Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

Football Commentary: Week 9 Strategy Review

William Krasker's weekly rundown of strategy questions takes Ed Reed to task for running back his interception for a touchdown in the final minute against Cleveland, and analyzes Herm Edwards' decision to take the wind instead of the ball after the initial coin toss. Also worth reading: William's article suggesting that losing teams stop the clock with an intentional penalty if, before the final minute, they give up a first down that would otherwise allow their opponent to kneel and taste victory.

TMQ: Unbelieveable

Our man Gregg Easterbrook channels both Joe Theismann and EMF this week, rightfully complains about the hideous Bengals uniforms, and prints an email from a fellow named Mark Schatzman who is not, in fact, related to me. Plus the usual sweet plays, sour plays, teams chickening out, and so on.

Week 9 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 9, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. Aaron explains why, despite consecutive victories over New England and Philadelphia, the Pittsburgh Steelers are still ranked third. He also has some thoughts on the Colts and Vikings from last night's Monday Night Football contest.

Snap Judgment: Midseason Review

The latest from me and the rest of the gang at ESPN Page 2's Snap Judgment column. This week we review the best and worst quarterbacks of the first half of the season, look ahead to the second half, and ask: "Who in the heck was Aaron Brooks throwing to?" Also, DPAR ratings for every quarterback for Week 9, including a detailed explanation of why opponent adjustments were really strong this week.

1 comment, Last at 31 Jan 2007, 9:15am by appetite suppressant

MMQB: Downright Dominant

The latest from Peter King celebrates Pittsburgh. Now, the Steelers are very good, but I think they've passed from underrated to well-respected to a stage called "let's not get carried away here." They are not the 1985 Bears. I will point out, however, that the Steelers were the consensus FO pick for AFC North champion in the preseason.

Ron Borges Needs to Put Down the Crack Pipe

OK, that's not the actual title of the article. The actual title of the article is "At Midseason, Falcons' Vick is Clear MVP."

Heh heh.


Wait, you mean he's not kidding?

Refreshing Brees

Does it seem like every football writer that you read regularly penned an article about Drew Brees on Wednesday? Guess what, you're right, and that includes Football Outsiders. Now, in an expanded version of an article from Wednesday's New York Sun, Aaron says that it isn't a surprise that Brees has had a rebound season in 2004. Coming to that conclusion introduces the FO version of a classic baseball analysis tool: similarity scores.

1 comment, Last at 21 Apr 2006, 2:06pm by Software

Most Halftime Adjustments Are Hot Air

Phil Simms is feeling cranky. "In fifteen years of playing I can't even remember even two adjustments we made at halftime... You have spent a hundred hours in that week preparing for the game, drawing out detailed plans, and you have a contingency plan that basically covers almost every scenario in the game. Why would you need to make a lot of adjustments at halftime? After our 1986 Monday Night Football game in San Francisco, a lot of people asked me what adjustments we made to account for climbing out of a 17-0 hole at halftime to beat the 49ers 21-17... Well, I tied my shoelaces tighter.

Football Commentary: Week 8 Strategy Review

The latest strategy analysis from our friend William Krasker looks at Houston's fake field goal against Jacksonville, Tennessee's first half-ending touchdown attempt, and Detroit's unfortunate choice to go for it on 4th-and-1 at the Dallas 37-yard line with 11:44 remaining. Right choice, stupid play by center Dominic Raiola, who tried to draw an offsides and ended up getting Joey Harrington hammered.

Week 8 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 8, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week's discussion topics include the Patriots loss and their upcoming opponents in St. Louis -- by far our lowest-ranked winning team. Plus, what upcoming schedules have to say about which teams are going to make the AFC playoffs.