Aaron Schatz's blog

Surprise! This year, we're keeping the Off The Charts podcast going for the offseason. Today's podcast looks back at Super Bowl LIII with some numbers and some discussion of the Patriots' defensive game plan. Future podcasts this offseason will look at free agency and the draft. (Click for audio link.)

Here's a good primer from the AP on the rule changes in the new Alliance of American Football which starts this coming weekend. Kickoffs are gone, but there's an opportunity to "onside kick" by converting fourth-and-12 from the 28. However, you're only allowed to try this if you are down 17 points, or in the final five minutes of the game. There's also a "SkyJudge" official whose job is to monitor the broadcast and correct egregious errors made by the officials on the field.

The Patriots have one of their best Super Bowl performances by DVOA, and one of the top defensive Super Bowls we've tracked. As you can imagine, all that defense also means the Quick Reads totals are pretty negative, unless you happened to win Super Bowl MVP.

Let's preview the Super Bowl! Tons of FO and SIS stats here. Find out the connection between Cooper Kupp and Jared Goff's performance against man coverage. Learn about what personnel groupings shine for each offense. Plus we discuss (and disagree on) which Patriots running back is the better DFS play. (Click for audio link.)

Two teams with very strong offensive lines, a lot of play-action passes, and trouble stopping the run. Youth will take on experience, both at the quarterback position and the head coach position. The closest Super Bowl matchup we've ever measured using weighted DVOA. Where does each team have an advantage when the Los Angeles Rams take on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII?

Check out links to the first-ever Football Outsiders/EdjSports Super Bowl pregame show live stream! (Click for links.)

The new Off The Charts football podcast reviews the conference championship games. We talk about the defensive focus of the NFC Championship, and we have some ideas to improve replay review. Then we give out some season awards for the best individual games and seasons using both SIS and FO stats. (Click for audio link.)

Hold that shootout narrative for a moment! Over the last three months, the New Orleans Saints are the one remaining NFL team that could really play good defense. That should lead them to a win over Los Angeles and a trip to Super Bowl LIII. But what if Drew Brees struggles like he has since the start of December? And what will the presence of Aqib Talib really mean for slowing down the unguardable Michael Thomas?

The new Off The Charts football podcast goes in depth on the conference championship games. We start with a big conversation on whether distinct home-field advantages for different teams in different years are "real" or not. Plus: we discuss how Eli Apple changed the way the Saints brought pressure, how the Rams win on the ground with scheme, and how each team this week will set up its cornerback coverage. (Click for audio link.)

Big games for the No. 2 seeds mean our weighted DVOA ratings are now grouped very close together going into the conference championships.