Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

Week 7 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Week 7 DVOA Ratings

A blackout can't hide the Buffalo Bills, who zoom up from 20th to 11th after beating San Diego. Meanwhile, in the NFC, the Beasts of the East now number just three.

89 comments, Last at 26 Oct 2008, 12:56pm by Hawaiian Madness

ESPN Numbers Crunching: Week 7

Here is our weekly look at NFL matchups using Football Outsiders stats. This week's prediction: big weeks for Dhani Jones, Devin Hester, and Wes Welker.

8 comments, Last at 17 Oct 2008, 1:00pm by Temo
Week 6 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Week 6 DVOA Ratings

How can the best team in the league be 3-3? Has DVOA's love for the Philadelphia Eagles finally pierced the boundaries of absurdity? Or is it a "West Coast Offense" issue? Aaron Schatz investigates.

63 comments, Last at 18 Oct 2008, 6:48am by Anonymous

Tony Romo Out Four Weeks with Broken Finger

Remember when we said that the Cowboys had gone through a couple of years enjoying good luck when it came to health, and they might not be as good expected if they had to dip into their depth? Um, yeah.

57 comments, Last at 16 Oct 2008, 9:13am by Lance
Week 5 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Week 5 DVOA Ratings

The Giants lead the NFL in DVOA after five weeks and are playing better than most people seem to realize. The same can be said for the surprising teams in second and third place, who are a combined 4-5.

86 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2008, 3:46pm by Hank

Updating Northern California Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Sports

Our good friend Ben Alamar asked us to pass this along; he's putting on this conference on sports statistics and operations research. It's October 18 in Atherton, California, down near Palo Alto, and there are a lot of interesting football papers being presented -- I'm particularly interested to read the ones on play-calling and an attempt to use "new growth theory" (whatever that is) to quantify coaching. We've tried a few different things to quantify the effects of coaching, and we haven't had any success. Anyway, the more academically-inclined Bay Area FO readers should consider attending.

14 comments, Last at 06 Oct 2008, 2:59pm by Boston Dan

DVOA Chile (Slight Return)

A slight update on DVOA after Monday Night Football (click link for more.)

17 comments, Last at 02 Oct 2008, 12:02pm by jonnyblazin
Week 4 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Week 4 DVOA Ratings

It's the NFC East's world, and we're all just living in it. The league's toughest division puts four teams in the top eight this week, including the second-best 2-2 team in DVOA history.

80 comments, Last at 06 Oct 2008, 4:56pm by Anonymous

Aaron Schatz on B.S. Report

Here's a link to this week's B.S. Report, I'll be appearing this season roughly every three or four weeks. This week, Bill Simmons and I talk about the Patriots' loss to Miami (from a Pats fan perspective, of course), what the schedule means for the Buffalo Bills, and whether or not the Cowboys will develop an offense to challenge the 2007 Pats, 1999 Rams, and 1994 49ers among the all-time greats. Link goes to Bill Simmons page, look on right side for podcast.

18 comments, Last at 26 Sep 2008, 4:41pm by nibiyabi

SITE NEWS: Midseason KUBIAK Update Now Available

The midseason KUBIAK update is now available for download. All projections have been updated based on DAVE ratings as well as changes in player roles over the past three weeks. Projections are done for the remainder of the season, not including the past three weeks. IDP are not done. The zip file you will download contains both the midseason update and the final preseason KUBIAK (team defense version) for comparison purposes.