Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

FO Chat on BP.com

Here's a transcript of today's chat promoting Pro Football Prospectus 2008. Among the subjects discussed: Poor projections for the Bears, good projections for the Ravens, and why so many wide receivers come out so high in the 2008 KUBIAK numbers. Plus: The difference between DPAR and DYAR in three sentences or less.

18 comments, Last at 20 Jul 2008, 12:57pm by Andrew (A.B.)

FO Mailbag: Best Defense Never to Win a Title

Answering a question which recently came up in another discussion thread... which is the best defense in NFL history that never took home a championship? (Click to read more.)

53 comments, Last at 22 Jul 2008, 7:29am by Tom Kelso

Fifth Anniversary Special: Best and Worst QB Games 95-07

Happy (Early) Birthday to Us! We kick off the fifth anniversary celebration with this look at the best and worst quarterback games of the DVOA Era according to our new and improved DYAR stats.

74 comments, Last at 25 Jul 2008, 10:17am by Geronimo

Peyton Manning Out 4-6 Weeks

Commence panic in three... two... one... Peyton Manning had surgery to remove an infected bursa sac from his left knee and is out 4-6 weeks. Assuming there are no complications, he'll miss training camp and be back before the regular season begins. I suppose this could hurt the Colts because he'll have less time to practice timing with receivers, but he's played with those guys forever anyway. Perhaps this might hurt our big sleeper Anthony Gonzalez, but I'm still a lot more worried about Marvin Harrison than I am about Manning, Gonzalez, or the Colts as a team.

51 comments, Last at 18 Jul 2008, 2:21pm by Chris

DYAR Mailbag

Aaron Schatz re-introduces True Yards (which now works correctly) and answers your questions about our new DYAR stats, explaining what changed and what didn't. Plus: Whatever happened to adjusting DVOA for weather?

107 comments, Last at 29 Jul 2008, 6:20pm by Jim Glass

FO on ESPN.com: Top RB Draft Classes

This week's ESPN.com column uses the method from PFP 2007's "Best Running Back Seasons" essay to figure out the best running back draft classes in modern NFL history. Part one looks at the best rookie seasons, while part two looks at the best classes in career value. Both parts are now posted as of Friday afternoon.

17 comments, Last at 14 Jul 2008, 3:25pm by David H

Super Bowl Performance Has Spagnuolo Highly Touted

ESPN.com did this big poll of head coaches, asking mostly the usual questions ("Which player would you start a franchise with?") but also some unexpected ones, like "Who's the best assistant coach in the league." Surprise, surprise, the winner was the same man who won last year's FO Bill Arnsbarger award for best coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo of the Giants. If he's not a head coach by March 2009, I'll be shocked. I always like these "who would make a good head coach" discussions because it is nice to hear about some of the lesser-known assistants out there.

17 comments, Last at 14 Jul 2008, 4:41pm by MJK

DPAR is Dead

With KUBIAK now on sale and Pro Football Prospectus 2008 ready to hit stores, it's time to introduce the big changes in our individual stats for the 2008 season. Say goodbye to DPAR and hello to DYAR and True Yards.

230 comments, Last at 17 Aug 2008, 8:32am by Ronjan

Peter King: Nightmare in Green Bay

Peter King (who else?) has a good summary of why Brett Favre's decision to un-retire causes so many problems for the Packers, but I'm actually not sure it causes as many problems as people think. Yes, like everyone else, I'm completely frustrated with Favre's Hamlet performance every single offseason. Yes, the Packers have two years left on Aaron Rodgers's rookie contract, and if they don't give him the starting job now he's going to be miserable and probably gone in 2010. Yes, that means they sort of wasted a first-round pick.

86 comments, Last at 13 Jul 2008, 4:31pm by BadgerT1000

"A Few Seconds of Panic" Preview

As some of you know may know, Wall Street Journal reporter Stefan Fatsis went to training camp with the Denver Broncos as a kicker back in 2006, in order to write about the NFL from the inside. The resulting book, A Few Seconds of Panic, comes out this Thursday. I read an advance copy on my recent vacation and I really recommend it to FO readers. The players on the Broncos really open up to Fatsis and the wide variety of personalties is fascinating.

10 comments, Last at 04 Jul 2008, 11:53am by Theo, Netherlands