Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

VOA Mailbag

Aaron answers your questions about VOA and our other statistics in his biweekly mailbag. Learn how many points a touchback is worth, how Kurt Warner could make our list of the top 10 passing performances since 2000 without throwing a touchdown, and what Aaron thinks of the new book Patriot Reign. Plus, a question about NFC West teams playing better at home leads to some interesting numbers about home field advantage in general.

6 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 9:22am by car wash video

Drew Bledsoe: An NFL Never-Was

This article from the new Patriots blog Cold Hard Football Facts argues that Drew Bledsoe is not a great quarterback who is now in decline. According to writer Kerry Byrne, he was never a great quarterback to begin with. You know, as I was researching my TNR article on Byron Leftwich, I came across a few comparisons of Leftwich to Bledsoe, physically (in the words of Butch from the Cape: "He's tall, he's got a strong arm"). But mentally, I mean, Leftwich's sense of what's going on around him is miles ahead of Bledsoe.

FO at TNR: Byron Leftwich Dispels a Myth

In my latest piece for The New Republic, I discuss how Byron Leftwich is dispelling a racial myth by playing mediocre football. He's the first African-American quarterback to follow in the footsteps of Tom Brady and Trent Dilfer as a "game manager" -- well-regarded for intelligence and leadership instead of flashy plays and dazzling stats.

Mike Vanderjagt: Flush with an Ace Kicker

Indianapolis has the best kicker in the league, right? Nope. In this article reprinted from the New York Sun, Aaron explains why David Akers, not Mike Vanderjagt, sets the gold standard for kickers.

1 comment, Last at 29 Nov 2005, 12:33am by dan

Dr. Z's Power Rankings: Back in the Saddle

There are 100 power rankings out there on the Web (heck, I do one too) but Dr. Z's are usually good for information about how teams are playing and how coaches are thinking. The information contained within is a better reason to read than the rankings themselves, although they make more sense now that Dr. Z has gotten rid of his early season "can't rank anyone above a team that beat them" nonsense.

2 comments, Last at 12 Feb 2007, 12:37pm by fentermine

Football Commentary: Week 3 Strategy Review

Here's the latest math-heavy strategy review from our friend William Krasker. This week he looks into whether Kansas City was correct in going for a first down on 4th-and-2 from the Houston 6-yard line, and discusses Joe Gibbs' series of controversial timeouts. He also takes issue with the official NFL recap referring to the Rams going for it on 4th-and-1 in overtime as "ill-advised."

TMQ: Beware the Wrath of Lambasthor

In his latest Tuesday Morning Quarterback, Gregg Easterbrook discusses the new book The Meaning of Sports by Michael Mandelbaum and introduces us to the football gods. Plus the usual assortment of curious tactics, best blocks, and season-changing plays.

Week 3 VOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 3, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. Aaron explains why the 2004 Jaguars are superior to the 2003 Panthers, exposes the shocking truth about the Kansas City defense, and laments for his injury-riddled Super Bowl pick. Plus, the top ten passing performances of 2000-2004 according to Football Outsiders, topped by Peyton Manning's vivisection of the Green Bay Packers.

Grossman, Gordon, Garner Out for Season

Well, here's your big injury of Week 3, and it is a doozy. Rex Grossman won't be using this season to hone his skills as Chicago quarterback because he is out for the year after tearing his right ACL. Jonathan Quinn is going to be starting for the Bears, who have got to be looking at the waiver wire now if they have any hope of competing this season. Hey, the Chiefs just waived Damon Huard... In other injury news, Miami reporters are saying Lamar Gordon is out for the year. Boy, it just gets worse for the Dolphins. Charlie Garner's season (and possibly career?) is over in Tampa.

Snap Judgment: 300 Yards and Clouds of Dust

Here's today's ESPN Page 2 Snap Judgment, featuring quarterback ratings and comments by yours truly. According to PAR (Points Above Replacement), Peyton Manning's game yesterday was the best game by a quarterback since my numbers begin in 2000. Thanks to reader Brian Walsh for the excellent Dolphins' offense joke, although I liked Brian's version better than the ESPN edit.