Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

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OFI: Can LSU Really Win SEC West?
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OFI: Can LSU Really Win SEC West?

Louisiana State got another win over an AP Top-25 team thanks to a last-second field goal over Auburn, but the predictive stats still don't really love the Tigers. Also, despite a great day for Ohio State, the Big Ten's slow start to the 2018 season continues.

OFI: Close Finishes Define Week 2
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OFI: Close Finishes Define Week 2

Week 2 looked just OK on paper, but delivered with an awesome Clemson-Texas A&M game as well as upsets by Arizona State, Colorado State, Eastern Michigan, and East Carolina. Oh, and Georgia probably locked up the SEC East in its big win over South Carolina.

1 comment, Last at 11 Sep 2018, 6:35pm by TimK
OFI: Big Ten East Underwhelms
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OFI: Big Ten East Underwhelms

Week 1 was a little more muted than normal, with Auburn-Washington and LSU-Miami both featuring plenty of field goals. The story of the week might be the Big Ten East's underwhelming start.

1 comment, Last at 03 Sep 2018, 9:19pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin
F/+ Projections vs. the Conventional Wisdom
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F/+ Projections vs. the Conventional Wisdom

Which teams' F/+ projections differ the most from the general fan and media preseason consensus? Here we take a look at three college football teams which are forecasted lower than the conventional wisdom would suggest, and two teams that might outperform expectations.

1 comment, Last at 24 Aug 2018, 10:18am by mlatanza
OFI: Freshmen Propel Alabama
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OFI: Freshmen Propel Alabama

Replacing starter Jalen Hurts, Alabama quarterback Tua Tagavailoa threw a 41-yard walk-off touchdown pass to fellow freshman DeVonta Smith on second-and-26 in overtime for yet another Alabama championship.

12 comments, Last at 10 Jan 2018, 2:27pm by Anger...rising
OFI: The Best Rose Bowl Ever?
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OFI: The Best Rose Bowl Ever?

The largest comeback in Rose Bowl history propels the Bulldogs to the national championship, while Alabama's dominating defense compensated for a mediocre offensive performance in the Sugar Bowl.

6 comments, Last at 05 Jan 2018, 12:10am by NYMike
OFI: Big Ten Champs Miss Playoff
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OFI: Big Ten Champs Miss Playoff

While Clemson, Georgia, and Oklahoma clinched conference championships and playoff berths, Alabama just sat back waited to hear the Selection Committee put them into the four-team field.

9 comments, Last at 05 Dec 2017, 5:09pm by Will
One Foot Inbounds: Top Teams Fall
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One Foot Inbounds: Top Teams Fall

The top two college football teams in the country, Alabama and Miami, each picked up their first loss of the season, again upsetting the playoff race.

12 comments, Last at 28 Nov 2017, 6:42pm by Will Allen
OFI: Calm Before Rivalry Week Storm
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OFI: Calm Before Rivalry Week Storm

It was a quiet week for almost everyone in college football, with Skylar Thompson leading Kansas State over Oklahoma State as the only major Power 5 upset.

6 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2017, 3:51pm by horn
OFI: Blowouts Shake Up Playoff Race, Again
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OFI: Blowouts Shake Up Playoff Race, Again

This week was full of big ranked matchups, but a few blowout wins opened the doors for even more possible playoff contenders.

1 comment, Last at 14 Nov 2017, 5:10pm by horn