Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

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ESPN Upset Watch: Redskins-Packers
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ESPN Upset Watch: Redskins-Packers

One of the little secrets of the NFL the last couple years: Washington is not a bad team, just a mediocre one. And with better red zone performance, mediocrity might be enough to upset the Green Bay Packers at home.

2 comments, Last at 20 Sep 2018, 2:58pm by Aaron Schatz
Week 2 DVOA Ratings
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Week 2 DVOA Ratings

The Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs are 1-2 in the latest DVOA ratings, but the most surprising unit early in the season is the Miami Dolphins defense.

58 comments, Last at 20 Sep 2018, 4:03pm by alan frankel
Off The Charts Podcast: September 13
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Off The Charts Podcast: September 13

Thursday afternoon means a brand-new edition of the Off The Charts podcast. This week we discuss why we hate wide receiver screens on third-and-long, how much we can learn from the Jets' Week 1 dominance, and how important the Chiefs win over the Chargers was. Plus previews of Vikings-Packers, Chiefs-Steelers, and Patriots-Jaguars. (Click for audio link.)

ESPN Upset Watch: Seahawks-Bears
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ESPN Upset Watch: Seahawks-Bears

New on ESPN+, a look at what the Seahawks have to do to upset the Bears on Monday night. Russell Wilson is going to get pressured; the good news is that he's one of the league's best quarterbacks under pressure, with surprising consistency. Plus, Cover Watch: Detroit at San Francisco.

3 comments, Last at 14 Sep 2018, 12:00pm by Cythammer
Week 1 DVOA Ratings
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Week 1 DVOA Ratings

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets! Yes, Gang Green has a rare spot on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings after a huge Week 1 win over Detroit. You should also learn to spell "Ravens," because Baltimore is right behind them.

72 comments, Last at 14 Sep 2018, 10:00pm by morgzord
Week 1 Open Game Discussion
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Week 1 Open Game Discussion

Here is this week's Football Outsiders open game discussion thread, the place to discuss all the games all weekend long, starting with the kickoff contest Thursday night between Atlanta and Philadelphia and continuing through the Monday Night Football doubleheader, Jets at Lions and Rams at Raiders.

149 comments, Last at 13 Sep 2018, 3:01pm by PTORaven
SITE NEWS: Football Outsiders Returns to Madden NFL 19

SITE NEWS: Football Outsiders Returns to Madden NFL 19

It's time to share the details on our involvement with Madden NFL 19 Ultimate Team and Madden NFL Overdrive for mobile devices during this upcoming season. (Click to read more.)

Move Over RPOs, Here Come Bunches

Move Over RPOs, Here Come Bunches

Great article by Matthew Coller on the ESPN 1500 website in Minnesota, looking at what strategies successful offenses around the league are likely to copy this year. Sitting down with John DeFelippo, the new Vikings offensive coordinator, he found less of a concentration on RPOs and more on bunch formations to confuse the defense. The Rams used more bunch formations than anyone else last year, and had tons of success out of them.

ESPN Upset Watch: Giants-Jaguars
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ESPN Upset Watch: Giants-Jaguars

Here's the return of a feature we did for ESPN a few years ago, the weekly Upset Watch. Each week we'll highlight a possible upset among games with a line of at least three points, detailing how and why it could happen. This week, more on our Jacksonville projection and what better health could mean for the New York Giants offense. Plus, a weekly cover watch, with a big line we think could be a cover. Or in this week's case, a small line, Dallas at Carolina.

2018 DVOA Projections
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2018 DVOA Projections

Updated preseason DVOA projections are here. It's a very unbalanced NFL, with seven of our top nine teams coming from the NFC. Pittsburgh and New England are the two AFC holdouts, and they're on top of our ratings and our Super Bowl odds, though our Super Bowl favorite has flipped since we published Football Outsiders Almanac 2018.

50 comments, Last at 11 Sep 2018, 4:36pm by panthersnbraves