Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

Off The Charts Podcast: January 3
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Off The Charts Podcast: January 3

The Off The Charts football podcast reviews the coaching carousel and previews this weekend's four wild-card games. Learn what the Seahawks' zone means for Dak Prescott, why Lamar Jackson's first game against the Chargers stands out, and how Ryan Griffin and the Houston tight ends could play a huge role on Saturday. (Click for audio link.)

1 comment, Last at 08 Jan 2019, 9:45am by Zlife
SITE NEWS: 2019 Playoff Fantasy Challenge

SITE NEWS: 2019 Playoff Fantasy Challenge

It's time for another game from Football Outsiders! Pick the best fantasy team you can using one player -- but only one player -- from each of the 12 playoff teams. The winner gets a free copy of the 2019 KUBIAK fantasy football projections. Click for rules and to enter.

FO Madden Stars for December 2018

FO Madden Stars for December 2018

Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 19 on a monthly basis. Today, we get to announce the Football Outsiders December players for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles. (Click to read more.)

Final 2018 DVOA Ratings
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Final 2018 DVOA Ratings

The Kansas City Chiefs finish the year on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and rank among the best offenses we've ever tracked. On the flip side are the Arizona Cardinals, in distant last place as one of the worst offenses we've ever tracked. But there are also plenty of interesting stories in between.

48 comments, Last at 04 Jan 2019, 4:41pm by Will Allen
Off The Charts Podcast: December 26
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Off The Charts Podcast: December 26

This week on the Off The Charts football podcast, discuss Justin Herbert's decision not to enter the NFL and ask the question "Could Nick Foles really be better than Carson Wentz?" Then previews of three important Week 17 games: Indianapolis at Tennessee, Chicago at Minnesota, and Cleveland at Baltimore. (Click for audio link.)

Week 16 DVOA Ratings
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Week 16 DVOA Ratings

Kansas City and New Orleans are now neck-and-neck in weighted DVOA, with the Saints as the hottest team in football over the last six weeks. A look at DVOA just since Week 11 shows which other teams are red hot right now, including Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Cleveland.

35 comments, Last at 30 Dec 2018, 12:14pm by CharlieH
Off The Charts Podcast: December 20
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Off The Charts Podcast: December 20

This week on the Off The Charts football podcast, we look at the Patriots without Josh Gordon and review their loss to Pittsburgh, then we look forward to the biggest games of this weekend, starting with a pair of Saturday night contests: Washington at Tennessee and Baltimore at the Los Angeles Chargers. (Click for audio link.)

2 comments, Last at 21 Dec 2018, 2:39pm by Aaron Schatz
ESPN: Why Tom Brady's Early-Season Slump Was a Mirage
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ESPN: Why Tom Brady's Early-Season Slump Was a Mirage

Over on ESPN+, I take a look at Tom Brady's surprising numbers. He's been the best quarterback in the league since Week 12, which puts his season totals right in line with what he did in 2014 and 2015. Where was Brady having problems early in the year, and where is he still having issues?

2 comments, Last at 23 Dec 2018, 10:05pm by PatsFan
ESPN Upset Watch: Jaguars-Dolphins
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ESPN Upset Watch: Jaguars-Dolphins

This week's Upset Watch points out that the Jaguars are not as bad as their record, and their defense is still pretty good. That gives them a good shot to end Miami's slim playoff hopes on Sunday. Cover Watch looks at Josh Allen's improvement and the Patriots' troubles with scrambling quarterbacks.

Week 15 DVOA Ratings
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Week 15 DVOA Ratings

What happened to our historic season of offense? Defenses have been winning the day since the start of December, especially in New Orleans where the offense is struggling and the defense is surging. The Saints move up to No. 3 in DVOA and take over as the Super Bowl favorites in our playoff odds report.

83 comments, Last at 21 Dec 2018, 2:21pm by Richie