Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

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ESPN: Best Value Against Vegas Odds
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ESPN: Best Value Against Vegas Odds

At ESPN+ Chalk, here's a look at which teams are offering strong value when compared to Vegas odds, according to Football Outsiders' playoff odds simulations.

Week 5 DVOA Ratings
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Week 5 DVOA Ratings

The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers leap up the DVOA rankings, but they're still behind the current big three of the Rams, Bears, and Chiefs. Plus, more on just how high-powered this year's offensive environment has been, and further exploration of why our Miami Dolphins ratings are so confusing.

80 comments, Last at 15 Oct 2018, 3:59pm by Richie
Better Pass-Rusher and Pass-Blocker Stats

Better Pass-Rusher and Pass-Blocker Stats

More great new metrics coming out of the NFL's Next Gen Stats tracking software. These come from ESPN, which now has a deal with the league to use the Next Gen Stats. They've got metrics measuring how often a pass-rusher gets past the blocker in less than 2.5 seconds, and how often a pass-blocker can hold up his block for more than 2.5 seconds. This gives us a more objective measure of pass pressure than what outside groups (including us) have tried to do with charting pressure rates.

4 comments, Last at 07 Oct 2018, 11:38am by Chuckc
Off The Charts Podcast: October 4
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Off The Charts Podcast: October 4

This week's Off The Charts podcast goes into the charting on how Patrick Mahomes' role in the Kansas City Chiefs offense differs from what Alex Smith was doing last year, plus previews of the most important games of the week: Bengals-Dolphins, Vikings-Eagles, Saints-Redskins, and Falcons-Steelers. (Click for audio link.)

6 comments, Last at 12 Dec 2018, 6:47am by Jimmy1982
ESPN: Playoff Odds After Week 4
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ESPN: Playoff Odds After Week 4

Here's a closer look at the FO playoff odds on ESPN+, with notes on how they've shifted and why certain teams have defied expectations. Included: How the Rams are running away with things, just what 3-1 and an easy schedule can do for teams such as Miami and Chicago, and why Houston is the 1-3 team most likely to climb back into the playoff race.

ESPN Upset Watch: Cardinals-49ers
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ESPN Upset Watch: Cardinals-49ers

This week's ESPN Upset Watch looks at how the Cardinals can get their first win against San Francisco. Josh Rosen needs to play well, look left, and use David Johnson in the passing game. Plus, Cover Watch has Washington in New Orleans.

1 comment, Last at 04 Oct 2018, 1:27pm by justanothersteve
Week 4 DVOA Ratings
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Week 4 DVOA Ratings

The Los Angeles Rams are still No. 1 in our DVOA ratings, dominating the league with one of the best offenses we've ever measured. Week 4 introduces opponent adjustments into DVOA, so we look at how schedules have impacted team and player performance so far. Learn why Eli Manning had a very different September than Saquon Barkley.

50 comments, Last at 06 Oct 2018, 11:14pm by usernaim250
ESPN: Are Dolphins For Real?
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ESPN: Are Dolphins For Real?

Today's ESPN feature column looks at the Miami Dolphins. What's going right, and how has that led them to rank No. 2 in DVOA through three weeks? What parts of their performance are sustainable, and what parts are not?

2 comments, Last at 01 Oct 2018, 4:07am by RobotBoy
Off The Charts Podcast: September 27

Off The Charts Podcast: September 27

This week's Off The Charts podcast goes deep into the charting on Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Jameis Winston, plus extensive previews of the most important games of the week: Steelers-Ravens, Bucs-Bears, and Dolphins-Patriots. (Click for audio link)

ESPN Upset Watch: Bengals-Falcons
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ESPN Upset Watch: Bengals-Falcons

This week's ESPN+ Upset Watch looks at how the Cincinnati Bengals can go into Atlanta and take down the Falcons. It probably involves using a lot of Giovani Bernard against the injured parts of the Falcons defense. Plus, in Cover Watch, can Miami continue to play better than New England?

1 comment, Last at 27 Sep 2018, 1:34pm by DrunkenOne