Founder of Football Outsiders
Creator of DVOA and DYAR
Compared to Bill James by The New York Times Magazine, and attributed as a “founding father of football analytics” by The Ringer, AARON SCHATZis the creator and Editor-in-Chief of Football Outsiders. Aaron is also the creator of most of the original statistical methods (DVOA, DYAR) used in NFL analysis on this website, as well as Lead Writer, Editor, and Statistician on the book series Football Outsiders Almanac (published since 2009). He also writes for ESPN.com and ESPN+, and appears weekly during the NFL season on the Off The Charts podcast. During the 2011 season, he was a regular panelist on the ESPN2 show Numbers Never Lie. Before Football Outsiders, Aaron spent five years as a radio host at WBRU Providence and WKRO Daytona Beach, and three years as the writer and producer of the Lycos 50, the Internet's foremost authority on the people, places, and things that are searched online. He has written on sports, politics, and taxes for a number of publications including The New Republic, The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Slate, The American Prospect, and the Boston Phoenix. Aaron resides in Worcester, Massachusetts and yes, is a New England Patriots fan.
Great post here by Michael Lopez, who does advanced stats for the NFL, looking at the NGS expected rush yards metric. Can we show that there actually is a difference between different running backs? The answer seems to be yes. First of all, a high performance in expected rush yards over average does a good job of predicting future workload: coaches do seem to want to give the ball to backs who perform better even after accounting for scheme and blocking. Second, random selections of carries still show correlation in expected rush yards over average.
16 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2020, 11:15pm by ImNewAroundTheseParts
New Orleans remains No. 1 thanks in part to an excellent run defense, but how good is it compared to other run defenses of the last 20 years? Plus, Pittsburgh (barely) becomes our new Super Bowl favorite and Las Vegas makes a big move up the DVOA ranks.
The "Golden Boy" of the Green Bay Packers has died at the age of 84. Paul Hornung starred originally at Notre Dame in the 1950s and won the Heisman Trophy, the only player to ever win for a losing team. Hornung then went No.
New Orleans plays one of the greatest single games in DVOA history, jumping up six spots to reign as our new No. 1 team. Plus, a look at how some teams have changed from the first few weeks of the season to the last few weeks.
Of course, the most important game of the week is New Orleans at Tampa Bay on Sunday night, but this week's podcast also talks about Baltimore-Indianapolis, Las Vegas-Los Angeles Chargers, and Arizona-Miami. (Click for audio link.)
1 comment, Last at 06 Nov 2020, 05:22pm by DIVISION
This week goes deep into the best games of Week 8, from big rivalries like Pittsburgh-Baltimore and San Francisco-Seattle to important games for making the playoffs like Chicago-New Orleans and Las Vegas-Cleveland. Plus, a scouting report on Minnesota WR Rashod Bateman.
Let's go inside the DVOA stats for the No. 1 team of 2020, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Where things are distinctly better than last year, not just at the quarterback position but also in improvement by the running game and cornerback Carlton Davis.