Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

2008 DVOA Projections

The DVOA projections for 2008, updated with all the preseason injuries and lineup changes, force us to jump off a postseason bandwagon we were driving ourselves. Plus: Changes in store for Football Outsiders in 2008.

128 comments, Last at 11 Sep 2008, 4:52pm by NE fan

B.S. Report 9/2/08

I'll be appearing regularly on Bill Simmons' "B.S. Report" podcast this season; here's our first edition, with a look at lots of material from PFP 08 and many of my thoughts about the upcoming season. Link goes to Simmons' main page on ESPN; look for the podcast over on the right side.

17 comments, Last at 06 Sep 2008, 10:02pm by Duff Soviet Union

FO on ESPN: Top 10 Prospects

If you haven't had a chance to pick up Pro Football Prospectus 2008, here's a (slightly re-ordered) look at the under-the-radar prospects who top our second annual Top Prospects list.

8 comments, Last at 04 Sep 2008, 12:08am by TomC

Bengals Cut Johnson, Anderson, Brooks, O'Neal

I realize that I created a separate thread to discuss all the cuts this weekend but I think the Bengals cuts deserve special mention because of the caliber of players cut. Rudi Johnson was one of the league's top backs less than two years ago, so here's another data point in our argument that running backs are generally overrated and overpaid. Still, I would be shocked if Chris Perry makes it through an entire season as the starter. Willie Anderson was in the Pro Bowl two years ago, but he has injury issues and demonstrates just how quickly football players can go downhill because of age.

38 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2008, 9:36am by zlionsfan

Surprise NFL Cuts Thread

Saturday is the day teams need to cut down to 53-man rosters which means there are a lot of cuts. Most of them are expected. ("Gee, the Texans got rid of LeRon McCoy? Who the heck is LeRon McCoy?") However, some are not, so I figured I would start a thread to discuss the most surprising drops, where those guys might end up, and so forth. So far, some of the more surprising cuts include Houston getting rid of Rosevelt Colvin and Anthony Maddox, St. Louis finally giving up on the Marques Hagans experiment, and the Bears ditching 2007 second-round pick Dan Bauzin.

61 comments, Last at 01 Sep 2008, 11:57pm by t.d.

PFP 08 Interview on ESPN First Take

For those interested in watching, here's a video of my appearance on ESPN First Take yesterday.

21 comments, Last at 28 Aug 2008, 9:41am by Israel

Fifth Anniversary Special: Best and Worst TE Seasons, 95-07

The final part of our look at 13 years of individual DVOA stats is dominated by four men: Gates, Gonzalez, Witten, and Sharpe.

17 comments, Last at 27 Aug 2008, 3:50pm by JohnB

FO Chat at

This week's chat focuses on fantasy football, with questions about KUBIAK projections, Josh Morgan, rookie running backs, and plenty more. Plus: Do I still believe Baltimore will win AFC North? You better believe it.

20 comments, Last at 22 Aug 2008, 12:52pm by zlionsfan

Kevin Curtis to Have Sports Hernia Surgery

Bad news for those DVOA faves, the Philadelphia Eagles. Of course, Donovan McNabb has lived without a number one receiver before and he can do it again, but it isn't like the guys behind Curtis are really starting quality. (Actually, let's be honest, the number one receiver in Philadelphia is Brian Westbrook...)

41 comments, Last at 24 Aug 2008, 10:27am by Xeynon

Fifth Anniversary Special: Best and Worst WR Seasons, 95-07

Find out all the wide receiver records in DVOA and DYAR, from the best (Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Az Hakim) to the worst (Bobby Wade, Dez White, Az Hakim).

57 comments, Last at 22 Aug 2008, 2:38am by thestar5