The last time the Cleveland Browns won a regular season game, Myles Garrett was still playing at Texas A&M. Together they have a chance to win again, hosting the Jets on Thursday night. Use this thread to discuss that game and all the weekend's action, up to the Steelers-Buccaneers contest on Monday night.
We've all seen the Next Gen Stats as part of NFL broadcasts -- player speed, distance traveled, etc. -- but this story on NFL.com is the first time I've seen anything really useful done with the data. For each pass thrown in the NFL, they've calculated the likelihood of a completion based on six factors:
Air distance, the actual distance between the passer and receiver, both horizontally and vertically.
Target separation, the distance between the receiver and the nearest defender in coverage.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the best quarterback in the league this year, followed closely by Patrick Mahomes. We put their starts in historical perspective (spoiler: they're really good) and ask if there's any significance to that. Plus, the best and worst passers, runners, and receivers of Week 2.
48 comments, Last at 20 Sep 2018, 7:08pm by Steve in WI
Here is this week's Football Outsiders open game discussion thread, the place to discuss all the games all weekend long, starting with the kickoff contest Thursday night between Baltimore and Cincinnati and continuing through Monday Night Football when the Seahawks take on the Bears.
Well, did not see this coming. The Cleveland Browns have announced they will release Josh Gordon, the uber-talented, uber-troubled wide receiver. (UPDATE: Actually, they traded him to New England for a fifth-round pick.)
For a lot of Football Outsiders, this won't come as a big surprise, but NFL coaches tend to run way too often, even in long-yardage situations where passing would seem to be a much better strategy. Josh Hermsmeyer at FiveThirtyEight shows all the data and finds only one team that passed more than it ran on second-and-long: your reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
Which teams and players will surprise their fans this season, and which will disappoint? Who will win the Super Bowl, and who will pick first in the draft? The FO staff makes their predictions for 2018, which looks like a long season for the Buffalo Bills.