Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

Week 7 DVOA Ratings
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Week 7 DVOA Ratings

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams remain on top of the DVOA ratings, far ahead of the rest of the league. But below these top teams, there's a lot of movement up and down. What on earth are the Denver Broncos doing at No. 5? We explain. Plus: Buffalo is now the worst offense in DVOA history.

45 comments, Last at 30 Oct 2018, 11:53am by tkinsman9
Raiders Trade Amari Cooper to Cowboys

Raiders Trade Amari Cooper to Cowboys

Well, the Cowboys finally got the receiver they needed, but boy did they pay a lot for him. Dallas will send a first-round pick to Oakland for a year and a half of Amari Cooper. Cooper was a Pro Bowl wide receiver his first two years, but his numbers have fallen to 70 catches for 960 yards and eight touchdowns in the last season and a half (20 games). That's still pretty good, and he'll be the best receiver on the Cowboys, but he's getting out of a bad situation and into... another bad situation, at least as far as offensive scheme?

42 comments, Last at 10 Nov 2018, 12:28am by GwillyGecko
Browns Trade Carlos Hyde to Jaguars

Browns Trade Carlos Hyde to Jaguars

Well, that's one way to get more carries for Nick Chubb and his (very limited sample size) 10.8 yards per carry. Carlos Hyde is apparently going to Jacksonville for a fifth-round pick. This also would suggest Leonard Fournette's hamstring injury is more of a long-term problem and he's not coming back anytime soon.

1 comment, Last at 20 Oct 2018, 11:16am by Lebo
Cardinals Fire OC Mike McCoy

Cardinals Fire OC Mike McCoy

Could the days of constantly running David Johnson straight into a pile of defenders be over? The Cardinals fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy this morning, replacing him with Byron Leftwich. It's the second straight season that McCoy has been fired in the middle of a season; the Broncos fired him halfway through last year. Leftwich is a Bruce Arians disciple, so the hope here is that we'll get a more exciting Cardinals offense that a) uses Johnson smarter and b) throws downfield more often.

9 comments, Last at 20 Oct 2018, 9:53am by jtr
Off The Charts Podcast: October 18
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Off The Charts Podcast: October 18

We start this week's podcast by playing "Real or Fake" about the Chargers, Bears, Seahawks, Eagles, and Panthers. Then game previews of Week 7's most important games: Texans-Jaguars, Cowboys-Redskins, and Chiefs-Bengals. (Click for audio link.)

ESPN: Playoff Odds for Struggling NFC Contenders
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ESPN: Playoff Odds for Struggling NFC Contenders

Football Outsiders' preseason projections had eight of the top 12 teams coming out of the NFC. Yet six of those teams are now 3-2-1 or worse. What are their chances for rebounding and getting into the postseason? You may be surprised by the relative odds for Green Bay and Minnesota in particular.

ESPN Upset Watch: Jets-Vikings
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ESPN Upset Watch: Jets-Vikings

This week's ESPN Upset Watch looks at how the Jets can use their improved defense to take down the Minnesota Vikings at home. Cover Watch looks at the Giants and Falcons on Monday Night Football.

3 comments, Last at 21 Oct 2018, 12:11am by JoeyHarringtonReigns
Week 6 DVOA Ratings
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Week 6 DVOA Ratings

In close games, DVOA doesn't look at wins and losses, which is how the Chiefs can take over the No. 1 spot from the Rams despite a close loss. The secret: strength of schedule and special teams. Plus, more of a look at the incredibly bad Buffalo offense and the surprisingly good Buffalo defense.

58 comments, Last at 23 Oct 2018, 7:21pm by Richie
ESPN Upset Watch: Chiefs-Patriots
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ESPN Upset Watch: Chiefs-Patriots

This week's ESPN+ Upset Watch looks at how the Chiefs can beat the Patriots: Patrick Mahomes needs to perform under pressure and the Chiefs have to figure out how to improve their run defense. Cover Watch looks at Arizona at Minnesota.

26 comments, Last at 15 Oct 2018, 11:08am by dryheat
Off The Charts Podcast: October 11
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Off The Charts Podcast: October 11

Among the subjects discussed on this week's Off The Charts podcast: What is the real difference between James Conner and Le'Veon Bell in the Steelers offense? Are the Atlanta Falcons cooked? Why have so many NFC teams underwhelmed this year? Plus, previews of the Chiefs-Patriots, Ravens-Titans, and Bengals-Steelers games for Week 6.

1 comment, Last at 12 Oct 2018, 1:05pm by DirtyGrizz