Aaron Schatz's blog

Former FO writer J.J Cooper is still at his day job over at Baseball America, and he looks here into the question of whether Kyler Murray should play baseball or football. Basically, compared to someone like Jeff Samardzija, playing the quarterback position changes the numbers significantly. Quarterbacks get paid more than other positions, and they last longer. So Cooper's estimate is that Murray would make more money and make it sooner if he declared for the NFL draft instead of joining the Oakland A's after Oklahoma's season is over.

On ESPN+ a look at each team's odds of winning the wild card and what needs to happen for each team to get into the playoffs. It's looking pretty good for the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Chargers, but the other two wild cards are very up in the air.

This week's Upset Watch looks at the huge Dallas-Philadelphia game on Sunday. What do the Eagles need to do to score the upset and become NFC East favorites? A lot of play-action and some better tackling would help. Cover Watch looks at Pittsburgh's trip to Oakland.

The Chargers and Broncos rise to give us three AFC West teams in our top five. Plus, a further look at Baltimore's three-game winning streak and playoff odds in the NFC East with a huge game between Philadelphia and Dallas this coming Sunday.

The Off The Charts podcast returns after a week off with a look at Lamar Jackson vs. Joe Flacco, our take on the benching of Blake Bortles, and previews of this weekend's big games: Vikings at Patriots, Chargers at Steelers, and Redskins at Eagles. (Click for audio link.)

This week's Upset Watch looks at the Los Angeles Chargers going on the road to Pittsburgh. The Chargers will need to solve their weakness against deep passes, and they'll want to spread things out against a Steelers defense that isn't as strong against shotgun spread formations. Cover Watch looks at the Jets at the Titans, two very inconsistent teams.

This week, we look at offenses and defenses that have improved over the last few weeks, including Minnesota and the No. 1 defense in the league since Week 6. Plus, what would our Super Bowl odds look like if DVOA didn't have Kansas City rated so much better than other advanced metrics?

Close loss or not, DVOA is ready to ride or die with the Kansas City Chiefs. In fact, Chiefs-Rams was one of a number of games this week where the losing team ended up with a higher rating than the winning team.

A special early Off The Charts podcast looks asks how much of a win the Le'Veon Bell situation has been for "running backs don't matter" Twitter. Then previews of this week's great prime-time games: Packers at Seahawks, Vikings at Bears, and Chiefs at Rams. (Click for audio link.)

A new column for ESPN+ Chalk with a review of teams where that Football Outsiders odds show value compared to consensus Las Vegas odds. Teams highlighted include Washington, Kansas City, and Chicago.