Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

Falling Short of the Stick

How angry do you get when the coach of your favorite team calls an 8-yard pass on 3rd-and-9? Ever wonder how often your team does that? We've actually found a stat where Arizona is the best team in the NFL...

In Focus: AFC South

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Does Eddie George really get the tough yards when it counts? Why should teams save their best defensive plays to show Payton Manning after halftime?

In Focus: NFC West

All four NFC West teams have the same problem, one they share with a lot of other teams. Why do so many offenses rush more in one direction even though they gain far more yards per carry in the other direction? Do coaches just have no idea about team strengths? Plus, more notes on what our new stats say about the Cards, Rams, Niners, and Seahawks.

In Focus: NFC South

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. How screwed are the Falcons by Michael Vick's injury? How amazing is the Bucs defense, and what is their secret weakness?

In Focus: AFC West

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Which side of the great Denver o-line is best? Which AFC West offense specializes in plays up the middle, and which AFC West offense avoids the middle?

Quarterbacks and Favorite Receivers

Some teams showed completely different pass offenses with two different quarterbacks in 2002. If one of those quarterbacks is now out of the picture, what does that mean for those teams and their offensive efficiency... not to mention your fantasy draft? (No, Vick is not included, since the only WR that had a different value with Doug Johnson was Shawn Jefferson, no longer in Atlanta.)

In Focus: NFC East

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Is Jeremy Shockey really an average TE? Are NFC East QBs headed for trouble this year? What makes Philly's rush D so good?

Pythagoras Grades the Coaches

Which coaches win the close ones? We rank the last 20 years of coaches based on the ability to win more games than expected based on point differential. The top coaches have something unexpected in common... and the coach at the bottom is even more surprising.

3 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2007, 2:45am by Len

Do 2003 Schedule Changes Affect Fantasy Football Value?

Which players face easier or harder fantasy schedules this year? Do schedule changes year to year affect fantasy value more than real value, or vice versa?

Pythagoras on the Gridiron

In baseball, the Pythgorean Theorem says runs scored and allowed can predict a team's record. Does it work for football too? You bet, and it says some interesting things about teams that don't match their predictions. Pay attention, Chiefs fans.