Founder of Football Outsiders
Creator of DVOA and DYAR
Compared to Bill James by The New York Times Magazine, and attributed as a “founding father of football analytics” by The Ringer, AARON SCHATZis the creator and Editor-in-Chief of Football Outsiders. Aaron is also the creator of most of the original statistical methods (DVOA, DYAR) used in NFL analysis on this website, as well as Lead Writer, Editor, and Statistician on the book series Football Outsiders Almanac (published since 2009). He also writes for ESPN.com and ESPN+, and appears weekly during the NFL season on the Off The Charts podcast. During the 2011 season, he was a regular panelist on the ESPN2 show Numbers Never Lie. Before Football Outsiders, Aaron spent five years as a radio host at WBRU Providence and WKRO Daytona Beach, and three years as the writer and producer of the Lycos 50, the Internet's foremost authority on the people, places, and things that are searched online. He has written on sports, politics, and taxes for a number of publications including The New Republic, The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Slate, The American Prospect, and the Boston Phoenix. Aaron resides in Worcester, Massachusetts and yes, is a New England Patriots fan.
Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. The NFL says the Cincinnati Bengals ranked #17 in defense; we say they ranked #31. The difference demonstrates how our stats seek to remove situational bias. Plus: Tommy Maddox, fluke or not? We look at past players who have come back after long periods away from the NFL.
How angry do you get when the coach of your favorite team calls an 8-yard pass on 3rd-and-9? Ever wonder how often your team does that? We've actually found a stat where Arizona is the best team in the NFL...
Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Does Eddie George really get the tough yards when it counts? Why should teams save their best defensive plays to show Payton Manning after halftime?
All four NFC West teams have the same problem, one they share with a lot of other teams. Why do so many offenses rush more in one direction even though they gain far more yards per carry in the other direction? Do coaches just have no idea about team strengths? Plus, more notes on what our new stats say about the Cards, Rams, Niners, and Seahawks.
Continuing our division-by-division look at our new stats. Which side of the great Denver o-line is best? Which AFC West offense specializes in plays up the middle, and which AFC West offense avoids the middle?
Some teams showed completely different pass offenses with two different quarterbacks in 2002. If one of those quarterbacks is now out of the picture, what does that mean for those teams and their offensive efficiency... not to mention your fantasy draft? (No, Vick is not included, since the only WR that had a different value with Doug Johnson was Shawn Jefferson, no longer in Atlanta.)
Which coaches win the close ones? We rank the last 20 years of coaches based on the ability to win more games than expected based on point differential. The top coaches have something unexpected in common... and the coach at the bottom is even more surprising.