Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Scott Kacsmar's blog

Clutch Encounters: Super Bowl LII
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Clutch Encounters: Super Bowl LII

There were air yards. There were rushing yards. There were QB receiving yards. There were more yards in Super Bowl LII than in any other game in NFL history. The 2017 season ends like it began: with New England's defense getting destroyed.

45 comments, Last at 08 Feb 2018, 3:09am by Jerry

NFL Honors and 2018 Hall of Fame Class Announced

The NFL unveils its latest award winners and the 2018 Pro Football Hall of Fame class.

38 comments, Last at 13 Feb 2018, 2:01am by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual

FiveThirtyEight: Sneaky Stats That Could Decide Super Bowl LII

At FiveThirtyEight, we looked at a few more stats to keep in mind for this Super Bowl, including New England's No. 1 ranking in weighted DVOA, its No. 31 ranking in defensive DVOA for the season, how Tom Brady has been dealing with pressure as he's gotten older, and how the game script has gotten so familiar in New England Super Bowls.

7 comments, Last at 05 Feb 2018, 5:06pm by ChrisS

FiveThirtyEight: The Experience Required to Beat the Patriots

A look at one of the more unique splits in NFL history: the Patriots are 15-0 in the playoffs against new opponents, but 12-9 in rematches in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era.

3 comments, Last at 29 Jan 2018, 11:54am by FireSnake
Clutch Encounters: AFC Championship Game
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Clutch Encounters: AFC Championship Game

Jacksonville tried to steal the show, but the Patriots reminded us that quarterbacks are still the main attraction in the NFL. You can't hide them, but you have to protect them late in games. The Patriots did so again to pull off another fourth-quarter comeback.

92 comments, Last at 26 Jan 2018, 10:20am by Anon Ymous

FiveThirtyEight: Championship QBs Under Pressure

At FiveThirtyEight, I did a mini-preview of championship weekend by looking at how the quarterbacks fared under pressure this season, and how these defenses could be a problem for them. Case Keenum and Tom Brady led all quarterbacks in QBR under pressure this season, but things may not be as easy for Nick Foles and Blake Bortles.

NFC Championship Preview 2018
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

NFC Championship Preview 2018

Somebody has to Jeff Hostetler their way into Super Bowl LII. Will it be the Eagles, with a tenacious defense and home-field advantage? Or will it be the Vikings, who've gotten a better performance (and more of it) from backup-turned-MVP candidate Case Keenum?

24 comments, Last at 20 Jan 2018, 10:34pm by MC2
Clutch Encounters: Divisional Round
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Clutch Encounters: Divisional Round

Stefon Diggs saves the Vikings after one of the greatest touchdowns in NFL history. Also: Atlanta's horrific red zone sequence, and Pittsburgh's odd history of high-scoring playoff losses.

23 comments, Last at 18 Jan 2018, 8:03pm by t.d.
AFC Divisional Round Playoff Preview 2018
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

AFC Divisional Round Playoff Preview 2018

On Saturday night, Marcus Mariota and the Titans become the latest team to seek an upset in Foxborough. Sunday morning, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers look to avenge their worst loss of the season.

27 comments, Last at 14 Jan 2018, 1:56pm by JMM
ALEX: 2017 Season Review
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

ALEX: 2017 Season Review

A familiar face finishes on top, and again we find a star rookie at the bottom. Can Mitchell Trubisky undergo a Jared Goff transformation? Also: the best third-down defense of this era, and the unit that couldn't pressure anyone to force the ball short.

7 comments, Last at 12 Jan 2018, 12:52pm by MilkmanDanimal