Here's to the best possible game.

8:08 PM: Titans at Jaguars

JHeidelberg, via the FO Discord: Has anyone had a 6 game losing streak at any time during the season and made the playoffs? I know that the Jets were 10-1 and lost 5 straight and made the playoffs at 10-6 in 1986. Then they won the first game of the playoffs

It's happened twice, actually!  The 1970 Bengals won the first-ever AFC Central title that way.  And the 2020 Bears slipped into the seventh seed despite going 0-6 in the middle of the year.

The 2014 Panthers deserve an honorable mention, as they went 0-6-1 over a seven-game streak on their way to the postseason.

The Titans would join an illustrious list.

8:30 PM: 7:20, 1st Quarter

Cagey beginning, which is polite speak for "nothing much going on".  The well-rested Derrick Henry has one rush for 10 yards...and four more for a total of seven.  Not much going on there.  Meanwhile, the Jaguars lined up for 4th-and-1 after Zay Jones slipped and fell, but they were just going with the ol' hut-hut and ended up punting.  Given the same choice, the Titans went for it on 4th & 3...and converted.  Something to keep in mind, there...

8:40 PM: 1:23, 1st Quarter

The Titans convert not one but two fourth-downs on their second drive of the game. Our model likes both decisions, as Tennessee is playing this like a playoff game. Which it is, for them! They've got to win! Time to open all the stops!

...Except maybe this one.  Leave this one in the playbook.

You can’t do that

pic.twitter.com/U2vcg04q9I

— Stadium (@Stadium) January 8, 2023

That's an illegal forward pass, which knocks the Titans back to the spot of their last fourth down conversion.  That basically necessitates the 51-yard field goal, and the Titans take the 3-0 lead.

8:54 PM: 9:21, 2nd quarter

The Jaguars get their first extended drive of the game, as things begin to settle in to more what I was expecting out of this one.  The Jaguars are, on paper, the better team, so seeing them move the ball effectively makes sense; they're averaging 4.6 yards per play to Tennessee's 3.8. It did require a big conversion on 3rd-and-13, but the combination of a too-soft Tennessee zone and the arm of Trevor Lawrence converts that one; an absolute bullet to Christian Kirk keeps the drive alive.  Yes sir, there's no way the Jaguars are coming up empty on this one, no siree...

Loose ball picked up by @RashadWeaver ‼️

📺: #TENvsJAX on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/7G4GCGiaVR pic.twitter.com/nXzymIMALH

— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2023

I'm not sure why the Jags felt the need to get a little tricky there with the option pitch, but they're fortunate this one didn't go the other way. The Jags won in Week 14 in large part due to turnovers; this one goes against them, and it's still 3-0.

9:01 PM: 5:32, 2nd quarter

The Jaguars had 20 points off of turnovers in the Week 14 win.  The Titans now have seven tonight.

Derrick Henry is beginning to get warmed up after getting nowhere in the first quarter.  12 carries for 47 yards isn't all that astonishing, but he's averaging nearly five yards a pop since the Titans' first drive, and is beginning to punish defenders -- he had a hellacious stiffarm on his way to a first down. And then, with the Jags defenders sneaking up and Joshua Dobbs sitting at a sub-1.0 aDOT, Chigoziem Okonkwo goes up the sidelines...

The @Titans extend their lead!

📺: #TENvsJAX on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/7G4GCGiaVR pic.twitter.com/2jVWkD1578

— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2023

10-0 Titans lead.  We weren't expecting that, now were we?

9:09 PM: 2:36, 2nd quarter

The ensuing kickoff after the Titans touchdown is a 54-yard return from Jamal Agnew. There's been a discussion about the difference between Ryan Stonehouse' gross punting and net punting stats; how much he's responsible for that versus his coverage units. Well, I know the kickoff and punt coverage units aren't exactly 1-to-1 comparable, but giving up a return like that does put a point into "not the kickers fault" box.

Excluding the weird flip, Trevor Lawrence has looked pretty darn solid so far.  11-for-13 for 98 yards and a touchdown.  The touchdown was a good throw, sure, but he was helped by perfect protection and a coverage scheme that seemed to just let Christian Kirk run free.

Lawrence ➡️ Kirk. @Jaguars are back within 3.

📺: #TENvsJAX on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/7G4GCGiaVR pic.twitter.com/LIKvqb4K2s

— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2023

We have a ballgame.  Still 10-7 Titans, but at least it's not a runaway.

9:26 PM: End of the Second Quarter

Tight end.  Tight end.  Tight end.  Okonkwo and Hooper have combined for six of Tennessee's 12 receptions, for 69 yards and a touchdown. This is not surprising - the Jaguars are 31st in DVOA against tight ends and, well, Tennessee isn't exactly loaded at wide receiver; no one's going to even have 600 receiving yards on the team.

The Titans manage to drain the last 2:31 off the clock and kick a field goal, taking a 13-7 lead at the half. They've been controlling the ball for the vast majority of the contest; they've run 36 plays to Jacksonville's 20, and have held the ball for nearly 18 minutes. On a per-play basis, the Jaguars have still been better, but that doesn't matter so much when you don't have the ball. The turnover, and the decision to punt, are looming large. As things stand right now, the Jaguars would be counting on the other AFC wildcard teams to screw up if they wanted to get into the postseason; the Titans have the AFC South in their sights.  This is about as close to an even game as you can get.  I was fearing a blowout, so this is good!

