Aaron Schatz's blog

At ESPN+ Chalk, here's a look at which teams are offering strong value when compared to Vegas odds, according to Football Outsiders' playoff odds simulations.

The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers leap up the DVOA rankings, but they're still behind the current big three of the Rams, Bears, and Chiefs. Plus, more on just how high-powered this year's offensive environment has been, and further exploration of why our Miami Dolphins ratings are so confusing.

More great new metrics coming out of the NFL's Next Gen Stats tracking software. These come from ESPN, which now has a deal with the league to use the Next Gen Stats. They've got metrics measuring how often a pass-rusher gets past the blocker in less than 2.5 seconds, and how often a pass-blocker can hold up his block for more than 2.5 seconds. This gives us a more objective measure of pass pressure than what outside groups (including us) have tried to do with charting pressure rates.

This week's Off The Charts podcast goes into the charting on how Patrick Mahomes' role in the Kansas City Chiefs offense differs from what Alex Smith was doing last year, plus previews of the most important games of the week: Bengals-Dolphins, Vikings-Eagles, Saints-Redskins, and Falcons-Steelers. (Click for audio link.)

Here's a closer look at the FO playoff odds on ESPN+, with notes on how they've shifted and why certain teams have defied expectations. Included: How the Rams are running away with things, just what 3-1 and an easy schedule can do for teams such as Miami and Chicago, and why Houston is the 1-3 team most likely to climb back into the playoff race.

This week's ESPN Upset Watch looks at how the Cardinals can get their first win against San Francisco. Josh Rosen needs to play well, look left, and use David Johnson in the passing game. Plus, Cover Watch has Washington in New Orleans.

The Los Angeles Rams are still No. 1 in our DVOA ratings, dominating the league with one of the best offenses we've ever measured. Week 4 introduces opponent adjustments into DVOA, so we look at how schedules have impacted team and player performance so far. Learn why Eli Manning had a very different September than Saquon Barkley.

Today's ESPN feature column looks at the Miami Dolphins. What's going right, and how has that led them to rank No. 2 in DVOA through three weeks? What parts of their performance are sustainable, and what parts are not?

This week's Off The Charts podcast goes deep into the charting on Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Jameis Winston, plus extensive previews of the most important games of the week: Steelers-Ravens, Bucs-Bears, and Dolphins-Patriots. (Click for audio link)

This week's ESPN+ Upset Watch looks at how the Cincinnati Bengals can go into Atlanta and take down the Falcons. It probably involves using a lot of Giovani Bernard against the injured parts of the Falcons defense. Plus, in Cover Watch, can Miami continue to play better than New England?