Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

Week 4 Team Efficiency Ratings

With the top two teams on bye, no movement on top of the chart, but there's plenty below. Carolina's performance begins to match their record, and so does Jacksonville's. And it's a happy day in St. Louis when Arizona comes to town. Aaron explains it all for the math-phobic, and gives a list of this year's top five QB games so far. Payton vs. New Orleans isn't number one?

How Many Points is a Turnover Worth?

How many points should the offense expect to score, depending on their field position? The answers within, including discussion of The Most Important Thing We've Learned So Far (TM) and the dreaded question of "field goal or go for it?" Plus, graphs galore. Don't miss the Happy Turnover Smile-Time Hour!

4 comments, Last at 08 Nov 2011, 2:09pm by bravehoptoad

Press Check: Second Down Rushes After First Down Incompletes

In today's Tuesday Morning Quarterback column on, Gregg Easterbrook introduces the Immutable Law of "Clang on First Bars Run on Second." Is he right? A look at the 2002 data says it ain't necessarily so.

Week 3 Team Efficiency Ratings

Tampa Bay narrowly edges out Seattle for #1 as Aaron introduces a slightly reworked and more accurate VOA formula. Plus, what's the deal with Jacksonville?

Press Check: 100-Yard Rushers and Wins

Two NFL writers say that Week 2 proved that rushing is the key to victory. We say that one week does not a season make.

Week 2 Team Efficiency Ratings

Seattle is #1. Now with expanded commentary featuring actual sentences for those who are allergic to numbers. Aaron explains why Jacksonville and New England are mirror images, why Carolina is the worst 2-0 team in the NFL, and why Moe Williams and Onterrio Smith may have had a more valuable rushing day than Jamal Lewis.

In Focus: NFC North

The final division in our eight-part series analyzing our new stats. Moe Williams' consistency, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila's weakness, and more...

In Focus: AFC North

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. The NFL says the Cincinnati Bengals ranked #17 in defense; we say they ranked #31. The difference demonstrates how our stats seek to remove situational bias. Plus: Tommy Maddox, fluke or not? We look at past players who have come back after long periods away from the NFL.

Falling Short of the Stick

How angry do you get when the coach of your favorite team calls an 8-yard pass on 3rd-and-9? Ever wonder how often your team does that? We've actually found a stat where Arizona is the best team in the NFL...

In Focus: AFC South

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Does Eddie George really get the tough yards when it counts? Why should teams save their best defensive plays to show Payton Manning after halftime?