Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

ESPN Upset Watch: Giants-49ers
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

ESPN Upset Watch: Giants-49ers

It's not a week of close games, as every line in the NFL this week is three points or more. Our Upset Watch pick looks at Monday Night Football, where expectations for Nick Mullens seem a bit too high based on just one game. Cover Watch analyzes Cincinnati hosting New Orleans.

Week 9 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Week 9 DVOA Ratings

The Chiefs hit the DVOA sweet spot against Cleveland on Sunday, shooting their ratings up so they now rank among the best teams ever in both offensive and total team DVOA after nine weeks. The Patriots, Falcons, and 49ers also rise this week.

58 comments, Last at 14 Nov 2018, 3:38pm by Richie
Off The Charts Podcast: November 1
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Off The Charts Podcast: November 1

This week on the Off The Charts podcast: Discussion of the trade deadline and the Cleveland Browns coaching change; giving out some midseason awards to players such as Dee Ford, Adam Thielen, and Marlon Mack; previews of the Rams at Saints, Packers at Patriots, and Steelers at Ravens.

Paul Zimmerman, Dr. Z, Dead at 86

Paul Zimmerman, Dr. Z, Dead at 86

The legendary football writer Paul Zimmerman, Dr. Z, died this afternoon at the age of 86. Dr. Z was the first national writer to really bring play-by-play breakdown to the masses. He was breaking down games when there was no Internet, no coach's film available to the public, just your TV and a VCR. His Thinking Man's Guide to Pro Football is a seminal work that helps explain the game and is valuable even now, over 30 years later.

17 comments, Last at 18 Nov 2018, 9:48am by LondonMonarch
ESPN Upset Watch: Steelers-Ravens
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

ESPN Upset Watch: Steelers-Ravens

This week's ESPN Upset Watch looks at the close Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry, where the road team is 11-8 over the last 19 games. Tight ends could be key for both teams in this matchup, while the running game is likely to be bottled up on both sides. Cover Watch analyzes Green Bay at New England.

2 comments, Last at 03 Nov 2018, 7:21pm by jonnyblazin
Week 8 DVOA Ratings
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Week 8 DVOA Ratings

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams still are on top of our DVOA ratings, but this week the Chiefs pass the Rams as our new Super Bowl favorite. The reasons? Schedule strength, fumble recovery luck, and the presence of the best first-year starting quarterback in NFL history.

98 comments, Last at 03 Nov 2018, 3:50pm by mehllageman56
NFL Trade Deadline Thread
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

NFL Trade Deadline Thread

Hey, it's the NFL trade deadline today. And some big trades are getting made. We'll catalog them here and let the readers discuss.

68 comments, Last at 31 Oct 2018, 6:47pm by Bright Blue Shorts
Off The Charts Podcast: October 25
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

Off The Charts Podcast: October 25

This week's Off The Charts podcast discusses the Giants' decision to go for 2 down 8, and their decision to start liquidating the roster. Does a midseason dump mean it's time to move on from Eli Manning? Plus, previews of Seahawks-Lions, Vikings-Saints, and Chiefs-Broncos. (Click for audio link.)

1 comment, Last at 31 Oct 2018, 10:45am by nzfir
ESPN Upset Watch: Seahawks-Lions
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

ESPN Upset Watch: Seahawks-Lions

In this week's Upset Watch: Pass pressure will be key to Seattle's chances against Detroit. You can also expect to see a lot of rushing yardage, from both sides. Cover Watch looks at Miami, where Brock Osweiler has not been the problem.

1 comment, Last at 27 Oct 2018, 7:58pm by LionInAZ
ESPN: Worst Offense Ever?
Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images

ESPN: Worst Offense Ever?

A look at the 2018 Buffalo Bills and the ten worst offenses ever by DVOA. The Bills are on pace to pass them all.