Compared to Bill James by The New York Times Magazine, and attributed as a “founding father of football analytics” by The Ringer, AARON SCHATZ is the creator and Editor-in-Chief of Football Outsiders. Aaron is also the creator of most of the original statistical methods (DVOA, DYAR) used in NFL analysis on this website, as well as Lead Writer, Editor, and Statistician on the book series Football Outsiders Almanac (published since 2009). He also writes for ESPN.com and ESPN+, and appears weekly during the NFL season on the Off The Charts podcast. During the 2011 season, he was a regular panelist on the ESPN2 show Numbers Never Lie. Before Football Outsiders, Aaron spent five years as a radio host at WBRU Providence and WKRO Daytona Beach, and three years as the writer and producer of the Lycos 50, the Internet's foremost authority on the people, places, and things that are searched online. He has written on sports, politics, and taxes for a number of publications including The New Republic, The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Slate, The American Prospect, and the Boston Phoenix. Aaron resides in Worcester, Massachusetts and yes, is a New England Patriots fan.
So, uh, congratulations Panthers fans? The Jets are dealing Sam Darnold to the Panthers for two 2022 picks (second and fourth rounds) and a 2021 sixth-round pick. Now's the time to truly find out the value of a coaching staff and the surrounding parts.
Our new and improved methodology for evaluating quarterback prospects in the NFL draft agrees with the scouts: Trevor Lawrence is the clear favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Jaguars. While the consensus says that the field behind Lawrence is muddled, however, our formula spots an obvious choice for the Jets at No. 2.
Here's another look at scrambles as part of DVOA. Houston and Seattle's running games would look a lot better if we still considered scrambles as running plays, but Tampa Bay's run defense would not look as good.
Big draft news! Miami is trading the No. 3 overall pick to San Francisco for the No. 12 pick, a 2021 third-round compensatory pick, and first-round picks in both 2022 and 2023. Is the next step for San Francisco to choose a new young quarterback and deal Jimmy Garoppolo? Is Handsome Jimmy G.
Drew Brees announced his retirement with social media posts today, on the 15th anniversary of the day he originally signed with the New Orleans Saints in 2006 free agency. Brees retires as the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards, second in passing touchdowns and completion rate.
Some quarterback news this morning.
The Cowboys are signing Dak Prescott to a new contract: four years, $160 million with $126 million guaranteed. There's a $66 million signing bonus with a no-trade clause and a no-franchise tag provision. $40 million average per year will rank second in annual value behind Patrick Mahomes.
Washington dominated the 1983 NFL season... until they ran into the Los Angeles Raiders in the Super Bowl. Plus: another great San Francisco year, Dan Marino's outstanding rookie campaign, and perhaps the strangest year of field goal kicking in modern history.
The deadline for announcing franchise tags is Tuesday, March 9. Today the first franchise tag was announced. We'll keep track of the players who have been tagged and discuss them in this thread. (Click for more.)
J.J. Watt has picked his new team, and it's not one of the teams that had been rumored. Watt will head to Arizona for a two-year, $31 million contract with $23 million guaranteed.
