Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Vincent Verhei's blog

Odell Beckham Gets Paid

Odell Beckham Gets Paid

The New York Giants have signed wide receiver Odell Beckham to a five-year, $96 million contract extension. He is guaranteed $65 million, the most ever for a wide receiver, and will average more than $20 million over the next three years.

According to Kevin Patra of NFL.com, the only players in the league with more guaranteed money are Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins. The deal will average $19 million per year, second among non-quarterbacks behind Von Miller.

The Browns' Suckiness Defies Math And Reason

The Browns' Suckiness Defies Math And Reason

Neil Paine at FiveThirtyEight has put together a fun feature (well, it's fun if you're not from northeast Ohio) showing that entering their 20th season since returning to the NFL, the Cleveland Browns are basically right back where they started: an expansion-quality team.

2 comments, Last at 23 Aug 2018, 7:38am by jtr
2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Underrated
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2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Underrated

Our look at players going too low in fantasy drafts includes many holdovers from last year, including four-time all-underrated quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. What it it about these players that makes them so hard to predict? And how should you handle players who have been (or might be) suspended?

9 comments, Last at 23 Aug 2018, 6:29pm by LionInAZ
ESPN: Ranking the NFL's Most Likely Worst-to-First Teams
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ESPN: Ranking the NFL's Most Likely Worst-to-First Teams

The Philadelphia Eagles went from last place in the NFC East in 2016 to division champs (and, of course, Super Bowl winners) in 2017. Which last-place teams have the brightest outlook heading into 2018? The candidates aren't as strong as usual, but we like the odds for Deshaun Watson and the Texans.

7 comments, Last at 21 Aug 2018, 12:11am by herewegobrowniesherewego
2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated
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2018 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated

The players going too high in fantasy drafts this year generally have one thing in common: risk. Remember, everyone, that old players tend to decline; injured players don't always return to health; suspensions can be a red flag; and success in small sample sizes can be misleading.

15 comments, Last at 20 Aug 2018, 6:46pm by Eddo

Best/Worst Red Zone Pass Offenses Since 1986

The 2017 Philadelphia Eagles had one of the best red zone passing offenses we have ever measured, while the 2017 Browns had one of the worst. (Click to read more.)

5 comments, Last at 27 Jul 2018, 4:41pm by Mountain Time ---- formerly Ninjalectual

Two-Point Study at Riley-Kolste Football

Noah Riley, a student-athlete at Lewis & Clark College in Portland (and nephew of former Oregon State Beavers/Nebraska Cornhuskers/San Diego Chargers head coach Mike Riley) went back and charted every two-point conversion in the NFL in the last seven years to find out what works best (bootlegs, pick plays, and most runs) and what doesn't (fade routes). He broke things down in great detail by play design and route combination, and included video samples of each play type. It's phenomenally comprehensive stuff that is both enlightening and educational.

15 comments, Last at 11 Jul 2018, 2:14pm by Will Allen

Kam Chancellor Announces Retirement

In unsurprising news, Seattle Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor has announced his retirement due to a neck injury suffered last year against Arizona.

48 comments, Last at 22 Jul 2018, 9:00am by bachslunch

Jameis Winston Suspended for Three Games

It's almost old news at this point, but it just became official today: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has been suspended for the first three games of the 2018 season.

55 comments, Last at 23 Jul 2018, 1:40pm by IAmAFootballFan
2017 Defeats
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2017 Defeats

The Cardinals had a winning record with backup quarterbacks last year thanks in large part to their high-profile edge rusher who terrorized opposing offenses. We look at defeat leaders for every position, as well as overall leaders over the past few seasons.

27 comments, Last at 20 Jun 2018, 9:08pm by TomC