Aaron Schatz

Fun article from Jon Bois at SB Nation. Did you know that more points doesn't always mean a better chance to win? In the history of the NFL, it turns out the graph of points scored and how often teams won that particular game is far from a straight line.

A new feature: our video pick of the week, giving you a preview of the picks we do each week at FO+.

New ESPN+ article today ranks the top 10 rookie wide receiver seasons since 1985 by DYAR. Justin Jefferson is on pace to finish with the top season; who else makes our top 10? I snuck in rushing value too so that I could write about Ernest Givins and his 9 carries for 148 yards.

This week's Off The Charts podcast is all Kansas City Chiefs, with ESPN's NFL Nation Chiefs reporter Adam Teicher. Should we be worried about the run defense, or the fact that the Chiefs let opponents hang around in the fourth quarter? And who's more important to the Chiefs' success: Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce? (Click for audio link.)

New Orleans and Pittsburgh are still 1-2, and Kansas City's stellar passing game still can't get them to the top of our DVOA ratings. But it's one of the best we've ever measured.

Fuller claims he is being suspended for mistakenly taking banned prescription medication. This suspension is particularly notable because as of this weekend, Fuller moved Justin Jefferson and into first place in wide receiver DYAR. (Tyreek Hill also passed Jefferson and is now second.)

The Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers came keeps moving due to COVID concerns. It's now been moved to Tuesday night. The Steelers then have a short week before their next game, which they will not be happy about.

It's the Off The Charts Thanksgiving Special! This week's previews include Ravens-Steelers, Chiefs-Bucs, Packers-Bears, and Titans-Colts. (Click for audio link.)

The switch to Taysom Hill can't stop the Saints from dominating this year's DVOA ratings. Plus, Las Vegas is the team most hurt this year by a combination of schedule and fumble luck. Which teams rise and fall after DVOA adjustments?

The Hall of Fame has announced its 25 semifinalists for the Class of 2021. First-time eligible players include Peyton Manning, Charles Woodson, and Calvin Johnson. Rodney Harrison, a sentimental favorite of mine, is a semifinalist for the first time.