9:52 PM: 10:09, 3rd quarter

Oh, Trevor.

The Jaguars' first drive of the second half is only their fourth possession of the game, and it's their best. Lawrence keeps the Jaguars marching right down field, converting a big third-and-7 to Christian Kirk, hitting Marvin Jones down the middle to get the Jaguars into the red zone, and has them set to take their first lead of the game.  On 3rd-and-7 from the 8, Zay Jones gets wide open in the end zone, and Lawrence...misses him.  Just plain overthrows it.

Não pode errar esse passe, Trevor Lawrence... 🤦‍♂️#NFLnaESPN #Titans #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/Ec5RMobKt6

— Endzone Brasil (@Endzone_Brasil) January 8, 2023

That HAS to be a touchdown.  4th-and-7 is a very, very tough decision spot, too.  The Jags opt for the field goal to cut the lead to 13-10, but that's a missed opportunity.

10:02 PM: 6:02, 3rd quarter

Josh Dobbs is playing...good?  Let's leave it at 'good'.  14-for-20 for 136 yards and a score isn't going to headline anything, but it's been efficient and effective when he's been asked to make plays.  And zero turnovers and zero sacks are great, too; avoiding making the back-breaking mistake.

They nearly make the backbreaking mistake when Derrick Henry, with multiple players draped over him, fires a pass into triple coverage, but a pass interference penalty bails them out some.  The drive sputters to a stop not long after, but it's in field goal range, and Randy Bullock makes things a 16-10 game for Tennessee.  Still just a one score game, mind you...

10:10 PM: 4:02, 3rd quarter

Christian Kirk is having himself a night.  Six receptions, 99 yards and a touchdown, as he keeps finding ways to get wide open.  He may have been an overpay, but he's at least delivering for Jacksonville tonight.

What a signing @ckirk has been for #DUUUVAL

📺: #TENvsJAX on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/7G4GCGiaVR pic.twitter.com/X75E00RUIr

— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2023

But this drive comes to naught, as the Titans force a punt.  That's another opportunity wasted for Jacksonville, and they're getting to the point where possessions are going to start coming at a premium. They might be limited to just two more possessions to eat into this six-point deficit; something has to give and soon.

10:18 PM: 0:41, 3rd quarter

Something has given, and soon.

The Titans ripped off a huge run from Derrick Henry...but a holding flag brought it back, pinning the Titans inside the 20.  On third-and-a-mile, Dobbs feels like he has to force a throw deep, when he really didn't have to...

Intercepted by @tysoncampbell_!

📺: #TENvsJAX on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/7G4GCGiaVR pic.twitter.com/iKOjo6D5Fb

— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2023

Jaguars find themselves in scoring position...

10:24 PM: 14:49, 4th quarter

...And stop in scoring position, as well.  Jacksonville holds them to a quick three-and-out.  Faced with 4th-and-3 from the 18, the Jaguars opt to kick another field goal.

Our model has that as a small mistake; about a 2% loss in win probability. It's close enough that's probably fine as a judgment call, but the Jags have made a few of these judgment calls so far, and they're trailing 16-13.  They have to find a way into the end zone at some point, you would think...

10:39 PM: 9:45, 4th quarter

Three-and-out.  Three-and-out.  Three-and-out.   The fourth quarter has been spent going nowhere, which means it's been mostly played with Tennessee's back to their own end zone.  But we've lost about five minutes, and Jacksonville hasn't been able to cut into Tennessee's lead any more.  Something has to give at some point; we're surely not going to punt away the last ten minutes of this...right?

10:53 PM: 2:51, 4th quarter

Another three-and-out, and then the most exciting thing -- first downs!  The Titans start moving the ball and chewing clock.  Getting the ball with 8:06 left, the manage to drain five minutes off the clock.  And maybe thet get a little cocky, because they drop back to pass.  Josh Dobbs has no sense the pressure is coming from his blind side, and...

The @Jaguars take the lead! #DUUUVAL

📺: #TENvsJAX on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/7G4GCGiaVR pic.twitter.com/9veHZEkNth

— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2023

That's reviewed, and confirmed.  The Jaguars take a 20-16 lead with 2:51 to play.  WOW.

10:59 PM: 2:00, 4th quarter

We've hit the two-minute warning, with the Jaguars holding onto a 20-16 lead. More importantly, perhaps; Tennessee has the ball at midfield with all three time-outs remaining. It feels like there's another chapter to be written in this one.

It hasn't been the cleanest game in the world, but you couldn't ask for much of a better ending.  Redemption for Josh Dobbs? Or is Duval going to host a playoff game?

11:06 PM: 1:30, 4th quarter

4th-and-13, the game on the line, the season on the line.  What do you call? What brilliant play do you have in your arsenal?

...A little dump-off to Hassan Haskins that ends up four yards short of the first down. You're kidding me. Not even a throw to the sticks? Tennessee deserves to go home for that.

And go home they will.  Jacksonville is kneeling out the clock.  Tennessee is going to end the year with seven straight losses, and lose the AFC South.  What a disappointing end to the game.

...But hey, at least Ryan Stonehouse broke Baugh's punt record!  That's something, right?  No?  OK.

The Jaguars are going to the playoffs, and we're signing off the liveblog.  Congratulations to Jacksonville, and we'll see you tomorrow for the rest of Week 18!