Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

SITE NOTE: No Junkie This Week

Just a quick note that due to Internet troubles at the Levine house, there won't be Confessions of a Football Junkie this week. Our first college football article of the week will be Fremeau Efficiency Ratings on Wednesday.

Titans Not Hurt by Defensive Penalties
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Titans Not Hurt by Defensive Penalties

This week's MNF feature over at explains how the league's most penalized defense this season can also be the league's best.

10 comments, Last at 28 Oct 2008, 5:13pm by Anonymouser

ESPN Numbers Crunching: Week 8

Here's our weekly look at matchups featuring Football Outsiders stats. This week's column includes a lot of our individual defensive statistics, including clear evidence of opposing quarterbacks avoiding Nnamdi Asomugha.

5 comments, Last at 24 Oct 2008, 2:15pm by panthersnbraves
Week 7 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Week 7 DVOA Ratings

A blackout can't hide the Buffalo Bills, who zoom up from 20th to 11th after beating San Diego. Meanwhile, in the NFC, the Beasts of the East now number just three.

89 comments, Last at 26 Oct 2008, 12:56pm by Hawaiian Madness

ESPN Numbers Crunching: Week 7

Here is our weekly look at NFL matchups using Football Outsiders stats. This week's prediction: big weeks for Dhani Jones, Devin Hester, and Wes Welker.

8 comments, Last at 17 Oct 2008, 1:00pm by Temo
Week 6 DVOA Ratings
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Week 6 DVOA Ratings

How can the best team in the league be 3-3? Has DVOA's love for the Philadelphia Eagles finally pierced the boundaries of absurdity? Or is it a "West Coast Offense" issue? Aaron Schatz investigates.

63 comments, Last at 18 Oct 2008, 6:48am by Anonymous

Tony Romo Out Four Weeks with Broken Finger

Remember when we said that the Cowboys had gone through a couple of years enjoying good luck when it came to health, and they might not be as good expected if they had to dip into their depth? Um, yeah.

57 comments, Last at 16 Oct 2008, 9:13am by Lance
Week 5 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Week 5 DVOA Ratings

The Giants lead the NFL in DVOA after five weeks and are playing better than most people seem to realize. The same can be said for the surprising teams in second and third place, who are a combined 4-5.

86 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2008, 3:46pm by Hank

Updating Northern California Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Sports

Our good friend Ben Alamar asked us to pass this along; he's putting on this conference on sports statistics and operations research. It's October 18 in Atherton, California, down near Palo Alto, and there are a lot of interesting football papers being presented -- I'm particularly interested to read the ones on play-calling and an attempt to use "new growth theory" (whatever that is) to quantify coaching. We've tried a few different things to quantify the effects of coaching, and we haven't had any success. Anyway, the more academically-inclined Bay Area FO readers should consider attending.

14 comments, Last at 06 Oct 2008, 2:59pm by Boston Dan

DVOA Chile (Slight Return)

A slight update on DVOA after Monday Night Football (click link for more.)

17 comments, Last at 02 Oct 2008, 12:02pm by jonnyblazin