Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

Complete Failures

Quarterbacks are judged on their completion percentage, but not every complete pass is a successful play. Introducing a new statistic that tells which teams padded their numbers with short passes, failed third down conversions, and the dreaded reception for a loss of yardage.

You Say Tomato, I Say Future Pro Bowler

At this point, we all know that NFL draft report cards are a bit silly, and that you can't truly judge a draft until those players have been in the league for a couple of years. So instead of a report card, Aaron presents a report about report cards. He's examined eight different sets of draft grades to find out which teams caused the most disagreement among the pundits.

Pass Defense: Tight Ends, Backs, and Slot Receivers

Two weeks ago, we looked at how defenses did against number one receivers compared to number two receivers. Here's part two of that article, examining how defenses fared in 2003 against the opposition's other receivers. Discover the strange magic of the Indianapolis nickel package, San Diego's weapon against the Chiefs, and the secret Achilles heel of the New England pass defense.

Pass Defense: Easy as One, Two, Three

Say it loud, it's back and proud. Did ya miss DVOA over the last few weeks? Did ya? Today, the first of two part articles breaking down defensive performance against different types of receivers. Which teams do the best job against the other team's studs... and which teams do the best job against the men considered "number twos?" There's reason for Ty Law to gloat, and Champ Bailey too, but who the heck is Charles Tillman? And what kind of defensive measure could be led by Minnesota, San Francisco, and Kansas City?

The Misunderstood Rams

Football Outsiders' DVOA statistics say that the Rams had an average offense in 2003, and the second-best defense in football. Huh? Aren't the Rams an offensive juggernaut? Aaron goes through the season game by game to show how the Rams' 12-4 season was driven by the Most Ignored Show on Turf, the St. Louis D.

2003 Schedule: The Rich Get Richer

No, not an article from the Dennis Kucinich campaign website, but an analysis of the strange phenomenon that was the 2003 NFL schedule. Our schedule strength rankings say that all the best teams had easy schedules, and all the worst teams had hard schedules. We thought that was strange too, until we looked at 2003 strength of schedule using just regular old wins and losses.

2002 and 2003 DVOA Ratings Refined

A review of changes to how DVOA ratings are computed, including a new improved baseline that combines 2002 and 2003 plays and changes to the importance of special teams.

Random Super Bowl Thoughts

A few comments from one psyched Pats fan. Did Football Outsiders have an effect on the officials in this game, or did they go insane on their own? Who (or what) was the true MVP of this game? Plus, some notes on what we'll be publishing at Football Outsiders in the offseason. Trust us, we'll still be here.

Super Bowl XXXVIII Preview

All the Football Outsiders stats you need to know what to look for in the big game. Numbers from both the regular season and the playoffs. More commentary than ever before. More in-depth analysis of Carolina's recent improvements, and how New England can counter those improvements. A look at New England's recent success in a place you won't expect. Plus, a special Super Bowl extra: Keys to beating each offense from Jim Schwartz, defensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans.

The Two Carolinas

North Carolina, come on and raise up! Has Aaron been completely wrong about the Panthers this entire season? Or are they just an 8-8 team on a hot streak? Or is the answer something completely different? And what's with that John Edwards guy?