Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

ESPN Upset Watch: Chargers-Steelers
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ESPN Upset Watch: Chargers-Steelers

This week's Upset Watch looks at the Los Angeles Chargers going on the road to Pittsburgh. The Chargers will need to solve their weakness against deep passes, and they'll want to spread things out against a Steelers defense that isn't as strong against shotgun spread formations. Cover Watch looks at the Jets at the Titans, two very inconsistent teams.

3 comments, Last at 30 Nov 2018, 12:32pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin
Week 12 DVOA Ratings
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Week 12 DVOA Ratings

This week, we look at offenses and defenses that have improved over the last few weeks, including Minnesota and the No. 1 defense in the league since Week 6. Plus, what would our Super Bowl odds look like if DVOA didn't have Kansas City rated so much better than other advanced metrics?

95 comments, Last at 03 Dec 2018, 9:39pm by PTORaven
Week 11 DVOA Ratings
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Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Close loss or not, DVOA is ready to ride or die with the Kansas City Chiefs. In fact, Chiefs-Rams was one of a number of games this week where the losing team ended up with a higher rating than the winning team.

42 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2018, 7:08pm by t.d.
Off The Charts Podcast: November 14
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Off The Charts Podcast: November 14

A special early Off The Charts podcast looks asks how much of a win the Le'Veon Bell situation has been for "running backs don't matter" Twitter. Then previews of this week's great prime-time games: Packers at Seahawks, Vikings at Bears, and Chiefs at Rams. (Click for audio link.)

ESPN: Playoff Bets to Make Right Now
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ESPN: Playoff Bets to Make Right Now

A new column for ESPN+ Chalk with a review of teams where that Football Outsiders odds show value compared to consensus Las Vegas odds. Teams highlighted include Washington, Kansas City, and Chicago.

Week 10 DVOA Ratings
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Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Big wins mean big movement in our DVOA ratings, with Pittsburgh jumping up from 11th to fifth and big moves for Green Bay, Tennessee, and Buffalo as well. We also explore the history of the DVOA Bowl as No. 1 prepares to meet No. 2, and jump into the workings of DVOA to try to figure out why New Orleans doesn't rank higher in our metric.

58 comments, Last at 16 Nov 2018, 1:34am by MC2
Top Potential NFL Head Coach Candidates
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Top Potential NFL Head Coach Candidates

A good conversation starter here, as Trevor Sikkema puts together a list of possible head coaching candidates for next year. Obviously, the hot young offensive mind everyone in the NFL wants is Lincoln Riley of Oklahoma, but there's also Vikings OC John DeFilippo and Titans OC Matt LaFleur. There are some defensive minds on here, and some older retreads who may get new consideration. Norv Turner again? I suppose it's possible. Who's your favorite head coach candidate?

12 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2018, 2:18pm by LionInAZ
Off The Charts Podcast: November 8
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Off The Charts Podcast: November 8

Special guest Mike Tanier joins Matt Manocherian and Aaron Schatz on this week's Off The Charts Podcast to talk about the current state of the Philadelphia Eagles; whether signing Dez Bryant will work for the New Orleans Saints; and whether the Miami Dolphins are now the blandest team in the National Football League. Plus, a big debate about how to value running backs. How much does Todd Gurley's rushing mean to his value if there's research showing that receiving is so much more important than rushing? And how much do we need to value Gurley's volume as opposed to just analyzing players with rate stats? (Click for audio link.)

The Match Game: How NFL Defenses Lost Their Way

The Match Game: How NFL Defenses Lost Their Way

Great, really must-read series here from our old friend Doug Farrar about how NFL defensive schemes have fallen so far behind NFL offensive schemes, and just what coaches might be able to do about it. Part I breaks down how so many passive NFL coverages are just not prepared for the schematic complexity of modern offenses.

9 comments, Last at 15 Dec 2018, 4:48am by atworkforu
ESPN: Playoff Odds After Week 9
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ESPN: Playoff Odds After Week 9

On ESPN+, we look at our updated playoff odds for all 32 teams, with breakdowns including: why our numbers love the Chiefs so much, where Cincinnati may decline in the second half of the season, and why Washington's offensive line injuries may not stop them from winning the NFC East.