Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

Off The Charts Podcast: October 4
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Off The Charts Podcast: October 4

This week's Off The Charts podcast goes into the charting on how Patrick Mahomes' role in the Kansas City Chiefs offense differs from what Alex Smith was doing last year, plus previews of the most important games of the week: Bengals-Dolphins, Vikings-Eagles, Saints-Redskins, and Falcons-Steelers. (Click for audio link.)

4 comments, Last at 02 Nov 2018, 4:01am by jasdeep0905
ESPN: Playoff Odds After Week 4
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ESPN: Playoff Odds After Week 4

Here's a closer look at the FO playoff odds on ESPN+, with notes on how they've shifted and why certain teams have defied expectations. Included: How the Rams are running away with things, just what 3-1 and an easy schedule can do for teams such as Miami and Chicago, and why Houston is the 1-3 team most likely to climb back into the playoff race.

ESPN Upset Watch: Cardinals-49ers
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ESPN Upset Watch: Cardinals-49ers

This week's ESPN Upset Watch looks at how the Cardinals can get their first win against San Francisco. Josh Rosen needs to play well, look left, and use David Johnson in the passing game. Plus, Cover Watch has Washington in New Orleans.

1 comment, Last at 04 Oct 2018, 1:27pm by justanothersteve
Week 4 DVOA Ratings
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Week 4 DVOA Ratings

The Los Angeles Rams are still No. 1 in our DVOA ratings, dominating the league with one of the best offenses we've ever measured. Week 4 introduces opponent adjustments into DVOA, so we look at how schedules have impacted team and player performance so far. Learn why Eli Manning had a very different September than Saquon Barkley.

50 comments, Last at 06 Oct 2018, 11:14pm by usernaim250
ESPN: Are Dolphins For Real?
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ESPN: Are Dolphins For Real?

Today's ESPN feature column looks at the Miami Dolphins. What's going right, and how has that led them to rank No. 2 in DVOA through three weeks? What parts of their performance are sustainable, and what parts are not?

2 comments, Last at 01 Oct 2018, 4:07am by RobotBoy
Off The Charts Podcast: September 27

Off The Charts Podcast: September 27

This week's Off The Charts podcast goes deep into the charting on Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Jameis Winston, plus extensive previews of the most important games of the week: Steelers-Ravens, Bucs-Bears, and Dolphins-Patriots. (Click for audio link)

ESPN Upset Watch: Bengals-Falcons
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ESPN Upset Watch: Bengals-Falcons

This week's ESPN+ Upset Watch looks at how the Cincinnati Bengals can go into Atlanta and take down the Falcons. It probably involves using a lot of Giovani Bernard against the injured parts of the Falcons defense. Plus, in Cover Watch, can Miami continue to play better than New England?

1 comment, Last at 27 Sep 2018, 1:34pm by DrunkenOne
Week 3 DVOA Ratings
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Week 3 DVOA Ratings

The Los Angeles Rams are still on top of our DVOA ratings, followed by the other two undefeated teams, Miami and Kansas City. We look closer at how the Chiefs rank among the best offensive starts ever, and just how much a two-game lead means for Miami in the playoff odds.

54 comments, Last at 28 Sep 2018, 1:35pm by Aaron Schatz
How Much Each QB Matters to the Spread

How Much Each QB Matters to the Spread

Interesting article where ESPN Chalk asked the Westgate how much each starting quarterback would be worth to the line if he were injured. Aaron Rodgers is the most, at 10 points. Some of the interesting results: I'm surprised how low the Saints are here, as much as I love Teddy Bridgewater. I just figure Drew Brees is worth more than just 2 points. I also wonder what they would have said about the difference between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston if they had been asked two weeks ago instead of right now.

1 comment, Last at 22 Sep 2018, 7:11am by Raiderfan
Off The Charts Podcast: September 20

Off The Charts Podcast: September 20

Thursday afternoon means a brand-new edition of the Off The Charts podcast, with Matt Manocherian of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders. This week we discuss the best routes to run against Cover-3, review Week 2, and preview the most important games of Week 3 including Atlanta-New Orleans, Tennessee-Jacksonville, and Green Bay-Washington.