Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

In Focus: NFC South

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. How screwed are the Falcons by Michael Vick's injury? How amazing is the Bucs defense, and what is their secret weakness?

In Focus: AFC West

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Which side of the great Denver o-line is best? Which AFC West offense specializes in plays up the middle, and which AFC West offense avoids the middle?

Quarterbacks and Favorite Receivers

Some teams showed completely different pass offenses with two different quarterbacks in 2002. If one of those quarterbacks is now out of the picture, what does that mean for those teams and their offensive efficiency... not to mention your fantasy draft? (No, Vick is not included, since the only WR that had a different value with Doug Johnson was Shawn Jefferson, no longer in Atlanta.)

In Focus: NFC East

Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Is Jeremy Shockey really an average TE? Are NFC East QBs headed for trouble this year? What makes Philly's rush D so good?

Pythagoras Grades the Coaches

Which coaches win the close ones? We rank the last 20 years of coaches based on the ability to win more games than expected based on point differential. The top coaches have something unexpected in common... and the coach at the bottom is even more surprising.

3 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2007, 2:45am by Len

Do 2003 Schedule Changes Affect Fantasy Football Value?

Which players face easier or harder fantasy schedules this year? Do schedule changes year to year affect fantasy value more than real value, or vice versa?

Pythagoras on the Gridiron

In baseball, the Pythgorean Theorem says runs scored and allowed can predict a team's record. Does it work for football too? You bet, and it says some interesting things about teams that don't match their predictions. Pay attention, Chiefs fans.

The Establishment Clause

It has always been the conventional wisdom of pro football: establish the run. Winning teams run early. Let's see how conventional wisdom stacks up against our master statistician...

5 comments, Last at 08 Mar 2013, 4:18pm by math 14.99

Stacey Mack Daddy

If you learned that a running back with fewer than 100 carries ranked as one of the NFL's top offensive players of 2002, you would probably want to know who he is...

In Focus: AFC East

Beginning our division-by-division look at what our new statistics say about each NFL team. How good is Travis Henry? What is New England's biggest weakness?