Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

ESPN: Ranking the NFL's Hardest Schedules 1-32
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

ESPN: Ranking the NFL's Hardest Schedules 1-32

In an annual piece for ESPN+ (formerly ESPN Insider), I take a look at all 32 NFL schedules, ranked from hardest to easiest. We look at weird quirks in the schedule and what each team's hardest stretch is, based on preseason projections.

1 comment, Last at 05 Sep 2018, 12:55pm by morganja
Off The Charts Podcast: September 4

Off The Charts Podcast: September 4

The Off The Charts podcast is back for 2018! This week, Matt Manocherian and Aaron Schatz talk about some of this year's research into running the football in the NFL. Then we preview three games from Week 1: Atlanta at Philadelphia, Pittsburgh at Cleveland, and Kansas City at the Los Angeles Chargers. (Click for audio link.)

1 comment, Last at 05 Nov 2018, 2:16am by kenwayboss
Grand Schemes

Grand Schemes

Here's a cool little season preview feature from the Washington Post, breaking down one important play for each NFL offense with fun little moving diagrams. Almost everyone gets a pass play, but Jacksonville of course gets a run play.

Khalil Mack Traded to Bears
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Khalil Mack Traded to Bears

The biggest trade of the year is on, according to multiple reports this morning. Oakland is trading edge rusher Khalil Mack to Chicago for a package that should include two first-round picks plus other compensation. Mack would then likely agree to a new long-term contract with Chicago.

47 comments, Last at 10 Sep 2018, 3:55pm by Steve in WI
Aaron Donald: Six-Year, $135 Million Extension

Aaron Donald: Six-Year, $135 Million Extension

This big-money signings continue, as the Rams hand Aaron Donald a new contract with six years and $135 million. Added on to 2017, that makes seven years and $141 million. The deal includes $87 million guaranteed. I believe this leaves Le'Veon Bell, Earl Thomas, and Khalil Mack as holdouts.

3 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2018, 10:54am by jtr
Aaron Rodgers Gets 4-Year, $134 Million Extension

Aaron Rodgers Gets 4-Year, $134 Million Extension

The final domino to fall in this summer's quarterback payment extravaganza has fallen, as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have agreed to a four-year extension that takes his contract through 2023 when he'll be 40 years old. The early numbers say the new deal averages $33.5 million in new money over the four years, including a record $57.5 million signing bonus.

15 comments, Last at 04 Sep 2018, 6:18pm by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual
ESPN: Sneaky Strengths for All 32 NFL Teams
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

ESPN: Sneaky Strengths for All 32 NFL Teams

We went through the Football Outsiders stat databases to find one hidden split or metric where every NFL offense and defense was very good last year. Even Cleveland! Which of these will carry over and continue into 2018?

FOA 2018 Media: Deadspin

FOA 2018 Media: Deadspin

Still haven't bought your copy of Football Outsiders Almanac 2018? Do you need more convincing? If so, check out our annual feature on Deadspin, with a one-paragraph excerpt from each of the 32 NFL team chapters in FOA 2018.

ESPN: QB Hope Index
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

ESPN: QB Hope Index

It's the return of the QB Hope Index, looking at the odds that each passer from the last three drafts will develop into a long-term NFL starter. It takes into account performance so far, QBASE projection, age, depth charts, and even what college conference the quarterback emerged from.

3 comments, Last at 23 Aug 2018, 8:25pm by serutan
Player Tracking Data is Next Step in NFL's Analytics Revolution

Player Tracking Data is Next Step in NFL's Analytics Revolution

Seth Walder dips just a little bit into what teams are going to be able to accomplish with the player tracking data. There's going to be a lot of machine learning going on, and a few teams are going to get into this much faster and get a clear advantage on the other teams for a few years.

3 comments, Last at 27 Aug 2018, 9:28am by Aaron Brooks Good Twin