Aaron Schatz's blog

The Kansas City Chiefs finish the year on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and rank among the best offenses we've ever tracked. On the flip side are the Arizona Cardinals, in distant last place as one of the worst offenses we've ever tracked. But there are also plenty of interesting stories in between.

This week on the Off The Charts football podcast, discuss Justin Herbert's decision not to enter the NFL and ask the question "Could Nick Foles really be better than Carson Wentz?" Then previews of three important Week 17 games: Indianapolis at Tennessee, Chicago at Minnesota, and Cleveland at Baltimore. (Click for audio link.)

Kansas City and New Orleans are now neck-and-neck in weighted DVOA, with the Saints as the hottest team in football over the last six weeks. A look at DVOA just since Week 11 shows which other teams are red hot right now, including Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Cleveland.

This week on the Off The Charts football podcast, we look at the Patriots without Josh Gordon and review their loss to Pittsburgh, then we look forward to the biggest games of this weekend, starting with a pair of Saturday night contests: Washington at Tennessee and Baltimore at the Los Angeles Chargers. (Click for audio link.)

Over on ESPN+, I take a look at Tom Brady's surprising numbers. He's been the best quarterback in the league since Week 12, which puts his season totals right in line with what he did in 2014 and 2015. Where was Brady having problems early in the year, and where is he still having issues?

This week's Upset Watch points out that the Jaguars are not as bad as their record, and their defense is still pretty good. That gives them a good shot to end Miami's slim playoff hopes on Sunday. Cover Watch looks at Josh Allen's improvement and the Patriots' troubles with scrambling quarterbacks.

What happened to our historic season of offense? Defenses have been winning the day since the start of December, especially in New Orleans where the offense is struggling and the defense is surging. The Saints move up to No. 3 in DVOA and take over as the Super Bowl favorites in our playoff odds report.

This week on the Off The Charts football podcast, we do a review of the Chargers' big comeback against the Chiefs and then preview three big games of the upcoming weekend: Miami at Minnesota, New England at Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia at the Los Angeles Rams. (Click for audio link.)

This week's Upset Watch looks at what the Chargers need to do to go on the road and win in Kansas City. They match up well against Travis Kelce, but can they stop Tyreek Hill from burning them deep again? Cover Watch looks at Carolina's desperate need for a win against New Orleans.

Chicago's big win over the Rams moves the Bears into position as a historically dominant defense while also moving the Chargers up in DVOA to set up DVOA Bowl XIX this Thursday night. Plus, in-depth on the Rams' record-setting offensive line season, and why DVOA isn't as high as conventional wisdom on the Dallas Cowboys.