Aaron Schatz's blog

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams remain on top of the DVOA ratings, far ahead of the rest of the league. But below these top teams, there's a lot of movement up and down. What on earth are the Denver Broncos doing at No. 5? We explain. Plus: Buffalo is now the worst offense in DVOA history.

Well, the Cowboys finally got the receiver they needed, but boy did they pay a lot for him. Dallas will send a first-round pick to Oakland for a year and a half of Amari Cooper. Cooper was a Pro Bowl wide receiver his first two years, but his numbers have fallen to 70 catches for 960 yards and eight touchdowns in the last season and a half (20 games). That's still pretty good, and he'll be the best receiver on the Cowboys, but he's getting out of a bad situation and into... another bad situation, at least as far as offensive scheme?

Well, that's one way to get more carries for Nick Chubb and his (very limited sample size) 10.8 yards per carry. Carlos Hyde is apparently going to Jacksonville for a fifth-round pick. This also would suggest Leonard Fournette's hamstring injury is more of a long-term problem and he's not coming back anytime soon.

Could the days of constantly running David Johnson straight into a pile of defenders be over? The Cardinals fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy this morning, replacing him with Byron Leftwich. It's the second straight season that McCoy has been fired in the middle of a season; the Broncos fired him halfway through last year. Leftwich is a Bruce Arians disciple, so the hope here is that we'll get a more exciting Cardinals offense that a) uses Johnson smarter and b) throws downfield more often.

We start this week's podcast by playing "Real or Fake" about the Chargers, Bears, Seahawks, Eagles, and Panthers. Then game previews of Week 7's most important games: Texans-Jaguars, Cowboys-Redskins, and Chiefs-Bengals. (Click for audio link.)

Football Outsiders' preseason projections had eight of the top 12 teams coming out of the NFC. Yet six of those teams are now 3-2-1 or worse. What are their chances for rebounding and getting into the postseason? You may be surprised by the relative odds for Green Bay and Minnesota in particular.

This week's ESPN Upset Watch looks at how the Jets can use their improved defense to take down the Minnesota Vikings at home. Cover Watch looks at the Giants and Falcons on Monday Night Football.

In close games, DVOA doesn't look at wins and losses, which is how the Chiefs can take over the No. 1 spot from the Rams despite a close loss. The secret: strength of schedule and special teams. Plus, more of a look at the incredibly bad Buffalo offense and the surprisingly good Buffalo defense.

This week's ESPN+ Upset Watch looks at how the Chiefs can beat the Patriots: Patrick Mahomes needs to perform under pressure and the Chiefs have to figure out how to improve their run defense. Cover Watch looks at Arizona at Minnesota.

Among the subjects discussed on this week's Off The Charts podcast: What is the real difference between James Conner and Le'Veon Bell in the Steelers offense? Are the Atlanta Falcons cooked? Why have so many NFC teams underwhelmed this year? Plus, previews of the Chiefs-Patriots, Ravens-Titans, and Bengals-Steelers games for Week 6.