Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

Gregg Easterbrook's Mistake

It's one thing to say something stupid on ESPN and get fired by ESPN. It's another thing to say something stupid somewhere else... and get fired by ESPN.

1 comment, Last at 14 Sep 2007, 11:08am by Hudson

Checking Out Early Trends

Aaron has poured through the statistics to find interesting tidbits about each team in 2003. Many of the things we noticed in our pre-season IN FOCUS articles are still true, while other teams have new tendencies this season. Learn the shocking fact about Carolina's offense, some bad news for Denver fans, and why Steve Spurrier still doesn't know where to run. Sorted by game to help you better enjoy the coming weekend.

Week 6 Team Efficiency Ratings

This week, we finally add special teams into the VOA formula. Find out what it means for Kansas City, Carolina, and the mystery team that moved from #22 to #12 on this week's rankings. Oh, and Tampa Bay is back at #1.

2 comments, Last at 12 Nov 2005, 8:01am by Michael David Smith

The Jets, Continued

OK, so how the heck are the Jets ranked so dang high this week? Aaron searches for an explanation and finds out why the Jets are the Miami Heat of football.

Week 5 Team Efficiency Ratings

Week 5 team efficiency ratings are here, with a new top team: Minnesota. In this week's commentary, Aaron counters the conventional wisdom that Dallas has the league's top offense, explains why Carolina still isn't that good, questions the double-digit Tennessee line over Houston, and has some very bad news for Oakland fans. Plus, our first official rankings including adjustments for opponent quality, and strength of schedule numbers.

Week 4 Team Efficiency Ratings

With the top two teams on bye, no movement on top of the chart, but there's plenty below. Carolina's performance begins to match their record, and so does Jacksonville's. And it's a happy day in St. Louis when Arizona comes to town. Aaron explains it all for the math-phobic, and gives a list of this year's top five QB games so far. Payton vs. New Orleans isn't number one?

How Many Points is a Turnover Worth?

How many points should the offense expect to score, depending on their field position? The answers within, including discussion of The Most Important Thing We've Learned So Far (TM) and the dreaded question of "field goal or go for it?" Plus, graphs galore. Don't miss the Happy Turnover Smile-Time Hour!

4 comments, Last at 08 Nov 2011, 2:09pm by bravehoptoad

Press Check: Second Down Rushes After First Down Incompletes

In today's Tuesday Morning Quarterback column on, Gregg Easterbrook introduces the Immutable Law of "Clang on First Bars Run on Second." Is he right? A look at the 2002 data says it ain't necessarily so.

Week 3 Team Efficiency Ratings

Tampa Bay narrowly edges out Seattle for #1 as Aaron introduces a slightly reworked and more accurate VOA formula. Plus, what's the deal with Jacksonville?

Press Check: 100-Yard Rushers and Wins

Two NFL writers say that Week 2 proved that rushing is the key to victory. We say that one week does not a season make.