Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Aaron Schatz's blog

Week 3 DVOA Ratings
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Week 3 DVOA Ratings

The Los Angeles Rams are still on top of our DVOA ratings, followed by the other two undefeated teams, Miami and Kansas City. We look closer at how the Chiefs rank among the best offensive starts ever, and just how much a two-game lead means for Miami in the playoff odds.

54 comments, Last at 28 Sep 2018, 1:35pm by Aaron Schatz
How Much Each QB Matters to the Spread

How Much Each QB Matters to the Spread

Interesting article where ESPN Chalk asked the Westgate how much each starting quarterback would be worth to the line if he were injured. Aaron Rodgers is the most, at 10 points. Some of the interesting results: I'm surprised how low the Saints are here, as much as I love Teddy Bridgewater. I just figure Drew Brees is worth more than just 2 points. I also wonder what they would have said about the difference between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston if they had been asked two weeks ago instead of right now.

1 comment, Last at 22 Sep 2018, 7:11am by Raiderfan
Off The Charts Podcast: September 20

Off The Charts Podcast: September 20

Thursday afternoon means a brand-new edition of the Off The Charts podcast, with Matt Manocherian of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders. This week we discuss the best routes to run against Cover-3, review Week 2, and preview the most important games of Week 3 including Atlanta-New Orleans, Tennessee-Jacksonville, and Green Bay-Washington.

ESPN Upset Watch: Redskins-Packers
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ESPN Upset Watch: Redskins-Packers

One of the little secrets of the NFL the last couple years: Washington is not a bad team, just a mediocre one. And with better red zone performance, mediocrity might be enough to upset the Green Bay Packers at home.

2 comments, Last at 20 Sep 2018, 2:58pm by Aaron Schatz
Week 2 DVOA Ratings
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Week 2 DVOA Ratings

The Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs are 1-2 in the latest DVOA ratings, but the most surprising unit early in the season is the Miami Dolphins defense.

58 comments, Last at 20 Sep 2018, 4:03pm by alan frankel
Off The Charts Podcast: September 13
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Off The Charts Podcast: September 13

Thursday afternoon means a brand-new edition of the Off The Charts podcast. This week we discuss why we hate wide receiver screens on third-and-long, how much we can learn from the Jets' Week 1 dominance, and how important the Chiefs win over the Chargers was. Plus previews of Vikings-Packers, Chiefs-Steelers, and Patriots-Jaguars. (Click for audio link.)

ESPN Upset Watch: Seahawks-Bears
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ESPN Upset Watch: Seahawks-Bears

New on ESPN+, a look at what the Seahawks have to do to upset the Bears on Monday night. Russell Wilson is going to get pressured; the good news is that he's one of the league's best quarterbacks under pressure, with surprising consistency. Plus, Cover Watch: Detroit at San Francisco.

3 comments, Last at 14 Sep 2018, 12:00pm by Cythammer
Week 1 DVOA Ratings
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Week 1 DVOA Ratings

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets! Yes, Gang Green has a rare spot on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings after a huge Week 1 win over Detroit. You should also learn to spell "Ravens," because Baltimore is right behind them.

72 comments, Last at 14 Sep 2018, 10:00pm by morgzord
Week 1 Open Game Discussion
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Week 1 Open Game Discussion

Here is this week's Football Outsiders open game discussion thread, the place to discuss all the games all weekend long, starting with the kickoff contest Thursday night between Atlanta and Philadelphia and continuing through the Monday Night Football doubleheader, Jets at Lions and Rams at Raiders.

149 comments, Last at 13 Sep 2018, 3:01pm by PTORaven
SITE NEWS: Football Outsiders Returns to Madden NFL 19

SITE NEWS: Football Outsiders Returns to Madden NFL 19

It's time to share the details on our involvement with Madden NFL 19 Ultimate Team and Madden NFL Overdrive for mobile devices during this upcoming season. (Click to read more.)