Founder of Football Outsiders
Creator of DVOA and DYAR
Compared to Bill James by The New York Times Magazine, and attributed as a “founding father of football analytics” by The Ringer, AARON SCHATZis the creator and Editor-in-Chief of Football Outsiders. Aaron is also the creator of most of the original statistical methods (DVOA, DYAR) used in NFL analysis on this website, as well as Lead Writer, Editor, and Statistician on the book series Football Outsiders Almanac (published since 2009). He also writes for ESPN.com and ESPN+, and appears weekly during the NFL season on the Off The Charts podcast. During the 2011 season, he was a regular panelist on the ESPN2 show Numbers Never Lie. Before Football Outsiders, Aaron spent five years as a radio host at WBRU Providence and WKRO Daytona Beach, and three years as the writer and producer of the Lycos 50, the Internet's foremost authority on the people, places, and things that are searched online. He has written on sports, politics, and taxes for a number of publications including The New Republic, The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Slate, The American Prospect, and the Boston Phoenix. Aaron resides in Worcester, Massachusetts and yes, is a New England Patriots fan.
This week: Seven playoff teams per conference? What do we think about that? Then we take on next year's most likely up-and-coming playoff contenders according to Football Outsiders readers. Who's in the Super Bowl conversation for next year? Arizona? Atlanta? How about Tampa Bay?
How does our analysis of running games and passing games change when we consider scrambles as pass plays rather than running plays? Come see where Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes add even more value to their offenses, and see why some running games (Seattle, Kansas City) aren't as good as they look at first glance.
38 comments, Last at 18 Feb 2020, 04:27am by Vincent Verhei
Points for creativity, as a fan named Anthony Reinhard has built himself an XFL play-by-play scraper and will be doing weekly ELO ratings and playoff odds projections for the XFL. If you're watching the latest attempt at a spring minor league, go give his website some views.
2 comments, Last at 11 Feb 2020, 07:23pm by Sixknots
This week, the Off The Charts podcast reviews Super Bowl LIV: the good plays and the bad, the good decisions and the bad, the loud Kansas City fans and... well, the loud Kansas City fans. (Click for audio link.)
3 comments, Last at 09 Feb 2020, 08:30pm by theoutlawtorn
The team with the higher DVOA lost Super Bowl LIV. Everything turned dramatically in the final 12 minutes. The worst receiver of the week also had awesome rushing numbers. Opponent adjustments for quarterbacks were high. Our advanced stats for Super Bowl LIV are a little strange.
60 comments, Last at 10 Feb 2020, 01:49pm by theslothook
Offense is generally more predictive than defense, and passing is stronger than rushing. That points to Kansas City as the favorite in Super Bowl LIV. But the San Francisco offense won't go quietly and has some major advantages on the other side of this matchup.
56 comments, Last at 02 Feb 2020, 06:40pm by Lost Ti-Cats Fan
It's time for our Super Bowl preview on the Off The Charts Podcast. We hit some prop bets, we get both sides of the ball, we even hit on special teams. Lots of stats from both Football Outsiders and Sports Info Solutions. (Click for audio link.)