Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Scott Kacsmar's blog

2017 Receiving Plus-Minus
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2017 Receiving Plus-Minus

Which receiver did Drew Brees raise to career highs this time? Does Mike Evans really help Jameis Winston that much? Which running back duo had a terrible case of butterfingers? How bad were the rookie seasons for Evan Engram and Zay Jones?

19 comments, Last at 20 Jun 2018, 8:04pm by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual
2017 Passing Plus-Minus
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2017 Passing Plus-Minus

Drew Brees continued his dominance in passing plus-minus, but was he as good as in his previous seasons? Also: big post-Jeff Fisher leaps for Jared Goff and Case Keenum, talent may have trumped coaching in San Francisco, and two No. 1 overall picks disappoint.

7 comments, Last at 14 Jun 2018, 5:42pm by DezCaughtTheBall
Snap-Weighted Age: 2017 NFL Rosters
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Snap-Weighted Age: 2017 NFL Rosters

The Rams and Jaguars finally turned their young talent into playoff berths in 2017. Cleveland looks to be taking over the mantle for "team of the future." Also: Buffalo's wild turnover and the youngest secondary in eight years.

6 comments, Last at 23 May 2018, 4:30pm by Will Allen
Four Downs: NFC North
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Four Downs: NFC North

While most of the teams in this division could use better blockers and/or receivers, the Bears remain in dire need of playmakers in the defensive backfield.

17 comments, Last at 11 May 2018, 10:38am by justanothersteve

FiveThirtyEight: Barkley Isn't the Hero Your Team Needs

At FiveThirtyEight, we looked at the conundrum of drafting Penn State running back Saquon Barkley in the top five, especially if you're the Browns or Giants. While workhorse backs have been romanticized for decades of NFL history, the league has shifted away from them in favor of more passing and a by-committee approach to the position. We also have not seen first-round backs outperform those taken in later rounds. The rushing DVOA since 2002 is the second lowest in the first round, and there's essentially no difference in yards per carry among the seven rounds. Running backs truly can be found anywhere, and Super Bowl-winning teams this century have also proven that.

24 comments, Last at 03 May 2018, 9:55pm by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual
2017 Adjusted Games Lost: By Unit
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2017 Adjusted Games Lost: By Unit

Our breakdown of injuries by unit finds one team that has been hit hard at wide receiver and linebacker multiple times in recent years. Also: the Rams were very healthy across the board, and one hyped unit disappointed greatly despite great health.

7 comments, Last at 14 Oct 2018, 11:46am by kool
2017 Adjusted Games Lost
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2017 Adjusted Games Lost

Two NFC teams were hit hardest by injuries last year. One already set the AGL record in 2016, while the other has a coach with the worst AGL since 2002. Also: the Rams' incredible bill of health in L.A., and Tampa Bay's questionable injury reporting.

7 comments, Last at 26 Mar 2018, 5:49am by killwer

Chiefs Trade Marcus Peters to Rams

Marcus Peters has been traded from Kansas City to the Los Angeles Rams for undisclosed draft picks.

19 comments, Last at 27 Feb 2018, 1:58pm by Steve in WI
Four Downs: NFC North
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Four Downs: NFC North

Who will be Minnesota's quarterback? Mitchell Trubisky is QB1 in Chicago, but who's catching the ball? Can the Lions ever find a running back again? Finally, the Packers could use an upgrade at edge rusher, but this may be the wrong draft to do so.

36 comments, Last at 03 Mar 2018, 5:04pm by LionInAZ
Failed Completions 2017
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Failed Completions 2017

2017 was indeed The Year of the Failed Completion. This is the stat where Joe Flacco stands out, but not in a good way. Also: a most conservative rookie, weird splits for Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, and more Jarvis Landry shortcomings.

19 comments, Last at 27 Feb 2018, 4:19pm by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual